Bitcoin miners brace for impact as halving goes live
AUSTIN, TEXAS — Adam Sullivan left investment banking to mine bitcoin at an awkward time. It was May 2023, bitcoin was trading at around $21,000, U.S. regulators were in the thick of cracking down on the sector writ large, and Core Scientific, the company he had agreed to take over, was battling angry lenders in a Texas bankruptcy court over tens of millions of dollars in outstanding debt.
But Sullivan knew that, with a lifeline, he could get the business to a much better place. That’s because the halving was on the way, and with it would likely come a big rally in bitcoin.
Late Friday night, the bitcoin code automatically cut new issuance of the world’s largest cryptocurrency in half. It happens roughly every four years, and in addition to helping to stave off inflation, it historically precedes a major run-up in the price of bitcoin.
The technical event is relatively simple: Bitcoin miners get paid in bitcoin to validate transactions, and after 210,000 blocks of transactions are computed and added to the main chain, the reward given to the miners securing bitcoin is ‘halved.’
There are more than a dozen publicly traded miners on the network and thousands of smaller, private ones around the globe, constantly racing to process transactions and get paid in new bitcoin. Because the event leads to a cut to rewards paid to miners directly, they’ll be the first ones to feel the impact of the halving.
The price of bitcoin has touched new all-time highs after each “halving” event.
CNBC
Typically, when the halving cuts supply, it’s led to huge rallies for bitcoin.
In fact, the previous (and only) three halvings in the chain’s history have come before every bull run, in which the coin has touched new all-time highs and a surge of investors have entered the market for the first time.
That rapid price increase has helped many miners stave off the worst since it tends to offset the impact of having the block prize cut in half.
“As a company that was already in the process of scaling our infrastructure during the previous halving, we know the toll that halvings can take on a company if it is not adequately prepared,” Core’s Sullivan told CNBC.
The aggregate market cap of the 14 U.S.-listed bitcoin miners tracked by JPMorgan analysts declined 28% over the first half of April to $14.2 billion, reaching year-to-date lows. Bitdeer was the best-performing stock over the period, down around 20%, versus Stronghold Digital, which was 46% lower.
Some have billed the 2024 bitcoin halving as a seminal moment for the mining sector. Depending on how much prep work miners have done, it could easily make or break them.
“Being prepared for a halving means evaluating all of your power strategies, all of your software capabilities, all of your operations,” continued Sullivan.
Others are less concerned given recent price moves in bitcoin.
In a research note from Needham on Apr. 16, analysts said they expect the halving to only have a modest impact to miners’ estimated EBITDA margins, despite the 50% reduction in revenue, since the price of bitcoin has been trading in the range of $60,000 to $70,000.
“We expect geopolitical tensions and interest rate policy to be the biggest near-term drivers of crypto price action,” Needham analysts wrote, adding that at a bitcoin price above $60,000, the halving is “derisked for nearly all public miners.”
The bank did, however, single out their preference for low-cost bitcoin producers like Riot Platforms, Bitdeer, and Cipher Mining. Meanwhile, if bitcoin prices fall, Needham says the most outsized native impact will be felt by higher cost producers that are also levered to higher bitcoin prices via large treasury holdings.
Analysts from JPMorgan echoed a similar sentiment, writing in an Apr. 16 research note that they think “recent weakness offers an attractive entry point” for investors and that they are “especially bullish” on Riot, which they believe offers attractive relative valuations.
The 14 U.S.-listed miners tracked by JPMorgan account for around 21% of the bitcoin global network.
Power supply for Whinstone’s bitcoin mine in Rockdale, Texas.
Years spent bracing for the halving
Miners have had years to prepare for the halving, including seeking lower power costs and upgrading their fleets to more efficient machines.
“Bitcoin’s halving happens like clockwork every four years,” said Haris Basit, chief strategy officer of Bitdeer Technologies Group. “It’s a known variable that is a benchmark for us to remain focused on operational excellence.”
To that end, the Singapore-headquartered mining firm has invested in new data centers, but its core strategy has been to increase vertical integration through research and development. 25% of its staff is focused on R&D efforts, which Basit says have “led to new innovations and revenue pathways, such as our recently announced 4nm mining rigs and AI Cloud offerings.”
Analysts at Cantor Fitzgerald recently named Bitdeer as having one of the industry’s lowest “all-in” cost-per-coin.
Greg Beard, the CEO and Chairman of Stronghold Digital Mining, tells CNBC that miners whose only lever is more efficient machines will be at a disadvantage.
“Miners who own their low-cost power are better positioned,” said Beard. “Operational costs will be lower, allowing them to be more flexible with their capital.”
Core’s Sullivan agrees, noting that bitcoin mining data centers in the future will work hand-in-glove with power generators and grid operators to serve as a virtual battery for grid operators – allowing them to increase base load, curtail bitcoin data centers when they need to, and avoid peak generation loads, which he says are dirty and expensive.
“We own and operate our infrastructure, giving us greater control over operational and strategic decisions, such as the potential to expand into high-performance computing hosting,” said Sullivan.
Core Scientific, which launched in 2017 and now manages seven mining sites in five U.S. states, also owns the full technology stack. The company has been looking to diversify its revenue streams beyond purely bitcoin. Sullivan says that existing data centers offer reconfiguration opportunities to accommodate new types of high-value compute.
“Certain data centers are located in close proximity to major metropolitan areas, making them candidates for low-latency, high-value compute applications,” said Core’s CEO.
Bitdeer’s bitcoin mine in Rockdale, Texas.
Riot Platforms CEO Jason Les told CNBC that preparation for the halving came down to the company’s long-standing focus on achieving a low cost of power, strong balance sheet, and significant scale of operations. Les says that’s what has positioned the firm to both withstand the halving with positive margins and be well positioned for upside on the other side of it.
“Our new Corsicana Facility was energized just this week, and we will be significantly scaling up our hash rate with next-generation equipment at that new site over the remainder of the year,” said Les. “As a result, we are positioned to mine more bitcoin per day at the end of the year than we do today, despite the halving.”
Marathon Digital, which has grown more than 70% in the last year, took a different approach to scaling the business than its rivals. CEO Fred Thiel tells CNBC that the company grew quickly using an asset-light approach, where Capex was spent on mining rigs rather than infrastructure.
“In December, we owned less than 5% of the sites where we were hosting our miners,” said Thiel. “Today we now own 53% of our total 1.1 gigawatts of capacity, having purchased it at less than the build and replacement cost.”
Owning sites lowers Marathon’s cost to mine by up to 20% on a marginal cost basis. Thiel also noted that by the end of 2024, Marathon expects to further improve efficiency by 10% to 15% as they deploy the next generation rigs across their new sites.
That boost to efficiency isn’t just about new gear, however. The firm is deploying its custom firmware, which allows it to operate even more efficiently.
Marathon, along with other mining firms, has begun diversifying its business model into ancillary operations beyond purely bitcoin mining.
Thiel says the company recently launched an energy harvesting division, where they are compensated to convert stranded methane and bio-mass into energy and then sell heat back into an industrial or commercial process, which essentially subsidizes and lowers our cost to mine significantly. Marathon expects this new business line to generate a significant portion of its revenues by the halving in 2028.
Diversifying revenue
The April 2024 bitcoin halving looks a lot different than the three that came before it.
For years, increased competition resulting from new miners coming online has been cutting into profits, because more miners means more people are sharing the same pool of rewards.
In a research note from JPMorgan on Apr. 16, analysts note that the network hashrate, a proxy for industry competition and mining difficulty, was up 4% in April from the month before. Stronghold’s Beard says the halving is a headwind dwarfed by the global hashrate increasing nearly five-fold from the last one in May 2020.
“Mining is a tough industry especially because there are a lot of nation states that have extra power power and they’re dedicating it to mining,” said Nic Carter of Castle Island Ventures. “It’s a free market, anybody can enter into it as long as they basics.”
U.S. spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds have also significantly shifted the pricing dynamics. In years past, the price of bitcoin didn’t surge until after the halving. But in the wake of record flows into these spot bitcoin funds, the world’s largest cryptocurrency touched a fresh all-time-high above $73,000 in March.
“The recently approved Bitcoin ETFs have proven to be huge pipelines of capital into Bitcoin and that universe of ETFs continues to grow with the recent approvals in Hong Kong as well,” said Riot’s Les. “We think the price action we’ve seen in bitcoin year-to-date reflect that and has us very optimistic on what bitcoin mining economics can look like in the months and years post-halving.”
Blackrock’s ETF reached $17 billion in net assets within a few months of launching. Beard of Stronghold tells CNBC that if Blackrock added even just a billion dollars more of bitcoin in April to its ETF, it would single handedly create demand for more coins than the mining industry will supply post halving.
What is also different this time around is that the block reward is no longer the primary form of miner revenue. Recent programming innovations in bitcoin have given way to a burgeoning ecosystem of projects building on top of bitcoin’s blockchain, which has translated to greater transaction fee revenue for miners.
There is a limit to how large the blocks can go but the value of those blocks is about to increase significantly, according to Bill Barhydt, who is the CEO and founder of Abra. From Barhydt’s vantage point, he supports miners with a mix of services, including their auto liquidations, so he has access to a lot of macro data across the sector.
“The math is simple,” begins Barhydt. “Bitcoin blocks are fixed in size and the demand for data within those blocks is going to increase significantly for several reasons, including more retail wallet holders moving their Bitcoin into and out of storage, new uses cases like Ordinals (NFT’s for Bitcoin) and DeFi on Bitcoin, institutional settlement requirements for exchange traded products in the U.S., Hong Kong, Europe, etc, lightning settlement transactions and more.”
At the current rate of adoption, Barhydt believes that transaction fees in this cycle would likely peak within 24 months at 10 times their cost during the previous cycle peak, due to a combination of a higher price for bitcoin itself, combined with higher demand for the space inside each block.
Castle Island’s Carter isn’t so sure that fee-based revenue can completely make up for lost income post-halving.
“It’s not entirely clear that fees are fully offsetting the lost revenue, and in fact, I don’t expect that to happen” said Carter.
Fees tend to be really cyclical. They rise sharply during periods of congestion, and they fall back to near zero during other normal periods. Carter cautions that miners will see spikes in fees, but there is not yet an enduring, strong, and robust fee market most of the time.
Swapping ASICs for AI
In the last year, there has been a surge in demand for AI compute and infrastructure that can support the massive workloads required to power these novel machine learning applications. In a new report, digital asset fund manager CoinShares says it expects to see more miners shift toward artificial intelligence in energy-secure locations because of the potential for higher revenues.
Already, mining firms like BitDigital, Hive, Hut 8, Terawfulf, and Core Scientific all have current AI operations or AI growth plans.
“This trend suggests that bitcoin mining may increasingly move to stranded energy sites while investment in AI grows at more stable locations,” write analysts CoinShares.
But pivoting from bitcoin mining to AI isn’t as simple as re-purposing existing infrastructure and machines. The datacenter infrastructure is different, as are the data network needs.
“AI presents several challenges, notably the need for distinct and considerably more costly infrastructure, which establishes barriers to entry for smaller, less capitalized entities,” continues the report. “Additionally, the necessity for a different skill set among employees leads to increased costs as companies hire more AI-skilled talent.”
The rigs used to mine bitcoin are called ASICs, short for Application-Specific Integrated Circuits. The “Specific” in that acronym means that it can’t be used to do other things, like supporting the underlying infrastructure for AI market.
“If you’re a bitcoin miner, your machines can’t be repurposed,” explains Carter. “You have to buy net new machines in order to do it and the datacenter requirements are different for AI versus bitcoin mining.”
Sullivan says that Core Scientific, which has been mining a mix of digital assets since 2017, began to diversify into other services in 2019.
“The company has owned and hosted Nvidia DGX systems andGPUs for AI computing, having built and deployed a specialized facility specifically for high-value compute applications at our Dalton, Georgia data center campus,” he said.
Core has also partnered with CoreWeave, a cloud provider which provides infrastructure for use cases like machine learning.
Sullivan says the combined capabilities will support both AI and High Performance Compute workloads, resulting in an estimated revenue of $100 million, though he says the total potential revenue is much higher given their significant infrastructure footprint that can be fitted to host some of the most advanced GPU compute coming to market.
“Bitcoin mining is an early example of high-value compute, attracting significant capital and a number of companies scaling their operations to support the Bitcoin Network,” said Sullivan.
But Sullivan thinks few operators will be able to make the transition to AI.
Sullivan continued, “Bitcoin mining sites can only be repurposed if they meet the attributes that are required for HPC. Many existing sites across North America do not meet these needs.”
In a bold bid to combat the crippling air pollution crisis in its capital, Delhi, Indian lawmakers have begun high-level discussions about a plan to phase out gas and diesel combustion vehicles by 2035 – a move that could cause a seismic shift in the global EV space and provide a cleaner, greener future for India’s capital.
Long considered one of the world’s most polluted capital cities, Indian capital Delhi is taking drastic steps to cut back pollution with a gas and diesel engine ban coming soon – but they want results faster than that. As such, Delhi is starting with a city-wide ban on refueling vehicles more than 15 years old, and it went into effect earlier this week. (!)
“We are installing gadgets at petrol pumps which will identify vehicles older than 15 years, and no fuel will be provided to them,” said Delhi Environment Minister Manjinder Singh Sirsa … but they’re not stopping there. “Additionally, we will intensify scrutiny of heavy vehicles entering Delhi to ensure they meet prescribed environmental standards before being allowed entry.”
Making it prohibitively difficult for Dehli’s residents to own and operate older, presumably more polluting vehicles is one way to reduce harmful emissions and air pollution, but Sirsa’s team isn’t just targeting newer vehicles. They’re also planning to deploy more than 900 electric transit buses, part of a larger plan to replace 5,000 of the city’s 7,500 total bus with lower- or zero-emission options this year alone.
The Economic Times is reporting that discussions are underway to pass laws requiring that all future bus purchases will be required to be electric or “clean fuel” (read: CNG or hydrogen) by the end of this year, with a gas/diesel ban on “three-wheelers and light goods vehicles,” (commercial tuk-tuks and delivery mopeds) potentially coming 2026 to 2027 and a similar ban privately owned and operated cars and bikes coming “between 2030 and 2035.”
Electrek’s Take
After a Chinese government study linked air pollution caused by automotive exhausts and coal-fired power plants to more than 1.1 million deaths per year in 2013, the nation’s government took serious action, shuttering older coal plants and imposing strict emissions standards. The country also incentivized EV adoption through license-plate lotteries favoring electric cars and a nationwide EV mandate set to kick in by 2030.
The results were astounding, and the technological innovations that have come from an entire nation of talented engineers all “pulling in the same direction” have put the West to shame, with Western auto executives repeatedly sounding the alarm and lobbying for tariffs and other protectionist policies on both sides of the Atlantic.
To see India make move towards a gas and diesel ban like this, and on such an aggressive timeline, can only mean that they’ve been paying attention … and America is about to fall even further behind.
SOURCE: India Times; featured image by Sumita Roy Dutta.
FTC: We use income earning auto affiliate links. More.
Last week, Parker Hannifin launched what they’re calling the industry’s first certified Mobile Electrification Technology Center to train mobile equipment technicians make the transition from conventional diesel engines to modern electric motors.
The electrification of mobile equipment is opening new doors for construction and engineering companies working in indoor, environmentally sensitive, or noise-regulated urban environments – but it also poses a new set of challenges that, while they mirror some of the challenges internal combustion faced a century ago, aren’t yet fully solved. These go beyond just getting energy to the equipment assets’ batteries, and include the integration of hydraulic implements, electronic controls, and the myriad of upfit accessories that have been developed over the last five decades to operate on 12V power.
At the same time, manufacturers and dealers have to ensure the safety of their technicians, which includes providing comprehensive training on the intricacies of high-voltage electric vehicle repair and maintenance – and that’s where Parker’s new mobile equipment training program comes in, helping to accelerate the shift to EVs.
“We are excited to partner with these outstanding distributors at a higher level. Their commitment to designing innovative mobile electrification systems aligns perfectly with our vision to empower machine manufacturers in reducing their environmental footprint while enhancing operational efficiency,” explains Mark Schoessler, VP of sales for Parker’s Motion Systems Group. “Their expertise in designing mobile electrification systems and their capability to deliver integrated solutions will help to maximize the impact of Parker’s expanding METC network.”
The manufacturing equipment experts at Nott Company were among the first to go through the Parker Hannifin training program, certifying their technicians on Parker’s electric motors, drives, coolers, controllers and control systems.
“We are proud to be recognized for our unwavering dedication to advancing mobile electrification technologies and delivering cutting-edge solutions,” says Nott CEO, Markus Rauchhaus. “This milestone would not have been possible without our incredible partners, customers and the team at Nott Company.”
In addition to Nott, two other North American distributors (Depatie Fluid Power in Portage, Michigan, and Hydradyne in Fort Worth, Texas) have completed the Parker certification.
Electrek’s Take
With the rise of electric equipment assets like Bobcat’s T7X compact track loader and E10e electric excavator that eliminate traditional hydraulics and rely on high-voltage battery systems, specialized electrical systems training is becoming increasingly important. Seasoned, steady hands with decades of diesel and hydraulic systems experience are obsolete, and they’ll need to learn new skills to stay relevant.
Certification programs like Parker’s are working to bridge that skills gap, equipping technicians with the skills to maximize performance while mitigating risks associated with high-voltage systems. Here’s hoping more of these start popping up sooner than later.
SOURCE | IMAGES: Parker Hannifin.
FTC: We use income earning auto affiliate links. More.
Based on a Peterbilt 579 commercial semi truck, the ReVolt EREV hybrid electric semi truck promises 40% better fuel economy and more than twice the torque of a conventional, diesel-powered semi. The concept has promise – and now, it has customers.
Austin, Texas-based ReVolt Motors scored its first win with specialist carrier Page Trucking, who’s rolling the dice on five of the Peterbilt 579-based hybrid big rigs — with another order for 15 more of the modified Petes waiting in the wings if the initial five work out.
The deal will see ReVolt’s “dual-power system” put to the test in real-world conditions, pairing its e-axles’ battery-electric torque with up to 1,200 miles of diesel-extended range.
ReVolt Motors team
The ReVolt team starts off with a Peterbilt, then removes the transmission and drive axle, replacing them with a large genhead and batteries. As the big Pete’s diesel engine runs (that’s right, kids – the engine stays in place), it creates electrical energy that’s stored in the trucks’ batteries. Those electrons then flow to the truck’s 670 hp e-axles, putting down a massive, 3500 lb-ft of Earth-moving torque to the ground at 0 rpm.
The result is an electrically-driven semi truck that works like a big BMW i3 or other EREV, and packs enough battery capacity to operate as a ZEV (sorry, ZET) in ports and urban clean zones. And, more importantly, allows over-the-road drivers to hotel for up to 34 hours without idling the engine or requiring a grid connection.
That ability to “hotel” in the cab is incredibly important, especially as the national shortage of semi truck parking continues to worsen and the number of goods shipped across America’s roads continues to increase.
And, because the ReVolt trucks can hotel without the noise and emissions of diesel or the loss of range of pure electric, they can immediately “plug in” to existing long-haul routes without the need to wait for a commercial truck charging infrastructure to materialize.
“Drivers should not have to choose between losing their longtime routes because of changing regulatory environments or losing the truck in which they have already made significant investments,” explains Gus Gardner, ReVolt founder and CEO. “American truckers want their trucks to reflect their identity, and our retrofit technology allows them to continue driving the trucks they love while still making a living.”
If all of that sounds familiar, it’s probably because you’ve heard of Hyliion.
Hyliion electric semi truck
Before it changed its focus to develop Carnot-cycle generators and gensets, Austin-based Hyliion built a number of EREV Peterbilts using the then-new 15L Cummins diesel as a generator and employing the same sort of battery and e-axle-arrangement as ReVolt.
In addition to being located in the same town and employing the same idea in the same Peterbilt 579 tractor, ReVolt even employs some of the same key players as Hyliion: both the company’s CTO, Chandra Patil, and its Director of Engineering, Blake Witchie, previously worked at Hyliion’s truck works.
Still, Hyliion made their choice when they shut down their truck business. ReVolt seems to have picked up the ball – and their first customer is eager to run with it.
“Our industry is undergoing a major transition, and fleet owners need practical solutions that make financial sense while reducing our environmental impact,” said Dan Titus, CEO of Page Trucking. “ReVolt’s hybrid drivetrain lowers our fuel costs, providing our drivers with a powerful and efficient truck, all without the need for expensive charging infrastructure or worrying about state compliance mandates. The reduced emissions also enable our customers to reduce their Scope 2 emissions.”
Page Trucking has a fleet of approximately 500 trucks in service, serving the agriculture, hazardous materials, and bulk commodities industries throughout Texas. And, if ReVolt’s EREV semis live up to their promise, expect them to operate a lot more than 20 of ’em.
SOURCES | IMAGES: ReVolt; via Power Progress, TTNews.
FTC: We use income earning auto affiliate links. More.
-
Sports2 years ago‘Storybook stuff’: Inside the night Bryce Harper sent the Phillies to the World Series
-
Sports1 year agoStory injured on diving stop, exits Red Sox game
-
Sports1 year agoGame 1 of WS least-watched in recorded history
-
Sports2 years agoMLB Rank 2023: Ranking baseball’s top 100 players
-
Sports4 years ago
Team Europe easily wins 4th straight Laver Cup
-
Environment2 years agoJapan and South Korea have a lot at stake in a free and open South China Sea
-
Environment2 years agoGame-changing Lectric XPedition launched as affordable electric cargo bike
-
Business3 years agoBank of England’s extraordinary response to government policy is almost unthinkable | Ed Conway