Government draws link between good weather and small boat crossings – but they are rising during bad conditions too
A new Home Office report has linked the UK’s balmy start to 2025 to a dramatic rise in the number of small boat crossings when compared to the same period last year.
However, analysis by the Sky News data team shows that there has also been a big rise in crossings on days when the weather has been poor.
A record 11,074 people arrived in small boats before May this year, a rise of almost 50% compared with the same period last year.
According to the Home Office figures, 60 of those days this year were classed as “red days” – where Channel crossings are more likely because of good weather – compared with just 27 last year.
In a new report released today, the Home Office says that the doubling of red days from January to April 2025, compared with the same period in 2024, “coincides with small boat arrivals being 46% higher” over that period.
Our analysis, using similar criteria to the Home Office, but not attempting to directly replicate their methodology, agrees that there have been an unusually high number of days this year when the weather makes for good sailing conditions.
But it also shows that there are significantly more people making the crossing when the weather is not ideal – a rise of 30% on last year, and more than double compared with the year before.
We’ve classified the weather as being favourable on a day when, for several consecutive hours early in the morning, wave height, wind speed, rain and atmospheric pressure were all at levels the Met Office says typically contribute to good conditions for sailing. There’s more detail on our methodology lower down this page.
There is a clear link between better weather and more people arriving in the UK on small boats.
An average of 190 people per day have arrived so far this year when the weather has been fair, compared with 60 on days with less consistently good conditions.
But if we look just at the days when the weather is not so good, we can also see a clear and consistent rise in the numbers over time.
That average of 60 arrivals per “low viability” day is a rise of more than 30% on last year, and more than double the 24 that arrived on each similar day in 2023.
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UK sees new Channel migrant record
There are a range of reasons why more people could be crossing on bad weather days.
Smuggler tactics are changing, and Home Office data shows severely overcrowded boats are becoming more common.
In the year to April 2022, just 2% of boats had 60 or more people on board, compared with 47% in the year to April 2025.
In other words, in the space of three years, the number of boats with more than 60 on board has gone from 1 in 50 to every second boat.
Dr Peter Walsh, senior researcher at the Migration Observatory at Oxford University, told Sky News that a rise in demand due to geopolitical issues, like the situation in Afghanistan, may be a factor, but that it is interesting that illegal entries to the EU are down while they have risen in the UK.
What is the Home Office doing?
The current government has placed a major emphasis on disrupting the smuggler gang supply chains to restrict the number of boats and engines making it to the French coast.
Part of the problem is that French authorities are unable to intercept boats once they are already in the water, which is believed to have been exacerbated by good weather.
The Home Secretary, Yvette Cooper, has confirmed the French government is reviewing its policies after she pressed for a law change that would allow police in France to apprehend migrants in shallow waters.
The Home Office released figures on Thursday that revealed France is intercepting fewer Channel migrants than ever before, despite signing a £480m deal with the UK to stop the crossings.
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‘Britain has lost control of its borders’
How are we defining good and bad days?
The Home Office says that its assessments of the likelihood of small boat crossings are passed to it by the Met Office.
“A Red, Amber, Green (RAG) daily crossing assessment is produced of the likelihood of small boat crossing activity based on the forecasted wave height and other environmental and non-environmental factors; such as rates of precipitation, surf conditions on beaches, wind speed and direction, open-source forecasts, and recent trends.”
We’ve not tried to replicate that methodology directly. But we’ve looked at Met Office categorisations for wave height, wind speed, atmospheric pressure and rain, four factors that each contribute to fair conditions for sailing in a small boat.
They say a wind speed of 5m/s is a “gentle breeze”. They classify precipitation as at least 0.1mm of rain per hour. If the “significant wave height” – the height of the highest one third of waves – is below 0.5m, they say that’s “smooth”.
Standard pressure at sea level is 1,013hPa, and high pressure “tends to lead to settled weather conditions” . We’ve set the minimum pressure at 1,015hPa, on the high side of standard, and used the thresholds listed above for the other metrics.
We’ve categorised a “high viability” day as one in which all four of those conditions were met in the Dover Strait for at least four consecutive hours, between 2am and 6am UK time.
A “low viability” day is where there is no more than one hour during which all those conditions were met. And “medium” is when the conditions are met for 2-3 hours.
The Data and Forensics team is a multi-skilled unit dedicated to providing transparent journalism from Sky News. We gather, analyse and visualise data to tell data-driven stories. We combine traditional reporting skills with advanced analysis of satellite images, social media and other open source information. Through multimedia storytelling we aim to better explain the world while also showing how our journalism is done.
A woman who thought she was being injected with Botox was left unable to swallow and doctors thought she had suffered a stroke – after she contracted a life-threatening illness from a potentially illegal product.
Nicola Fairley is one of dozens of people who have developed botulism linked to unlicensed anti-wrinkle injections.
She had the procedure done with her regular beautician after winning a Facebook competition for three areas of “Botox”.
Nicola Fairley
“Within two or three hours my forehead and the sides of my eyes had started to freeze,” Nicola says.
“At first I thought ‘amazing’, that’s what I wanted – then it just carried on.”
Nicola was eventually sent to A&E in Durham, where she met several other patients who all had similar symptoms.
Doctors were stumped. “They thought I’d had a stroke,” she says.
“We all had problems with our eyes, some of us with our breathing. I couldn’t swallow – they put me on nil by mouth because they were worried I would choke in the waiting room.”
Doctors were worried Nicola could choke after she was injected with a suspected illegal product
It turns out all of the patients had recently had anti-wrinkle injections containing botulinum toxin.
Health officials believe they were imported, illegal products.
Botulism – the disease they caused – is so rare many doctors never see it in their entire careers.
It can cause symptoms including slurred speech and breathing problems, and can be deadly.
The disease is so unusual, and so many cases were coming in, that doctors exhausted their stocks of anti-toxin and had to ask hospitals as far away as London to get more.
The UK Health Security Agency has so far confirmed 38 cases of botulism linked to cosmetic toxin injections, but Sky News has been told of several more.
The outbreak began in the North East but cases have now been seen in the East of England and East Midlands as well.
There are only a handful of legal botulinum toxin products in the UK – of which Botox is one.
But cosmetic treatments are largely unregulated, with anyone allowed to inject products like fillers and toxins without any medical training.
Cheap, illegal products imported from overseas are easily available.
Dr Steven Land
‘It’s the Wild West’
Dr Steven Land runs Novellus Aesthetics clinic in Newcastle upon Tyne. He worked for decades as an emergency medicine doctor before moving into aesthetics.
He says he has been warning health officials of an outbreak for years.
“It’s the Wild West,” Dr Land told Sky News.
“Because anyone can do this, there is a lack of knowledge around what is legal, what’s not legal, what is okay to be injected.
“These illegal toxins could have 50 units, 5,000 units or rat poison – there could be anything in there.”
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Dr Land showed us messages that he says he gets on a weekly basis, from sellers trying to push him cheap, unlicensed products.
They advertise “limited time offers” and cheap bundles on toxins imported from overseas. He calls them “drug dealers”.
“They are preying on the lack of knowledge among non-medical practitioners,” he says.
Consultations on how to regulate the aesthetics industry have been ongoing for years – but so far, no changes have been introduced.
The UK government now says it does plan to regulate certain procedures, but it’s not said how it will do this, or when.
“What will it take?” Nicola says. “One of the women we were with did almost die – she had to be resuscitated.”
Nicola’s beautician has stopped responding to her messages, so she says she still has no idea what the product was “or how much of it is in me”.
She doesn’t know how long her symptoms will last, but just hopes she will eventually recover.
Donald Trump has landed in Scotland for a four-day trip including high-level meetings – praising Sir Keir Starmer as “a good man” but calling illegal migration a “horrible invasion” that is “killing Europe”.
Crowds gathered at Prestwick Airport in Ayrshire amid a major security operation for the US president’s visit.
Mr Trump told reporters: “I like your prime minister. He’s slightly more liberal than I am… but he’s a good man… he got a trade deal done. It’s a good deal for the UK.”
The pair are expected to discuss potential changes to the UK-US trade deal which came into force last month.
Trump left Air Force One to head to Turnberry, one of his Scottish golf courses. Part of the trip will include the opening of another course in Aberdeenshire, billed as “the greatest 36 holes in golf”.
Trump supporters waved as Air Force One landed. Pic: PA
“There’s no place like Turnberry. It’s the best, probably the best course in the world. And I would say Aberdeen is right up there,” the US president said.
“Sean Connery helped get me the [planning] permits. If it weren’t for Sean Connery, we wouldn’t have those great courses,” he added.
During the trip, President Trump will also hold discussions with Scotland’s First Minister John Swinney and EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, who is keen to secure a trade deal with the US.
Donald Trump spoke to reporters after landing at Prestwick Airport, Ayrshire. Pic: AP
Mr Trump told reporters there was “a good 50-50 chance” of an agreement with the EU but added there were “maybe 20 different” sticking points.
EU diplomats say a deal could result in a broad 15% tariff on EU goods and half of the 30% Trump is threatening to impose by 1 August.
He travelled to Turnberry, one of his Scottish golf resorts, amid tight security. Pic: Reuters
The US president touched on illegal immigration and gave European leaders a stark warning.
“You better get your act together or you’re not going to have Europe anymore. You got to get your act together,” he said.
“But you’re allowing it to happen to your countries and you got to stop this horrible invasion that’s happening to Europe. Immigration is killing Europe.”
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What do Scots think of Trump visit?
He was also scathing about the installation of wind turbines across the continent.
“Stop the windmills. You’re ruining your countries,” he said. “It’s so sad. You fly over and you see these windmills all over the place, ruining your beautiful fields and valleys and killing your birds.”
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Epstein questions keep coming
Domestically, Mr Trump faces the biggest political crisis of his second term in office over his administration’s handling of files linked to disgraced financier and sex offender Jeffrey Epstein, who died in prison in 2019.
He faced another round of questions after stepping off Air Force One.
“You’re making a big thing over something that’s not a big thing. I’m focused on making deals, not on conspiracy theories that you are,” he said.
Mr Trump added that “now’s not the time” to discuss a pardon for Ghislaine Maxwell, Epstein’s imprisoned accomplice.
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Trump in Scotland amid Epstein storm
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While the president’s visit did attract some enthusiastic flag-waving supporters at Prestwick Airport, he is also likely to trigger a number of protests, prompting Police Scotland to call in support from other forces in the UK.
The Stop Trump Scotland group has planned demonstrations on Saturday in Edinburgh, Aberdeen and Dumfries.
About 70% of Scots have an unfavourable opinion of Mr Trump, while 18% have a positive opinion, an Ipsos poll in March found.
Mr Trump is staying at his Turnberry property on Scotland’s west coast this weekend, before travelling to Aberdeenshire on Monday, where he will open a second 18-hole course.
He is due to return to the UK in September for a state visit hosted by the King – the first world leader in modern times to undertake two UK state visits.
UK
‘Immigration is killing Europe’: Donald Trump issues warning to leaders as he arrives in Scotland
Donald Trump has landed in Scotland ahead of a four-day trip, which includes high-level meetings, praising Sir Keir Starmer as “a good man” but also calling illegal migration a “horrible invasion” that was “killing Europe”.
Crowds gathered at Prestwick Airport in Ayrshire amid a major security operation for the US president’s visit.
Mr Trump told reporters: “I like your prime minister. He’s slightly more liberal than I am… but he’s a good man… he got a trade deal done. It’s a good deal for the UK.”
Trump latest: Donald Trump arrives in Scotland
The pair are expected to discuss potential changes to the UK-US trade deal which came into force last month.
Trump left Air Force One to head to Turnberry, one of his Scottish golf courses. Part of the trip will include the opening of another course in Aberdeenshire, billed as “the greatest 36 holes in golf”.
Trump supporters waved as Air Force One landed. Pic: PA
“There’s no place like Turnberry. It’s the best, probably the best course in the world. And I would say Aberdeen is right up there,” the US president said.
“Sean Connery helped get me the [planning] permits. If it weren’t for Sean Connery, we wouldn’t have those great courses,” he added.
During the trip, President Trump will also hold discussions with Scotland’s First Minister John Swinney and EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, who is keen to secure a trade deal with the US.
Donald Trump spoke to reporters after landing at Prestwick Airport, Ayrshire. Pic: AP
Mr Trump told reporters there was “a good 50-50 chance” of an agreement with the EU but added there were “maybe 20 different” sticking points.
EU diplomats say a deal could result in a broad 15% tariff on EU goods and half of the 30% Trump is threatening to impose by 1 August.
He travelled to Turnberry, one of his Scottish golf resorts, amid tight security. Pic: Reuters
The US president touched on illegal immigration and gave European leaders a stark warning.
“You better get your act together or you’re not going to have Europe anymore. You got to get your act together,” he said.
“But you’re allowing it to happen to your countries and you got to stop this horrible invasion that’s happening to Europe. Immigration is killing Europe,” he told reporters.
Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player
What do Scots think of Trump visit?
He was also scathing about the installation of wind turbines across Europe.
“Stop the windmills. You’re ruining your countries,” he said. “It’s so sad. You fly over and you see these windmills all over the place, ruining your beautiful fields and valleys and killing your birds.”
Read more from Sky News:
Epstein risks following Trump
Ghislaine Maxwell questioned
Epstein questions keep coming
Domestically, President Trump faces the biggest political crisis of his second term in office over his administration’s handling of files linked to disgraced financier and sex offender Jeffrey Epstein, who died in prison in 2019.
He faced another round of questions after stepping off Air Force One. “You’re making a big thing over something that’s not a big thing. I’m focused on making deals, not on conspiracy theories that you are,” he said.
Mr Trump added that “now’s not the time” to discuss a pardon for Ghislaine Maxwell, Epstein’s imprisoned accomplice.
Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player
Trump in Scotland amid Epstein storm
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While the president’s visit did attract some enthusiastic flag-waving supporters at Prestwick Airport, he is also likely to trigger a number of protests, prompting Police Scotland to call in support from other forces in the UK.
The Stop Trump Scotland group has planned demonstrations on Saturday in Edinburgh, Aberdeen and Dumfries.
About 70% of Scots have an unfavourable opinion of Trump, while 18% have a positive opinion, an Ipsos poll in March found.
President Trump is staying at his Turnberry property on Scotland’s west coast this weekend, before travelling to Aberdeenshire on Monday, where he will open a second 18-hole course.
He is due to return to the UK in September for a state visit hosted by the King – the first world leader in modern times to undertake two UK state visits.
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