A ‘thirsty’ generative AI boom poses a growing problem for Big Tech
Dubai, UNITED ARAB EMIRATES — A global rush for the next wave of generative artificial intelligence is increasing public scrutiny on an often-overlooked but critically important environmental issue: Big Tech’s expanding water footprint.
Tech giants, including the likes of Microsoft and Alphabet-owned Google, have recently reported a substantial upswing in their water consumption and researchers say one of the main culprits is the race to capitalize on the next wave of AI.
Shaolei Ren, a researcher at the University of California, Riverside, published a study in April investigating the resources needed to run buzzy generative AI models, such as OpenAI’s ChatGPT.
Ren and his colleagues found that ChatGPT gulps 500 milliliters of water (roughly the amount of water in a standard 16-ounce bottle) for every 10 to 50 prompts, depending on when and where the AI model is deployed.
Hundreds of millions of monthly users all submitting questions on the popular chatbot quickly illustrates just how “thirsty” AI models can be.
The study’s authors warned that if the growing water footprint of AI models is not sufficiently addressed, the issue could become a major roadblock to the socially responsible and sustainable use of AI in the future.
People take part in a protest called by Uruguay’s Central Union (PIT-CNT) in “defense of water” against the handling of the national authorities with respect to the management of the shortage of drinking water reserves in Montevideo on May 31, 2023.
Eitan Abramovich | Afp | Getty Images
ChatGPT creator OpenAI, part owned by Microsoft, did not respond to a request to comment on the study’s findings.
“In general, the public is getting more knowledgeable and aware of the water issue and if they learn that the Big Tech’s are taking away their water resources and they are not getting enough water, nobody will like it,” Ren told CNBC via videoconference.
“I think we are going to see more clashes over the water usage in the coming years as well, so this type of risk will have to be taken care of by the companies,” he added.
‘A hidden cost’
Data centers are part of the lifeblood of Big Tech — and a lot of water is required to keep the power-hungry servers cool and running smoothly.
For Meta, its these warehouse-scale data centers that generate not only the highest percentage of its water use but also the lion’s share of its energy use and greenhouse gas emissions.
In July, protesters took to the streets of Uruguay’s capital to push back against Google’s plan to build a data center. The proposal sought to use vast quantities of water at a time when the South American country was suffering its worst drought in 74 years.
Google reportedly said at the time the project was still at an exploratory phase and stressed that sustainability remained at the heart of its mission.
With AI, we’re seeing the classic problem with technology in that you have efficiency gains but then you have rebound effects with more energy and more resources being used.
Somya Joshi
Head of division: global agendas, climate and systems at SEI
In Microsoft’s latest environmental sustainability report, the U.S. tech company disclosed that its global water consumption rose by more than a third from 2021 to 2022, climbing to nearly 1.7 billion gallons.
It means that Microsoft’s annual water use would be enough to fill more than 2,500 Olympic-sized swimming pools.
For Google, meanwhile, total water consumption at its data centers and offices came in at 5.6 billion gallons in 2022, a 21% increase on the year before.
Both companies are working to reduce their water footprint and become “water positive” by the end of the decade, meaning that they aim to replenish more water than they use.
It’s notable, however, that their latest water consumption figures were disclosed before the launch of their own respective ChatGPT competitors. The computing power needed to run Microsoft’s Bing Chat and Google Bard could mean significantly higher levels of water use over the coming months.
“With AI, we’re seeing the classic problem with technology in that you have efficiency gains but then you have rebound effects with more energy and more resources being used,” said Somya Joshi, head of division: global agendas, climate and systems at the Stockholm Environment Institute.
“And when it comes to water, we’re seeing an exponential rise in water use just for supplying cooling to some of the machines that are needed, like heavy computation servers, and large-language models using larger and larger amounts of data,” Joshi told CNBC during the COP28 climate summit in the United Arab Emirates.
“So, on one hand, companies are promising to their customers more efficient models … but this comes with a hidden cost when it comes to energy, carbon and water,” she added.
How are tech firms reducing their water footprint?
A spokesperson for Microsoft told CNBC that the company is investing in research to measure the energy and water use and carbon impact of AI, while working on ways to make large systems more efficient.
“AI will be a powerful tool for advancing sustainability solutions, but we need a plentiful clean energy supply globally to power this new technology, which has increased consumption demands,” a spokesperson for Microsoft told CNBC via email.
“We will continue to monitor our emissions, accelerate progress while increasing our use of clean energy to power datacenters, purchasing renewable energy, and other efforts to meet our sustainability goals of being carbon negative, water positive and zero waste by 2030,” they added.
Aerial view of the proposed site of the Meta Platforms Inc. data center outside Talavera de la Reina, Spain, on Monday, July 17, 2023. Meta is planning to build a 1 billion ($1.1 billion) data center which it expects to use about 665 million liters (176 million gallons) of water a year, and up to 195 liters per second during “peak water flow,” according to a technical report.
Paul Hanna | Bloomberg | Getty Images
Separately, a Google spokesperson told CNBC that research shows that while AI computing demand has dramatically increased, the energy needed to power this technology is rising “at a much slower rate than many forecasts have predicted.”
“We are using tested practices to reduce the carbon footprint of workloads by large margins; together these principles can reduce the energy of training a model by up to 100x and emissions by up to 1000x,” the spokesperson said.
“Google data centers are designed, built and operated to maximize efficiency – compared with five years ago, Google now delivers around 5X as much computing power with the same amount of electrical power,” they continued.
“To support the next generation of fundamental advances in AI, our latest TPU v4 [supercomputer] is proven to be one of the fastest, most efficient, and most sustainable ML [machine leanring] infrastructure hubs in the world.”
Alex Karp, CEO of Palantir Technologies speaks during the Digital X event on September 07, 2021 in Cologne, Germany.
Andreas Rentz | Getty Images
Palantir shares continued their torrid run on Friday, soaring as much as 9% to a record, after the developer of software for the military announced plans to transfer its listing to the Nasdaq from the New York Stock Exchange.
The stock jumped past $64.50 in afternoon trading, lifting the company’s market cap to $147 billion. The shares are now up more than 50% since Palantir’s better-than-expected earnings report last week and have almost quadrupled in value this year.
Palantir said late Thursday that it expects to begin trading on the Nasdaq on Nov. 26, under its existing ticker symbol “PLTR.” While changing listing sites does nothing to alter a company’s fundamentals, board member Alexander Moore, a partner at venture firm 8VC, suggested in a post on X that the move could be a win for retail investors because “it will force” billions of dollars in purchases by exchange-traded funds.
“Everything we do is to reward and support our retail diamondhands following,” Moore wrote, referring to a term popularized in the crypto community for long-term believers.
Moore appears to have subsequently deleted his X account. His firm, 8VC, didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment.
Last Monday after market close, Palantir reported third-quarter earnings and revenue that topped estimates and issued a fourth-quarter forecast that was also ahead of Wall Street’s expectations. CEO Alex Karp wrote in the earnings release that the company “absolutely eviscerated this quarter,” driven by demand for artificial intelligence technologies.
U.S. government revenue increased 40% from a year earlier to $320 million, while U.S. commercial revenue rose 54% to $179 million. On the earnings call, the company highlighted a five-year contract to expand its Maven technology across the U.S. military. Palantir established Maven in 2017 to provide AI tools to the Department of Defense.
The post-earnings rally coincides with the period following last week’s presidential election. Palantir is seen as a potential beneficiary given the company’s ties to the Trump camp. Co-founder and Chairman Peter Thiel was a major booster of Donald Trump’s first victorious campaign, though he had a public falling out with Trump in the ensuing years.
When asked in June about his position on the 2024 election, Thiel said, “If you hold a gun to my head I’ll vote for Trump.”
Thiel’s Palantir holdings have increased in value by about $3.2 billion since the earnings report and $2 billion since the election.
In September, S&P Global announced Palantir would join the S&P 500 stock index.
Analysts at Argus Research say the rally has pushed the stock too high given the current financials and growth projections. The analysts still have a long-term buy rating on the stock and said in a report last week that the company had a “stellar” quarter, but they downgraded their 12-month recommendation to a hold.
The stock “may be getting ahead of what the company fundamentals can support,” the analysts wrote.
Charles Liang, chief executive officer of Super Micro Computer Inc., during the Computex conference in Taipei, Taiwan, on Wednesday, June 5, 2024. The trade show runs through June 7.
Annabelle Chih | Bloomberg | Getty Images
Super Micro Computer could be headed down a path to getting kicked off the Nasdaq as soon as Monday.
That’s the potential fate for the server company if it fails to file a viable plan for becoming compliant with Nasdaq regulations. Super Micro is late in filing its 2024 year-end report with the SEC, and has yet to replace its accounting firm. Many investors were expecting clarity from Super Micro when the company reported preliminary quarterly results last week. But they didn’t get it.
The primary component of that plan is how and when Super Micro will file its 2024 year-end report with the Securities and Exchange Commission, and why it was late. That report is something many expected would be filed alongside the company’s June fourth-quarter earnings but was not.
The Nasdaq delisting process represents a crossroads for Super Micro, which has been one of the primary beneficiaries of the artificial intelligence boom due to its longstanding relationship with Nvidia and surging demand for the chipmaker’s graphics processing units.
The one-time AI darling is reeling after a stretch of bad news. After Super Micro failed to file its annual report over the summer, activist short seller Hindenburg Research targeted the company in August, alleging accounting fraud and export control issues. The company’s auditor, Ernst & Young, stepped down in October, and Super Micro said last week that it was still trying to find a new one.
The stock is getting hammered. After the shares soared more than 14-fold from the end of 2022 to their peak in March of this year, they’ve since plummeted by 85%. Super Micro’s stock is now equal to where it was trading in May 2022, after falling another 11% on Thursday.
Getting delisted from the Nasdaq could be next if Super Micro doesn’t file a compliance plan by the Monday deadline or if the exchange rejects the company’s submission. Super Micro could also get an extension from the Nasdaq, giving it months to come into compliance. The company said Thursday that it would provide a plan to the Nasdaq in time.
A spokesperson told CNBC the company “intends to take all necessary steps to achieve compliance with the Nasdaq continued listing requirements as soon as possible.”
While the delisting issue mainly affects the stock, it could also hurt Super Micro’s reputation and standing with its customers, who may prefer to simply avoid the drama and buy AI servers from rivals such as Dell or HPE.
“Given that Super Micro’s accounting concerns have become more acute since Super Micro’s quarter ended, its weakness could ultimately benefit Dell more in the coming quarter,” Bernstein analyst Toni Sacconaghi wrote in a note this week.
A representative for the Nasdaq said the exchange doesn’t comment on the delisting process for individual companies, but the rules suggest the process could take about a year before a final decision.
A plan of compliance
The Nasdaq warned Super Micro on Sept. 17 that it was at risk of being delisted. That gave the company 60 days to submit a plan of compliance to the exchange, and because the deadline falls on a Sunday, the effective date for the submission is Monday.
If Super Micro’s plan is acceptable to Nasdaq staff, the company is eligible for an extension of up to 180 days to file its year-end report. The Nasdaq wants to see if Super Micro’s board of directors has investigated the company’s accounting problem, what the exact reason for the late filing was and a timeline of actions taken by the board.
The Nasdaq says it looks at several factors when evaluating a plan of compliance, including the reasons for the late filing, upcoming corporate events, the overall financial status of the company and the likelihood of a company filing an audited report within 180 days. The review can also look at information provided by outside auditors, the SEC or other regulators.
Last week, Super Micro said it was doing everything it could to remain listed on the Nasdaq, and said a special committee of its board had investigated and found no wrongdoing. Super Micro CEO Charles Liang said the company would receive the board committee’s report as soon as last week. A company spokesperson didn’t respond when asked by CNBC if that report had been received.
If the Nasdaq rejects Super Micro’s compliance plan, the company can request a hearing from the exchange’s Hearings Panel to review the decision. Super Micro won’t be immediately kicked off the exchange – the hearing panel request starts a 15-day stay for delisting, and the panel can decide to extend the deadline for up to 180 days.
If the panel rejects that request or if Super Micro gets an extension and fails to file the updated financials, the company can still appeal the decision to another Nasdaq body called the Listing Council, which can grant an exception.
Ultimately, the Nasdaq says the extensions have a limit: 360 days from when the company’s first late filing was due.
A poor track record
There’s one factor at play that could hurt Super Micro’s chances of an extension. The exchange considers whether the company has any history of being out of compliance with SEC regulations.
Between 2015 and 2017, Super Micro misstated financials and published key filings late, according to the SEC. It was delisted from the Nasdaq in 2017 and was relisted two years later.
Super Micro “might have a more difficult time obtaining extensions as the Nasdaq’s literature indicates it will in part ‘consider the company’s specific circumstances, including the company’s past compliance history’ when determining whether an extension is warranted,” Wedbush analyst Matt Bryson wrote in a note earlier this month. He has a neutral rating on the stock.
History also reveals just how long the delisting process can take.
Charles Liang, chief executive officer of Super Micro Computer Inc., right, and Jensen Huang, co-founder and chief executive officer of Nvidia Corp., during the Computex conference in Taipei, Taiwan, on Wednesday, June 5, 2024.
Annabelle Chih | Bloomberg | Getty Images
Super Micro missed an annual report filing deadline in June 2017, got an extension to December and finally got a hearing in May 2018, which gave it another extension to August of that year. It was only when it missed that deadline that the stock was delisted.
In the short term, the bigger worry for Super Micro is whether customers and suppliers start to bail.
Aside from the compliance problems, Super Micro is a fast-growing company making one of the most in-demand products in the technology industry. Sales more than doubled last year to nearly $15 billion, according to unaudited financial reports, and the company has ample cash on its balance sheet, analysts say. Wall Street is expecting even more growth to about $25 billion in sales in its fiscal 2025, according to FactSet.
Super Micro said last week that the filing delay has “had a bit of an impact to orders.” In its unaudited September quarter results reported last week, the company showed growth that was slower than Wall Street expected. It also provided light guidance.
The company said one reason for its weak results was that it hadn’t yet obtained enough supply of Nvidia’s next-generation chip, called Blackwell, raising questions about Super Micro’s relationship with its most important supplier.
“We don’t believe that Super Micro’s issues are a big deal for Nvidia, although it could move some sales around in the near term from one quarter to the next as customers direct orders toward Dell and others,” wrote Melius Research analyst Ben Reitzes in a note this week.
Super Micro’s head of corporate development, Michael Staiger, told investors on a call last week that “we’ve spoken to Nvidia and they’ve confirmed they’ve made no changes to allocations. We maintain a strong relationship with them.”
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