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The July 31 MLB trade deadline is just days away, so it’s time for a deadline week update to our top 50 trade candidates ranking.

The major league trade market is ever evolving, and to keep you updated, ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel and Jeff Passan have put together a list of potential trade candidates based on players’ performance — and that of the teams that could be involved in potential deals.

This is the most up-to-date accounting of where MLB’s trade market stands. While some of the players on the list are unlikely to be dealt, they’re at least being discussed in potential deals. Others might be making the list for the first time this week as their team’s fortunes have changed.

Note: Players ranked by value for their new team if traded, not likelihood of being dealt.


Chance of trade: 90%

Suarez is in a contract year and playing like one of the best players in baseball. Only Cal Raleigh and Aaron Judge have more home runs than his 33. Despite turning 34 years old before the trade deadline, Suarez is sitting near career highs in isolated power and wRC+ (which measures overall performance). His fielding metrics have declined in recent years, but he’s still an acceptable defender at third base. Even if the Diamondbacks don’t offload all their free agents to be, Suarez could move because they’ve got Jordan Lawlar raking in Triple-A and primed to take over at third.

Best fits: Chicago Cubs, Seattle Mariners, Milwaukee Brewers, Cincinnati Reds, Philadelphia Phillies


Chance of trade: 10%

Ryan is one of the best pitchers in baseball, with a mix of stuff and pitchability, and teams in search of long-term fits dream of the possibility the Twins will actually move him. That is unlikely, but this is deadline season, so there is always the chance a team surveys the market, finds nothing to its liking and overpays. The Twins don’t necessarily want to move Ryan; they are more in listening mode on nearly everyone that occupies a roster spot — and with Ryan not a free agent until after the 2027 season, teams are trying, with little success thus far, to pry him away.

Best fits: Boston Red Sox, Chicago Cubs, Toronto Blue Jays, New York Yankees, Baltimore Orioles, Houston Astros, New York Mets


Chance of trade: 10%

While the general sense is that Gore won’t go anywhere, the Nationals are, at the very least, listening — and that warrants a spot atop the list regardless of the minimal likelihood interim general manager Mike DeBartolo deals him. The prospect of Gore moving is tempting enough to want to engage: 144 strikeouts in 117⅔ innings with enough control that he’s walking a career-low 3.4 per nine innings. Even if stuff-plus models aren’t crazy for Gore, he gets elite swing-and-miss and is the sort of pitcher that could tempt teams to overpay.

Best fits: Boston, Chicago Cubs, Toronto, New York Yankees, Baltimore, Houston, New York Mets


Chance of trade: 25%

Another late entry to the proceedings, Cease is throwing as hard as he did in his prime and is here more as a function of the Padres not having payroll flexibility or a deep minor league system than some sort of desire to deal him. As an impending free agent, he wouldn’t bring back nearly the haul of Ryan or Gore. And there are genuine questions about whether the holes the Padres would try to fill by moving Cease would only be exacerbated on the starting-pitching side were he to go. Regardless, they’re at the very least listening, and with Cincinnati and San Francisco breathing down their necks for the final NL wild-card slot, president of baseball operations A.J. Preller could try to get creative in upgrading his roster.

Best fits: Boston, Chicago Cubs, Toronto, New York Yankees, New York Mets


Chance of trade: 10%

An All-Star the past two years and Gold Glove winner in all three of his previous big league seasons, Kwan is a do-everything left fielder with elite bat-to-ball skills and two years of club control after 2025. Cleveland doesn’t want to deal him, but with a dearth of available bats, the Guardians at the very least will listen to see if teams are willing to blow them away with offers.

Best fits: Philadelphia, New York Mets, Cincinnati, Toronto, San Diego, Los Angeles Dodgers


Chance of trade: 25%

Duran had a huge breakout season in 2024, posting the seventh-best fWAR in the majors at 6.8. He overperformed his underlying metrics, though — i.e., had some lucky outcomes — and those metrics have regressed a bit this year as has his luck. Duran’s projected to finish the season with around 3.0 WAR, which is more in line with how the league sees him. With Roman Anthony, Ceddanne Rafaela and Wilyer Abreu, the Red Sox have the outfield depth to consider moving Duran for controllable, top-end pitching.

Best fits: San Diego, Atlanta, Cleveland, Kansas City, San Francisco, Philadelphia


7. Jhoan Duran, RP, Minnesota Twins

Chance of trade: 30%

Duran is one of the best relievers in the sport, thanks to his nasty stuff, headlined by a fastball that averages 100.4 mph and a splinker that sits at 97.6 mph. He has two more years of team control after this season, so he’d demand a big trade package.

Best fits: Los Angeles Dodgers, Philadelphia, Toronto, New York Yankees, New York Mets, Chicago Cubs, Detroit, Texas


8. Cade Smith, RP, Cleveland Guardians

Chance of trade: 20%

Smith has been the best reliever in baseball by WAR since the beginning of the 2024 season, and with more than 13 strikeouts per nine innings this year, he is the solution to many teams’ late-inning woes. With four more years of control, he’s also going to be prohibitively expensive for most teams, making a deal difficult to come by.

Best fits: Los Angeles Dodgers, Philadelphia, Toronto, New York Yankees, New York Mets, Chicago Cubs, Detroit, Texas


9. Griffin Jax, RP, Minnesota Twins

Chance of trade: 30%

Despite a 3.92 ERA that says otherwise, Jax has been one of the top relievers in baseball this season — the best by xFIP and toward the top in other similar metrics. Over the past two seasons, he’s second in the sport behind Cade Smith in reliever WAR. Only Fernando Cruz and Mason Miller have a better strikeout rate than Jax’s 14.37 per nine, and his sweeper-heavy arsenal induces as much swing-and-miss as anyone.

Best fits: Los Angeles Dodgers, Philadelphia, Toronto, New York Yankees, New York Mets, Chicago Cubs, Detroit, Texas


10. Merrill Kelly, SP, Arizona Diamondbacks

Chance of trade: 70%

Kelly doesn’t have big raw stuff, posting the second-lowest average fastball velocity (92.1 mph) among pitchers with 125 innings pitched this season. His changeup is his best pitch by a wide margin, and he gets by with location and off-speed stuff. He was a stalwart in the Diamondbacks’ run to the 2023 World Series, striking out 28 in 24 innings with a 2.25 ERA.

Best fits: Toronto, Boston, Houston, Chicago Cubs


Chance of trade: 65%

Not only is Keller in the midst of a career-best season with a 3.53 ERA, he’s under contract for another three years at a very reasonable $55.7 million. The Pirates need bats, and moving Keller is the likeliest way to fill that void. Teams could be scared off slightly by the quality of contact against him — his average exit velocity and hard-hit rate have spiked while his strikeouts are down — but in an environment with little pitching, Keller is nevertheless desirable.

Best fits: Chicago Cubs, Boston, Toronto, Houston


Chance of trade: 30%

All the potential the Marlins have seen in the 27-year-old right-hander is finally being realized this season. While Cabrera’s 97 mph fastball gets hitters’ attention, it’s his curveball and slider that are doing most of the work. And with a changeup that in years past has been his best pitch, the cost to acquire Cabrera will be high because of his full arsenal and three more years of club control.

Best fits: Chicago Cubs, Boston, New York Mets, Toronto, Houston, Los Angeles Dodgers, New York Yankees


Chance of trade: 50%

Alcantara was arguably the best pitcher in baseball in 2022, winning the NL Cy Young unanimously. He was more solid than spectacular in 2023 and missed 2024 with Tommy John surgery. He has been tinkering this season to try to get his pitch mix and locations right in hopes of regaining his former glory. His 6.66 ERA is frightening, and with the Marlins still valuing him as a top starter, they could hold onto him until the winter, when teams like the Orioles would be more inclined to acquire him and the final two years of his contract.

Best fits: Chicago Cubs, Houston Astros, Boston, Toronto, Los Angeles Dodgers, San Diego, Baltimore


14. Zac Gallen, SP, Arizona Diamondbacks

Chance of trade: 70%

Gallen was excellent for the past three seasons but now, in a contract year, is posting career-worst numbers in almost every category. His stuff looks pretty similar, but he’s allowing much more damage when hitters make contact. That said, his strikeout-to-walk ratio is back to normal in his past six starts, at 35-to-6, despite a 6.55 ERA in that span.

Best fits: Toronto, San Diego, Houston, Chicago Cubs


15. Ryan O’Hearn, 1B, Baltimore Orioles

Chance of trade: 85%

O’Hearn is having an out-of-nowhere career year, with an OPS+ of 132 (and he’s been unlucky with ball-in-play luck, to boot) along with being on pace for a career high in homers. He doesn’t face lefty pitchers much at all and his splits suggest that he shouldn’t.

Best fits: Houston, Boston, San Francisco, Texas


16. David Bednar, RP, Pittsburgh Pirates

Chance of trade: 70%

In a market replete with relief options, the 30-year-old Bednar brings high-end performance without quite the price tag of his peers. His swing-and-miss stuff has been elite since his return from Triple-A, and he has more than salvaged his trade value: Over his past 23 outings, Bednar has struck out 29, walked five and posted a 0.00 ERA.

Best fits: Detroit, Toronto, Los Angeles Dodgers, Philadelphia, New York Yankees, New York Mets, Chicago Cubs, Seattle


Chance of trade: 50%

Suarez is unique in that he throws his two fastball variants (four-seamer and sinker) 76% of the time, which is the highest in the league. On top of that, every other pitch he has thrown his season has been his changeup — he has no breaking ball.

It’s also rare that a contending team would trade its closer, but Suarez has an opt out after this year that he is expected to exercise, so he’s effectively in a contract year. The Padres’ farm system depth is down and moving a key big league player on an expiring deal could be step one in a multi-part deadline plan by GM A.J. Preller.

Fits: New York Yankees, Toronto, Detroit, Texas


Chance of trade: 80%

Helsley had the fourth-best WAR among relievers last season and is in a contract year, but he has been notably worse this season. His stuff and locations are pretty similar, but the main difference is his fastball is getting hit hard — with one byproduct being his spiking home run rate.

Best fits: Los Angeles Dodgers, Philadelphia, New York Yankees, Toronto, Detroit, New York Mets, Seattle


Chance of trade: 20%

Fairbanks raised his slot a bit this year, and now his 97.3 mph fastball has more cutting action while his slurvy slider has more depth with both pitches playing a notch better than they did last season. He has a club option for 2026 that, with escalators, should wind up around the $10 million range. Tampa Bay’s playoff hopes and bullpen injuries have cut into the likelihood Fairbanks moves.

Best fits: Los Angeles Dodgers, Philadelphia, Detroit, Toronto, Texas


20. Shane Bieber, SP, Cleveland Guardians

Chance of trade: 50%

A late entrant into the trade market, Bieber still hasn’t thrown a big league pitch this season and is coming back from Tommy John surgery. With his fastball up to 94 mph and his slider looking like its old sharp self, though, he’s generating plenty of interest and could be one of the bigger names moved at the deadline.

Best fits: San Diego, Chicago Cubs, New York Mets, New York Yankees, Boston, Toronto


Chance of trade: 60%

Ward comes with an additional year of team control after this season and he’s having a strong 2025 campaign, just one homer away from last year’s career high total of 25 — and in 52 fewer games.

Best fits: Cincinnati, San Diego, Philadelphia, Seattle, San Francisco


Chance of trade: 50%

Robert has been extremely unlucky with ball-in-play results this season, but that has begun to turn around recently. He remains a strong defender and baserunner, with a career-high 24 steals already. But the slash line is unsightly, and his trade value has cratered over the past two seasons. He has a pair of $20 million-a-year club options that the acquiring team will be hesitant to exercise absent a turnaround. Finding a match with a team willing to pay more for Robert’s upside than his productivity could be challenging.

Best fits: San Diego, Philadelphia, New York Mets, Cincinnati, San Francisco


Chance of trade: 70%

Laureano has been a premium role player since his breakout in 2019 but is having a career year this season in Baltimore, so he’s now seen as a solid every-day right fielder.

He is average to above at everything in the batters box due to optimizing how he hits the ball more than having huge raw power or bat speed. He’s also solid on the basepaths and defensively, fitting best in the outfield corners with one of the better outfield arms in the league.

Laureano just turned 31 years old, is in a contract year, and is on a hot streak right now, with a 156 wRC+ and .924 OPS in his last 100 at-bats.

Best Fits: Philadelphia, San Diego, San Francisco, Toronto, Seattle, Cincinnati, Los Angeles Dodgers


24. Nolan Arenado, 3B, St. Louis Cardinals

Chance of trade: 20%

Arenado’s strikeout rate is around his career best and he’s still an above-average defender, but his power and patience are both trending down to around the worst of his career. He’s still a solid starter but no longer a star, and the team taking him on a deal would still have to pay him like one. Potentially complicating any deal: a full no-trade clause.

Best fits: Detroit, Milwaukee, Seattle


Chance of trade: 70%

Ozuna is a stone-cold DH, playing two games in the field in 2023 as his last regular-season experience defensively. He’s also in a contract year, but his power numbers are down a notch from his standout .302 average and 39-homer performance last season. His on-base percentage remains among the highest of potential trade candidates. If anyone is moving from Atlanta, he’s the likeliest candidate, with free agency beckoning.

Best fits: San Diego, Seattle, Texas, Detroit, San Francisco


Chance of trade: 50%

Garcia averaged 30 homers in 2021-24, but he has fallen off since his 2023 career year. It’s worth noting that per xwOBA, he has been the 13th-most unlucky hitter in the big leagues this year. He also has another year of team control, so some teams could see a buy-low opportunity.

Best fits: Philadelphia, Seattle, Cincinnati, San Diego, San Francisco


27. Reid Detmers, RP, Los Angeles Angels

Chance of trade: 15%

The No. 10 pick from the 2020 draft transitioned to relief this season and has found similar success to other highly drafted college lefties, including A.J. Puk, Andrew Miller and Drew Pomeranz. He comes with three more years of control after this season and his velo is up 1.7 mph in the new role, so this might be where he fits long term — and he could fetch a hefty return. Some teams still see Detmers as a starter.

Best fits: New York Mets, New York Yankees, Chicago Cubs, Detroit, Toronto


Chance of trade: 90%

Following a dreadful start to the season, Morton found his curveball and has righted himself. Between his stuff and playoff experience, he has leapt up teams’ boards as a true target and almost certainly will move before the deadline.

Best fits: New York Mets, Chicago Cubs, New York Yankees, Boston, San Diego, Toronto


29. Adrian Houser, SP, Chicago White Sox

Chance of trade: 90%

Houser’s resurgence is a success story for the White Sox. He opted out of a minor league deal with Texas to sign with the White Sox in mid-May and has limited home runs to post a 2.10 ERA in nearly 70 innings. He’ll eat innings for sure, but some scouts see his stuff as good enough to warrant a spot in a postseason rotation.

Best fits: Chicago Cubs, New York Mets, New York Yankees, Boston, San Diego, Toronto


Chance of trade: 80%

Mullins is a 30-year-old center fielder in a contract year who contributes in a number of ways, though he’s hitting only .217 and his defensive metrics have regressed to be below average in center. His walk rate and power numbers are up this season, making him a solid contributor on a contender.

Best fits: Philadelphia, Houston, New York Mets


Nos. 31-58

31. Willi Castro, UT, Minnesota Twins
32. Seth Halvorsen, RP, Colorado Rockies
33. Zack Littell, SP, Tampa Bay Rays
34. Jeffrey Springs, SP, Athletics
35. Jesus Sanchez, RF, Miami Marlins
36. Bryan Reynolds, OF, Pittsburgh Pirates
37. Dennis Santana, RP, Pittsburgh Pirates
38. JP Sears, SP, Athletics
39. Michael Soroka, SP, Washington Nationals
40. Tyler Anderson, SP, Los Angeles Angels
41. Kyle Finnegan, RP, Washington Nationals
42. Luis Severino, SP, Athletics
43. Zach Eflin, SP, Baltimore Orioles
44. Pierce Johnson, RP, Atlanta Braves
45. Phil Maton, RP, St. Louis Cardinals
46. Steven Matz, RP, St. Louis Cardinals
47. Harrison Bader, CF, Minnesota Twins
48. Jake Bird, RP, Colorado Rockies
49. Ke’Bryan Hayes, 3B, Pittsburgh Pirates
50. Yoan Moncada, 3B, Los Angeles Angels
51. Andrew Heaney, SP, Pittsburgh Pirates
52. Chris Paddack, SP, Minnesota Twins
53. Raisel Iglesias, RP, Atlanta Braves
54. Tomoyuki Sugano, SP, Baltimore Orioles
55. Ramon Urias, 3B, Baltimore Orioles
56. Isiah Kiner-Falefa, UT, Pittsburgh Pirates
57. Luis Urias, 2B, Athletics
58. Shelby Miller, RP, Arizona Diamondbacks

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Book excerpt: Does the future of college football need a commissioner?

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Book excerpt: Does the future of college football need a commissioner?

Editor’s note: On Sept. 2, ESPN writer Bill Connelly’s book “Forward Progress: The Definitive Guide to the Future of College Football” will be released. This edited excerpt looks at whether the sport needs central leadership like professional leagues.

In 1920, professional baseball was in crisis. The Black Sox scandal, in which eight members of the Chicago White Sox — star outfielder “Shoeless Joe” Jackson; co-aces Eddie Cicotte and Lefty Williams; four other starters (first baseman Chick Gandil, shortstop Swede Risberg, third baseman Buck Weaver, and outfielder Happy Felsch); and a key backup infielder (Fred McMullin) — were indicted and accused of throwing the 1919 World Series, had, along with allegations of other fixed games, shaken the sport to its core. Baseball had been governed by a National Commission consisting of three parties with extreme self-interest: National League president John Heydler, American League president Ban Johnson, and Garry Herrmann, president of the Cincinnati Reds team that had beaten the White Sox in the World Series. Its leadership proved lacking in this moment, and its questionable independence severely damaged perceptions. Herrmann resigned from the commission in 1920, and the commissioners couldn’t agree on a new third member.

In early October 1920, days before the start of that season’s World Series between the Brooklyn Robins and Cleveland Indians, leaders of the Chicago Cubs, Chicago White Sox, New York Giants, and Pittsburgh Pirates proposed a tribunal of, in the words of the New York Times, “three of America’s biggest men, with absolute power over both major and minor leagues.” A letter sent to every major and minor baseball club said, “If baseball is to continue to exist as our national game (and it will) it must be with the recognition on the part of club owners and players that the game itself belongs to the American people, and not to either owners or players.”

The letter stated that “the present deplorable condition in baseball has been brought about by the lack of complete supervisory control of professional baseball,” that “the only cure for such condition is by having at the head of baseball men in no wise connected with baseball who are so prominent and representative among the American people that not a breath of suspicion could be ever reflected.” It concluded, “The practical operation of this agreement would be the selection of three men of such unquestionable reputation and standing in fields other than baseball that the mere knowledge of their control of baseball, in itself, would insure that the public interests would first be served, and that, therefore, as a natural sequence, all existing evils would disappear.” This tribunal would have the power to punish players, strip owners of their franchises, “establish a proper relationship between minor leagues and major leagues,” you name it.

This proposal, first discussed by Cubs shareholder A.D. Lasker, became known as the Lasker Plan. Perhaps unsurprisingly, a number of clubs — particularly, those in the American League still loyal to the strong-willed Johnson — initially balked at the idea, to the point where the National League considered beginning an entirely new league with a few insurrectionist AL clubs, including the New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox. But all necessary parties eventually came to the table, and figures as grand as former president William Howard Taft, General John J. Pershing and former treasury secretary William G. McAdoo were under discussion for the tribunal.

The search pretty quickly began to revolve around a single figure: Judge Kenesaw Mountain Landis. A known baseball fan and an occasional showman on the bench, the 54-year-old Landis was known primarily for his antitrust judgment against Standard Oil, issuing the corporation a $29.2 million fine in 1907, equivalent to almost $1 billion today. (The U.S. Court of Appeals would eventually strike down the verdict.) He was regarded as tough but thoughtful, a grand figure but a supporter of the everyman. He would go on to serve as the sport’s first commissioner, a one-man tribunal, until his death in 1944.

Landis proved ruthless and uncompromising when he felt he needed to be. Despite all of the indicted “Black Sox” being acquitted in a criminal trial, Landis still banned them from baseball for life, stating, “Regardless of the verdict of juries, no player that throws a ball game; no player that undertakes or promises to throw a ball game; no player that sits in a conference with a bunch of crooked players and gamblers where the ways and means of throwing ball games are planned and discussed and does not promptly tell his club about it, will ever play professional baseball.” For better or worse, he stuck to that decision through the years despite both legal and emotional appeals.

Landis wasn’t a ruthless traditionalist, however. The All-Star Game was created under his watch in the early 1930s and proved to be a big hit, and while he didn’t seem to approve of the development of farm systems, in which minor league clubs developed affiliations with major league clubs to develop and promote their talent through the ranks, he also didn’t stop it, choosing only to step in on a case-by-case basis. He was far from infallible — you can certainly find inconsistency in some of his decisions, and Lord knows baseball didn’t exactly speed toward integration under his watch. (Jackie Robinson’s major league debut came two and a half years after Landis’ death. He might not have stopped that from happening had he still been in charge, but he certainly wasn’t pushing owners to become more progressive in this regard.) But he provided as steady a hand as possible, and both the trust in and popularity of baseball grew under his watch.

Absolute power? A dictatorial hand over the sport you’ve loved since childhood? Man, sign me up. That sounds amazing. Sure, I’ve never issued a billion-dollar fine to anyone, and my strongest bona fides regarding my general incorruptibility probably stem from the time I went on “The Paul Finebaum Show” and proclaimed that Cincinnati should have ranked higher than the SEC’s Texas A&M in the 2020 College Football Playoff rankings. But that qualifies as speaking truth to power, right?

In 2017, while at SB Nation, I indeed decided to run for college football commissioner. Granted, there was no such election and no such position, but it felt like a good use of time all the same. “College football needs someone to make long-term decisions,” I wrote. “College football needs someone who can reflect the interest of programs at every level: Alabama, Alabama-Birmingham, North Alabama, and all.”

There was an explosion of commish talk in 2016, thanks to a number of issues like College Football Playoff selections, conference schedules (mainly that some conferences play eight conference games and others play nine), and high school satellite camps, an issue that was all the rage for a few months and then vanished from consciousness altogether, to the point where I don’t even feel the need to define it here. “There needs to be somebody that looks out for what’s best for the game,” Alabama‘s Nick Saban said at the time, “not what’s best for the Big Ten or what’s best for the SEC or what’s best for Jim Harbaugh, but what’s best for the game of college football — the integrity of the game, the coaches, the players, and the people that play it. That’s bigger than all of this.” (Harbaugh was at the center of the satellite camp issue that I’m still not going to explain further.) But even with Saban’s high-visibility comments, nothing came of it. Nothing ever comes of it.

Through the decades the only thing everyone has seemingly agreed on in this sport is the need for a commissioner figure.

“Charley Trippi, one of the all-time greats in college and professional football … said college football today needs a national commissioner to direct the game on a national basis. Trippi … charged that the National Collegiate Athletic Association is ‘controlled by the Big Ten.’ He said he felt no conference in the nation should have any kind of monopoly in the game.” — Macon News, 1958

“You don’t think we need a commissioner and a set of rules to make things even? We’re the only sport in America that doesn’t have the same set of rules for everybody that plays … Everybody goes to their own neighborhood and makes their own little rules.” — Florida State head coach Jimbo Fisher, 2016

“I think there’s a perception with the public that perhaps college football doesn’t have its act together because there are so many different entities pulling in different directions.” — former Baylor head coach Grant Teaff, 1994

“… If you’re biased by a specific conference or if you’re impacted by making all your decisions based on revenue and earnings, then we’re never going to get to a good place.” — Penn State head coach James Franklin, 2024

“What this business needs is a commissioner who has the best interest of the game in mind. There needs to be somebody who creates a structure in which people just don’t cannibalize each other. … The NCAA president doesn’t have any legal authority to do much, in his defense, because they’ve given away that authority over the course of the last 60 years.” — West Virginia athletic director Oliver Luck, 2011

“I think we need to have a … commissioner. I think football should be separate from the other sports. Just because our school is leaving to go to the Big Ten in football … our softball team should be playing Arizona in softball. Our basketball team should be playing Arizona in basketball. … And they’ll say, well, how do you do that? Well, Notre Dame’s independent in football, and they’re in a conference in everything else. I think we should all be independent in football. You can have a 64-team conference that’s in the Power 5, and you can have a 64-team conference that’s in the Group of 5, and we separate, and we play each other. You can have the West Coast teams, and every year we play seven games against the West Coast teams and then we play the East — we play Syracuse, Boston College, Pitt, West Virginia, Virginia — and then the next year you play against the South while you still play your seven teams. You play a seven-game schedule, you play four against another conference opponent, division opponent, and you can always play against one Mountain West team every year so we can still keep those rivalries going. … But I think if you went together collectively, as a group, and said there’s 132 teams and we all share the same TV contract, so that the Mountain West doesn’t have one and the Sun Belt doesn’t have another and the SEC another, that we all go together, that’s a lot of games, and there’s a lot of people in the TV world that would go through it. … But I think if we still do the same and take all that money … that money now needs to be shared with the student-athletes, and there needs to be revenue sharing, and the players should get paid, and you get rid of [NIL], and the schools should be paying the players because the players are what the product is. And the fact that they don’t get paid is really the biggest travesty. Not that I’ve thought about it.” — UCLA head coach Chip Kelly, 2023

Kelly’s spiel, spoken at a pace faster than his fastest old Oregon offense at a press conference before UCLA’s LA Bowl appearance, made waves. In a way, he was basically calling for a College Football Association of sorts, an all-of-FBS league that could negotiate a huge television contract to be divvied out in a fair manner. In a perfect world, maybe that’s what would exist. But as with any other “In a perfect world …” construct, the real world prevailed instead.

The waves continued after Kelly’s comments. In January 2024, Nick Saban retired in part because he was frustrated with all the different demands of the NIL era. In February, Saban told ESPN’s Chris Low, “If my voice can bring about some meaningful change, I want to help any way I can, because I love the players, and I love college football. What we have now is not college football — not college football as we know it. You hear somebody use the word ‘student-athlete.’ That doesn’t exist.” A company man until the end, Saban suggested that either SEC commissioner Greg Sankey or Alabama athletic director Greg Byrne might make a good commissioner for the sport. (“They would be more qualified than I am. They’re in it every day and know all the issues.”) In December 2024, Penn State head coach James Franklin expressed frustration with the state of the college football calendar and the fact that his backup quarterback, Beau Pribula, felt he needed to hop into the transfer portal before the Nittany Lions’ College Football Playoff journey began to make sure he had a solid home for the winter semester. His solution? “Let’s get a commissioner of college football that is waking up every single morning and going to bed every single night making decisions that’s in the best interest of college football. I think Nick Saban would be the obvious choice if we made that decision.”

Did anything come of that? Of course not. But that just means I’m still a candidate, right?

Back in 2017, my campaign platform consisted of nine pillars intended to maximize both the athlete’s experience and the fan’s enjoyment of the sport:

  1. A student-athlete bill of rights to ensure proper health care options, guaranteed undergraduate scholarships, and freer transfer rules.

  2. A modernized definition of amateurism that allowed players to profit off of their name, image, and likeness.

  3. The return of the EA Sports video game. (Hey, you have to throw some red meat to the base, right?)

  4. A fairer recruiting landscape that allowed players easier releases from their letters of intent if a coach left and explored changes to signing periods and regulations surrounding official visits and other recruiting rules.

  5. A system of promotion and relegation that incorporates actual merit into the sport’s power structure. (This one’s always on my mind.)

  6. An expanded playoff.

  7. Ditching unequal conference divisions in favor of a system of permanent rivalries and a larger rotation of opponents.

  8. Increasing creativity and flexibility in nonconference scheduling. (One idea: a “BracketBuster Saturday” in November in which everyone in FBS gets paired off based on in-season results.)

  9. Changes in clock rules that stemmed the recent increases in average game times, which had reached nearly three and a half hours per game.

It’s been about eight years since I put that list together, and damned if I haven’t gotten a lot of what I wanted: We’ve seen either partial or complete success for items No. 1, 2, 3, 4, 6, 7, and 9. That’s a hell of a success rate, especially considering how hard it is to actually institute change in this sport at times. But it feels like a lot of the forces I was responding to at the time — mainly, massive disorganization within the sport and an ever-increasing imbalance between haves and have-nots — have only gotten worse since 2017. Why? BECAUSE WE STILL HAVE NO COMMISSIONER! Any change that could have produced progressive outcomes only made the imbalance worse because when no one’s in charge, that really means that the most powerful and self-interested figures in the sport are in charge. And their only goal is to reinforce the power structure.

“I can’t tell you how many times I heard [former Big Ten commissioner] Jim Delany say two things,” former Mountain West commissioner Craig Thompson said. “One: ‘You didn’t bring the Rose Bowl, or the Orange Bowl, or the Sugar Bowl, or the Fiesta Bowl, so [you get] whatever we decide you are worthy of.’ He also used to say, ‘The world cares more about 6-6 Michigan than 12-0 Utah, and until you realize and understand that and accept that …’ and I got it. But we always seemed to find a way to work together for the good of the cause, the good of the overall enterprise. Great, you started the Rose Bowl, but was it all bad that TCU beat Wisconsin in the Rose Bowl [in 2011]? That Utah beat Alabama in the Sugar Bowl [in 2009]? Did the enterprise come crumbling down? No. We’re trying to look at the good of the cause and what’s best for the second most popular sport out there, and what I always had in the back of my mind trying to protect was how we could make sure that people give a damn about college football.”

For somewhere between 10 and 30 years, Delany was the sport’s most powerful figure. He kick-started multiple runs of conference realignment, and the Big Ten’s creation of the Big Ten Network turned out to be a game-changer. But college football’s most powerful figure was also doing everything he could to keep other conferences’ ambitions in check, to almost limit the sport’s potential growth in other areas of the country.

“When people talk about wanting a commissioner, what they’re really asking for is someone whose job it is to look out for the betterment of the sport as a whole,” said NBC Sports’ Nicole Auerbach. “I know it sounds really pollyannaish and idealistic, but you don’t have someone whose job it is to look out for the greater good. So you have competing interests. You have an NCAA president who has certain motivations and goals — and major college football is not even under their purview. And then you have all these different commissioners, and it makes a lot of sense that we ended up in a position where conferences started hiring outside of college sports. They hired businesspeople, they hired media executives, and then those people believe that their goal is to advance the interest only of their conference because that’s how those jobs work.”

“Lately, it seems like we’ve morphed into, ‘I’ve gotta feed the beast,'” said Thompson. “‘I’ve got 18 schools, 16 schools …’ In 2023, there were five autonomous conferences with an average membership of 13 schools each. Now we’ve got four autonomous conferences with an average membership of 17. We’ve gone to that consolidation, and a commissioner is paid to protect his 14, 16, 18 school interests. But, man, it just doesn’t seem like we care as much about how we just keep this thing going, how we keep 80,000 people, 50,000 people, hell, even 30,000 people coming to games.”

Now, professional sports have proven rather definitively that you can be disorganized and inequality-friendly with a commissioner atop the organizational chart. Just look at the last 35 years for most of Europe’s biggest soccer leagues or large swaths of Major League Baseball’s history — baseball had all the inequality a fan of capitalism could possibly crave, especially in the 1990s. And, hey, having an occasional tyrant like David Stern in charge didn’t stop the NBA from basically being ruled by three teams for decades — from 1980 to 2002, the Los Angeles Lakers, Boston Celtics, and Chicago Bulls won 17 of 23 titles. Even in the NFL, all the parity measures in the world couldn’t stop the teams that employed either Tom Brady (New England, then Tampa Bay) or Patrick Mahomes (Kansas City) from winning 10 of 24 Super Bowls from 2001 to 2024.

It’s also not hard to see how a dictatorial figure like the Landis-style commissioner I dream of becoming could get corrupted. (I wouldn’t, of course — you can trust me — but others might.)

You can obviously manage things quite poorly with a commissioner in charge. But the only thing worse might be not having one. Professional organizations have commissioners, and at its highest level college football is now a professional organization of sorts. But a quote from Notre Dame president Father John J. Cavanaugh from the late 1940s still rings impressively true: “The type of reformers I refer to are those who play with the question for public consumption, who seem to say that an indefinable something has to be done in a way nobody knows how, at a time nobody knows when, in places nobody knows where, to accomplish nobody knows what. I wonder if there are not grounds to suspect that the reformers … protest too much, that their zeal may be an excuse for their own negligence in reforming themselves.”


Of course, there’s no place for a commissioner in college football’s structure. There’s no National College Football Office for him or her to occupy. England has spent the last few years working toward an “independent football regulator” (IFR) to oversee soccer as a whole in the country — in a lot of the same ways we’re talking about here — and it might create an intriguing model to follow. Or it might prove to totally lack independence from either partisan government or financial influence. We’ll see.

The creation of the College Football Playoff as an entity might have produced an opportunity for a leadership structure of sorts — imagine a situation in which schools must opt in to CFP membership (which features a set of rules and protocols you must follow) to compete for the CFP title — but it doesn’t appear we’re anywhere close to that at the moment. Among other things, expanding the CFP’s governance potential would again require a vote from Sankey and Petitti to strip themselves of power. “It could come through the CFP,” Auerbach said. “They already have a governance structure. In theory, they could build that out and add all of the bureaucratic pieces they would need to truly govern the sport. But you would need the people who are powerful now to be willing to give up some of that power for the collective good of the sport — you would need to have a willingness from the SEC and Big Ten commissioners, or those schools in their leagues, to give up power to have a collective, centralized, powerful figure. … It’s just hard to imagine that that would happen.”

“I think any governance system probably has to shift power away from the presidents,” said Extra Points’ Matt Brown, “… That could be a centralized commissioner. That could be a different board.” Right now, however, it’s nothing. And without anyone atop the pyramid, any change that could be good for the sport just exacerbates the haves-versus-have-nots divide that already exists.

Writing about the possibility of interleague play in Major League Baseball in the early 1970s, Roger Angell wrote, “The plan is startling and perhaps imperfect, but it is surely worth hopeful scrutiny at the top levels of baseball. I am convinced, however, that traditionalists need have no fear that it will be adopted. Any amalgamation would require all the owners to subdue their differences, to delegate real authority, to accept change, and to admit that they share an equal responsibility for everything that happens to their game. And that, to judge by their past record and by their performance in the strike, is exactly what they will never do.” He was right and wrong: it did come into existence, but it took 25 years to do so. We’ve been talking about a college football commissioner for far longer than that, and there doesn’t yet appear to be much of an appetite for subduing differences or delegating real authority. And it’s hard to imagine that changing without some sort of Black Sox-level emergency.

Then again, we can only envision what we know to envision. “Our imagination is bound by our experiences,” The Athletic’s Ralph Russo said. “And that’s making it hard to see where all this could possibly go. I feel like there’s a conclusion here that nothing in our collective experience could have brought us to. There’s just something, some other event, that is going to influence college football, probably an outside event. I say that because the history of college football is riddled with outside events totally influencing the power structure. It’s demographic movement — where the population goes within the United States. It’s wars. It’s segregation and desegregation. All of these things. So is the next thing something that completely disrupts the university system? Is it something that disrupts the U.S. government?”

At best, a commissioner figure could for the first time give the sport a vision to follow and a steadying hand for guidance. At worst, he or she would reinforce the divides and inequality that have already been established, furrowing his or her brow and talking about how great and deep college football is and how hard it is to satisfy everyone before simply giving the SEC and Big Ten whatever they want.

Regardless, I’m keeping my hat in the ring. CONNELLY 2025 (or 2036, or 2048, whatever it ends up being).

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Sarkisian’s advice for Manning: ‘Just go be you’

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Sarkisian's advice for Manning: 'Just go be you'

As the No. 1 Longhorns head to Columbus to face No. 3 Ohio State in what coach Steve Sarkisian called an “epic matchup,” all eyes are on Texas’ new starting quarterback, Arch Manning.

Manning, the preseason Heisman Trophy favorite according to ESPN BET, has made just two starts in two years — against UL Monroe and Mississippi State last season — and this will be his first start on the road or against a ranked team.

With all the noise, Sarkisian said his message to Manning has been just to be himself.

“We’re not asking any superhuman efforts of you to do anything that is extraordinary,” Sarkisian said Monday about what he told Manning. “Just go be you. What you’ve done is good enough to get us to this point and to get him to this point in this juncture of his career. Now go play the way he’s capable of playing to the style that he’s comfortable doing it.”

Manning threw for 939 yards with nine touchdowns and two interceptions in spot duty last season, also rushing for 108 yards and four touchdowns. His best performance was off the bench against UTSA last year, when he replaced Quinn Ewers and threw for 223 yards and four touchdowns on 9-of-12 passing while adding a 67-yard touchdown run — the longest by a Texas quarterback since Vince Young in 2005.

Now that he’s got the job full time, he said he won’t take the opportunity for granted.

“This is what I’ve been waiting for,” Manning said Monday. “I spent two years not playing, so I might as well go have some fun.”

The game marks just the second time since the AP poll debuted in 1950 that two top-3 teams will meet in their season opener, according to ESPN Research. The last time was 2017, when No. 1 Alabama beat No. 3 Florida State 24-7 and went on to win the national championship.

It’s also a rematch of last season’s College Football Playoff semifinal, when the Buckeyes beat the Longhorns 28-14 in the Cotton Bowl.

Sarkisian said these are two different teams from the end of last season.

“If you look at last year’s game, 26 players got drafted off of the two teams,” Sarkisian said. “If you include free agents, 32 players that were playing in that game a year ago are now in the NFL.”

The Longhorns return nine starters and 30 players from last year, but they still are the preseason No. 1. Sarkisian said both teams’ rankings are a testament to their quality, and he touted Ryan Day’s 70-10 head-coaching record.

“They’re not a gimmick team at all,” Sarkisian said of the Buckeyes. “I don’t mean to offend anybody, but the things that they do are sound and so you have to beat them.”

But the Buckeyes have two new coordinators and, like Texas, are breaking in a new starting quarterback, sophomore Julian Sayin in their case.

“He’s a natural passer; he’s got a quick release,” Sarkisian said of Sayin. “He’s a better athlete than you think, and he can run. So we definitely need to be alert to that. … This is going to be one of those where, when you go into the ring with somebody, what’s the plan? As the rounds go on, you’ve got to have to be able to adjust.”

The Longhorns have won their past 11 true road games, which Sarkisian said is a result of their process, focus and game-day routine. But neither he nor Manning has ever been to Ohio Stadium. Manning said he knows he’s got a talented team around him and doesn’t feel any pressure going into such a hostile environment.

“I always have to remind myself, it’s not all about me; it’s the whole team,” Manning said. “It’s going to be a fun one.”

Manning said he doesn’t feel a target on his back as he steps into the role of full-time starter.

“I think that’s all of us at Texas, and I think we kind of try to shift the narrative,” Manning said. “We’re going for everyone else. Target’s not on our back, but we got the red dot on everyone else.”

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Wolverines go with freshman Underwood as QB1

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Wolverines go with freshman Underwood as QB1

True freshman Bryce Underwood has been named Michigan‘s starting quarterback, coach Sherrone Moore said Monday.

“He’s earned the opportunity,” Moore said. “It was not given to him.”

Other Michigan quarterbacks were informed Sunday that Underwood will start, a source told ESPN’s Pete Thamel.

Moore said sophomore Jadyn Davis, who appeared in one game last season, had a strong camp and will serve as the backup to Underwood as the No. 14 Wolverines open the season Saturday against New Mexico before traveling to Oklahoma on Sept. 6 to face the No. 18 Sooners.

Underwood, from nearby Belleville, Michigan, was ESPN’s No. 1 overall recruit in this year’s signing class, flipping his commitment from LSU last November.

He beat out Fresno State transfer Mikey Keene and Davis for the starting job. Davis Warren is still recovering from a torn ACL in his right knee suffered in last season’s bowl win.

The 6-foot-4, 228-pound Underwood won two state championships with Belleville and won 38 straight games in high school.

“Just did the things the right way and used his skill and never tried to do too much,” Moore said. “For a young guy, he was very mature beyond his years, and he’s only 18 years old. He’s going to make mistakes, but that’s what we’re here for, coaches and players. We’re all going to support him.”

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