
The NL East race? Justin Verlander? What we’re watching the final two weeks of the MLB season
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adminAs the 2022 regular season has winded down, all eyes have been on Aaron Judge’s chase to break Roger Maris’ American League record for most home runs in a single season and Albert Pujols’ race to 700 career home runs.
One of those milestones has been reached, with Pujols hitting two home runs against the Dodgers in Los Angeles to join the elusive 700 club, while Judge sits at 60 homers, two away from the record.
While these have surely been two of the most exciting storylines the past couple of months, there is still plenty left to play for in the final weeks of the season. Will the Atlanta Braves or New York Mets come out on top of the NL East and secure the No. 2 spot in the National League? Are there any players to pay special attention to before the postseason?
The season ends on Oct. 5, with the postseason scheduled to begin two days later. What should we be watching? ESPN MLB experts Bradford Doolittle, Buster Olney, Jeff Passan and David Schoenfield tell you everything you need to know. Let’s get into it.
Which playoff races are you following most closely the final two weeks of the season?
Doolittle: The race with the most impact on the playoff bracket is the one for the NL East title between the Braves and Mets. In terms of the overall season, these are the second- and third-best teams in the NL, in whatever order you want to put them in. The winner of the division gets a first-round bye. The second-place team gets to host a wild-card series, starting the playoff fatigue meter on its pitching staff, and if it survives that, then it gets to face a rested and unusually strong Los Angeles Dodgers team. Score one for the new format because this is a race for first place with some real stakes on the table.
Olney: There is some intrigue built around the home-field advantages in the American League, specifically the Seattle Mariners and Toronto Blue Jays. A three-game series in Seattle would be intense, given the great history of Mariners fans supporting their laundry, and any series in Toronto seems to carry a special passion. But let’s face it, down the stretch, we will be locked into the resolution of the NL East, because you could argue that these are two of the four best teams — and the loser will have an extra playoff round to hurdle.
Passan: Well, seeing as there are only three real races and nobody has mentioned the third, I’ll give some love to the sprint — or jog … or crawl — for the final two NL wild-card spots. The San Diego Padres hold the first and have that could-get-hot-and-do-a-lot-of-damage-in-October feel to them. The Philadelphia Phillies shook off their miserable start and, like San Diego, are top-heavy. And the Milwaukee Brewers, after getting lapped by the St. Louis Cardinals in the Central, have hung around by doing what they do well: hitting tanks and pitching. It might not be the sexiest race, but for now, it’s a race nonetheless. And for that we should celebrate — or appreciate … or acknowledge.
Schoenfield: I was just out in Seattle and saw more Mariners gear and heard more Mariners talk than I have in a long, long time. The recent tough stretch and the injuries to Julio Rodriguez and Eugenio Suarez have Mariners fans thinking a lot of bad thoughts — and as one of those fans, those thoughts are admittedly hard to avoid given the 21-year playoff drought. So while the NL East race is certainly more important — as Brad alluded to, delaying that pitching fatigue meter for a round could be huge — my eyes are on that wild-card race.
Which remaining series do you have circled on your calendar?
Doolittle: There isn’t a whole lot left on the docket in terms of teams facing each other who are competing for the same thing over these last couple of weeks. A notable exception to that is next weekend when the Mets visit the Braves in Cobb County. The division should be on the line in a playoff atmosphere and all that.
Olney: Mets at Braves next weekend, largely because we’ve got the last game for Sunday Night Baseball, but also because there will be so much at stake. Depending how the Mets handle their rotation in the last two weeks, it looks like we could have Jacob deGrom in that game, which would be a blast.
Passan: The only series in the season’s final three days between two teams with October dreams is Philadelphia at Houston. Currently, the Phillies are lined up to throw Aaron Nola in Game 1, Ranger Suarez in Game 2 and the unfortunately named Bailey Falter in Game 3. Philadelphia understandably wants to have a postseason spot locked up by then, because the prospect of facing Cristian Javier, Lance McCullers Jr. and Justin Verlander in must-win games is a daunting one indeed.
Schoenfield: Besides Mets-Braves and every Mariners series, I’m looking at the season-ending series when the Blue Jays travel to the Baltimore Orioles, which could determine whether the Blue Jays host the wild-card series and/or whether the Orioles get in. But here’s one that has nothing to do with the playoff races but will have history on the line: Colorado Rockies at Dodgers for six games to finish the season. The NL record for wins in a 162-game season is 108, by two legendary clubs — the 1975 Reds and 1986 Mets. The Dodgers won’t catch the 1906 Cubs, who won 116 games, but they have a chance to be the greatest regular-season team in modern NL history.
Of the teams that have already clinched a playoff spot, who has the most left to play for in the final weeks?
Doolittle: Well, this is really a choice between the Braves and the Mets. And I guess I would say the Mets have more to play for. For the Braves, they have a couple of things going for them that lighten the pressure load. First, they are the defending champions. Their fan base is as happy as it’s ever going to get. Second, most of the roster has a fresh memory of navigating all the way through the playoffs and winning it, despite not having a particularly strong playoff seed. Of course, that was a different format, but I don’t think the Braves are going to be fazed if they end up as a wild-card team.
On the other hand, for much of the summer, this felt like “one of those years” for the Mets, when everything just seemed to be falling in place on the way to a banner season in team history. While the Mets haven’t exactly fallen apart, to go all the way through that and end up as a wild-card team — and not have a division title to show for it — would just seem to me to be a bit of a letdown.
Olney: The Braves and Mets — Atlanta seems to have a legit shot at becoming the first team in more than 20 years to win back-to-back titles, but playing that first round would be a burden for a club that is already kind of banged up right now, with the injuries to Ronald Acuna Jr., Spencer Strider et al. And as for the Mets, at a time of the year when they would likely prefer to limit the innings of Max Scherzer and deGrom, having to roll them out in a wild-card round would be taxing.
Passan: The right answer is Braves and Mets for all the reasons outlined above. But let’s not forget Seattle. If the Mariners snag the top wild-card spot in the AL, they’ll guarantee their first home playoff game in 21 years. If they finish in the second or third slot, they’ll head on the road for all three games and need to advance to bring playoff baseball back to T-Mobile Park, one of the most beloved — and loud — stadiums in baseball.
Schoenfield: I’ll be curious to see how Dodgers manager Dave Roberts works his bullpen after he announced the other day that Craig Kimbrel will no longer be the closer. He said it will be closer by committee, but this final stretch will be an indicator as to exactly what that means and who might be in line to get those final three outs. Evan Phillips has been the team’s best reliever, but he’s also been so valuable in a setup role and has little ninth-inning experience with just three career saves. The Dodgers are the best team in the majors, but with one glaring weakness that will remain a question heading into the postseason.
Which individual stat performances not involving Aaron Judge or Albert Pujols are you watching closest the rest of the way?
Doolittle: This question is not fair because I’m only watching Judge and Pujols for the most part on the stats front. How can you not? And not for the obvious home run chases, but because there are other cool things in play. For one thing, Pujols is getting very close to overtaking Babe Ruth on the all-time RBI list. I mean, that’s amazing. (Though, because the statistic wasn’t recognized by baseball until 1920, many of Ruth’s aren’t officially counted, leaving Pujols recognized as No. 2 on the all-time list, even though he technically trails Ruth by six RBIs.)
Beyond that, I have been anxiously following the injury news regarding Patrick Corbin and his ailing back. It sounds like he should be back in the Washington Nationals’ rotation soon, so that he can continue his quest to lose 20 games. He has been stuck at 18 for a while now. I know it’s perverse, and I truly wish no ill on Corbin. I just have a thing for little historical oddities like that. No one has done it since Mike Maroth in 2003.
Olney: I’m going to cheat on my answer a little bit, because it does actually involve Judge — the AL batting title could be the difference between him winning the Triple Crown or not. If Xander Bogaerts wins it, that will nicely frame his foray into free agency; if Luis Arraez pulls it out, what a cool accomplishment in a race with other great players.
Passan: I want to see Shohei Ohtani‘s final stat lines — and whether his 2022 performance actually exceeds that of 2021, when he was the runaway AL MVP. The easy answer is: probably. He’s nearly the same offensive player and is significantly better on the mound. The fact that Judge is putting up an all-time-great season which could be capped by a pair of historic moments, and that there’s actually a pretty good argument in Ohtani’s favor, would seem to suggest that the only thing that should separate Ohtani from the MVP as long as he’s in the midst of his prime is something truly extraordinary.
Schoenfield: Justin Verlander‘s ERA. He’s at 1.82 with one start remaining for the Houston Astros. Not including the shortened 2020 season, only 11 pitchers have finished with a sub-2.00 ERA in the wild-card era (since 1995). But only two of those have come in the AL: Pedro Martinez’s 1.74 for the Boston Red Sox in 2000 and Blake Snell’s 1.89 in 2018 for the Tampa Bay Rays. If Verlander tosses eight scoreless innings (right now, his start might be Friday against the Rays), he would finish with an ERA of 1.737, which would edge him past Martinez’s 1.742.
OK, we couldn’t get through this without one Judge question … Will he win the Triple Crown or not?
Doolittle: Triple crown? What about the double triple crown? Or more accurately, what about the quintuple crown? Or even the sextuple crown? Yes, Judge has a chance to become the first hitter since Miguel Cabrera to win the traditional Triple Crown, and that would be very cool. But Judge also has a chance to win the sabermetrics triple crown, leading the league in all three slash categories. Nobody has won both the traditional and the sabermetric triple crown since Carl Yastrzemski in 1967. It has happened only a handful of times in baseball history.
And then you can even tack on a sixth category, runs scored, which Judge is going to win anyway. You might even say Judge would become the first person to win the double triple crown, because back when Yaz did it, no one knew what the hell a sabermetric triple crown was. Anyway, the answer to your question is yes, he’s going to win all the things.
Olney: No, I don’t think he will. In spite of manager Aaron Boone’s statement to the contrary, I do think he’s wearing down a bit from the scrutiny of the home run chase — and after he breaks the record (assuming he breaks the record), I think there will be a bit of an exhale from him. We’ve seen that from other stars after passing milestones. But context is important: I’m the idiot who said at midseason he wouldn’t get to 60 homers.
Passan: Yes. Not because he matches up better with his opponents or because Bogaerts and Arraez, his two batting-average foes, have some discernible advantage. If we’ve learned anything this year, it’s very simple: Don’t bet against Aaron Judge.
Schoenfield: Unfortunately, I’ll say no. It’s a toss-up at the moment between Judge, Bogaerts and Arraez for the batting title, which basically gives Judge a one-in-three chance, meaning the odds are against him.
And finally, what is one under-the-radar theme fans should be paying more attention to in the final games of the regular season?
Doolittle: The rules are changing, so fans who really love baseball the way that it is right now should be storing as many of these moments to come in their memory banks as they can. If you love batters stepping out of the box and adjusting their gear, or pitchers taking a half a minute between pitches, you better get your fill now. And if you love a second baseman standing in shallow right field, you better get to the ballpark and snap a few pictures. Because these things are going away.
Olney: Watch for the team that finishes strongly, because as the Braves showed us last year, a group of players rolling into the postseason can ride that hot streak right into the World Series. My No. 1 candidate: the Cleveland Guardians, who could be baseball’s version of a No. 10 seed advancing to the Final Four. They are playing well and have such a unique style with strong pitching and hitters who put the ball in play. They could never be the best regular-season team because of the lack of power, but in a few postseason rounds? Maybe.
Passan: That sound you hear … is the bullpen door swinging open. The playoffs have turned into a relief parade, and while an excellent bullpen doesn’t necessarily foretell a team’s success, here’s a stat worth chewing on: The top seven bullpen ERAs belong to teams that either have already secured a postseason berth or are current wild-card contenders: Astros, Dodgers, Braves, New York Yankees, Guardians, Mariners, Rays. And with every out in October more meaningful and every situation with increasing leverage, bullpen ball is coming.
Schoenfield: Has anybody mentioned the NL wild-card race? Because, umm, the Padres and Phillies haven’t exactly locked up those final two spots over the Brewers.
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MLB September predictions: From best record to playoff races and more
Published
3 hours agoon
September 4, 2025By
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Welcome to September! Five months into Major League Baseball’s 2025 season, a number of things seem to be settled — from a few divisions to some award races — but plenty of intrigue remains entering the homestretch.
Which of the current contenders will reach the playoffs? How will the closer division races play out? Which teams will secure first-round byes? And how many games will the Colorado Rockies lose?!
To discuss what the final month of the regular season might bring, we asked 16 ESPN baseball experts some of the game’s biggest questions, covering September and beyond, and to explain their answers. We also asked them to make bold predictions about what will happen over the final stretch.
Let’s get into it.
Which team will finish with the best record in baseball?
Milwaukee Brewers: 14
Detroit Tigers: 1
Los Angeles Dodgers: 1
What makes the Brewers the favorite to secure the majors’ best record? Besides the buffer the Brewers have built as we enter the final month of the regular season, there’s just nothing to suggest a falloff. They are on track to win about 100 games and their run differential supports that pace. The remaining schedule is friendly. And Milwaukee’s production has come from every position and category. It’s just a really complete team. — Bradford Doolittle
How many of the current 12 teams projected for the playoffs will be in the postseason field?
All 12: 15
11: 1
You have the Royals ousting the Mariners from the playoff field. Why do you think that will happen? The Kansas City Royals will make the playoffs. Crazy? Not so. They’ve played great in July and August. Vinnie Pasquantino is mashing home runs, Bobby Witt Jr. is red hot and the players they added at the trade deadline have chipped in to make this a good offense. The Royals also have a pretty easy schedule the rest of the way. But which team can they catch?
It might hinge on a three-game series at home against Seattle in mid-September. The Mariners have a recent history of falling just short of the postseason — including last year, when the Royals clinched a wild-card spot with 86 wins and the Mariners won 85 (the Mariners blew an 8-0 lead against Kansas City in June, which loomed large at the end of the season). Seattle has struggled on the road, so the aforementioned series can catapult the Royals back into the postseason. — David Schoenfield
Who will be the No. 1 seed in the AL: Toronto or Detroit?
Detroit Tigers: 14
Toronto Blue Jays: 2
The Tigers were the overwhelming choice. Why did you take them? For me, this was mostly a schedule play. The top seed, based on the standings, is likely to be the Tigers or the Blue Jays, with the Boston Red Sox, New York Yankees, Houston Astros and Seattle Mariners all within plausible striking distance. Toronto doesn’t have an easy series left. Detroit’s schedule isn’t nearly as rigorous. In a race this close, with teams this close in talent and production, little things like schedule luck often determine the outcome. — Jeff Passan
You were one of two voters to pick the Blue Jays. Why do you think they top Detroit? The Tigers are a wonderful story, but not so much since the All-Star break, as they have played .500 ball, struggled to score runs and their ERA is among the bottom 10 in baseball. The Blue Jays are peaking at the right time, scoring plenty of runs, and Max Scherzer and Shane Bieber make the rotation formidable. Frankly, all three AL East contenders are better than the current Tigers, and it should show in the final standings. — Eric Karabell
Assuming the Brewers get one, who will get the second bye in the NL?
Los Angeles Dodgers: 9
Philadelphia Phillies: 5
San Diego Padres: 2
Despite dealing with star players slumping and a mountain of injuries this season, the Dodgers are still the slight favorites for the No. 2 seed in a stacked NL. Explain why. Because those are the very reasons why the Dodgers firmly believe their best baseball is still ahead of them. Their bullpen will soon be as close to whole as it has been all season. The same can be said about the lineup. The rotation already is, and the four-man group they’ll put together in October will be scary if the starters remain healthy.
That’s a big “if,” considering the pitching ailments that have plagued them the last couple years. But at the end of the day, the Dodgers possess the most depth and talent in the sport. They feel as if they’re on the verge of truly showcasing it. — Alden Gonzalez
The Phillies also received a fair number of votes. What makes them your pick? The Phillies seem to be flying under the radar for a team that has spent most of the season on a 95-win pace. Maybe it’s the Zack Wheeler injury, maybe it’s their struggles against the New York Mets — or maybe it’s just that this is about what we’ve grown accustomed to seeing from Philly over the past few seasons.
But there is plenty to like here over the final month and into October as well. Even without Wheeler, the Phillies have the best Game 1 starter of any NL contender in Cristopher Sanchez. Kyle Schwarber has a real shot at Ryan Howard’s franchise home run record (58). They acquired the best reliever to move at the deadline in Jhoan Duran and filled their biggest hole by trading for outfielder Harrison Bader. Oh, and they currently hold that second spot in the NL — with a 1 1/2 game cushion over the Dodgers. — Dan Mullen
Will the Dodgers or Padres win the NL West?
Los Angeles Dodgers: 13
San Diego Padres: 3
The Dodgers were our voters’ overwhelming favorite to win the division. Why — and how — do you think San Diego can overtake L.A.? More than any other team, I think the Dodgers look at their seasons from 30,000 feet, rather than succumbing to the concerns of the moment. They demonstrate this every year with their handling of pitching injuries — they essentially rest veteran starters through long stretches of the season, rather than push them in May and June, in order to do what they can to ensure that the players will be relatively fresh in October. This is why we’ve seen such a deliberate ramp-up with Shohei Ohtani.
That’s why I think the Padres will wind up winning the division. They bolstered their bullpen with Mason Miller at the trade deadline, and since then, it feels like they’ve been playing a series of Game 7s. And, let’s face it, San Diego is all-in in trying to win right now, with its top-heavy roster and the likes of Dylan Cease and Michael King headed for free agency in the fall. The Dodgers, on the other hand, won’t go to the whip in September in the same way. No matter how their own division plays out, they’ll make the playoffs and have a shot to repeat as World Series winners, while it feels as if San Diego is going to go all-out down the stretch to win the NL West.
Different pressures, different styles, different context. — Buster Olney
Who will win the AL West?
Houston Astros: 8
Seattle Mariners: 8
Make the case for the Astros: Picking Houston to win the West isn’t going out on much of a limb: They’re currently in first place, just got slugger Yordan Alvarez back from injury and simply have more pedigree than Seattle. The Mariners have a slightly easier schedule the rest of the way but their road woes are for real — and will likely prevent them from going on an extended run. Picking against the Astros would be the headline-scratching move. They’re the division champ once again. — Jesse Rogers
Make the case for the Mariners: The Mariners aren’t playing their best baseball, but they are healthy and within striking distance of the Astros for the division entering September. Their starting rotation is elite. The bullpen and offense should be better. Meanwhile, the Astros have recently gotten Yordan Alvarez back from injury, but they’re without Josh Hader and Isaac Paredes, among others. The division could come down to the three-game series between the two rivals in late September. — Jorge Castillo
How many games will the Rockies lose?
119: 1
118: 3
117: 1
116: 3
115: 3
114: 3
113: 1
112: 1
We got quite the breadth of answers to this question, but you were one of three to say 118 losses — our second-highest loss total. Why is that your prediction? The Rockies aren’t far removed from being on a modern record-setting pace for losses, and they’ve been especially awful against the current 12 teams in the playoff field: 9-50 (.153). They play 13 of their final 24 against that group, at a time when they’re increasingly leaning on younger and less experienced players. Their September isn’t going to be pretty. — Tristan Cockcroft
Make one bold prediction about the final stretch
Tim Kurkjian: Seattle Mariners catcher Cal Raleigh will finish the season with 60 home runs.
Matt Marrone: With most of the playoff field set — other than last-minute jockeying for seeds — all eyes will be on the Mariners over the final days of the season, as Raleigh sets a new AL home run record.
Kiley McDaniel: Between hitting and pitching, Shohei Ohtani catches Raleigh in total WAR.
Passan: Athletics first baseman Nick Kurtz will finish in the top five of AL MVP voting.
Karabell: The Phillies call up top pitching prospect Andrew Painter on Sept. 7 and he goes 3-0 with a 1.50 ERA.
Mullen: Nolan McLean will be the NL’s best pitcher not named Paul Skenes over the final month and take the mound in October — as the Mets’ Game 1 playoff starter.
Paul Hembekides: Boston’s Garrett Crochet will overtake Detroit’s Tarik Skubal and win the AL Cy Young Award.
Schoenfield: The Red Sox will catch the Blue Jays and win the AL East.
Gonzalez: Actually, the Yankees will win the AL East.
Cockcroft: Not only do the Yankees overtake Toronto for the division title, but they also grab a first-round bye, even if they can’t quite catch the Tigers for the No. 1 seed.
Olney: The Yankees have such a soft schedule in the final weeks that they wind up with the second-best record in the AL … but because Toronto holds on to win the division, New York is the No. 4 seed and faces Boston in the wild-card round.
Tim Keown: The Padres, with the easiest remaining schedule in baseball, will go 7-0 against the Colorado Rockies in September to win the NL West and take the second first-round bye spot.
Castillo: The Mets will overtake the Phillies and win the NL East.
Doolittle: If we started the playoffs tomorrow, the bracket would look exactly the same as it will after we’ve played out the season.
Voters: Dan Mullen, Liz Finny, Paul Hembekides, Jeff Passan, Eric Karabell, Alden Gonzalez, David Schoenfield, Tim Kurkjian, Kiley McDaniel, Tim Keown, Jorge Castillo, Matt Marrone, Bradford Doolittle, Jesse Rogers, Tristan Cockcroft, Buster Olney
Sports
MLB trade deadline winners and losers — a month later
Published
3 hours agoon
September 4, 2025By
admin
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Bradford DoolittleSep 3, 2025, 07:00 AM ET
Close- MLB writer and analyst for ESPN.com
- Former NBA writer and analyst for ESPN.com
- Been with ESPN since 2013
The last Stock Watch of the regular season is here. Before the next one, we’ll know who the 2025 World Series champion is, and will be knee-deep in another Hot Stove season.
With the Milwaukee Brewers topping the watch for the second month in a row, let’s use that surprising fact to make a couple of observations about this year’s competition:
• Payroll matters but it’s still no excuse. The likely playoff bracket looks loaded with big markets and big spenders, but teams like the Brewers and Kansas City Royals kind of take away the excuses of everyone who bemoans baseball’s economic disparity. Not that we shouldn’t seek to even the field, but in the meantime, teams should still be trying to win.
• There’s a solid chance we might see a champion we’ve never seen before. There are just five remaining teams with a goose egg in the World Series championship column. One of them is the Brewers, whose odds for ending that drought are the highest in baseball. Two others are the San Diego Padres and Seattle Mariners, both likely playoff teams. Taken together, these three clubs have around a 28% shot at this year’s title. In other words, there’s better than a 1-in-4 chance that some long-suffering fan base will get to have a parade in a couple of months.
With the MLB trade deadline more than a month old, let’s take a look at the most recent fortunes of all 30 teams, with an eye on how their moves (or non-moves) have worked (or not worked) so far.
Win average: 98.7 (Last: 95.9, 1st)
In the playoffs: 100.0% (Last: 99.2%)
Champions: 18.3% (Last:11.3%)
Deadline aftermath: Milwaukee was quiet at the deadline and hasn’t gotten much from its additions. Backup catcher Danny Jansen hasn’t hit since arriving, while reliever Shelby Miller has been so-so in a mid-leverage role. Yet Milwaukee has baseball’s best record and run differential since deadline day. Sometimes you don’t mess with a good thing. Should the injury to closer Trevor Megill linger, you might argue Milwaukee should have been more aggressive in pursuit of a back-end reliever. First, we ought to wait for the Brewers’ bullpen to actually struggle, because Milwaukee always has an answer when it comes to filling roster holes.
Win average: 93.8 (Last: 92.7, 5th)
In the playoffs: 100.0% (Last: 96.8%)
Champions: 10.6% (Last: 7.8%)
Deadline aftermath: Dave Dombrowski went with quality over quantity at the deadline and it has paid off. Harrison Bader has mashed while playing mostly every day in center field. Jhoan Duran hasn’t been perfect, but he has been everything the Phillies could have hoped for, while changing the dynamic of the bullpen, now and looking ahead to October. It took Duran a month to move into a tie for the Phillies’ saves lead, a period during which he didn’t allow a walk or a homer. The additions continue even after the stinging loss of Zack Wheeler. Conceding nothing, Dombrowski also signed Walker Buehler on Sunday after Buehler was released by the Red Sox.
Win average: 93.3 (Last: 95.8, 2nd)
In the playoffs: 99.9% (Last: 99.4%)
Champions: 7.2% (Last: 13.6%)
Deadline aftermath: Chicago’s quiet deadline rankled pundits, and the reaction hasn’t softened given the struggles of the few additions the Cubs did make, and the ongoing distance between them and the Brewers in the National League Central. The Cubs might want to stop trading for infielders at the deadline. Last year, they picked up Isaac Paredes, who flailed as a Cub, then moved on and went back to his typical self this year with the Astros. This time, Willi Castro has gone from an above-average hitter with Minnesota to borderline unplayable with the Cubs, at least at the dish, as part of Chicago’s overall offensive slide.
Win average: 92.9 (Last: 95.8, 2nd)
In the playoffs: 99.9% (Last: 99.4%)
Champions: 10.6% (Last: 15.4%)
Deadline aftermath: Los Angeles’ deadline approach was more similar to a team straddling the add/subtract fence than what the Dodgers actually are: a talent-laden, mega-rich defending champ angling for a repeat. Alex Call has helped as an extra outfielder who plays against lefties, but reliever Brock Stewart has struggled. Mostly the Dodgers have leaned on improved pitching health over the past month. Their revived hurlers have kept the Dodgers in the elite tier. Over the remainder of the season, if L.A. can match its first-half hitting with its second-half pitching, the Dodgers will hit the postseason as the behemoth we always thought they were.
Win average: 92.9 (Last: 93.3, 4th)
In the playoffs: 100.0% (Last: 99.2%)
Champions: 11.3% (Last: 11.3%)
Deadline aftermath: The Tigers went heavy on pitching at the deadline with a particular focus on positive regression candidates. It has worked for the bullpen, where Kyle Finnegan in particular has looked like a different pitcher than he was for Washington. The returns on starters Charlie Morton and Chris Paddack have been mixed. Detroit has played middling ball over the past month, largely due to an offense that has fallen off a bit and went unaddressed in the trade market. The Tigers are fine in the American League Central race, but find themselves in a tight battle for a No. 1 seed with Toronto.
Win average: 91.7 (Last: 90.7, 6th)
In the playoffs: 99.4% (Last: 92.9%)
Champions: 7.7% (Last: 5.3%)
Deadline aftermath: A leaky bullpen has kept the Blue Jays from keeping their AL East rivals at bay, and, as we enter the final month, Toronto could end up with a No. 1 seed or could be a road team in the wild-card round. The deadline impact has been mixed. Shane Bieber looks like Shane Bieber, an undeniable boost. But on a relief staff that features a closer (Jeff Hoffman) with 29 saves and a below-replacement bWAR, the additions of Seranthony Dominguez and Louis Varland have yet to pay off. If Toronto’s bullpen picks up the pace, this is a complete team.
Win average: 90.6 (Last: 90.2, 7th)
In the playoffs: 99.4% (Last: 89.0%)
Champions: 4.0% (Last: 4.5%)
Deadline aftermath: The Padres overtook the Dodgers a couple of times in August, only to slip back behind their nemesis. A.J. Preller’s deadline haul has accomplished its primary objective, which was to shore up roster holes and raise San Diego’s floor. The exception to that description — the addition of Mason Miller to an already strong bullpen — looks very much like a ceiling raiser. The only quibble might be in the rotation, where those the Padres dealt (Ryan Bergert and Stephen Kolek) have together outpitched those Preller acquired (Nestor Cortes, JP Sears). But Freddy Fermin, acquired for Bergert and Kolek, stabilized the catcher position.
Win average: 90.5 (Last: 88.8, 11th)
In the playoffs: 98.9% (Last: 87.2%)
Champions: 10.6% (Last: 8.0%)
Deadline aftermath: The Yankees’ trajectory changed sharply over the second half of August, a month they exited as one of baseball’s hottest teams. Behind a reinvigorated offense and a steady rotation, New York is back in contention for the AL East crown, a No. 1 seed, the whole pinstriped ball of wax. But the deadline-infused bullpen needs to pull it together consistently, or Yankees fans will enter October in an even more heightened state of anxiety than usual. If not for the solid work done so far by ex-Pirate David Bednar, New York’s work bolstering the relief group might look even worse.
Win average: 89.7 (Last: 88.9, 10th)
In the playoffs: 97.9% (Last: 87.6%)
Champions: 6.7% (Last: 5.5%)
Deadline aftermath: Boston’s pitching staff additions of Steven Matz and Dustin May didn’t exactly scream “‘all-in!” for a team that by the end of July had positioned itself for a playoff run. May and earlier in-season addition Jordan Hicks haven’t had an impact, but Matz has been lights out in a surging bullpen. Boston continues to play well, and the promotion of rotation prospect Payton Tolle is a jolt of energy for that unit. The Red Sox needed a power bat, but those were in short supply. The bottom line is that Boston hasn’t lost any ground since we last convened.
Win average: 88.1 (Last: 89.5, 9th)
In the playoffs: 85.3% (Last: 88.0%)
Champions: 3.6% (Last: 6.1%)
Deadline aftermath: Whatever you thought about Houston’s attempt to bolster its offense at the deadline with the additions of Carlos Correa, Jesus Sanchez and Ramon Urias, it hasn’t had the desired effect. Houston had a losing August (13-15) while ranking 26th in net runs per game. Only the Guardians scored fewer runs. Each member of the incoming trio has performed close to projection, so you can’t blame them, and it’s likely that without them, things would be worse. Still, the Astros enter the stretch run in a more precarious position than they’ve been in a long time.
Win average: 86.7 (Last: 90.1, 8th)
In the playoffs: 88.2% (Last: 89.4%)
Champions: 5.2% (Last: 4.5%)
Deadline aftermath: The Mets enter September with one of baseball’s hottest offenses. They also have one of MLB’s coldest pitching staffs. Thus, we’ve seen many games like New York’s 10-8 win over Detroit on Labor Day. The Mets got five quality starts in August. That isn’t great, but if the bullpen is rolling … well, it’s not. The relievers went 2-for-7 in save opportunities. Deadline pickups Gregory Soto and Tyler Rogers have been fine, but the splash was supposed to come from Ryan Helsley, whose August ERA (9.31) was more like a belly flop. There’s a month to get this right before the playoffs.
Win average: 86.5 (Last: 86.8, 12th)
In the playoffs: 74.1% (Last: 70.4%)
Champions: 2.6% (Last: 3.4%)
Deadline aftermath: The process — acquiring Arizona’s corner infield of Josh Naylor and Eugenio Suarez — was deservedly lauded. The early results are mixed. At first base, Seattle’s OPS before Naylor’s Mariners debut was 0.708, mostly Rowdy Tellez and Donovan Solano. Since then, it’s 0.761. Good! At third base, the OPS was 0.664 before Suarez. It’s 0.659 since. Meh! Seattle has treaded water since the deadline splash, ranking 18th in runs, despite a huge month from Julio Rodriguez and Cal Raleigh‘s homer-fest. The Mariners need their big guns to get hot at the same time, because nothing, not even a playoff slot, is assured.
Win average: 83.6 (Last: 84.1, 13th)
In the playoffs: 28.7% (Last: 43.2%)
Champions: 1.1% (Last: 2.1%)
Deadline aftermath: Despite lackluster offense, Texas targeted pitching before the deadline, coming away with relievers Danny Coulombe and Phil Maton. The big prize was starter Merrill Kelly, who seemed like a luxury addition until the injury to Nathan Eovaldi. The Rangers have leaned on Kelly and he has responded. That hasn’t been the case for the relievers, and for most of August, the Texas bullpen prevented the club from really catching fire. Texas heated up lately, but now faces most if not all of September without Eovaldi, Corey Seager and Marcus Semien. Manager Bruce Bochy will need to be in Hall of Fame form.
Win average: 82.5 (Last: 80.9, 16th)
In the playoffs: 11.3% (Last: 12.5%)
Champions: 0.2% (Last: 0.1%)
Deadline aftermath: The Royals continue to undermine excuses from less aggressive clubs in baseball’s lower economic tiers. The threshold isn’t that high. Just try. Kansas City’s offense for most of the season was a hodgepodge of negative regression performers down from 2024, and glaring, gaping holes. The Royals, seven games under .500 near the end of June, added anyway, raising their floor with the likes of Adam Frazier, Randal Grichuk and Mike Yastrzemski. They also bolstered an injury-plagued rotation with Bergert and Kolek. End result: The Royals have plenty to play for during the stretch run. A playoff return remains in play.
Win average: 81.6 (Last: 82.3, 14th)
In the playoffs: 6.8% (Last: 12.3%)
Champions: 0.2% (Last: 0.4%)
Deadline aftermath: The Reds’ acquisition of starter Zack Littell struck me as odd and, frankly, it still does. He has been pretty good. But Cincinnati has plenty of “pretty good” when it comes to the rotation. The Reds have candidates for much better than that behind the pretty good. Anyway, the pickups for the lineup have been chef’s kiss good. Miguel Andujar has hit like peak-level Miguel Cabrera. Ke’Bryan Hayes has flashed his elite defense and paired it with a level of offense that adds up to a really good player. If the Reds don’t make the playoffs, it won’t be because of deadline deficiencies.
Win average: 81.6 (Last: 81.8, 15th)
In the playoffs: 4.8% (Last: 9.4%)
Champions: 0.1% (Last: 0.2%)
Deadline aftermath: The Giants went into soft unload mode around the deadline. They weren’t playing well, and while their probabilities made the playoffs possible, the trajectory wasn’t good. A month later, the Giants’ position hasn’t changed — they’re still a fringe playoff candidate — but some of their pickups have already contributed. Jose Butto has been very good out of the bullpen, and Drew Gilbert, while swinging at everything, has flashed some pop and is getting acclimated to the majors. The Giants are offering a glimpse of what they’ll be next season, and have given their fans reasons to watch the stretch run with interest.
Win average: 80.8 (Last: 80.3, 17th)
In the playoffs: 3.6% (Last: 10.2%)
Champions: 0.1% (Last: 0.4%)
Deadline aftermath: Once again, the Rays’ deadline was about setting themselves up for the next season while not totally raising the white flag on the current one. As you can see from the unchanged win projection, things have chugged along on the same track, though staying the course has come with dwindling playoff odds. The new catchers — Hunter Feduccia and Nick Fortes — have together hit less than a pre-universal-DH pitcher. But the various departures have created openings for Feduccia, Carson Williams and Everson Pereira, and that’s the general idea. A miracle wild-card berth is not, as yet, totally out of the question.
Win average: 79.4 (Last: 79.3, 19th)
In the playoffs: 0.9% (Last: 6.5%)
Champions: 0.0% (Last: 0.1%)
Deadline aftermath: Having Bieber around for Cleveland’s long shot postseason bid would be nice, but the judgment on the deal with Toronto is years off and pending the development of prospect Khal Stephen. Besides, Cleveland’s problem isn’t pitching. Despite finishing .500 in August, the Guardians enjoyed a clean sweep in the major hitting categories, finishing last in runs, average, OBP and slugging. Between the putrid attack and the losses of pitchers Luis L. Ortiz and Emmanuel Clase to indefinite leave, it’s amazing that Cleveland’s hopes remain slightly alive. That’s the beauty of this year’s AL. It’s hard to play yourself out of contention.
Win average: 78.9 (Last: 77.3, 21st)
In the playoffs: 0.5% (Last: 0.9%)
Champions: 0.0% (Last: 0.0%)
Deadline aftermath: You can argue whether the Twins or the Diamondbacks traded more right-now value at the deadline but it’s one of the two. For Arizona, the losses of Kelly, Naylor, Suarez, Miller and Grichuk have … helped? It’s hard to claim that Arizona has played better because of those departures, but the Snakes have played better. The Diamondbacks went 17-12 in August and were in the top 10 in both run scoring and run prevention. Suarez replacement Blaze Alexander has taken off on offense, while on the pitching side, the bullpen has gotten hot thanks to the work of off-the-radar types.
Win average: 78.1 (Last: 79.4, 18th)
In the playoffs: 0.4% (Last: 2.6%)
Champions: 0.0% (Last: 0.1%)
Deadline aftermath: The Cardinals followed a standard route last month, dealing free agents-to-be and forgoing short-term additions. The approach adheres to St. Louis’ plan to treat the 2025 season as a minor nuisance, no matter if the team on the field clings to fringe contention. The losses of those dealt, even closer Helsley, given how he has performed in New York, haven’t had any effect on the short-term performance. The Cardinals continue to plug along in the middle as they were, waiting for next season. In some ways, it might have been easier for their fans if the Cardinals had just politely bottomed out.
Win average: 75.8 (Last: 78.1, 20th)
In the playoffs: 0.0% (Last: 1.6%)
Champions: 0.0% (Last: 0.0%)
Deadline aftermath: The Marlins played it casual at the deadline rather than kicking the can down the road by dealing Sandy Alcantara and Edward Cabrera, for now anyway. So the rest of the season is about getting better and creating opportunity for young players like outfielder Jakob Marsee, who put up a huge August in the relative vacuum of a standard Marlins season. Unfortunately, one of the aspirants won’t be deadline pickup Ryan Gusto, who was torched over three Marlins starts before going down with a shoulder impingement. Hopefully in September we’ll see more prospects like Victor Mesa Jr. and Andrew Pintar.
Win average: 75.4 (Last: 76.0, 23rd)
In the playoffs: 0.0% (Last: 1.1%)
Champions: 0.0% (Last: 0.0%)
Deadline aftermath: The Angels’ soft add around the deadline has actually worked, to a degree, in that bullpen additions Andrew Chafin and Luis Garcia have been airtight. Thus a bottom-five bullpen has been middle of the pack since the end of July. But a 6.35 rotation ERA and an 0.665 OPS by the offense in August have rendered that development moot. The early returns on ex-Yankee Oswald Peraza haven’t been good, as not only has he struggled to keep his OPS over 0.500, but he gave up eight runs on the mound during a mop-up appearance. The Angels’ season appears headed nowhere.
Win average: 74.2 (Last: 69.5, 27th)
In the playoffs: 0.0% (Last: 0.0%)
Champions: 0.0% (Last: 0.0%)
Deadline aftermath: The A’s went 3-24 between May 6 and June 4, a month that sunk what looked like a possible wild-card candidacy. You don’t get to erase bad months from the record, but it’s worth considering that outside of that plunge, the Athletics are 10 games over .500. The splash at the deadline — trading Miller and getting elite prospect Leo De Vries in return — was a long-term play. Despite the short-term hit, the A’s had the fifth-best net runs per game figure in the majors during August and their relievers posted the best ERA in baseball. The Athletics are getting good.
Win average: 74.1 (Last: 72.4, 24th)
In the playoffs: 0.0% (Last: 0.0%)
Champions: 0.0% (Last: 0.0%)
Deadline aftermath: The Braves had a winning month after the deadline, but it did little to mitigate a titanically disappointing season in Cobb County. The injuries have continued, as have some pretty crucial underperformances, like that of starter Spencer Strider. Michael Harris II has been hot as a firecracker since the break, which has been encouraging, but this season has mostly been one of Atlanta becoming a frequent stop on the DFA merry-go-round. The only note you might offer about the deadline is that pending free agents Raisel Iglesias and Marcell Ozuna should have been moved. It’s been a rough season.
Win average: 73.8 (Last: 76.1, 22nd)
In the playoffs: 0.0% (Last: 1.3%)
Champions: 0.0% (Last: 0.0%)
Deadline aftermath: Unsurprisingly, the Twins have floundered since their aggressive offloading approach to the deadline. With this season lost, Minnesota’s short-term focus is on the young players it picked up during the flurry of activity. The initial results for James Outman, Alan Roden, Mick Abel and Taj Bradley have been subpar across the board, but it’s early days and that list just represents those who have reached the majors. In any event, when you look at the exploits of ex-Twins like Harrison Bader, Jhoan Duran and Carlos Correa on their new teams, you can’t say Minnesota hasn’t impacted the pennant races.
Win average: 72.3 (Last: 72.3, 25th)
In the playoffs: 0.0% (Last: 0.1%)
Champions: 0.0% (Last: 0.0%)
Deadline aftermath: The Orioles turned the page on a disappointing season at the deadline and added depth to their system in the process. The on-field results haven’t improved since the reshuffling, though the rotation had a nice run of outings. It’s all about next season. The Orioles’ August was a mixed bag in that regard. On the downside, Coby Mayo, Jackson Holliday and Colton Cowser struggled last month. Samuel Basallo and Dylan Beavers reached the majors, with Beavers in particular getting off to a good start. The Orioles won’t return to the postseason, but they can enter the offseason with positive momentum.
Win average: 71.6 (Last: 69.9, 26th)
In the playoffs: 0.0% (Last: 0.0%)
Champions: 0.0% (Last: 0.0%)
Deadline aftermath: With the Pirates’ focus, as ever, on the distant horizon, the remainder of Pittsburgh’s post-deadline roster has stayed competitive. The rotation remains the unit to watch, and August was not without interest for that group. Paul Skenes continues to build a Cy Young case, but for once, he’s not the biggest reason for excitement. That would be Bubba Chandler, technically a reliever for now, who has looked terrific over a pair of bulk outings. After eight scoreless frames to start his career, Chandler has a lifetime ERA even better than Skenes’. Hey, in Pittsburgh you get your kicks where you can.
Win average: 64.5 (Last: 64.5, 28th)
In the playoffs: 0.0% (Last: 0.0%)
Champions: 0.0% (Last: 0.0%)
Deadline aftermath: The Nationals’ never-ending rebuild feels stalled, perhaps even more so after another deadline of dealing veteran talent. Whether or not Washington got fair return in its deals is almost beside the point. When will it end? If the young foundational players were picking up momentum, it might feel different. But CJ Abrams, James Wood, Dylan Crews and Brady House are among those who have lagged since the All-Star break. If ever there was a franchise in need of a spark, it’s this one right now. The offense has been brutal, but the pitching, especially the rotation, has been even worse. Sigh.
Win average: 59.6 (Last: 62.1, 29th)
In the playoffs: 0.0% (Last: 0.0%)
Champions: 0.0% (Last: 0.0%)
Deadline aftermath: The White Sox were playing pretty well at the time of the deadline, but the month since has not been kind. Still, the record is neither here nor there, it’s more about individual performances right now. And through that prism, there is plenty to like about Chicago’s direction. Kyle Teel has been a well-rounded force at the plate. Colson Montgomery has displayed explosive power. There’s more, but you get the idea. The downer is the possible season-ending injury to Luis Robert Jr., whose combined slash over the past two seasons is .223/.288/.372. Maybe this is just what he is now.
Win average: 45.9 (Last: 44.3, 30th)
In the playoffs: 0.0% (Last: 0.0%)
Champions: 0.0% (Last: 0.0%)
Deadline aftermath: Colorado continues to lose games at a prodigious pace, but it’s a less frantic pace than earlier this season. Progress? Maybe not. During August, the Colorado rotation posted an ERA of 6.54 and allowed a .309/.381/.514 slash line. Before you start adjusting the rotation numbers for Coors Field, don’t bother. Those were the road numbers. The overall numbers can’t be published without a parental warning. One quest remains: Hunter Goodman‘s 2.7 bWAR places him third in Colorado history among primary catchers. The record is Chris Iannetta’s 3.2 in 2008. Setting any kind of positive record amid this mess would be something.
Sports
Cubs’ PCA sits again for ‘physical, mental break’
Published
3 hours agoon
September 4, 2025By
admin
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Jesse RogersSep 3, 2025, 07:42 PM ET
Close- Jesse joined ESPN Chicago in September 2009 and covers MLB for ESPN.com.
CHICAGO — Cubs center fielder Pete Crow-Armstrong will get his second consecutive game off Wednesday, with manager Craig Counsell saying he wants to give him a “physical and mental” break amid his struggles in the second half of the season.
Crow-Armstrong, 23, wasn’t in the starting lineup against the Braves on Wednesday after coming off the bench to play defense late in Tuesday’s game. The Cubs are off Thursday, giving Crow-Armstrong a full three days between starts.
“We’re giving him a real break,” Counsell said before Wednesday’s series finale against the Braves. “Just to give him a physical and mental break, and then going into the last 3½ weeks of the season, hopefully a little bit refreshed.”
Crow-Armstrong is hitting .212 with a .624 OPS since the All-Star break, but he has struggled even more over the past month, hitting .163 with only five extra-base hits and five walks to 29 strikeouts since Aug.1.
“I looked at this early in the [recent] road trip, thinking where could we get Pete a break,” Counsell said. “As the road trip continued, it became apparent that we should use this opportunity to give him a break.”
The last six games of the Cubs’ nine-game trip were played in spacious stadiums in San Francisco and Denver, where Crow-Armstrong covered a lot of ground in the outfield. He went 6-for-35 during the trip before getting Tuesday and Wednesday off.
“Hopefully it’s a reset for Pete,” Counsell said.
Super-utility player Willi Castro will start in Crow-Armstrong’s place in center against the Braves on Wednesday, and regular designated hitter Seiya Suzuki is starting right field in place of Kyle Tucker who left Tuesday’s game because of tightness in his left calf. Counsell said the team would have an update on Tucker’s status before Friday’s game against the Washington Nationals.
Newly acquired switch hitter Carlos Santana will get his first start with the Cubs, taking Suzuki’s place as the designated hitter.
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