
2026 recruiting class rankings: Florida schools make big moves
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Craig HaubertJun 26, 2025, 09:00 AM ET
Close- National recruiting analyst and analyst for ESPNU
- More than a decade of college and pro coaching experience.
- Graduated from Indiana and Nebraska-Omaha
As June comes to a close, it brings with it a new recruiting landscape following a wave of commitments. USC maintains the top spot with a pair of recent ESPN 300 defensive commitments, but there are two new teams within the top five.
Texas A&M, Georgia, Texas, Miami and Florida State were all big movers and now sit within the top 10. The Longhorns continue to build a talented defensive line class with two more additions to that unit, led by five-star DE Richard Wesley, an explosive defender with impact ability.
Miami flipped former Georgia receiver Vance Spafford, who can be a big-play target, as he is one of the fastest receivers in this class.
Florida State is showing signs of shaking off a disappointing 2024 with a busy June, and the Noles now have double-digit commitments including several ESPN 300 prospects, such as receiver Devin Carter and QB Jaden O’Neal.
The class rankings have experienced a major shift and are far from done. Commitments and flips continue to roll in, and many more notable announcements are expected in the coming weeks, including from the No. 1-ranked prospect Lamar Brown, so no team should get comfortable.
Here’s a look at our latest top 25.
New this ranking: Florida State, Florida, Cal, BYU
Out: Arkansas, Arizona State, Oregon, Stanford
(Previous update: June 12)
Previous ranking: 1
ESPN 300 commits: 17
Top offensive prospect: OT Keenyi Pepe
Top defensive prospect: CB Elbert Hill
No program has more 2026 momentum than USC under Lincoln Riley, especially after hiring general manager Chad Bowden away from Notre Dame. The Trojans have double-digit ESPN 300 commits, with several joining the list since January. That includes two five-stars to start May in Pepe and Hill, and a pair of four-star commits who flipped from Big Ten rival Oregon: in-state defensive lineman Tomuhini Topui and quarterback Jonas Williams. Topui is a physical, aggressive defensive tackle who could develop into an interior pass-rushing headache for opposing offenses, and Williams is a true dual-threat signal-caller.
USC also made it a point to beef up in the trenches. It pulled four-star defensive tackle Jaimeon Winfield out of Texas, landed in-state defensive end Simote Katoanga and traveled to Utah to snag Corner Canyon offensive lineman Esun Tafa. To further bolster the O-line, the Trojans landed Pepe out of IMG Academy. He is huge at roughly 6-foot-7 and 320 pounds, but is light on his feet as well as physical and can become a standout tackle. On the perimeter, they will not have to wait for in-state defender R.J. Sermons as the ESPN 300 CB reclassified to 2025 and will join the Trojans this fall. For 2026, they pulled Elbert Hill, the top-ranked corner, out of the Midwest. Hill possesses elite speed, having been measured at over 22 mph in game play.
Previous ranking: 7
ESPN 300 commits: 13
Top offensive prospect: RB K.J. Edwards
Top defensive prospect: ATH Brandon Arrington
Mike Elko has quickly proved he can identify and recruit at a high level. He has worked fertile recruiting grounds outside his home territory, including Georgia, Florida, California. He went out west to land the nation’s No. 1-ranked athlete Brandon Arrington, whose speed could allow him to have an impact on either side of the ball, though he projects to corner in College Station. He pulled out Georgia ESPN 300 defensive end Jordan Carter and landed fellow four-star defensive tackle Jermaine Kinsler out of New Jersey.
The Aggies bolstered their rushing attack with a pair of in-state running backs in K.J. Edwards and Jonathan Hatton, who has an excellent blend of size (200 pounds) and speed (he was measured hitting 21 mph on film). Edwards has been very productive in high school, rushing for 1,700 yards in each of his last two seasons.
Elko has also been able to unearth talent from more unlikely places, such as quarterback Helaman Casuga out of Utah. Casuga is not a big, physical prospect at roughly 6 feet, but he has a live arm and can get the ball out quickly. Victor Singleton, one of the top prospects in Ohio, was a nice flip from Illinois. He has clocked a 21-mph max speed and has the type of quickness and excellent feet to thrive in man coverage at corner.
Previous ranking: 2
ESPN 300 commits: 14
Top offensive prospect: OT Tyler Merrill
Top defensive prospect: CB Khary Adams
Notre Dame started the year off slowly on the recruiting trail but added several key ESPN 300 additions in the spring and summer months, including important defensive additions. Rodney Dunham was one of the first on board and is an edge player with a quick first step. The secondary will benefit from adding some length to that unit. Ayden Pouncey is a rangy safety with a 6-foot-3 frame that could allow him to grow into an outside linebacker role. Khary Adams is one of the top cornerback prospects in the nation as he possesses an excellent blend of size (6-foot-2) and speed (21.3 mph max speed).
On offense, ESPN 300 OT Gregory Patrick joined a class that already featured several top offensive line prospects including top-10 tackle Tyler Merrill, who at 6-foot-7 and 335 pounds is a massive presence with physicality and power in the run game. This group collectively can continue the school’s strong reputation as an offensive line factory.
The Irish also landed Thomas Davis Jr., whose father is former Panthers star Thomas Davis, and four-star quarterback Noah Grubbs, who already has shown impressive footwork and a sound release from the pocket.
Previous ranking: 6
ESPN 300 commits: 12
Top offensive prospect: QB Jared Curtis
Top defensive prospect: CB Justice Fitzpatrick
The Bulldogs have been a consistent staple among the top three overall classes during Kirby Smart’s tenure and look to be a contender to do so again in 2026. A big step toward finishing near the top is bringing five-star quarterback Curtis back into the mix. After a decommitment, the Bulldogs were able to fend off other suitors, most notably Oregon, and give themselves a potential impact QB for the future. Curtis might need to adjust to a relatively steep jump in competition level, but he has elite physical tools, including a smooth, quick release and the ability to change arm angles.
With three of their top four pass catchers from 2024 having moved on and the fourth likely to leave after this season, Georgia is bringing in new receiving targets with speed. Brady Marchese has been recorded hitting over 22 mph in game play. After signing two ESPN 300 TEs in their 2025 class, the Dawgs continue to restock there, adding Lincoln Keyes, who with his big frame and good body control can offer a wide catch radius.
On defense, the Bulldogs have had 11 first-round NFL draft picks over the past five years and they continue to infuse that unit with top talent, including two of the top DBs in the country in Fitzpatrick and Zechariah Fort. Fort is a safety with good range who can be active in run support. Fitzpatrick is the younger brother of former Alabama great DB Minkah Fitzpatrick; his blend of size and speed gives him equally promising impact potential.
Previous ranking: 2
ESPN 300 commits: 13
Top offensive prospect: WR Chris Henry Jr.
Top defensive prospect: S Blaine Bradford
Ryan Day has the luxury of building his 2026 class around one of the most coveted players in the country: five-star receiver Henry, whose father, the late Chris Henry, was a star receiver for West Virginia and the Cincinnati Bengals. Henry Jr. stands 6-6 and has a combination of length and quickness rarely seen from high school receivers.
The rest of the Buckeyes’ class has started to take shape around Henry. The team has added a handful of ESPN 300 prospects since March, including Bradford out of Louisiana and linebacker Simeon Caldwell out of Florida. C.J. Sanna is a prospect we like on tape; he is a big, physical linebacker with excellent range and is a bit of an underrated pickup for this talented class. In-state offensive tackle Maxwell Riley is impressive changing direction and finishes plays with the type of nastiness that will endear him to fans in Columbus.
Previous ranking: 4
ESPN 300 commits: 10
Top offensive prospect: OT Leo Delaney
Top defensive prospect: S Kentavion Anderson
Clemson is coming off a College Football Playoff appearance, but the Tigers are still chasing the heights of their mid-2010s success under Dabo Swinney, and their 2025 class ranked just 37th in the country. Their 2026 group is looking more promising, especially after a red-hot March in which Swinney landed eight verbals, including five ESPN 300 commits.
Much of the talent is currently concentrated on offense. Naeem Burroughs is a burner in the 100-meter dash who can take the top off a defense and has a high football IQ. Fellow receiver Connor Salmin is another big-play threat. With some new offensive weapons, the Tigers are making sure they have the time to get the ball downfield by loading up along the offensive line. Delaney, Carter Scruggs, Grant Wise, Adam Guthrie and Chancellor Barclay give the Tigers multiple ESPN 300 OLs to help reload a senior-heavy unit that is projected to lose multiple starters after 2025.
They could one day protect fellow four-star Tait Reynolds, a dual-threat QB out of Arizona who could push to be part of the long-term solution to replace Cade Klubnik. While the foundation of the class is on offense, Anderson is a key in-state pickup on the other side of the ball. With his frame (roughly 6-foot-2, 190 pounds) and range, he can be a versatile back-end defender for the Tigers.
Previous ranking: 19
ESPN 300 commits: 9
Top offensive prospect: QB Dia Bell
Top defensive prospect: DE Richard Wesley
As Texas tackles the 2025 season led by one of the most high-profile signings in recent years in quarterback Arch Manning, the Longhorns continue to build for the future as well, including another five-star QB. Dia Bell brings valuable experience, having faced quality competition during his time in high school. He has shown good accuracy and deep-ball touch, and as a junior threw for more than 2,500 yards and completed 70% of his passes.
The Horns also added potential targets including ESPN 300 WRs Chris Stewart and Jermaine Bishop Jr. Stewart brings big-play speed, and Bishop is a quick, fluid target who can create after the catch. To protect their new offensive weapons, they have also landed some top in-state OLs, including top-10 OG Nicolas Robertson, a powerful big man with good feet.
Texas hit the transfer portal hard to address needs along the defensive line for this season, especially interior DL, but there are young pieces for that unit in the 2026 class. One-time Oregon commit Richard Wesley was a big add as he is explosive and powerful and could be a versatile and impact presence in the trenches. Dylan Berymon has been a standout on the camp circuit the last two offseasons and seems to keep rising to whatever challenge is thrown at him. Corey Wells is another 300-pounder who can bend well and be disruptive.
Previous ranking: 17
ESPN 300 commits: 9
Top offensive prospect: OT Jackson Cantwell
Top defensive prospect: LB Jordan Campbell
Despite a rocky finish to the 2024 season, the Hurricanes are trending in the right direction. They’re coming off a 10-win season, former QB Cam Ward was the No. 1 pick in the NFL draft and they’ve reeled in two consecutive top-15 recruiting classes. Mario Cristobal’s 2026 class is working to match or even exceed those groups.
The Hurricanes are adding pieces to field a dominant offensive line. They could lose several projected 2025 starters after this season but are adding big men who can step in and project a bright future in the trenches. In addition to landing the top-rated interior OL in the 2025 class, they have added several OLs to their 2026 class, led by No. 1 tackle Jackson Cantwell. Much like current standout OT Francis Mauigoa, who was a five-star himself and a Year 1 starter, Cantwell could step in at one of the tackle spots upon arriving in South Florida. He is a massive presence at roughly 6-7 and 320 pounds and carries his size well. In addition to being powerful, he possesses good quickness and flexibility, and much like Mauigoa is being projected to be a high NFL draft pick.
QB Dereon Coleman has room for growth but has a quick release and accuracy. The Hurricanes flipped from Georgia a speedy receiving target out of California in Vance Spafford, who won the fastest-man competition last summer at the UA Future 50 event. Four-star Miami native Jordan Campbell is 6-2, 220 pounds with the versatility to make plays in pursuit and the bend and power that portend a potential impact pass rusher. He’s a candidate to take a leap with college coaching.
Previous ranking: 5
ESPN 300 commits: 7
Top offensive prospect: WR Davion Brown
Top defensive prospect: S Matt Sieg
The Nittany Lions jumped out to a fast start fueled by strong in-state recruiting and have kept that momentum going. Several of their top commits are Pennsylvania natives, including four-star Harrisburg High School teammates Kevin Brown and Messiah Mickens. Brown is a big, flexible offensive tackle, while Mickens has been a productive prep running back, which bodes well for a Penn State program that must finally replace Kaytron Allen and Nicholas Singleton after 2025.
James Franklin also landed in-state athlete David Davis Jr., who has clocked a 20.5 mph max speed and has the cover skills to fit into the back end of a defense one day. While most of the early commits are within Penn State’s primary recruiting radius, the Nittany Lions also landed strong-armed quarterback Troy Huhn out of California. He’s a big body with good feet and brings nice upside. They also went out of state to land a potential big-play target in Davion Brown. Out of Virginia, Brown possesses excellent speed, having been recorded at over 21 mph in game play, and can do a good job of high pointing the football to win contested matchups.
Previous ranking: NR
ESPN 300 commits: 8
Top offensive prospect: TE Xavier Tiller
Top defensive prospect: CB Lawrence Timmons
Mike Norvell cranked up the heat on Florida State’s 2026 recruiting class this summer. Coming off a 2-10 season that led to a staff overhaul, Norvell’s fresh start pitch is resonating with prospects. The Seminoles landed multiple four-star commitments in June, headlined by tight end Xavier Tiller, who checks in at No. 84 on the ESPN 300. A former Texas A&M commit, the 6-foot-5, 215-pound Tiller boasts an 80-inch wingspan, fluid movement skills and the toughness to win contested catches.
Tiller isn’t the only notable pass catcher entering the mix for Florida State. Wide receiver Devin Carter, the son of former Seminoles running back Dexter Carter, is back in the fold after initially flipping to Auburn. He brings explosive short-area quickness and strong bloodlines. Four-star Florida native Brandon Bennett adds another dynamic option.
Norvell also landed a quarterback who could one day get them the ball and tie the class together by flipping Jaden O’Neal, who plays at Mustang High in Oklahoma, from the in-state Sooners. The 6-foot-3 pocket-passer ranks No. 166 overall with a good frame, smooth delivery and calm demeanor. If Florida State holds onto O’Neal, he would be the program’s highest-rated quarterback signee since 2022.
Previous ranking: 9
ESPN 300 commits: 2
Top offensive prospect: ATH Nasir Rankin
Top defensive prospect: DE Kayden Bennett
Good recruiting starts at home, and an early priority for the Fighting Illini was in-state athlete Rankin. A two-sport star who also excels on the hardwood, the ESPN 300 prospect projects to wide receiver, where he can be a playmaker with good hands and the ability to make defenders miss after the catch. Also from in-state, big man Casey Thomann is one of the top OL prospects in Illinois, and three-star Tony Balanganayi is an interesting big man. He projects to the defensive line, where he has shown he can be disruptive, but with more mass could offer higher upside as an OL.
From within the Big Ten footprint, four-star Cam Thomas (Ohio) is a defender with an outstanding first step and could develop into an edge rusher with big upside. Parker Crim brings good arm length, can move well and has shown he can be explosive off the ball. Tony Williams, out of Florida, is a middle linebacker with good instincts and can be a physical presence between the tackles.
Previous ranking: 20
ESPN 300 commits: 2
Top offensive prospect: OT Micah Smith
Top defensive prospect: DE Anthony Jones
The DeShaun Foster era got off to a rocky start, but the Bruins are showing some ascension. In recruiting, the former running back knows the importance of a good O-line and pulled a pair of ESPN 300 OLs out of Florida in Micah Smith and Johnnie Jones. Known as Champ, Smith was an Under Armour All-American as a junior and has shown he can play against top competition and be a well-rounded OT. Tight end Camden Jensen should help propel the run game as well, as he is a good blocker.
The Bruins have added multiple WRs in this class, including in-state four-star Kenneth Moore. Onetime SMU commit Yahya Gaad has a sturdy, muscular build with a good initial burst and is a DE who can set the edge and be tough against the run.
Previous ranking: 8
ESPN 300 commits: 3
Top offensive prospect: WR Dyzier Carter
Top defensive prospect: ATH Wydeek Collier
The Scarlet Knights have added some top talent to their wide receiver room with Carter and Elias Coke, both of whom have been long-time commits, having joined the class before the 2024 season started. Carter is a good route runner with strong hands and could be a quick contributor once arriving. Coke is a nice target at roughly 6-2.
On defense, Joey Kopec is a two-way player in high school, contributing at RB and LB. He has good range and is effective dropping into coverage. Wydeek Collier was a big riser in the rankings after the spring evaluation period as a lengthy, agile edge defender with a high ceiling for development. Rinaldo Callaway III, out of Georgia, is an interesting addition to keep an eye on. A rangy edge defender, he is raw and needs development but shows a nice ceiling for development and could grow into a disruptive pass rusher. Athlete Chris Hewitt projects to the secondary.
Previous ranking: NR
ESPN 300 commits: 8
Top offensive prospect: QB Will Griffin
Top defensive prospect: DE JaReylan McCoy
Landing one of the top defenders in the country is the fastest way to climb the recruiting rankings, and that’s exactly what Billy Napier did by securing five-star defensive end JaReylan McCoy. Ranked No. 9 overall and the second-best defender in the ESPN 300, McCoy would be Florida’s highest-rated defensive signee in more than a decade. The 6-foot-7, 260-pound Mississippi native brings elite length, explosive traits and a relentless motor that was on full display at the Under Armour All-America week in January. Beating out LSU and Texas for McCoy marks a major recruiting win for Napier, and McCoy has the potential to develop into one of the SEC’s most feared defensive linemen.
Florida is building toward double-digit ESPN 300 commitments, with seven of them-including McCoy-joining the class in June. That group features a pair of dynamic pass-catchers in Marquez Daniel and Justin Williams, as well as Georgia running back Carsyn Baker. Napier’s staff has also bolstered both lines of scrimmage with several high-upside prospects ranked just outside the ESPN 300, adding critical depth as Florida looks to reassert itself in the SEC.
Previous ranking: 16
ESPN 300 commits: 8
Top offensive prospect: WR Tristen Keys
Top defensive prospect: CB Havon Finney Jr.
The Tigers are tough to beat for in-state talent, and they built the foundation for one of the top classes in the country on homegrown recruits. But landing Keys from nearby Mississippi delivered Brian Kelly and his staff their first five-star of the 2026 cycle. As of now, the 6-3 Keys would be the highest-rated receiver to make it to Baton Rouge since Kayshon Boutte. Keys is a long strider with long arms who prioritizes winning and is a favorite of coaches and teammates alike.
LSU also recently added wide receiver Jabari Mack (a strong route runner) and offensive tackle Brysten Martinez, a pair of in-state four-star recruits who bolster a class that now features more than half of the top 10 players from Louisiana. That includes a pair of teammates from Edna Karr High: DT Richard Anderson, a stout presence at more than 300 pounds with good initial quickness, and Aiden Hall, a safety with good length, speed and downhill physicality. Though much of their recruiting success is from within their primary recruiting footprint, the Tigers did go out west to land ESPN 300 Finney. A 2027 prospect who reclassified into the 2026 class, he has shown he can be physical in press coverage but also brings excellent speed to be able to run with receivers.
Previous ranking: 24
ESPN 300 commits: 5
Top offensive prospect: OT Kodi Greene
Top defensive prospect: DE Derek Colman-Brusa
Jedd Fisch did an excellent job bringing in talent at Arizona and is now working to retool Washington’s roster and get the Huskies back into the playoff hunt. The Huskies won a key recruiting battle by pulling away Greene, an ESPN 300 OL, from rival Oregon. He is a 300-pounder who moves very well for his size with good quickness and the one-time Washington resident can be a key option in the trenches. The Huskies went east to land their QB in Derek Zammit, a tough, smart player with a smooth, quick release. He should continue to improve with the tools to develop into a productive starter.
Washington landed several commitments in the secondary, including in-state Durr, who has good size at roughly 6 feet and is smooth in his movements. He could develop at cornerback or safety.
Previous ranking: 22
ESPN 300 commits: 6
Top offensive prospect: QB Brady Smigiel
Top defensive prospect: DE Titan Davis
The Wolverines signed the No. 1 QB for the 2025 cycle in Bryce Underwood and he carries high expectations, but they continue to add talent to the position and landed ESPN 300 signal-caller Brady Smigiel. The onetime Florida State commit is not only an accurate passer, but he also plays with the confidence and swagger that will be needed battling with five-star Underwood.
After losing two DLs in the first round of the NFL draft, Michigan added several DLs to this class, including ESPN 300 DEs Titan Davis and McHale Blade. Four-star DE Tariq Boney is a player to keep an eye on. He lacks ideal length but can be a well-rounded technician and a quick contributor. After scoring from off the beaten path with former standout TE Colston Loveland (Idaho), the Wolverines hope to strike big again from that same region with Matt Ludwig out of Montana. He is a versatile player with good ball skills who can be tough after the catch and fights for yards.
Previous ranking: 13
ESPN 300 commits: 2
Top offensive prospect: QB Travis Burgess
Top defensive prospect: DT Trashawn Ruffin
Unsurprisingly given his ethos, Bill Belichick is building North Carolina’s 2026 class from the inside out. Griffin-Haynes was a key in-state keep. The aggressive, lengthy edge defender can bolster the Heels’ defensive front with the tools to be a three-down player. Four-star North Carolina defensive tackle Trashawn Ruffin flipped from Texas A&M, and the 300-pounder has plenty of raw physicality to mold. Ruffin is one of several interior linemen in the class, and Belichick went to his former home base in Massachusetts to bring in 335-pound guard Lenneil Hall.
The secondary has undergone some changes during this recruiting cycle, but Marcellous Ryan out of California remains and gives UNC a lean but fluid CB to develop. Crew Davis can be a versatile back with the power to run between the tackles, but he also possesses good ball skills. As a junior, he rushed for more than 1,300 yards and also hauled in more than 50 receptions. Quarterback commit Travis Burgess had a strong showing at the Elite 11 finals and jumped into the ESPN 300 after spring evaluations. He displayed steady development including improved accuracy and also has excellent mobility to create with his legs as well.
Previous rank: NR
ESPN 300 commits: 2
Top offensive prospect: OG Tommy Tofi
Top defensive prospect: DE Camron Brooks
Cal cracks the top 25 after Justin Wilcox opened June by landing a commitment from four-star guard Tommy Tofi, the nation’s top-ranked guard. At 6-foot-6, 340 pounds, the San Francisco-area player brings overwhelming size and physicality, consistently finishing blocks with an edge and flashing the power to impact both sides of the ball as a high schooler. If the Golden Bears hold onto Tofi, he would be the program’s highest-rated offensive line signee in more than a decade, edging out fellow guard Justin Hasenhuetl, part of Cal’s promising 2025 class.
The good news in the trenches doesn’t stop on offense, either. Four-star defensive end Camron Brooks committed in late April. While Tofi and Brooks are Cal’s lone ESPN 300 pledges so far, Wilcox and his staff have assembled a 20-plus player class loaded with quality depth as they continue to build in the trenches and beyond to compete in the ACC.
Previous ranking: 11
ESPN 300 commits: 2
Top offensive prospect: WR Jakai Anderson
Top defensive prospect: LB Markel Dabney
The Mustangs charged into the CFP last season and are showing signs they plan to be a consistent contender. Capitalizing on the rich talent base around them, they have added several in-state prospects, including ESPN 300 back Christian Rhodes. An explosive runner who has been recorded hitting better than 21 mph in game play, he rushed for more than 1,200 yards as a junior.
High three-star Aljour Miles II is another nice in-state add, as he is a lengthy WR with good quickness and body control. Another receiving target with big-play potential, Jakai Anderson, was pulled out of Louisiana. Not quite as big a target, he brings a good blend of speed and elusiveness and could also be productive in the return game. On defense, the addition of DE Hudson Woods is a big plus. Woods shows some savvy as a pass rusher, with active hands and good bend.
Previous ranking: NR
ESPN 300 commits: 3
Top offensive prospect: TE Brock Harris
Top defensive prospect: S Matthew Mason
Kalani Sitake’s 2026 class has the potential to be program-defining as BYU builds on the momentum of last year’s 11-win season, which saw the Cougars climb as high as No. 6 in the College Football Playoff rankings. The Cougars currently hold commitments from two top-100 ESPN 300 standouts-tight end Brock Harris and quarterback Ryder Lyons -marking what could be their most highly-rated duo of high school signees in the ESPN 300 era dating to 2006).
Harris, a 6-foot-7, 240-pound in-state product, has transformed from a jumbo wideout into one of the nation’s premier tight ends, adding size while retaining his fluid route-running and wide catch radius. He also brings toughness-Harris competed at the 2025 Under Armour All-America Game with a cast on his hand. If all goes according to plan, Harris will catch plenty of passes from Lyons, a four-star quarterback who won California’s Gatorade Player of the Year award this fall. Lyons’ commitment represents a full-circle win for BYU. The Cougars offered him as an eighth grader and held off programs like USC and Oregon to secure his commitment.
Another ESPN 300 prospect, two-way lineman Bott Mulitalo, committed in March and could be tasked with protecting Lyons down the road, adding to what has the makings of a historic haul in Provo.
Previous ranking: 10
ESPN 300 commits: 1
Top offensive prospect: OT Javeion Cooper
Top defensive prospect: DE Kamron Wilson
The Fran Brown era in Syracuse certainly isn’t boring. He led the Orange to just their second 10-win season since 2001 behind Ohio State transfer Kyle McCord, then landed a solid 2025 recruiting class. Now he’s pushing for more talent in 2026. Four-star defensive end Jarius Rodgers out of Florida is one of Brown’s biggest gets so far. The 6-5 220-pounder has tremendous length and an impressive track background. He has considerable physical tools and upside if Syracuse’s coaching staff can harness it. Wilson is another big pull out of Florida; the edge defender has good initial quickness and tallied 17 sacks in 2024.
Cooper has real upside too. He has good size (6-5, 300 pounds) yet plays with impressive balance for someone with his power and contact explosiveness. The Orange also have been active in the mid-Atlantic, landing three receivers from Delaware. Among that group is B.J. Garrett, a big target (6-3, 191 pounds) with good hands who could develop into a player in the mold of Oronde Gadsden, who had similar measurables coming out in the 2021 class.
Previous ranking: 21
ESPN 300 commits: 1
Top offensive prospect: OT Andrew Trout
Top defensive prospect: CB Justin Hopkins
The Gophers don’t have a class that will be heavy with ESPN 300 commits, but they’re assembling a strong group anchored by a plethora of high three-star prospects. CBs Justin Hopkins and Chance Payne are good examples of that, as is edge defender Aaden Aytch. A prospect with a lean build who needs to continue to develop, Aytch brings a high ceiling as he has good length, displays wiry strength, can redirect well and can be a factor in pursuit.
Beefing up the offensive line, the Gophers have several commits within the unit, led by the No. 1 player in the state, Andrew Trout, an ESPN 300 OT.
Previous ranking: 14
ESPN 300 commits: 1
Top offensive prospect: OL Kaden Snyder
Top defensive prospect: CB J.J. Dunnigan
Lance Leipold is no stranger to building a program, and he’s off to a hot start in fortifying Kansas’ 2026 class. At 6-3, 190 pounds, in-state corner Dunnigan has the length to reroute receivers off the line and the straight-line speed to hang with them on vertical routes. The Jayhawks have a few offensive linemen committed, led by 6-5 Kansas native Snyder, who has an enticing combination of athleticism, pass protection skills and upside if he can continue to fill out his frame.
The Jalon Daniels era enters its sixth and final season in 2025. In-state three-star commit Jaylen Mason is an intriguing developmental option for the future at QB.
Previous ranking: 18
ESPN 300 commits: 2
Top offensive prospect: QB Briggs Cherry
Top defensive prospect: DB Jaydin Broadnax
Jeff Brohm has raised Louisville’s floor with a 19-8 record and an appearance in the ACC championship game two years ago. His 2026 class already has more than a dozen commits, with four-star defensive back Broadnax out of Florida the biggest get so far. At nearly 6-3, he has great length, balance and body control for a corner. LB Karsten Busch is a nice addition from within the state who will help on defense. He possesses nice size and the ability to be a physical, downhill presence versus the run. Sam Dawson is another in-state defensive add. He is a DT with active, heavy hands and good power who can help stuff the run as well.
Evan Hampton, a three-star running back, ran for 1,549 yards and 20 touchdowns as a junior at in-state Owensboro High School. He’s an elusive, upright runner with the ball skills to affect the pass game and also has a baseball background; he originally committed to rival Kentucky as a freshman before pursuing football. Quarterback Briggs Cherry has performed well during in-person evaluations, including winning positional MVP during the Under Armour New Orleans camp in March. As such, the strong-armed passer has risen in the rankings.
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Bama-Georgia, Oregon-Penn State and 26 more to watch in college football’s biggest week
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14 hours agoon
September 27, 2025By
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Bill ConnellySep 26, 2025, 07:30 AM ET
Close- Bill Connelly is a writer for ESPN. He covers college football, soccer and tennis. He has been at ESPN since 2019.
Since the college football preseason, it has been easy to circle Week 5 as sort of a rubber-meets-road weekend. It’s finally here, and it’s as big as we could have hoped.
Oregon and Penn State have beaten seven overwhelmed opponents by an average score of 48-8; their seasons begin in earnest in Happy Valley on Saturday night. Alabama’s loss to Florida State in Week 1 made the Tide’s first trip to Athens, Georgia, in a decade even bigger from a consequences perspective. Unbeaten LSU and Ole Miss face off for what could be their third straight down-to-the-wire affair. Top-ranked Ohio State’s first road test of the season pits the Buckeyes against a Washington team with one of the most prolific offenses in the country.
Those are just the main events! On Friday night, resurgent Florida State visits a wonderfully surprising Virginia team. After last week’s merciless blowout of Illinois, Indiana has to avoid a massive letdown at Iowa, where many a letdown has occurred. Notre Dame and Arkansas play for the first time in a battle of frustrating and spectacularly explosive teams. Auburn and Texas A&M, which have played many wild and silly games over the past decade, have lots on the line in College Station. USC tests its unbeaten record in Champaign against scorned Illinois. We even get a Big Sky Saturday night with a battle of FCS top-10 teams!
We’ve spent four weeks gearing up for this one. Time to get hyped and hydrated. Here’s everything you need to follow in an incredible Week 5.
Games are Saturday unless noted; times are Eastern.
The season begins in Happy Valley
No. 6 Oregon at No. 3 Penn State (7:30 p.m., NBC)
With all due respect to Nevada, Florida International and Villanova — the No. 138, 134 and 186 teams, respectively, in my all-division SP+ rankings — Penn State began its 2025 season with three glorified scrimmages. Per SP+, an average top-five team would expect to start the season 3-0 against those opponents 97.3% of the time, winning by an average of 38.3 points per game. The Nittany Lions won by exactly 38.3 per game.
Penn State traded résumé-building opportunities and a little bit of margin for error for three sure wins and got them. Oregon also hasn’t played much of a murderer’s row; the Ducks have dominated four teams ranked between 89th and 123rd in SP+. They didn’t allow their first non-garbage-time touchdown until last Saturday. Nothing is a must-win game for two name-brand Big Ten teams with unbeaten records, but neither of these teams will have sparkling strength-of-schedule rankings if they’re in, say, a large pile of 10-2 playoff hopefuls. It’s probably best to win this one.
Penn State’s defense has been every bit as dominant as we expected, considering James Franklin already had a top-five defense and added the best defensive coordinator in the country (Jim Knowles) to lead it. The Nittany Lions force turnovers and don’t allow big plays, and they’ve continued to dominate the red zone as they did last season. The run defense maybe hasn’t dominated as much as I thought it would, but the pass defense has been just about perfect: Corner Elliot Washington II has more catches (one interception) than he has allowed (0-for-6), defensive end Dani Dennis-Sutton has been as good as advertised (4.5 tackles for loss, 2 sacks, 2 forced fumbles), and linebacker Tony Rojas has picked up where he left off in last year’s College Football Playoff (4.5 TFLs, two sacks). Freshman end Chaz Coleman has quickly become a weapon, too.
To put it politely, the offense has been rather reserved. Franklin is the type of coach who would keep things vanilla and put as little as possible on film before a big game. PSU isn’t allowing pressure or negative plays and has committed just one turnover in three games, and Drew Allar hasn’t really looked to make big plays — he has thrown just four passes 30 or more yards downfield, completing two for touchdowns. The Nittany Lions have been content to lean on opponents until they fall over.
Still, you’d like to think that, with so few deep-ball attempts, Allar would be completing more than 65% of his passes. And you’d like to think that, even with vanilla playcalling, Nicholas Singleton would be averaging more than 4.4 yards per carry. Kaytron Allen, another star back, has been dynamite (8.0 yards per carry, lots of broken tackles), new receivers Trebor Pena and Kyron Hudson have done their jobs, and tight end Luke Reynolds has caught 13 of 16 passes. But Allar and Singleton haven’t been as sharp as necessary. Can they turn it on now that the season is really starting? Especially against this defense?
The Oregon pass defense has looked fantastic so far, and both star edge rusher Matayo Uiagalelei (three sacks, one pass breakup) and linebacker Teitum Tuioti (4.5 TFLs, 5 run stops, 1.5 sacks) have looked the part. As with PSU, the run defense has been imperfect — the rebuilt defensive front is still settling in — but the Ducks are forcing loads of passing downs and three-and-outs.
I was unsure about Oregon’s offense heading into the season because it would be relying on so many new starters, but the Ducks are fourth in points per drive, second in offensive SP+ and first in overall SP+. It seems as though things are going pretty well. Quarterback Dante Moore has been as automatic as coordinator Will Stein could want, completing 75% of his passes with just one sack. The receiver quartet of Malik Benson, Dakorien Moore, Gary Bryant Jr. and Jeremiah McClellan has caught 44 of 58 passes for 662 yards. Moore has also connected on four of seven downfield shots of more than 30 yards. His QB radar is nearly a perfect circle now.
Running back Jayden Limar enjoyed a star turn during Noah Whittington‘s injury absence, but now Whittington should be back. It has all worked. Even against a top-40 Northwestern defense, the Ducks scored on six of nine drives and averaged 6.7 yards per play. But this is still the biggest game of Moore’s career, and it will be played against one of the best defenses in the country in front of maybe college football’s loudest crowd (on White Out day, no less). It’s impossible to know a team is ready for that until it proves it.
Current line: PSU -3.5 | SP+ projection: Oregon by 0.4 | FPI projection: PSU by 0.3
Bama has a lot to lose at Georgia
No. 17 Alabama at No. 5 Georgia (7:30 p.m., ABC)
At this point last year, Alabama gave us the two best games of 2024.
1:02
Alabama answers right back with Ryan Williams’ 75-yard touchdown
Jalen Milroe heaves one to Ryan Williams, who goes 75 yards to restore Alabama’s lead.
First, the Tide outlasted Georgia in an unreal 41-34 game that featured a huge Bulldogs comeback and maybe the greatest play of the season. Then, they turned around and lost to Vanderbilt in the upset of the year. In a lovely instance of symmetry, Bama once again gets Georgia and Vandy back-to-back. But the challenges won’t stop there. Six of the Tide’s next seven opponents rank 16th or better in SP+, and thanks to their dreadful Week 1 showing at Florida State, they don’t have much margin for error. If they lose in Athens on Saturday, in their first road trip since Tallahassee, they might have none.
Since their game against FSU, the Tide have been just about perfect. Louisiana-Monroe and Wisconsin obviously aren’t amazing, but Bama overachieved against SP+ projections by a combined 48.4 points against the Warhawks and Badgers. The offense has surged to fifth nationally in points per possession, though its one-dimensionality could become an issue: The Tide are 18th in passing success rate* but 87th in rushing success rate and are therefore throwing far more frequently than the national average. Against Wisconsin, Bama running backs carried 15 times for just 45 yards, but it didn’t matter because quarterback Ty Simpson went 24-for-29 for 382 yards. (That was after going 17-for-17 for 226 yards against ULM. Like I said: just about perfect.)
(* Success rate: how frequently an offense is gaining 50% of necessary yards on first down, 70% on second, and 100% on third and fourth.)
That pass-heavy ratio probably won’t change Saturday because if you’re going to move the ball on Georgia, it’s through the air: The Dawgs are 10th in rushing success rate allowed but 86th against the pass. Tennessee’s Joey Aguilar threw for 371 yards and four touchdowns, and UT’s Chris Brazzell II torched UGA’s Daniel Harris one-on-one: four targets, four catches, 90 yards, two touchdowns. Offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb should find matchups for receivers Ryan Williams and Germie Bernard — and perhaps Isaiah Horton, who has caught nine of nine passes for 105 yards and 2 scores — to exploit.
The Georgia run defense is really strong, with linebackers CJ Allen and Raylen Wilson combining for 28 tackles against the run with four run stops (tackles at or behind the line). But despite blitzing a decent amount, the Dawgs rank just 102nd in sack rate and 111th in yards allowed per dropback. Without marked improvement there, Bama might get away without having to run much.
After sleepwalking through the Austin Peay game in Week 2, the Georgia offense woke up when it had to against Tennessee. The Dawgs were hit-and-miss — six possessions with 69 or more yards, four of 9 or fewer — primarily because negative plays derailed some drives (something that right tackle Earnest Greene III‘s continued injury issues won’t help). But Gunner Stockton was 8-for-11 for 111 yards and 2 touchdowns on third and fourth down.
Efficiency levels are solid despite the negative plays, but big plays are an issue.
You’d rather be near USC or Florida State on that chart, not Iowa and Utah. Stockton is just 3-for-11 on passes thrown more than 20 yards downfield — one of those was the game-saving, fourth-down touchdown lob to London Humphrey against Tennessee — and the Dawgs have gotten some big gainers off short, quick passes to the bouncy Zach Branch, but this isn’t a naturally explosive offense.
Alabama’s defense hasn’t created nearly enough negative plays — the Tide are 68th in sack rate and 83rd in stuff rate — and their opponents’ third-down conversion rate has risen in each game. (Wisconsin was 6-for-11.) That could make them vulnerable to Georgia’s short game, but they could counter that somewhat with big-play prevention: They got burned for four gains of 25 or more against Florida State, but they’ve given up just one such play since.
Because Georgia saved itself against Tennessee with yet another overtime win (its past three wins against power conference teams went to OT), the Dawgs have a little less to lose Saturday. But that’s the fun thing about college football: try to tell the 93,033 in attendance that one team needs this one a little more than the other. Huge games will always feel like huge games, and Bama-Georgia will always be a huge game.
Current line: UGA -3.5 | SP+ projection: Bama by 0.7 | FPI projection: UGA by 1.1
Ole Miss’ revenge or another LSU thriller?
No. 4 LSU at No. 13 Ole Miss (3:30 p.m., ABC)
In five seasons from 1958 to 1962, Ole Miss and LSU met as top-15 opponents five times. You could say it was the Bama-Georgia of the day. (I guess that would make Billy Cannon’s punt return the “Second-and-26” of the day, especially because it probably prevented an Ole Miss national title.) For the next 60 years, though, these types of meetings were sparse. In 2003, Nick Saban’s LSU took down Eli Manning and Ole Miss to decide the SEC West, but that was about it until last year, when the Tigers won a 29-26 overtime thriller without leading for a second.
Ole Miss finished last season second in SP+, but three heartbreaking losses kept them out of the CFP. It felt like an epic missed opportunity because how often can Ole Miss expect to field a team that good? Well, the Rebels are unbeaten and seventh in SP+, and they’ve already avenged one of 2024’s heartbreakers by knocking off Kentucky in Lexington.
It looks like quarterback Trinidad Chambliss will start again for the Rebels. Stepping in for the injured Austin Simmons, the Ferris State transfer has completed 42 of 62 passes for 719 yards and 4 touchdowns with only two sacks, adding 198 non-sack rushing yards and two more scores. The approach with Chambliss has been simple: don’t worry about complicated intermediate passing, just woo defensive backs close to the line of scrimmage with relentless short passing, then hit ’em deep. He has completed 7 of 9 passes thrown 25 or more yards downfield.
Note the big gap in the middle of that pass map. With Chambliss’ legs, a heavy dose of running back Kewan Lacy and receivers like Harrison Wallace III capable of gaining solid yardage on short passes, the Rebels have a lot of ways to stay on schedule. That’s important because LSU dominates when teams get off schedule.
Opponents are just 2-for-26 against LSU on third-and-7 or more, and the Tigers have yet to allow more than 10 points in a game. Brian Kelly did well in the transfer portal by adding former USF defensive tackle Bernard Gooden up front (4 run stops, 6 pressures, 1 forced fumble) and former Virginia Tech cornerback Mansoor Delane. Opponents have targeted Delane’s man 20 times, and he has allowed just three completions with a pick and four breakups.
The LSU defense has controlled games so well that Tigers quarterback Garrett Nussmeier hasn’t had to take many chances. He has thrown only 11 passes more than 20 yards downfield, and he has completed only two of them with an interception. Opponents are blitzing a lot because of LSU’s unproven line and a poor run game, but Nussmeier is completing 73% of all his other passes. Wideouts Aaron Anderson, Barion Brown and Zavion Thomas and tight end Bauer Sharp have all caught at least 11 balls.
The passing game has been sharp enough that a dreadful run game hasn’t yet cost the Tigers. But whew, is it dreadful: LSU is 108th in rushing success rate. Caden Durham got hurt last week against Southeastern Louisiana, but he’s averaging only 4.1 yards per carry. Getting blue-chip freshman Harlem Berry (5.8 per carry with more yards after contact) more touches might not be a bad idea.
The Tigers’ reliance on the pass creates an interesting contrast: Ole Miss’ pass defense has been efficient (18th in passing success rate allowed), but the run defense has been awful (104th). Defensive coordinator Pete Golding rarely blitzes, and Rebel defenders rarely end up in the backfield, but they do a good job of tackling and cluttering passing lanes — opponents have completed just 49% of their passes, third lowest in FBS. You move the ball on Ole Miss on the ground, but LSU moves the ball through the air. We love some nice narrative tension!
Current line: Ole Miss -1.5 | SP+ projection: Ole Miss by 5.7 | FPI projection: Ole Miss by 6.5
The No. 1 team heads west
No. 1 Ohio State at Washington (3:30 p.m., CBS)
It appears conventional wisdom has forgotten about the Washington Huskies. The 2023 national runners-up rank first nationally in points per drive and ninth in yards per play, they have beaten three overwhelmed opponents by an average of 56-18, and they boast one of the nation’s most entertaining backfields with dual-threat quarterback Demond Williams Jr. and tackle-breaking back Jonah Coleman. But they have zero AP poll votes. How?
Granted, they probably won’t get any votes next week either because they will probably lose to Ohio State. The top-ranked Buckeyes took a week off after moving to 3-0, and they head west with one of the best defenses in the country.
With safety Caleb Downs and veteran breakout stars in tackle Caden Curry and OLB Arvell Reese, the Buckeyes likely have the tools to frustrate a young quarterback like Williams, and considering Washington’s banged-up defense ranks 61st in points allowed per drive without having played a top-80 offense (per SP+), it’s hard to see the Huskies making enough stops.
Despite one-third of its games coming against Texas’ excellent defense, Ohio State ranks second in passing success rate and completion rate. The Buckeyes’ run game isn’t nearly as strong as we’re used to seeing — then again, rising freshman Bo Jackson (no relation) has gained 217 yards in his first 18 carries — but quarterback Julian Sayin has thrived throwing to stars Jeremiah Smith and Carnell Tate (combined: 32 catches, 534 yards, 6 touchdowns), and I don’t know how UW disrupts that connection with star cornerback Tacario Davis questionable and nickel Dyson McCutcheon out. (Linebacker Buddah Al-Uqdah is also out.)
So why am I giving this game marquee treatment instead of sticking it in the playlist below? A few reasons:
• This is Sayin’s first road start, and plenty of awesome, young quarterbacks have stumbled on the road early in their careers. Washington also blitzes a lot and has at least one excellent pass rusher in Jacob Lane.
• Net YAC! I wrote about the impact of yards after contact this week, and Washington is one of the nation’s best teams at grinding out YAC and allowing none for opponents.
• The Huskies’ offense ranks first in third-down conversion rate (75.0%) and, combined with Coleman successfully fighting for extra yards, could move the chains and frustrate Ohio State’s defense.
• Everyone fails a test at some point, but in five career starts, Williams has completed 78% of his passes at 14.6 yards per completion with 402 non-sack rushing yards and only one interception. He’s incredible, and there’s nothing like a visit from the No. 1 team to introduce yourself to the world.
Yes, Ohio State probably wins. But Washington might not need many breaks to take this one down to the wire.
Current line: OSU -7.5 (down from -9.5 Sunday) | SP+ projection: OSU by 10.2 | FPI projection: OSU by 5.0
YAC kings in action
That’s right, this week’s keyword is YAC. Yards after contact are the secret weapon for teams exceeding expectations, and quite a few Week 5 games will highlight 2025’s YAC kings. That includes two games pitting YAC kings against one another.
No. 8 Florida State at Virginia (Friday, 7 p.m., ESPN).
FSU has vaulted back into the top 10 as if 2024’s collapse was a figment of our imagination. The Seminoles are fifth in net YAC and second in rushing yards per game — veteran coordinator Gus Malzahn has gone back to his rushing roots, and it’s pretty spicy to watch. Virginia, however, is eighth in net YAC and has leaped from 74th to 42nd in SP+. An offense with seven transfer starters, including RB J’Mari Taylor, has improved almost as much as Florida State’s.
Current line: FSU -6.5 | SP+ projection: FSU by 2.9 | FPI projection: FSU by 2.5
No. 11 Indiana at Iowa (3:30 p.m., Peacock).
Indiana (sixth in net YAC) hits the road to face an Iowa team (ninth in net YAC) that has upset four top-15 teams at home in the past decade. Curt Cignetti’s Hoosiers have to watch out for a letdown after last week’s Illinois blowout, but while Iowa’s offense has scored 30 points three times this season, the only decent defense the Hawkeyes have faced, Iowa State’s, held them to 13. Kinnick Stadium will need to summon loads of magic (and YAC) for the Hawkeyes to take this one.
Current line: Indiana -7.5 | SP+ projection: Indiana by 9.2 | FPI projection: Indiana by 8.7
No. 21 USC at No. 23 Illinois (noon, Fox).
Two weeks ago, USC (seventh in net YAC) wobbled but kept it together in a 33-17 win at Purdue. This midwestern trip should be trickier. Illinois got YAC’d to pieces by Indiana and will probably respond with physicality, but the Illini still must slow down Jayden Maiava and a great USC passing game.
Current line: USC -6.5 | SP+ projection: USC by 7.6 | FPI projection: USC by 6.3
No. 25 BYU at Colorado (10:15 p.m., ESPN).
BYU (fourth in net YAC) is just mean. The Cougars rank first in points allowed per drive and force tons of negative plays, and running back LJ Martin is a great security blanket for freshman QB Bear Bachmeier. Colorado’s offense found its footing last week against Wyoming, but the BYU defense is a different obstacle.
Current line: BYU -6.5 | SP+ projection: BYU by 8.6 | FPI projection: BYU by 8.1
Rice at Navy (3:30 p.m., CBSSN).
If you’re a fan of the multiview box, this one will be a lovely complement to LSU-Ole Miss and Ohio State-Washington. Not only do you get another glimpse at unbeaten Navy (first in net YAC), but you also get to watch a Rice option offense averaging 246 rushing yards per game.
Current line: Navy -14.5 | SP+ projection: Navy by 17.9 | FPI projection: Navy by 15.7
Virginia Tech at NC State (7 p.m., The CW).
Hollywood Smothers leads the nation in yards after contact, and he has been the primary driver of NC State’s 3-1 start. The defense gives up far too many big plays, and for all of Virginia Tech’s flaws, receivers Ayden Greene and Donavon Greene are explosive. But you’re watching this one for Smothers.
Current line: NC State -9.5 | SP+ projection: NC State by 9.7 | FPI projection: NC State by 3.5
UMass at No. 20 Missouri (7:30 p.m., ESPNU).
OK, you don’t need to watch much of this, especially during a loaded prime-time slot. But any glimpse of Mizzou (second in net YAC) and backs Ahmad Hardy and Jamal Roberts (combined: 898 yards and eight TDs) is worth the effort.
Current line: Mizzou -43.5 | SP+ projection: Mizzou by 52.5 | FPI projection: Mizzou by 44.5
Week 5 chaos superfecta
We’re once again using this space to will chaos into existence, looking at four carefully curated games with pretty big point spreads and mashing them together into a much more upset-friendly number. Thanks to San Diego State’s shocking blowout of Cal, we’re now 3-for-4 this season. Our power is only growing stronger.
This week, SP+ says there’s only a 46% chance that Indiana (72% win probability at Iowa), Utah (83% at West Virginia), Houston (85% at Oregon State) and Memphis (90% at FAU) all win. Someone’s suffering a letdown game after either a big win (Indiana or Memphis) or a long flight (Utah or Houston).
Week 5 playlist
Here are some more games you should pay attention to if you want the absolute most out of the weekend, from both information and entertainment perspectives.
Friday evening
No. 24 TCU at Arizona State (9 p.m., Fox). It took a couple of weeks, but ASU has officially checked into the 2025 season with an easy win over Texas State and a buzzer-beater over Baylor in Waco. The Sun Devils haven’t lost a conference game in more than 11 months, but TCU has very the part in 2025. Pair this with FSU-Virginia, and you’ve got a hell of a Friday night!
Current line: ASU -3.5 | SP+ projection: TCU by 1.3 | FPI projection: TCU by 0.1
Early Saturday
No. 22 Notre Dame at Arkansas (noon, ABC). Notre Dame and Arkansas have won three games by a combined 113 points and lost four by a combined 11. That’s pretty tough to do, and one of them will head into October with a losing record despite obvious upside. I’ll be really disappointed if we don’t get a track meet here, considering their seven games have averaged 69.7 total points thus far.
Current line: ND -3.5 (down from -6.5) | SP+ projection: Arkansas by 2.2 | FPI projection: ND by 1.4
Cincinnati at Kansas (noon, TNT). I think Cincinnati might be good. I know Kansas is. The Jayhawks led Missouri in the fourth quarter and beat three other opponents (including West Virginia) by a combined 118-24. Cincinnati’s offense ranks second nationally in success rate — second rushing, third passing — and the defense ranks first in yards allowed per successful play. If they figure out how not to completely stink on third downs, the Bearcats could pull an upset.
Current line: KU -4.5 (down from -6.5) | SP+ projection: KU by 9.8 | FPI projection: KU by 5.2
Duke at Syracuse (noon, ACCN). How good is Rickie Collins? The sophomore LSU transfer — and new Syracuse starter — was just 3-for-8 against Clemson after stepping in for the injured Steve Angeli, but his 18-yard touchdown pass to Justus Ross-Simmons put away the upset. Duke’s pass defense has been surprisingly disastrous this season, but the Blue Devils can rush the passer and potentially stress Collins.
Current line: Duke -6.5 (up from -4.5) | SP+ projection: ‘Cuse by 4.0 | FPI projection: ‘Cuse by 3.1
Louisville at Pitt (noon, ESPN2). Louisville has yet to play a top-50 opponent, per SP+, but the Cardinals have a good pass defense and maybe the most explosive running back corps in FBS. Pitt, meanwhile, has an explosive passing game and maybe the best run defense Louisville will face. I think Louisville’s really good, but Pitt is pretty good at making things messy and thriving in the chaos.
Current line: Louisville -4.5 | SP+ projection: Louisville by 3.6 | FPI projection: Louisville by 1.7
Rutgers at Minnesota (noon, BTN). For the second straight week, Rutgers will try to entice a known rock-fight lover into a wide-open battle. Both teams are coming off frustrating losses — Minnesota lost by 13 to a Cal team that proceeded to get drubbed by San Diego State, and Rutgers dragged Iowa into a track meet but lost 38-28. The loser of this one just hopes to get to 6-6.
Current line: Minnesota -4.5 | SP+ projection: Minnesota by 2.8 | FPI projection: Minnesota by 1.2
No. 14 Georgia Tech at Wake Forest (noon, ESPN). Wake Forest has outscored opponents 66-30 in the first and third quarters but has been outscored 23-10 in the second and fourth. The Demon Deacons led NC State 14-0 two weeks ago but were outscored 34-10 from there. That’s probably a bad sign against a Tech team that seems to have some 60-minute staying power (the Jackets are at least +15 in every quarter).
Current line: Tech -13.5 | SP+ projection: Tech by 14.1 | FPI projection: Tech by 11.7
Utah State at No. 18 Vanderbilt (12:45 p.m., SECN). We don’t yet know how good these teams are — USU has overachieved against SP+ projections by 15.0 points per game (10th nationally) while Vandy is at +16.8 (eighth). Clark Lea’s Commodores are likely quite a bit better than Bronco Mendenhall’s Aggies, but if Miles Davis and the USU run game get going, they could make this uncomfortable for a bit.
Current line: Vandy -23.5 (up from -21.5) | SP+ projection: Vandy by 24.2 | FPI projection: Vandy by 22.7
Saturday afternoon
Auburn at No. 9 Texas A&M (3:30 p.m., ESPN). Since 2013, these teams have played games decided by scores of 45-41, 43-41, 41-38, 28-24 and 13-10. The matchup scores pretty high on the “potential nonsense” scale, and it’s a huge game for both teams: Auburn is a projected favorite in only two games the rest of the season and needs to initiate a rally before Georgia and Missouri come to town next month. A&M, meanwhile, needs to get to 6-0 before a three-game SEC road trip. A&M gives up lots of big plays, but Auburn doesn’t make many.
Current line: A&M -6.5 | SP+ projection: A&M by 5.0 | FPI projection: A&M by 4.7
No. 15 Tennessee at Mississippi State (4:15 p.m., SECN). Tennessee has reverted to its track meet days, scoring at least 41 points in every game and allowing at least 24 in three. The Vols are also very good. Mississippi State might be too. The Bulldogs have overachieved against SP+ projections by 9.5 points per game this season, and, well, if they hit that mark Saturday, they’re 5-0.
Current line: Vols -7.5 | SP+ projection: Vols by 7.7 | FPI projection: Vols by 6.5
UCLA at Northwestern (3:30 p.m., BTN). I can’t tell you to actually watch this game — I have a strong sense of morbid curiosity, but it only goes so far. Still, I bring this game up for one reason: UCLA has a 22% chance of going 0-12 this season, per SP+, and this is the only game remaining in which the Bruins aren’t double-digit projected underdogs. Lose this one, and 0-12 odds skyrocket.
Current line: NU -6.5 | SP+ projection: NU by 2.0 | FPI projection: NU by 7.0
Saturday evening
Arizona at No. 14 Iowa State (7 p.m., ESPN). The first Arizona-ISU game since 1968 is a big one: The teams are a combined 7-0, and the winner will be in the top tier of Big 12 contenders. When Rocco Becht and ISU attempt to pass — a semi-frequent occurrence because of a shaky run game — it will be strength vs. strength. Becht is quite efficient, but ‘Zona ranks second nationally in yards allowed per dropback.
Current line: ISU -5.5 | SP+ projection: ISU by 8.3 | FPI projection: ISU by 2.8
Appalachian State at Boise State (7:30 p.m., FS1). Boise State is shifting into gear behind a ridiculously explosive run game and an aggressive defense. App State is struggling offensively, but the Mountaineers’ defense ranks second nationally in havoc rate (TFLs, passes defended and forced fumbles per play) and dominates third downs. Can they score enough to make things interesting?
Current line: BSU -16.5 | SP+ projection: BSU by 18.0 | FPI projection: BSU by 12.9
Late Saturday
FCS: No. 10 Idaho at No. 4 Montana (10:15 p.m., ESPN2). Time for the Little Brown Stein! BYU-Colorado is the only late game in FBS, and the Big Sky gets a national showcase. Idaho has lost a pair of FBS games by just six combined points and boasts a super fun dual-threat QB in Joshua Wood. Montana can either throw over you (Keali’i Ah Yat is averaging 287.7 passing yards per game) or run through you (Eli Gillman is averaging 9.1 yards per carry). The Big Sky loves a good rock fight, but this one has track meet potential.
SP+ projection: Griz by 13.1
Smaller-school showcase
We always save a shout-out for the glorious lower levels of the sport. In addition to Idaho-Montana, here are three more games you should track.
FCS: No. 18 South Dakota at No. 1 North Dakota State (2 p.m., ESPN+). Before the season, I thought this might be the FCS game of the year. South Dakota stumbled early, however, and will now try to beat FCS’ best team with turnovers and random big plays. NDSU has been in fifth gear all season, winning three games by a combined 138-17. The skill corps combo of RB Barika Kpeenu and WR Bryce Lance is unfair.
SP+ projection: NDSU by 25.7
FCS: Brown at Harvard (6 p.m., ESPN+). The Ivy League looked fantastic in its season debut last week, and these teams — which beat poor Stetson and Georgetown by a combined 105-7 — were as good as anyone. Both teams created loads of big-pass plays, and whoever prevents them better in this one (probably Harvard) moves to 2-0.
SP+ projection: Harvard by 18.1
Division II: No. 8 California (Pa.) at No. 4 Slippery Rock (6 p.m., local streaming). I named Slippery Rock as a small-school team you should adopt, and the Rock have responded with wins both dramatic (overtime over Shepherd) and resounding (42-0 over Shippensburg). Now comes a big test. The Cal Vulcans are allowing 4.8 yards per play and forcing loads of turnovers, and safety Alexie Sangster Jr. might be one of the best DBs in Division II.
SP+ projection: The Rock by 8.0
Sports
Week 5 preview: Georgia-Alabama, key conference matchups, plus quarterbacks to know
Published
14 hours agoon
September 27, 2025By
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One of the most anticipated weekends on the 2025 college football calendar is upon us.
The headliner comes Saturday night when No. 6 Oregon visits No. 3 Penn State. A potentially season-defining occasion, the clash of Big Ten powers, will test quarterbacks Drew Allar (Penn State) and Dante Moore (Oregon), Nittany Lions coach James Franklin and the Ducks’ backbone as they step into the hostile confines of Beaver Stadium in Week 5.
Elsewhere, eyes will fall on a trio of juicy SEC matchups: Alabama–Georgia, Auburn–Texas A&M and Ole Miss–LSU, all of which could hold significant implications for the conference title race and the College Football Playoff field.
Ahead of a series of high-level games, our college football reporters deliver their insights on keys to the weekend’s biggest matchups, five quarterbacks putting themselves on the map this fall and the best quotes so far from Week 5. — Eli Lederman
Jump to:
Georgia-Alabama | Quarterbacks to know
Key conference matchups
Quotes of the Week
What does each team need to capitalize on to win?
Georgia: If the Bulldogs are going to defeat the Crimson Tide for only the second time in the past 11 meetings, they’ll have to avoid getting themselves in another big hole — and take advantage of playing Alabama at home for the first time in nearly 10 years.
In last season’s 41-34 loss in Tuscaloosa, the Bulldogs trailed by three touchdowns before the end of the first quarter and by 28 points less than 18 minutes into the game. Georgia put together a furious rally in the fourth quarter, scoring three straight touchdowns to grab a 34-33 lead.
The Crimson Tide won on Jalen Milroe‘s 75-yard scoring pass to Ryan Williams with 2:18 to go.
Georgia had a similar slow start in its 44-41 victory in overtime at Tennessee on Sept. 13. The Volunteers scored touchdowns on their first three possessions to take a 21-7 lead, and the Bulldogs had to come from behind on the road. They were fortunate that Tennessee missed a 43-yard field goal attempt to take the lead near the end of regulation.
The Bulldogs didn’t do a good job of containing Milroe last season. He threw for 374 yards with two touchdowns and ran for 117 yards with two scores, including several long runs to keep drives alive. New Tide quarterback Ty Simpson isn’t as fast as Milroe, but he also isn’t a statue standing in the pocket.
Williams burned Georgia’s secondary on some big plays last season, finishing with six catches for 177 yards. The Bulldogs had similar problems against Tennessee’s fast-paced offense, and they’ll have to shore up those mistakes and play better on the back end. Getting pressure on Simpson would also help; the Bulldogs had only four sacks in their first three games this season.
On offense, Georgia needs to do a better job of protecting quarterback Gunner Stockton, who took too many hits at Tennessee. The Bulldogs need to find more ways to get the ball into the hands of Zachariah Branch, and tight ends Oscar Delp and Lawson Luckie also need to get their share of touches. Shoring up the right side of the offensive line, which has been a trouble spot, will allow them to be more involved in the passing game. — Mark Schlabach
Alabama: It has not been pretty for Alabama on the road under Kalen DeBoer. Alabama is 2-4 since he became head coach, including a 31-17 loss to Florida State to open the season. In that loss, the Crimson Tide looked lethargic at times and ended up being beaten up front on both sides of the ball. So to give themselves any chance against Georgia, their first road game since Week 1, they simply must play better on the offensive and defensive lines. Getting defensive lineman Tim Keenan III back from an ankle injury will be huge in that respect. Alabama has struggled to rush the passer without him, and has only four sacks on the season. Georgia has done a nice job using Gunner Stockton in the run game when needed, so slowing him down is also going to be key. That is also an area in which Alabama struggled against the Seminoles.
On the other side of the ball, offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb said it would continue to rotate its starting offensive line unit to find the right combination. Getting Jam Miller back at running back is also is a big addition, not only because of his running ability but his presence as a pass blocker in the backfield. But more than anything, defensive coordinator Kane Wommack said the team was eager to prove it has learned how to handle adversity in-game, something that cost it in the opener.
“There’s a difference when you have to go on the road, particularly in the SEC and in a hostile environment and respond to adversity,” Wommack said. “At times, we have been a team that has been reactionary to adversity, and we’ve got to be more responsive. It’s at the forefront of our minds, and I expect to see a very responsive football team on Saturday.” — Andrea Adelson
Five quarterbacks who are putting themselves on the map
Curt Cignetti found a gem via the transfer portal yet again. Mendoza was solid at Cal the past two years, but he was surrounded with little talent and playing in an offense that probably didn’t maximize his skill set. Turned loose at Indiana, he has looked like a genuine Heisman Trophy candidate, including a dominant five-touchdown performance in a win over Illinois. For the season, Mendoza has 14 touchdown passes without an interception.
When Castellanos talked smack about Alabama this summer, it became a national punchline. When he backed it up with a win over the Tide in Week 1, he had the last laugh. Through three games, Castellanos’ 91.6 Total QBR ranks third nationally, though he’ll be in for a test the next two weeks — a road trip to Virginia on Friday for what could be a shootout and then a showdown against rival Miami. If Castellanos takes down another top-five team, the Heisman might be his to lose.
A part of the same class as Drew Allar, Pribula wasn’t able to get onto the field with any regularity at Penn State. He entered the portal and landed at Missouri, but he didn’t win the starting job there until just before the opener. And yet, once he was given his chance to shine, Pribula has looked like a star. He has racked up 11 TDs so far this season and has the Tigers undefeated and trending up in the rankings.
The sixth-year senior has been through his share of growing pains. He was a well-regarded recruit at Colorado but was part of the brutal 2021 season that led to the arrival of coach Deion Sanders, then transferred to Nevada, where his team struggled again. Now he has found the right fit at Memphis, where he has the Tigers 4-0 and well positioned to snag the Group of 6’s playoff spot.
North Texas is 4-0 and Mestemaker has 10 TD passes and no picks. It’d be a great story if that was all there was to it. But this rags-to-riches tale goes much deeper. Mestemaker wasn’t even the starter at his high school and arrived at UNT as a walk-on. He got the start in last year’s bowl game after Chandler Morris entered the portal, then beat out Reese Poffenbarger for the starting job this fall. He has rewarded the Mean Green’s belief with a red-hot start to the season. — David Hale
Biggest things that need to happen in these matchups
Auburn-Texas A&M: This series has been a strange one since 2021. The Aggies won twice at home, both times by 17 points. Auburn won twice at home, by three in 2022 and then two last year, in a 43-41 upset in four overtimes. This game, in College Station, will be another interesting one. The Aggies are coming off a bye week after their upset of Notre Dame, their first nonconference road win against an AP top-10 team since 1979. Auburn lost 24-17 at Oklahoma and is 0-5 under Hugh Freeze against ranked teams on the road. For the Tigers, they’ll first need to shore up an offensive line that gave up eight sacks on Jackson Arnold from a standard pass rush. But Auburn will look to move the ball with its rushing attack (198 yards per game, 5.0 yards per carry) against the Aggies, who are giving up 139 yards per game on the ground and are 102nd nationally in scoring defense at 28.7 points. But if the Aggies can get Arnold into being one-dimensional and having to play from behind, that will give them an advantage. They can do so by utilizing the dynamic duo of Mario Craver, the SEC’s leading receiver with 443 yards, even with the bye week (he had seven catches for 207 yards against Notre Dame), and KC Concepcion, who had four catches for 82 yards against the Irish. — Dave Wilson
LSU-Ole Miss: Last season’s showdown went to overtime in Baton Rouge. Expect another tight battle that comes down to details and who capitalizes on opportunities. Third-down conversions are going to be essential. Ole Miss’ offense is 5-of-17 on third and medium (3 to 7 yards) this season, and LSU’s defense is getting stops on 14 of 22 chances in that spot. This is where Lane Kiffin’s decision at QB becomes even more critical. Trinidad Chambliss is averaging 12.3 yards per carry on third downs and has yet to take a third-down sack. Can he be efficient in those high-pressure moments against the best defense he has faced? For LSU’s offense, the big question is injured running back Caden Durham‘s availability and finding answers in the run game so Garrett Nussmeier isn’t frequently stuck in third-and-long. The Tigers’ average third-down distance this season has been 7.9 yards, which ranks 114th in FBS, according to ESPN Research. — Max Olson
Oregon-Penn State: Quarterback Drew Allar needs to be a reason — perhaps the reason — why the Nittany Lions notch a signature win in a game in which they have most of the advantages. Allar wasn’t overly sharp in his past two performances, completing fewer than 58% of his passes against both Villanova and Florida International. He will need to be sharper against a talented but quite young Oregon defense, and start to change his big-game rep. Oregon must show it can handle one of the toughest environments in college football, Beaver Stadium at night in a White Out. The game marks a big growth opportunity for Ducks quarterback Dante Moore, a first-year starter, and also promising young players such as wide receiver Dakorien Moore and defensive backs Brandon Finney Jr. and Aaron Flowers. The Ducks visited Michigan and Wisconsin in 2024, but they haven’t faced an elite Big Ten opponent on the road until now. — Adam Rittenberg
Quotes of the Week
“We need this place rocking,” Penn State coach James Franklin said ahead of the Nittany Lions’ White Out game against No. 6 Oregon. “Need to have a distinct home-field advantage. We always do, but I’m expecting this to be an environment like no one has ever seen.”
“We’ll do everything we can to be prepared for that environment for sure,” said Oregon’s Dan Lanning, who was also asked about the song “Mo Bamba”, which has become a fixture of No. 3 Penn State home games. “I don’t love that song.”
“I would say he’s probably the hottest quarterback right now in all of college football,” Georgia’s Kirby Smart said of Alabama’s Ty Simpson ahead of the Bulldogs’ Week 5 visit from the No. 17 Crimson Tide. “His two last outings, I don’t know [if] I’ve seen an incompletion. The ball does not hit the ground. He’s been accurate. He’s been quick with the ball. They’re really hard to defend because of their skill. They’ve got tremendous skill — receivers, backs, tight ends. But you got to have a trigger guy that can get those guys the ball and they do.”
“We ain’t with that get-back stuff,” Colorado’s Deion Sanders said as his team prepares to face No. 25 BYU nine months after the Cougars blew out the Buffaloes in the 2024 Valero Alamo Bowl. “I ain’t with that get-back stuff. I’m with that let’s-get-them stuff. They played their butts off, kicked our butts in the bowl game. Now we have a whole new team.”
“I always love when you guys say that, like, ‘Oh, OK, now we’ll go actually, like, try and game-plan really hard,” Ole Miss’ Lane Kiffin said with the Rebels set to host No. 4 LSU on Saturday. “It’s OK. My boss says the same things when we play Arkansas. ‘Hey, I really need this one.’ Oh, OK, well then we’ll actually, like, try this week. We were just going to not try.”
“Is it hot in here or is it just me every week?” Oklahoma State’s Mike Gundy speaking to reporters three days after the Cowboys 19-12 loss to Tulsa and less than 24 hours before he was fired Tuesday morning after his 21st season in charge of the program.
Sports
From unsettled playoff races to home run records: What to watch in MLB’s final weekend
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14 hours agoon
September 27, 2025By
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David SchoenfieldSep 26, 2025, 07:00 AM ET
Close- Covers MLB for ESPN.com
- Former deputy editor of Page 2
- Been with ESPN.com since 1995
We made it to the final weekend of the 2025 MLB regular season.
It has been one wild, fun ride, especially if you’re a fan of the Milwaukee Brewers or Seattle Mariners or Cleveland Guardians — less so, especially recently, if you’re a fan of the Detroit Tigers or New York Mets.
What’s at stake this weekend? From teams playing out the string to those who are battling for a chance to play October baseball, here are the biggest storylines to follow over the next three days.
Battle for the AL Central: Miracle comeback or all-time collapse?
The American League Central was over … except it wasn’t. The Detroit Tigers finally snapped their eight-game losing streak with a 4-2 win over the Cleveland Guardians on Thursday, but, the Guardians have still won 17 of their last 20 games while the Tigers have lost 11 of 13. The teams are now tied for the division lead heading into the final weekend, and Cleveland holds the tiebreaker having won the season series — putting the Guardians on the verge of the biggest September comeback in MLB history to win a pennant or division (currently 8.5 games when the 1964 Cardinals chased down the Phillies)
Check out this timeline of the AL Central standings and odds for the Tigers and Guardians to win the division, via FanGraphs:
July 8: Cleveland 15.5 games back of Detroit (Tigers: 98.8%, Guardians: 0.1%)
Aug. 25: 12.5 games back (99.9%, 0.0%)
Sept. 1: 10.5 games back (99.8%, 0.2%)
Sept. 10: 9.5 games back (99.9%, 0.1%)
Sept. 17: 4.5 games back (95.4%, 4.6%)
Sept. 20: 1 game back (62.3%, 37.7%)
Sept. 24: Cleveland up one game (18.8%, 81.2%)
Sept. 25: Tied for division lead (34.1%, 65.9%)
The Guardians now lead the division by that tiebreaker heading into the final weekend after just winning two out of three games against the Tigers. The The Guardians host the Rangers while the Tigers are on the road in Boston, and since the Red Sox have yet to clinch a wild card, that Detroit-Boston series will have a definite playoff feel to it.
But maybe the Tigers can win the final wild card?
The Tigers do at least have a fallback option: They’re one game ahead of the Houston Astros, who snapped a five-game losing streak with a win on Thursday, and just one game behind the Red Sox. Detroit owns the tiebreaker over Houston, so the Astros will have to finish with a better record to claim the final wild card and avoid missing their first postseason since 2016. The Astros finish in Anaheim but will be without their top two pitchers in Hunter Brown and Framber Valdez, who started the final two games of the series against the Athletics.
One important note for the Tigers: Tarik Skubal last started on Tuesday, so he would be ready to go on four days of rest Sunday, if needed. If the Tigers have already clinched the wild card (or division title) by then, look for them to skip Skubal and have him ready to start Game 1 of the wild-card series on Tuesday.
To make matters even more confusing: The Red Sox, Guardians, Tigers and Astros could all finish 88-74, which is the scenario if the Tigers take two of three against the Red Sox, the Guardians win two of three against Texas, and the Astros sweep the Angels. If that happens, the Astros are out, having lost the season series against all three teams and owning the worst winning percentage against the other three clubs.
Who wins the final National League wild card?
On Sept. 1, the Mets had a 94.5% chance of making the playoffs via FanGraphs, but after going 11-17 in August, they’ve gone 9-13 in September. Their collapse might not be as disastrous as Detroit’s, but the Tigers also don’t possess a $340 million payroll. The Mets’ second-half woes have allowed the Cincinnati Reds and Arizona Diamondbacks to stay alive — and the Reds are only 12-10 in September, having just lost two to the Pirates. The Diamondbacks, meanwhile, were seven games under at the trade deadline when they dealt away Eugenio Suarez, Josh Naylor, Merrill Kelly and Shelby Miller, essentially punting on the season.
The Mets beat the Cubs on Thursday and the Reds beat the Pirates — thanks to Noelvi Marte‘s home run robbery in the ninth to preserve the 2-1 victory — so the Mets head into Friday at 82-77, the Reds at 81-78 and the Diamondbacks at 80-79. The schedule and probable starters for each team:
Mets at Miami Marlins (Brandon Sproat, Clay Holmes/Sean Manaea, David Peterson)
The Mets haven’t officially announced their Saturday and Sunday starters, although Holmes and Manaea have been tag-teaming starts lately while Peterson would be in line to pitch Sunday, although he has hit a wall and has a 12.54 ERA over his past five starts. The Marlins pushed Sandy Alcantara back a day to start Friday’s series opener.
Reds at Milwaukee Brewers (Zack Littell, Andrew Abbott, Brady Singer)
Hunter Greene started on Wednesday, so he’s in line to start the first game of the playoffs if the Reds make it. Quinn Priester is scheduled to start for the Brewers on Friday and, get this, they’ve won 17 consecutive games he has started.
Diamondbacks at San Diego Padres (Zac Gallen, Eduardo Rodriguez, Brandon Pfaadt)
Gallen had a rocky first four months but is 6-2 with a 2.82 ERA since the beginning of August. How all-in the Padres are will be determined by whether the NL West is still up for grabs.
Finally, there’s a good chance the tiebreaker comes into play — something the Diamondbacks are familiar with after tying with the Mets and Atlanta Braves last season for the final two wild-card spots, only to be eliminated via the tiebreaker rule. This year’s scenarios:
• Reds over Mets (won season series 4-2).
• Reds over Diamondbacks (won season series 4-2).
• Mets/Diamondbacks: To be determined. They split the season series and the second tiebreaker is intradivision record, with the Mets currently 24-24 and the Diamondbacks 25-23. The third tiebreaker is intraleague record and the Mets are 58-53 and the Diamondbacks 55-56.
Who wins the AL East?
The Toronto Blue Jays were five games up on Sept. 16 but have gone 2-6 while the New York Yankees have gone 6-1 — so now, the two teams are tied. Toronto does own the tiebreaker, having won the season series 8-5. The Yankees host the Baltimore Orioles to finish up while the Blue Jays host the Tampa Bay Rays. Scheduled starters:
Blue Jays: Shane Bieber, Trey Yesavage, Kevin Gausman
Yankees: Undecided, Cam Schlittler, Luis Gil
The Yankees started Max Fried on Wednesday and Carlos Rodon on Thursday, with an eye turned to starting them in the first two games of a wild-card series, so they’re out of the picture this weekend. Will Warren is the likely starter Friday.
The interesting name here is Yesavage, who has made just two career starts (allowing five runs in nine innings) after a recent call-up from the minors, where he posted a 3.12 ERA with an incredible 160 strikeouts in just 98 innings. The Blue Jays have already moved Jose Berrios to the bullpen, so it’s possible that Yesavage is part of the postseason rotation alongside Gausman and Bieber, with Max Scherzer and Chris Bassitt the other possibilities.
The other factor in play: If Gausman, who has been Toronto’s top starter in the second half with a 2.49 ERA, is needed Sunday to secure the division title, that would leave him out of the wild-card series if the Blue Jays end up finishing second in the division.
The AL’s top seed remains in play, with the red-hot Seattle Mariners a game behind the Yankees and Blue Jays. The Mariners do lose the tiebreaker to both teams, so they would have to finish with the better record to secure the No. 1 seed. The Mariners host the Los Angeles Dodgers to finish the season.
Raleigh’s improbable season continues, and after hitting home runs No. 59 and No. 60 in Wednesday’s AL West-clinching win for the Mariners, he’s two away from tying Judge’s AL record of 62.
Of course, “catch” has another meaning here: Can Raleigh catch Judge in the MVP race? Maybe he already has, as voters might find it impossible to ignore a catcher who has hit 60 home runs. Oddsmakers currently have Raleigh as the very slight betting favorite. But Judge, with another historic offensive season under his belt, holds a sizable lead in Baseball-Reference WAR, a metric voters won’t ignore. If Raleigh manages to get to 62, it can only help his case.
How many 50-home-run seasons will we have?
Other than the Raleigh Watch, it feels like the barrage of 50-homer seasons has flown a bit under the radar. We also have Kyle Schwarber with 56, Shohei Ohtani with 54 and Aaron Judge with 51 — matching 1998 (Mark McGwire, Sammy Sosa, Ken Griffey Jr., Greg Vaughn) and 2001 (Barry Bonds, Sosa, Luis Gonzalez, Alex Rodriguez) as the only seasons with four 50-homer sluggers. In fact, no other season has more than two.
But we could get five 50-home-run hitters with Eugenio Suarez sitting on 49, looking to join his Mariners teammate in the exclusive club. Suarez hit 36 of those home runs with Arizona before the trade to Seattle, but if he gets to 50, the Mariners will match the 1961 Yankees with Roger Maris (61) and Mickey Mantle (54) as the only team to employ two 50-homer hitters in the same season.
As for Schwarber, he’s two home runs away from tying Ryan Howard’s franchise record of 58, while Ohtani has already matched his own club record he set last season.
Who wins the NL batting title?
While Judge has the AL batting title locked up, the NL race is down to the Philadelphia Phillies‘ Trea Turner, hitting .305, and the Chicago Cubs‘ Nico Hoerner hitting .299, who will need a big weekend to catch Turner. Turner has been out since Sept. 7 with a hamstring injury but has taken live batting practice and might return this weekend, although manager Rob Thomson just said on Wednesday that Turner is still running at only 75%. At least it looks like the winner will finish with a .300 average; if Turner returns, he would have to go 0-for-11 to fall under .300.
This is the Rockies we’re talking about, so you already know it isn’t a good kind of history. They enter their final series at San Francisco with a rotation ERA of 6.64, tied with the 1996 Tigers as the worst in modern MLB history (since 1901). A few random factors about Rockies starters:
• They have thrown 100 pitches in a game just twice all season: Kyle Freeland threw 100 pitches on April 8 and German Marquez threw 103 on June 29.
• The only Rockies starter to pitch eight innings in a game: Freeland threw eight scoreless innings in a 3-0 win over the Padres — at Coors Field — on Sept. 5.
• The Rockies have three starters with at least 15 losses (Freeland, Marquez and Antonio Senzatela), the first team to do that since the 2003 Tigers.
• Rockies starters have allowed seven or more runs in a game 26 times.
We could keep going. It was an ugly season in Colorado.
A 163-game season? Devers has a shot
Here’s an off-the-radar storyline to watch this weekend, courtesy of ESPN research: Rafael Devers, if he plays in all three games against the Rockies, will become the first to play a 163-game season since Justin Morneau for the 2008 Twins.
There have been five players to play a 163-game season in the last 30 years. Morneau that season, Hideki Matsui for the 2003 Yankees, Albert Belle for the 1998 White Sox, Cal Ripken Jr. for the 1996 Orioles and Todd Zeile for the 1996 Phillies/Orioles.
Morneau’s 163rd game came in a tiebreaker against the White Sox to decide the AL Central and all the other players were on teams that had games declared ties because they were rained out after they became official (which was the rule at the time). Todd Zeile is the only player on that list to be traded during a 163-game season (like Devers was this season).
Of course, all of them pale in comparison to a record that will never be broken. In 1962, Dodgers star Maury Wills played all 162 regularly scheduled games, plus all three games of the best-of-three regular season playoff series with the Giants — for a total of 165 games played.
Will this be Clayton Kershaw‘s final start or game?
The future Hall of Famer announced his retirement last week and made his final start at Dodger Stadium last Friday, but he’s scheduled to start the season finale on Sunday in Seattle. With the Dodgers’ postseason rotation likely to feature Shohei Ohtani, Blake Snell, Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Tyler Glasnow, Kershaw looks like the odd man out. Keep in mind, though, that Ohtani has had at least six days off between all of his starts, and Snell has also had five or six days off for his starts, so it’s possible the Dodgers will use more than four starters in the postseason.
Kershaw pitched an inning in relief on Wednesday, making himself available rather than throwing his usual bullpen session between starts. It’s possible he pitches in relief in the postseason.
“We have six amazing starters,” Kershaw said. “And so it’s just … yeah, I can do the math. So if I want to be a part of it in any way, I’ll do whatever they want.”
With the Dodgers relegated to the best-of-three first round, however, there’s the chance he never gets in a game if they’re quickly eliminated.
With that in mind: Watch Sunday’s Dodgers game. It might be the last time you see one of the best pitchers of all time.
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