NFL experts debate the 2024 draft: Best picks and biggest head-scratchers
The 2024 NFL draft brought record-breaking trends, including six quarterbacks picked in Round 1 for the first time since 1983 and eight offensive tackles taken in Round 1, which ties 2008 for the most ever. Now that more than a week has passed since the draft concluded, our NFL experts have had time to assess the class.
We asked our analysts and insiders to answer some of the draft’s biggest questions. We’ll begin with their favorite picks and the biggest head-scratching selections — some of which don’t involve quarterback Michael Penix Jr. going to the Atlanta Falcons in the top 10. We’ll continue to update this story with a new topic every day this week, including rookie classes our analysts believe will make the biggest impacts, Rookie of the Year picks, fantasy sleepers and bold predictions.
Who were the best picks in this class? Which were the most puzzling? Our experts dive in on the top takeaways:
Jump to a question:
Favorite picks | Biggest head-scratchers
Who was your favorite pick in the entire draft?
Stephania Bell, fantasy football analyst: Cornerback Quinyon Mitchell to the Philadelphia Eagles at No. 22. When a team fills a need with a standout prospect without breaking the bank to do it, it’s a winner. Mitchell is fast and agile and allowed no touchdowns in over 400 coverage snaps last season. He rose many draft boards in recent months … and yet, the Eagles were able to surprise the competition by snagging him here.
Matt Bowen, NFL analyst: Cornerback Mike Sainristil to the Washington Commanders at No. 50. A nickel corner with a playmaking mentality, Sainristil was one of my favorite defensive backs to study. He led Michigan’s defense last season with six interceptions and seven pass breakups. Look for him to play a disruptive role as a rookie in Dan Quinn’s defensive system.
Mike Clay, fantasy football analyst: Wide receiver Ladd McConkey to the Los Angeles Chargers at No. 34. The Chargers moved on from Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, Austin Ekeler and Gerald Everett during the offseason, a foursome responsible for 55% of the team’s targets over the past two seasons. Enter McConkey, who is an excellent fit as a potential Allen replacement in the short-to-intermediate area for quarterback Justin Herbert. Even in a run-heavy offense, McConkey, who came out of Georgia, has a path to massive volume right out of the gate.
Jeremy Fowler, national NFL writer: Wide receiver Malik Nabers to the New York Giants at No. 6. For all the hand-wringing about the Giants’ quarterback outlook, the truth is New York quarterbacks haven’t had a true top-10 receiver since Odell Beckham Jr. Nabers might have the highest ceiling of any offensive player in the draft. Several teams in the top 15 coveted him. Give quarterback Daniel Jones a chance with a guy of this caliber, and see what happens.
Matt Miller, NFL draft analyst: Wide receiver Rome Odunze to the Chicago Bears at No. 9. Let’s give the Bears credit for not overthinking and simply drafting great players. With a rookie quarterback added in Caleb Williams, selecting a go-to receiver for him to learn and grow with was brilliant. It also helps that the two trained together, building chemistry in the pre-draft process. Odunze was my No. 3 overall prospect, which means Chicago drafted two of my top three players in this class.
Eric Moody, fantasy and sports betting analyst: Offensive lineman Graham Barton to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at No. 26. As an ex-offensive lineman, it was a pleasure breaking down Barton’s film. He’s consistent and showcases maximum effort on every play without mental errors. Barton can play center, guard or tackle as a rookie, and I believe he’ll have a superior career to some of the names drafted ahead of him.
Jason Reid, senior Andscape writer: Quarterback Michael Penix Jr. to the Atlanta Falcons at No. 8. I understand everything about the Falcons’ commitment to quarterback Kirk Cousins, the salary cap implications and the potential for strife within the locker room. But if the Falcons are right about Penix, none of that will matter in the long run. If a team believes it has identified a potential transformational player at the most important position in sports, well, it has to go get him. It’s that simple.
Jordan Reid, NFL draft analyst: Edge rusher Dallas Turner to the Minnesota Vikings at No. 17. Minnesota hasn’t drafted an edge rusher in the first two rounds since 2005 (Erasmus James). The team needed to replenish its talent off of the edge after losing Danielle Hunter in free agency. While the team signed Jonathan Greenard and Andrew Van Ginkel during free agency, Turner provides a high upside as a pass-rusher in Brian Flores’ defense. Turner led Alabama with 10 sacks and 45 pressures last season.
1:26
Fantasy projections for the 2024 rookie NFL pass catchers
Check out Mike Clay’s fantasy projections for Marvin Harrison Jr., Malik Nabers, Rome Odunze, Brock Bowers and Brian Thomas Jr.
Aaron Schatz, NFL writer: Wide receiver Adonai Mitchell to the Indianapolis Colts at No. 52. Analytics suggest there is no such thing as a “draft steal” because prospects drop from consensus for good reasons. That being said, Mitchell might have dropped due to off-field concerns, and Colts GM Chris Ballard spoke out against that. This was the No. 5 wide receiver in Playmaker Score but the No. 11 receiver off the board.
Mike Tannenbaum, NFL front office insider: Odunze. He has a legitimate chance to be the best receiver from this draft. Under the motto of “win for today and develop for tomorrow,” the Bears have Allen on a one-year deal, and Odunze has Terrell Owens‘ type of ability. Odunze had 1,640 receiving yards and 13 scores in 2023. This is ideal for Chicago.
Seth Walder, sports analytics writer: Defensive end Laiatu Latu to the Colts at No. 15. Because of medical concerns and the run on offense, the Colts managed to take the edge rusher who led FBS football in pressure rate in each of the past two seasons — yes, ahead of Will Anderson Jr. and Tyree Wilson in 2022 — at No. 15. The Colts might have landed a great one at a premium position in the middle of the first round.
Field Yates, NFL analyst: Odunze. The wideout falling to No. 9 was not a complete surprise, given the anticipated run on quarterbacks early, but it was also not a sure thing. The sixth-highest-rated player on my board could have been the first receiver taken in so many prior drafts, but the presence of Marvin Harrison Jr. and Nabers (the third- and fourth-rated players on my board) made him the third off the board in this class. But don’t be mistaken — Odunze will be an instant impact contributor as one the most polished prospects in the class.
Who was the biggest head-scratching pick of the draft?
Bell: Quarterback Michael Penix Jr. to the Atlanta Falcons at No. 8. It is hard to justify spending this first-round draft capital when the Falcons had declared their nine-figure love for Kirk Cousins weeks earlier. The team did fulfill defensive needs — its most glaring hole entering the draft — in later rounds, but will the strategy of having two QBs capable of starting create less tension in the locker room … or more?
Bowen: Penix. The Falcons built depth behind Cousins with this selection and set up their QB room for the future. However, I saw this as an opportunity for the Falcons to add an impactful defensive player to new coach Raheem Morris’ system, with outside linebacker Dallas Turner and defensive tackle Byron Murphy II still on the board at the time of Atlanta’s pick.
Fowler: Wide receiver Ricky Pearsall to the San Francisco 49ers at No. 31. I’m not about to doubt coach Kyle Shanahan’s eye for offensive skill players, and I love Pearsall as a player. But his place as WR6 in this draft was unexpected. Most teams I spoke to pegged him as a Day 2 pick. Considering the 49ers still have Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk on the roster, bolstering the offensive or defensive line seemed like a sensible play.
Liz Loza, fantasy and sports betting analyst: Tight end Brock Bowers to the Las Vegas Raiders at No. 13. I was stupefied by the Raiders’ selection of Bowers, and it’s not because of his talent level. He’s a potential generational talent with a do-it-all skill set who was expected to come off the board before the first half of the first round. However, Las Vegas spent an early second-round pick on Michael Mayer just a year ago and entered the draft with holes all along the offensive line. In the end, I suppose, the value Bowers presented was too great to pass on.
Moody: Quarterback Bo Nix to the Denver Broncos at No. 12. While he posted prolific numbers at Oregon during his final collegiate season, it’s worth noting that nearly 67% of his passes came within 9 yards of the line of scrimmage. Nix’s selection appears to reflect desperation on the part of a Sean Payton-led Broncos team in need of a quarterback upgrade. I felt like Denver could have traded down and still landed Nix.
Jason Reid: Offensive tackle Tyler Guyton to the Dallas Cowboys at No. 29. Look, I get that the Cowboys had a major need along their offensive line. And the fact that they moved to rebuild it in this draft makes sense. That established, Guyton, while possessing impressive physical tools, is a developmental player. There’s no sugarcoating that.
Jordan Reid: Defensive tackle Ruke Orhorhoro to the Falcons at No. 35. With Jer’Zhan Newton still on the board, it made more sense to take him there. Newton possesses more upside as a rusher and is an ideal interior defender who pairs perfectly with Grady Jarrett. Orhorhoro is unquestionably the better run-defender, but Newton’s combination of explosiveness and disruption would’ve made him the better pick.
Schatz: Penix. Look, I understand the importance of the quarterback position, leading to six quarterbacks chosen in this year’s top 12. You can talk me into the idea that Penix is a better prospect than J.J. McCarthy despite McCarthy doing better in my QBASE projections. But if all goes well, Penix is not going to take a snap in the NFL regular season until he’s 26 years old. The Penix pick isn’t that head-scratching; it’s the Penix pick in conjunction with the Cousins contract.
Walder: Defensive tackle Braden Fiske to the Los Angeles Rams at No. 39. This has little to do with the player and more to do with the circumstances of the pick. The Rams paid an obscene price to move up from No. 52, sacrificing a fifth-round pick and future second-rounder in the process — the most expensive Day 2 overpay in at least the past six drafts and a larger investment than their first-round pick (Jared Verse at No. 19), according to our draft pick valuations. And all this for a player who was at the beginning of his selection range, according to the Draft Day Predictor (in other words, this was a borderline reach).
Yates: Penix. I had a top-of-the-second-round grade on Penix, but quarterbacks always fly off the board earlier than the overall ranks indicate. This is about Atlanta investing in a player who will turn 24 on Wednesday at a position in which only one player will play after paying Cousins $100 million guaranteed in March. One of the great advantages of a quarterback on a rookie contract is the modest cost of his contract, which affords you the ability to spend elsewhere across the roster. The Falcons are not realizing that advantage with Cousins under contract and making $90 million over the first two seasons of Penix’s deal.
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Ryan S. Clark
LAS VEGAS — Just when it appeared that the Vegas Golden Knights finally found an opening in overtime, their chances of winning Game 2 were quickly shut down in controversial fashion.
It wasn’t that the Golden Knights were overlooking what it means to be in a 2-0 series hole following a 5-4 overtime loss Thursday to the Edmonton Oilers on Thursday in Game 2 of the Western Conference semifinals at T-Mobile Arena.
They were more concerned with what they saw, and what they didn’t see from referee Gord Dwyer just 17 seconds before Leon Draisaitl‘s game-winning goal gave the Oilers their first 2-0 series lead since 2017.
Vegas defenseman Brayden McNabb was going toward for the puck when Edmonton winger Viktor Arvidsson‘s stick got between McNabb’s legs, which sent McNabb into the boards. The play wasn’t ruled a penalty, and it led to the Oilers eventually going into transition before Draisaitl converted a 2-on-1 chance for the winner.
“It’s pretty clear it’s a penalty,” Golden Knights captain Mark Stone said. “His stick is between McNabb’s legs, and he sends him headfirst into the boards. It’s a pretty clear-cut penalty in my eyes and I think everybody’s eyes, right? But that’s hockey. You don’t always get the calls.”
Golden Knights coach Bruce Cassidy was a bit more direct about what he saw on the McNabb play.
“Listen, Gord’s looking at it. He blew it. He missed the call,” Cassidy said. “I don’t know what else to say. It’s a can-opener trip, it’s a dangerous play, it’s all those things. But it didn’t get called, so you’ve got to keep playing.”
Cassidy said he didn’t have an immediate update on McNabb’s status for Game 3 on Saturday in Edmonton. If he were to miss Game 3, it would leave the Golden Knights without one of their most important players.
McNabb, who was part of their Stanley Cup-winning team in 2023, is one of their top-pairing options and also a crucial piece of a penalty kill that had a significant role in how the Golden Knights survived so late in overtime.
An urgently aggressive Golden Knights team kept pushing to start the first period before forward Victor Olofsson opened with his first-ever playoff goal on the power play in the first period. Three consecutive goals from Oilers trio Jake Walman, Vasily Podkolzin and Darnell Nurse gave them a 3-1 lead. Golden Knights forward William Karlsson scored late in the second to cut it to 3-2.
Oilers forward Evander Kane doubled the lead to 4-2 within the first two minutes of the third before Olofsson’s second, also on the power play, less than three minutes later again cut the lead to a single goal. The Golden Knights forced overtime when alternate captain and star defenseman Alex Pietrangelo fired a shot from distance with 8:02 remaining in regulation.
Vegas had two chances in the final 30 seconds, only to have them both stopped by Edmonton goaltender Calvin Pickard, who finished with 28 saves, before heading to overtime.
Olofsson had a chance at a game-winning hat trick with a point-blank chance with 18:45 remaining before Nurse’s stick stopped him from having a clean shot.
“Definitely had a lot of good looks, and I think we could have had a couple more goals,” Olofsson said of a Golden Knights team that finished with 19 high-danger scoring chances.
Natural Stat Trick’s metrics show that Vegas’ shot-share in overtime was 66.7%. But even in a period in which they controlled possession, there was a moment when they nearly lost their grip.
Golden Knights forward Nicolas Roy received a five-minute major for cross-checking after his stick connected with Trent Frederic’s face. Roy appeared as if he was trying to play a puck in midair, only to then strike Frederic, which sent the Oilers on the power play.
The NHL’s No. 12 power-play unit in the regular season, the Oilers had a few chances on net but were either stopped by Golden Knights goaltender Adin Hill or had their chances broken up by an aggressive forecheck that allowed them to go through unscathed.
With a pair of power-play goals already, the Golden Knights believed they could have added a third once McNabb went into the boards.
Instead? They watched the Oilers regroup, Draisaitl get on a 2-on-1 and beat Hill for the win.
“This one will sting,” Cassidy said. “But the positives tomorrow will be good. I felt that we outplayed the Oilers for the most part and deserved a better fate. How the guys look at that? If they take it as, ‘We just gotta carry that over’ — we both said we wanted to get better as the series went on and we were certainly better than Game 1. So, we’ll improve on today if we want to get back into it.”
Going back to their first campaign in the 2017-18 season, the Golden Knights have made the playoffs in all but one year. Throughout that time, they’ve been in a 2-0 series hole once, against the Colorado Avalanche in a second-round series back in 2021.
The Golden Knights would come back to win that series with four consecutive victories.
“I liked our game today; we had a lot of good chances,” said Stone, who is one of nine players who remain from that team in 2021. “We put up four goals, and usually when you score four goals, you’re going to win a playoff game. Unfortunately, we didn’t. You can’t get down, you got to go to Edmonton tomorrow, get ready for Saturday night’s game and put your best foot forward and get a win.”
With two games in the books for three of four second-round series, trends have begun to emerge — some not so good for the teams that many picked to make long runs this postseason.
The defending Stanley Cup champion Florida Panthers are in a 2-0 hole, returning home to host the Toronto Maple Leafs for Game 3 (7 p.m. ET, TNT). In Friday’s nightcap, the Dallas Stars will look for another road victory over the Winnipeg Jets (9:30 p.m. ET, TNT).
Read on for game previews with statistical insights from ESPN Research, a recap of what went down in Thursday’s games and the three stars of Thursday from Arda Öcal.
Matchup notes
Toronto Maple Leafs at Florida Panthers
Game 3 | 7 p.m. ET | TNT
In their franchise history, the Maple Leafs have won 84% of their best-of-seven series when going up 2-0. The Panthers are 0-5 in best-of-seven series when trailing 0-2.
This series features the two highest-scoring lines at 5-on-5 this postseason: Eetu Luostarinen–Anton Lundell–Brad Marchand (eight) and Matthew Knies–Auston Matthews–Mitch Marner (seven, including the game-winning goal in Game 2).
William Nylander scored a goal for the third straight game, and he has six goals and 13 points this postseason. He is the second Maple Leaf of the past 30 years to score five goals in a three-game span — joining Alexander Mogilny from 2003 — and the first Maple Leaf since Doug Gilmour in 1993 to have 13 or more points in the first eight games of a postseason.
With a goal in Game 2, Marchand now has 32 postseason points against the Leafs in his career, which is fourth most all time. He trails Gordie Howe (53), Alex Delvecchio (35) and Henri Richard (33).
Stepping in for injured Anthony Stolarz, Joseph Woll saved 25 of 28 shots for Toronto. His counterpart, Sergei Bobrovsky, allowed four goals on 20 shots and has allowed nine total goals through Games 1 and 2. That is tied for the second most he has allowed in a two-game span in his playoff career.
Dallas Stars at Winnipeg Jets
Game 2 | 9:30 p.m. ET | TNT
After a win in Game 1, the Stars are now -360 favorites to win the series, while the Jets are +280, according to ESPN BET. The win for Dallas snapped an eight-game losing streak in Game 1s.
Mikko Rantanen provided all the offense that Dallas needed in the 3-2 win, scoring his second single-period hat trick in as many games. He set a record for the most consecutive team goal contributions (goal or assist) in Stanley Cup playoff history, with 12; the previous mark was nine by Mario Lemieux in 1992.
Game 1 was Jason Robertson‘s first game back after sustaining an injury in the final game of the regular season. He played 13:44, including 1:00 on the power play, and registered one shot.
The opening clash was also Mark Scheifele‘s return to the ice, though his absence was just since April 30 and Game 5 against the Blues in Round 1. Scheifele scored a goal and registered seven shots in 22:36 of ice time.
Winnipeg’s Connor Hellebuyck and Dallas’ Jake Oettinger are considered the two leading candidates to be Team USA’s goaltender at the 2026 Olympics. Oettinger took the first round of the head-to-head battle, saving 29 of 31 shots and getting the W; Hellebuyck saved 21 of 24 shots in defeat.
Öcal’s three stars from Thursday
Wilson was key in the Capitals tying up their series against the Canes. It was the first time he had a playoff game with at least two points, two hits, two blocked shots and three shots on goal.
Draisaitl scored the game winner in overtime as Edmonton takes a 2-0 series lead on Vegas. He joins Esa Tikkanen (from 1991) as the only players in franchise history with multiple OT goals in a single postseason.
Eichel registered three assists in the OT loss to Edmonton, and he now has eight points in his past five games (one goal, seven assists). That ties his own mark for most points in a five-game span in his postseason career.
Thursday’s recaps
Washington Capitals 3, Carolina Hurricanes 1
Series tied 1-1 | Game 3 Saturday
After a loss to the Canes in Game 1, the Capitals looked like a different team as veteran winger Tom Wilson “set the tone,” according to Alex Ovechkin. Connor McMichael started the scoring at 2:16 of the second period, and John Carlson put the Caps up 2-0 with a power-play goal near the start of the third on an assist by Wilson and Dylan Strome. Shayne Gostisbehere pulled Carolina within one with a power-play goal of his own, but Wilson finished them off with an empty-netter with a minute left. Full recap.
0:52
John Carlson buries Caps’ second goal of the night
John Carlson sends the Capitals fans into a frenzy after a beautiful goal early in the third period.
Edmonton Oilers 5, Vegas Golden Knights 4 (OT)
EDM leads 2-0 | Game 3 Saturday
Seeking a win to tie up the series, Vegas was on the board first with a goal from Victor Olofsson at 8:42 of the first period. Edmonton, however, charged back with three straight goals in the second period (from Jake Walman, Vasily Podkolzin and Darnell Nurse), before William Karlsson drew the Knights within one at 18:10. Evander Kane put the Oilers back up by two at 1:52 of the third, before Vegas rallied with goals by Olofsson and Alex Pietrangelo to send the game to OT. Leon Draisaitl tallied the game winner, giving the Oilers a 5-4 win and a 2-0 series lead heading home to Alberta. Full recap.
3:32
Oilers prevail in OT to take 2-0 series lead
Scott Van Pelt recaps the Oilers’ thrilling 5-4 overtime win over the Golden Knights to take a 2-0 series lead.
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