‘There’s not one right way to do it’: Why paying goalies is so complicated in today’s NHL
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Emily Kaplan, ESPN
As the New York Rangers and Igor Shesterkin‘s camp negotiate for a new contract, the goalie doesn’t want to talk about what’s at stake — though everyone else around the league does. According to sources, Shesterkin declined an eight-year, $88 million offer at the start of the season, which would have made him the highest paid goalie in NHL history.
“He’s special,” Detroit Red Wings coach Derek Lalonde said on Oct. 14, when Shesterkin stopped 31 shots in a 4-1 win. “I can see why he turned down the 88 [million dollars]. Good agent.”
Five nights later, Shesterkin was even better, turning away 34 of 35 shots against the high-powered Toronto Maple Leafs.
“You can see why he’s going to be the highest-paid goalie in the league,” Toronto’s veteran goalie, Anthony Stolarz, said after the game. “Hats off to him.”
Even after Shesterkin allowed four goals through two periods against the rival Washington Capitals on Oct. 29, his opponents were feeling stymied. Said Capitals assistant Scott Allen ahead of the third period: “You see why he’s asking for $13 million, or whatever it is by now.”
The entire league seems to agree that Shesterkin, 28, is among its top goalies and deserves to be paid as such. But how much should a goalie make in today’s NHL? That might be one of the toughest questions to answer in the league.
JEREMY SWAYMAN AND the Boston Bruins ended a summerlong standoff when he signed an eight-year, $66 million contract ($8.25 million in average annual value) ahead of the season opener. Shortly after, the Dallas Stars’ Jake Oettinger signed an identical deal. They both match what the New York Islanders and Ilya Sorokin agreed to in 2023, and are roughly around what the NHL’s current save percentage leader Connor Hellebuyck ($8.5 million AAV) signed for in 2023 on a seven-year deal.
Starting next season, eight goalies will make at least $7 million. By contrast, 107 skaters will be at or above that mark — with 11 making at least $11 million.
“I think we’re in a decent place, [goalies] are now making great money, but it’s also not superstar money,” one starting goaltender said. “It just shows you how the league views our position. GMs don’t want to make goalies the highest-paid players, but I think lots of guys could make a good argument.”
Star forwards play roughly a third of the game. Star defensemen, at best, skate for half. Their performance can vary based on linemates, matchups and a variety of other nuances. A goaltender is in net (practically) the entire 60 minutes, alone in the crease. But even as it is the most isolated position, front office executives say goaltending is the hardest to evaluate — and therefore compensate.
“Agents want to do apples to oranges comparisons when it comes to goaltenders,” one front office executive said. “We have comps for top centers. Comps for top-four defensemen. Comps for goaltenders are way more complicated.”
Carolina GM Eric Tulsky, who comes from an analytics background, explained how slim the margins are.
“A lot of what makes goaltending hard is that a guy who stops 92% of shots is one of the best goalies in the world,” Tulsky said. “A guy who stops 91% is kind of average. And the difference between those is not very big. You watch a guy face 500 or 1,000 shots, and he might stop 91 or 92% by chance. It takes a lot of time to know for sure that this is a guy that is going to stop 91 or 92% day after day.”
The core argument for not giving goalie superstar contracts tend to center around this uncertainty, posed by one front office executive: “How many mega goalie contracts age well?”
Plus, there’s proof of concept that it’s not always necessary to have one goalie on a big contract.
The Florida Panthers just won a Stanley Cup with the league’s highest-paid active goaltender, Sergei Bobrovsky ($10 million cap hit). Florida spends more on goaltending than any other team. Backup Spencer Knight makes $4.5 million while Florida boasts the league’s only “Goaltending Excellence Department” — which includes four coaches/executives dedicated to the position.
But over the past 10 years, there have also been two Stanley Cup winners with starting goaltenders making the league minimum (Jordan Binnington in 2018, Matt Murray in 2016) while the Golden Knights won in 2023 with Adin Hill earning just $2.175 million, which represented less than 3% of their salary cap.
The theme? “There’s not one right way to do it,” Blackhawks GM Kyle Davidson said. “I don’t think there’s a hard and fast way anyone thinks about spending on goaltending. It probably just depends on what you have on your team.”
IN SURVEYING 12 high-ranking team executives about philosophies in paying goaltending, a common theme emerged, summed up by one GM: “The value of a goaltender is based on how your team is built, rather than his talent.”
One front office executive believed that “if you put Andrei Vasilevskiy on 10 different teams, you’d have 10 different save percentages.”
Most executives deferred to team construction. One GM cited Vegas as a team that was strong down the middle and had an excellent defensive core. “They can get away with average goaltending,” he said.
But poor goaltending can derail a team quickly. “Your 5-on-5 game might be good,” Predators GM Barry Trotz said. “But if you have weak goaltending, that doesn’t allow you to go on any streaks.”
The biggest issue for most front offices is projection on goalie development. It’s why a team like Philadelphia, looking for its goaltender of the future, is hedging its bets. The Flyers are carrying three goalies aged 22-27, and drafted another two in 2023.
“I think people have the idea that goalies peak really late,” one GM said. “I’m not sure I believe that. I don’t think it takes time for the goalie to develop; I think it takes time for teams to say, ‘Wait, this goalie is really good.'”
By then, the goalie might be past his physical prime, hence the risks of a long-term deal. One front office executive who just signed a goalie to a max term said he’s confident, based on that goalie’s pedigree and work ethic, that years 1-5 will go great. After that, the team might need security to cover for potential decline.
Those in the goaltending union often claim their position is both misunderstood and scapegoated. Some agents said in conversation with front office executives, they’ve heard phrases such as “goaltending is a crapshoot,” or “I don’t understand goaltending.”
“Confidence in a goalie from management can be fleeting,” one high-profile goalie agent said. “There’s not a ton of patience. If the season isn’t going well, pressure is on the goalie right away.”
Ray Petkau, who represents Hellebuyck and several other goalies, said he believes goaltending can be misunderstood by some in the analytics community. For example, several front office executives cited Goals Saved Above Expected as a go-to stat for evaluation. Petkau said that one doesn’t tell the whole story.
“If a goal is deflected by an opposing player 2 feet in front of the net, it’s assigned X amount of value. But if a shot is deflected off the goalie’s defenseman, that’s not considered the same way by some of the groups providing public analytics information. Some say it averages out over time, but they don’t take into account that some teams have more defensemen who have a habit of blocking off their stick.”
Petkau prefers performance when facing high-danger chances as a stronger stat for evaluation, but that too has variables that can’t be controlled by the goalie. He also said goalies’ strengths should mesh with a team’s needs. For example, if a goalie isn’t great with rush chances, he shouldn’t go to a team that allows a lot.
THE CLIMATE ISN’T going to get any easier for goalies. League average save percentage has dipped in each of the past nine seasons, and we’re trending for the lowest number (.901) since 2005-06. Tulsky sees a trend of offensive creativity, specifically with more East-West movement and an increase in backdoor plays.
“The game’s getting faster, people are getting stronger, and so it all happens that much quicker,” Tulsky said. “When you’re in a position where your job is to react, that makes it much harder.”
Another leaguewide trend: there are now fewer Shesterkins — obvious No. 1 workhorses — and more incidents of goaltending by committee.
From 2010-2019, the league averaged 20.4 goalies per season who started at least 50 games. Over the past three seasons, that number is now 14.3.
Consider the New Jersey Devils, who needed an upgrade in net for this season. GM Tom Fitzgerald determined it was best to get a combination of goaltenders making less than $8 million versus having one make $8 million and another at the league minimum. The Devils’ new tandem is Jacob Markstrom and Jake Allen, both acquired via trade, with their former teams retaining salary.
“Other goalies we looked at, some were going to be free agents,” Fitzgerald said. “You just don’t know what they were going to be priced at with the cap going up.”
Cost certainty is huge in today’s NHL, where everyone knows the salary cap is going up after several stagnant years — but nobody knows exactly by how much and how quickly.
That’s what makes contracts in general difficult right now. Many agents are focused on percentage of the cap. The three highest players this season, Auston Matthews, Nathan MacKinnon and Connor McDavid, are in the 15-16% range. According to sources, the argument by Shesterkin’s camp is that he is the team’s most important player, so he should be the top-paid player on the team. Currently, that’s winger Artemi Panarin at $11.64 million.
The Rangers, in contrast, need to account for future contracts (winger Alexis Lafreniere just resigned at a $7.45 million annual cap hit, and defenseman K’Andre Miller is due). New York can also offer something no other team can: an eighth year. That means if Shesterkin hit the open market, other teams would have to ante up the AAV to match New York’s total value.
Only Vasilevskiy and Bobrovsky have come close to the record $10.5 million AAV Carey Price earned on an eight-year deal, which kicked in during the 2018-19 season, when Price was 31. Price played only two full seasons on the deal. He has been on long-term injured reserve for most of the past three seasons.
Since there are only so many goalie jobs, there are fewer opportunities to reset the market. Hellebuyck could have in 2024, but instead took less to stay in Winnipeg, a place where he felt comfortable and a team he believed could win with.
That’s why the entire league — and specifically the goaltending union — is waiting for resolution on Shesterkin. He could help shape the future of the position — resetting the market for the next generation.
What a week it was in college football: Five AP Top 25 teams lost to unranked opponents, and after No. 6 BYU’s defeat to Kansas, the Big 12 appears to be up for grabs after victories by Colorado and Arizona State.
The Buffaloes and Sun Devils have proved football fans wrong this season as Colorado is tied for the top spot in the Big 12 and Arizona State is a game behind. With both teams on a winning streak, what can they credit for their success?
After a rough start to the season, Billy Napier and Florida have turned things around and the Gators are one win from bowl eligibility. With an upset win over No. 22 LSU, is it time to stop questioning Napier?
Our college football experts break down key storylines and takeaways from Week 12.
Losses might be as important as wins in the CFP committee meeting room
With six new committee members, a new committee chair and a new College Football Playoff executive director, there are a lot of new faces at selection central. Each group is different. Ranking the top 25 teams is a subjective system, and this year’s committee appears to be putting an emphasis on losses — maybe more than in years past.
Who teams lose to and how has always mattered, but it might be more of a factor this year with multiple two-loss teams to sort through. It’s also a big reason why Ohio State is No. 2 and Penn State is No. 4 — close losses to highly-ranked teams. It’s never a good time for a bad loss, but it could mean the difference this year between a first-round bye, a first-round home game — or a seat on the couch. — Heather Dinich
Rivalries matter more than ever
Texas has never viewed Arkansas on par with rival Oklahoma, but Arkansas lives to torment Texas. Three years ago, the No. 15 Longhorns came to Fayetteville and were stomped 40-21. Jubilant Arkansas fans stormed the field.
But returning as conference rivals for the first time since the Razorbacks left the Southwest Conference in 1991 seemed to mean something to No. 3 Texas, too, after a tough 20-10 win over the 5-5 Razorbacks. “It was personal for sure,” senior edge rusher Barryn Sorrell said.
Quinn Ewers sealed the win by running for three yards on fourth-and-2 with 2:14 left. Rather than trying to evade linebacker Larry Worth III, Ewers decided to bull his way over him. “I just tried to put a little statement into it, that’s all,” Ewers said with a smile. “Just the history that these two programs have together, it’s going to be tough.”
Texas joining the SEC reconnected old grudge matches with Texas A&M and Arkansas. The 74,929 who showed up Saturday — the 10th-largest crowd in Arkansas history — threw their Horns Down at every opportunity. With an eight-game SEC schedule, there’s only one permanent rivalry guaranteed per school, and for the Longhorns, that will always be Oklahoma. Texas-Arkansas and Texas-Texas A&M could come and go. When college football is becoming more unrecognizable by the day, regional rivalries should be a priority. — Dave Wilson
Congrats to Colorado and Arizona State for proving us all wrong
It’s probably time to admit we were wrong about Deion Sanders’ Colorado and Kenny Dillingham’s Arizona State in 2024.
OK, maybe not all of us. But as both schools improved to 8-2 on Saturday, a preseason poll from CBS Sports resurfaced that ranked Sanders and Dillingham, respectively, as the 15th- and 16th-best coaches among the Big 12’s 16 football programs. And whether you had either coach/program that low in August, there can’t be many of us who expected either school to be here in Week 12: level alongside Iowa State for second in the Big 12 standings and in line to play at least some kind of role in the College Football Playoff picture over the final weeks of the regular season.
Colorado earned its fourth win in a row and Travis Hunter logged another entry to his Heisman Trophy résumé in a 49-24 win over Utah on Saturday, yet Sanders says the Buffaloes still “haven’t even played our best game.” Meanwhile, Arizona State reached its highest win total since 2021 on Saturday night after storming to a 21-0 first-half lead and holding off No. 16 Kansas State after halftime in a 24-14 road win, fueled by the aerial connection between Sam Leavitt (275 passing yards, three touchdowns) and Jordyn Tyson (12 catches, 176 yards, two touchdowns).
The successes at Colorado and Arizona State are a credit to the respective coaching jobs Sanders and Dillingham are executing. They’re also a credit to the concept that there remain many different paths to winning in a seemingly homogenized era of college football dominated by NIL, the transfer portal and the rest. Through 12 weeks, Colorado and Arizona State represent two of the sport’s great surprises this fall, and there are perhaps no two people more acutely aware of the doubters than the coaches leading this pair of impressive turnarounds in 2024.
“We were a three-win team twice,” Dillingham said Saturday night. “We were under NCAA sanctions. Most head coaches, to be brutally honest, you get fired if you take a job under sanctions. You don’t survive. You’re hired to be fired. That’s the nature of the beast. And right now we’re sitting here at 8-2 and couldn’t be prouder.” — Eli Lederman
South Carolina is clearly the nation’s best three-loss team
Shane Beamer’s team is not part of the logjam atop the SEC. The Gamecocks are not in the College Football Playoff mix, essentially eliminated Oct. 12 when they couldn’t hold a fourth-quarter lead at Alabama or tie the score in the closing minute. But since falling to 3-3 in Tuscaloosa, South Carolina has won four straight and continued to be one of the most consistently compelling squads on Saturdays.
After riding Kyle Kennard and the defense to wins over Oklahoma, Texas A&M and Vanderbilt, South Carolina needed the offense to outlast Missouri, going 70 yards in 47 seconds to score the winning touchdown with 15 seconds left. Redshirt freshman LaNorris Sellers is blossoming into one of the nation’s best young quarterbacks, as he set career highs for passing yards (353) and passing touchdowns (five) against Missouri. South Carolina has defeated three straight AP-ranked opponents for the first time in team history.
“We’re on the right track,” Beamer said. “The young players we have in this program right now, the quarterback, Dylan [Stewart]. You talk about the recruits that are here tonight, the ones that are committed to us. The best days of South Carolina football are right in front of us.”
There will be some what-ifs for the Gamecocks, especially in their losses to LSU and Alabama. But after a 5-7 season last fall, Beamer has recaptured his big-game magic and built a program that no opponent should want to face right now. — Adam Rittenberg
A resolute Billy Napier and his Florida team just keep getting back up
When it starts to go bad for a coach in the SEC, especially one who’s in his third season and has yet to manage a winning record, it’s usually like a two-ton truck cresting over an icy slope.
There’s no stopping the slide.
Even with the recent and dreaded vote of confidence for Florida’s Billy Napier, there are no guarantees about his future. But nobody would have predicted he had any future at Florida two months ago after an ugly home loss to Texas A&M, two weeks removed from a 41-17 beatdown by Miami at home. The speculation late that night was that Napier might be out as early as the next morning.
But he had just enough support in key areas to hang on, and most importantly, the players in his locker room still believed in him. And here we are, with two weeks left in the regular season, and the Gators are one win away from bowl eligibility after taking down LSU 27-16 at home Saturday. Another huge opportunity awaits this weekend when No. 11 Ole Miss visits the Swamp.
The Gators (5-5) have been resilient, just like their coach, and responded from a 49-17 blowout loss at Texas to play one of their most complete games of the season at home against LSU. Simply making a bowl game is hardly the standard at Florida, but the way Napier has kept his team together, continued to develop young quarterback DJ Lagway and gone about his business with accountability, humility and a quiet confidence is proof he deserves a fourth season to show he can get this program to that standard.
It’s time to get behind Napier and quit questioning him. It’s clear the Gators have a talented nucleus of younger players and that those players have their coach’s back. — Chris Low
Louisville … what are you doing?
Stanford vs. Louisville was an inconsequential game that should have flown under the radar, regardless of the result. And while the outcome — a Stanford win that ended a six-game losing streak — was a significant upset, it’s the way it happened that deserves some added attention. It might be the most improbable way a team has lost a game all season. Let’s dive in.
After trailing 35-21 in the fourth quarter, Stanford scored touchdowns with 6:37 left and 45 seconds left to cut the deficit to 35-34. At this point, I thought Stanford coach Troy Taylor, a coach who once went an entire high school season without punting, would go for the win with a 2-point conversion try. He did not. Tie score.
On the ensuing kickoff, Louisville opted against taking the ball at the 25-yard line and returned it to the 19. After a spike, a deep shot, a short pass and another deep shot all fail, Stanford took possession at its 45 with 4 seconds left. Overtime felt inevitable. Wrong.
Stanford completed a 1-yard pass only to be gifted 15 yards by an unsportsmanlike conduct penalty by Louisville, giving the Cardinal a chance to win the game on a 57-yard field goal attempt. Improbable, still. So, what does Louisville do: jumps offside to make the kick easier. And Stanford’s Emmet Kenney took advantage, making a 52-yard field goal as time expired.
An all-time collapse. — Kyle Bonagura
Kennesaw State’s Bohannon shows class on way out
Last weekend, Kennesaw State fired coach Brian Bohannon, who helped build the program from scratch nine years ago, then ushered it from the FCS into the FBS this season. That firing didn’t stop the former FCS Coach of the Year from supporting his players before its game Saturday against Sam Houston.
In a video posted by a Kennesaw State football alum, Bohannon showed up to the team’s pregame walk to the stadium and gave the players hugs and high-fives as they walked by.
The Owls ultimately lost in overtime to fall to 1-9 but showed fight against the Bearkats, who remain in contention for the Conference USA title.
Despite being fired, Bohannon should be revered in Kennesaw for taking the Owls to the FCS playoffs four times, for elevating the program to the FBS — and for the way he graciously exited. — Jake Trotter
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Adam Rittenberg, ESPN Senior Writer
Wisconsin fired offensive coordinator Phil Longo on Sunday, a day after the Badgers’ 16-13 home loss to No. 1 Oregon.
In a statement, Badgers coach Luke Fickell thanked Longo for his two seasons with the program, while adding, “We are not where we need to be and believe this decision is in the best interest of the team.”
Wisconsin ranks 97th nationally in scoring and 102nd in passing while operating an Air Raid-style offense that Longo brought with him from North Carolina and other stops.
The Badgers, who lost starting quarterback Tyler Van Dyke to a season-ending injury Sept. 14, had only three points and 88 yards in the second half against Oregon, which rallied from a 13-6 deficit entering the fourth quarter.
Wisconsin ranked 101st nationally in scoring in Longo’s 23 games as coordinator and failed to eclipse 13 points on its current three-game losing streak. Quarterback Braedyn Locke had only 96 passing yards against the Ducks.
Fickell did not immediately announce an interim coordinator for Wisconsin’s final regular-season games against Nebraska and Minnesota.
Fickell had long targeted Longo for a coordinator role, going back to his time as Cincinnati’s coach. Longo, 56, oversaw productive offenses at Ole Miss, North Carolina, Sam Houston State and other spots but never consistently got traction at a Wisconsin program that had operated dramatically differently on offense before his arrival.
“This team still has a lot in front of us and I am committed to doing everything we can to close out this season with success,” Fickell said in his statement.
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Eli Lederman, ESPN Staff Writer
Four-star quarterback Tramell Jones Jr. has committed to Florida, he told ESPN on Sunday, joining the Gators’ 2025 class four days after pulling his pledge from Florida State.
Jones, a four-year starter at Florida’s Mandarin High School, is ESPN’s No. 9 dual-threat passer in the Class of 2025. After multiple trips to Florida throughout his recruitment, Jones returned to campus Saturday, taking an official visit with the Gators during the program’s 27-16 win over LSU. A day later, Jones stands as the lone quarterback pledge in a 2025 Florida class that includes five pledges from the ESPN 300.
“I pretty much saw everything I needed to see when I visited last spring — I just love everything around the campus,” Jones told ESPN. “And then hanging out with the guys yesterday, seeing the camaraderie with each other, that really just sealed it for me.”
Jones was the longest-tenured member of Mike Norvell’s 2025 class at Florida State before his decommitment from the Seminoles on Thursday morning.
Jones’ exit came days after Norvell announced the firings of three assistant coaches on Nov. 10, including offensive coordinator and offensive line coach Alex Atkins. Jones was the first Florida State commit to pull his pledge in the wake of the staff shakeup but marked the Seminoles sixth decommitment since the start of the regular season, joining five ESPN 300 recruits who have left Norvell’s recruiting class across the program’s 1-9 start.
Jones’ commitment follows a key late-season victory for Billy Napier on Saturday and marks the Gators’ first recruiting win since athletic director Scott Strickland announced on Nov. 7 that Florida would stick with the third-year coach beyond the 2024 season.
Uncertainty over Napier’s future had weighed down Florida’s recruiting efforts in the 2025 class as the Gators began November with the No. 39 class in ESPN’s latest team rankings for the cycle. But Jones’ pledge comes as a boost for Florida one day after the Gators hosted a handful of high-profile flip targets, including five-star offensive tackle Solomon Thomas (Florida State pledge) and four-star wide receiver Jaime Ffrench (Texas pledge).
When Jones signs with Florida, he’ll arrive on campus flanked by fellow in-state offensive talents in four-star wide receivers Vernell Brown III (No. 44 in the ESPN 300) and Naeshaun Montgomery (No. 115), as well as four-star running back Waltez Clark (No. 223). Florida is also set to sign a pair of in-state defenders from the 2025 ESPN 300 between four-star defensive end Jalen Wiggins (No. 68) and four-star cornerback Ben Hanks Jr. (No. 121).
With Jones’ commitment, Florida has another jolt to its momentum on the recruiting trail as the Gators seek to chart a strong finish in the 2025 cycle next month. More imminently, Florida will host No. 11 Ole Miss on Saturday.
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