The UK’s economic slowdown gathered further momentum during the third quarter of the year with growth of just 0.1%, according to an early official estimate that makes horrific reading for the chancellor.
The Office for National Statistics (ONS) reported a surprise contraction for economic output during September of -0.1% – with some of the downwards pressure being applied by the cyber attack disruption to production at Jaguar Land Rover.
The figures for July-September followed on the back of a 0.3% growth performance over the previous three months and the 0.7% expansion achieved between January and March.
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3:22
Growth ‘slightly worse than expected’
The encouraging start to 2025 was soon followed by the worst of Donald Trump’s trade war salvoes and the implementation of budget measures that placed employers on the hook for £25bn of extra taxes.
Economists have blamed those factors since for pushing up inflation and harming investment and employment.
ONS director of economic statistics, Liz McKeown, said: “Growth slowed further in the third quarter of the year with both services and construction weaker than in the previous period. There was also a further contraction in production.
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“Across the quarter as a whole, manufacturing drove the weakness in production. There was a particularly marked fall in car production in September, reflecting the impact of a cyber incident, as well as a decline in the often-erratic pharmaceutical industry.
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5:10
What next for the UK economy?
“Services were the main contributor to growth in the latest quarter, with business rental and leasing, live events and retail performing well, partially offset by falls in R&D [research and development] and hair and beauty salons.”
When measured by per head of population- a preferred measure of living standards – zero growth was registered during the third quarter.
The weaker-than-expected figures will add fuel to expectations that the Bank of England can cut interest rates at its December meeting after November’s hold.
The vast majority of financial market participants now expect a reduction to 3.75% from 4% on 18 December.
Data earlier this week showed the UK’s unemployment rate at 5% – up from 4.1% when Labour came to power with a number one priority of growing the economy.
Since then, the government’s handling of the economy has centred on its stewardship of the public finances.
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1:41
Chancellor questioned by Sky News
The chancellor was accused by business groups of harming private sector investment and employment through hikes to minimum wage levels and employer national insurance contributions.
The Bank has backed the assertion that hiring and staff retention has been hit as a result of those extra costs.
There is also evidence that rising employment costs have been passed on to consumers and contributed to the UK’s stubbornly high rate of inflation of 3.8% – a figure that is now expected to ease considerably in the coming months.
Rachel Reeves has blamed other factors – such as Brexit and the US trade war – for weighing on the economy, leaving her facing a similar black hole to the one she says she inherited from the Conservatives.
She said of the latest economic data: “We had the fastest-growing economy in the G7 in the first half of the year, but there’s more to do to build an economy that works for working people.
“At my budget later this month, I will take the fair decisions to build a strong economy that helps us to continue to cut waiting lists, cut the national debt and cut the cost of living.”
Shadow chancellor Sir Mel Stride responded: “Today’s ONS figures show the economy shrank in the latest month, under a Prime Minister and Chancellor who are in office but not in power.”
England and Scotland fans have found out where their World Cup group games will be played when the tournament kicks off in June.
England, who are in Group L, will begin their tournament against Croatia in Dallas at 4pm EST (9pm BST) on 17 June. They will then go on to face Ghana in Boston at 4pm EST (9pm BST) on 23 June and Panama in New Jersey, New York, at 5pm EST (10pm BST) on 27 June.
Scotland are in Group C, and their first match will be against Haiti in Boston at 9pm EST on 13 June (2am GMT the following morning).
They will go up against Morocco also in Boston at 6pm EST (11pm GMT) on 19 June and then Brazil in Miami at 6pm EST (11pm GMT) on 24 June.
Fans are expected to rush to sort their travel and accommodation plans now that they know where and when the matches take place.
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2:44
England and Scotland learn World Cup fate
Wales and Northern Ireland have yet to find out if they will qualify.
Wales must face a play-off against Bosnia and Herzegovina in Cardiff, then either Italy or Northern Ireland, if they are victorious.
If they beat these play-off opponents, they will secure their place in Group B alongside Canada, Qatar and Switzerland.
However, Northern Ireland will also be vying to guarantee their spot in the same group if they can beat Italy and then either Wales or Bosnia and Herzegovina.
This breaking news story is being updated and more details will be published shortly.
England are in Group L along with Croatia, Panama and Ghana. Their first match will be against Croatia, who beat them in the semi-finals of the 2018 World Cup in Russia.
Image: Pic: Reuters
Scotland’s first match will be against Haiti, in Group C.
Brazil and Morocco are the other Group C teams – both countries were also in the same opening group as Scotland in the 1998 World Cup in France.
Image: Trump and Infantino at the World Cup draw
Wales have yet to find out if they will qualify as they must face a play-off against Bosnia and Herzegovina in Cardiff, and then either Italy or Northern Ireland, if they are victorious.
If they can overcome these play-off opponents then they will secure their place in Group B along with Canada, Qatar and Switzerland. But Northern Ireland will also be vying and hoping to guarantee their spot in the same group if they can beat Italy and then either Wales or Bosnia and Herzegovina.
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1:20
‘Bring it on!’: Scotland fans react to World Cup draw
The Republic of Ireland also need to get through the play-offs first and are paired against the Czech Republic for their semi-final. Should Ireland win that match, they will need to beat either North Macedonia or Denmark to get to the finals where an opening group containing joint hosts Mexico, South Africa and South Korea awaits.
This was a World Cup draw like no other. Crafted less for the teams but for one man.
The choice of venue. The creation of a new trophy. The closing music act.
Donald Trump was lavished with the adulation he craves by FIFA President Gianni Infantino and feels others unfairly deny him.
Knowing how much being overlooked by the Nobel Committee hurt the US president, there was Mr Infantino with FIFA’s newly-created Peace Prize to hand over. And a medal for Mr Trump to wear.
“This is truly one of the great honours of my life,” he said. “And beyond awards, Gianni and I were discussing this. We saved millions and millions of lives.”
This was all on the stage in front of an audience who turned up to find out who they will be playing at the World Cup.
England handed an undaunting route past Croatia, Panama and Ghana. Scotland paired with newcomers Haiti before tricky reunions from their last men’s World Cup in 1998 against Brazil and Morocco.
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Image: Pic: Reuters
But the show before the draw could even begin – presided over by Rio Ferdinand – took almost as long as a football match, at 87 minutes after the noon kick-off was delayed.
There was a walk of self-promotion to complete – “I guess they have to wait” – before taking his seat in the Kennedy Center. Or the Trump Kennedy Center as the president takes to calling the venue picked 1.5 miles from the White House.
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0:35
England manager Thomas Tuchel reacts to draw
“It was falling apart,” he said, delaying the walk into the auditorium. “And now it’s, it’s pretty much back.”
Mr Infantino could only watch on, beaming, at his friend.
“We had a dead country,” Mr Trump went on, “and now we have the hottest country anywhere in the world”.
There was the awkwardness of being reminded, before receiving the peace accolade, about threats to launch military strikes on Venezuela to stop the drugs trade.
“I did settle eight wars, and we have a ninth coming,” he swatted away the question. “Which nobody’s ever done before. But I want to really save lives. I don’t need prizes.”
But FIFA knew how much he wanted more gold for the collection with the prize.
Image: Donald Trump and FIFA president Gianni Infantino. Pic: Reuters
Image: Pic: Reuters
And for all the mockery and disdain targeted at FIFA, how many sports would relish having the US president spend several hours attending a procedural event determining the placing of teams in groups for a tournament?
How many would dish out the same flattery to secure direct lines to the leader of the nation staging their championship?
Many have benefited from Mr Trump’s stardust and swagger being attached to this spectacle.
Even Port Vale’s most famous fan – Robbie Williams – secured a walk-on role, exceeding his profile this side of the Pond.
And the Village People are reaping the rewards of becoming the unlikeliest of Trump hype acts.
The festivities ended with eyes fixed back up to the presidential seating and the YMCA dance being performed.
This was an afternoon that dispelled any pretence that FIFA keeps a distance from politics. It was unapologetically political. But few speak out in the FIFA world as the redistributed wealth keeps rolling back in their direction.
It would be easy to forget this isn’t entirely America’s World Cup. They’re sharing hosting with Canada and Mexico.
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1:20
‘Bring it on!’: Scotland fans react to World Cup draw
And eventually the spotlight was ceded to their leaders – very briefly – as Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum and Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney drew out their countries’ names.
But it did live up to FIFA’s mantra that football can unite the world.
The neighbours were brought together here on a snowy day in Washington. And tensions – often stoked by Mr Trump with Canada and Mexico – thawed in the name of football.