The biggest regular-season series in a decade? Why Mets-Braves showdown could shake up October
The fact that there is a division title hanging in the balance as the New York Mets and Atlanta Braves meet this weekend might come as a surprise for anyone who was watching the National League East standings earlier this season. What was once a 10.5-game lead for New York in early June and still as large as seven games on Aug. 10 has turned into a down-to-the-wire battle, with both teams chasing 100 wins in one of the best division races of the wild-card era.
But while Mets fans are likely a tad stressed by this stretch run, their star first baseman begs to differ.
“This is fun — this is really, really fun, being in a race like this,” Pete Alonso said Tuesday after a Mets loss and Braves win briefly tied the teams for first place.
Luckily for baseball fans, the two teams square off for one final series this weekend in Atlanta that will start with New York a game up in the standings. Due to the unknown aftereffects of Hurricane Ian, the exact schedule could change, but an improved forecast makes it seem more likely they’ll play all three games this weekend.
Rain delayed or not, the series sets up as the biggest of the 2022 regular season, about as big as you can get in this new 12-team postseason world — and, arguably, the most important regular-season series since at least 2012 (more on that in a minute).
Watch: Mets-Braves on Sunday Night Baseball, 7 ET
Yes, both teams have clinched playoff spots, but given the ramifications of winning the division and receiving a first-round bye compared to having to use your best starters out of the gate in a best-of-three wild-card series — where anything can happen — both teams desperately want to win the division, and which one does will shape the shape the entire MLB postseason.
“The hope is to have a good series against New York this weekend,” Braves outfielder Ronald Acuña Jr. said Tuesday. “The division is on the line.”
One advantage for the Mets: They lead the season series 9-7, so they need to win only one of the three games to clinch the season series, which would give them the tiebreaker edge and the division title if the two teams finish with the same record (tiebreaker games have sadly been eliminated). Both teams have their rotations lined up, with Chris Bassitt, Jacob deGrom and Max Scherzer scheduled to face Max Fried, Kyle Wright and Charlie Morton, although the Braves will be without Rookie of the Year candidate Spencer Strider, who is on the injured list with a strained oblique. The Mets have also are calling up their top prospect, catcher Francisco Alvarez for the series.
Outside of eliminating the risk of having your season end three days into the playoffs, the biggest key in avoiding the wild-card series is what it does to your rotation for the next round — especially since there are fewer off days in this year’s postseason after the schedule was condensed because of the lockout. The best-of-five division series, for example, will be played over a potential six days rather than seven.
Here’s how the Braves playoff rotation lines up if they don’t win the division:
Friday, Oct. 7, WC Game 1: Max Fried
Saturday, Oct. 8, WC Game 2: Kyle Wright
Sunday, Oct. 9, WC Game 3: Charlie Morton
Then if they advance, in the division series:
Tuesday, Oct. 11, NLDS Game 1: Bryce Elder/Jake Odorizzi or Morton
Wednesday, Oct. 12, NLDS Game 2: Fried
Friday, Oct: 14, NLDS Game 3: Wright
Saturday, Oct. 15, NLDS Game 4: Morton or Elder/Odorizzi
Sunday, Oct. 16, NLDS Game 5: Game 1 starter
Now, the Braves are holding out hope that Strider can return in the postseason, although given the nature of oblique injuries, that feels a little ambitious for at least the first couple of rounds. But you can see the impact: If you have to play in the wild-card series, and are fortunate enough to move on, you’re going to end up using your No. 3 or 4 starter twice in the division series if it goes the distance. That’s an even bigger deal for Atlanta if Strider is sidelined and it’s the rookie Elder or the struggling veteran Odorizzi making that extra start instead of Fried.
The Mets have a deep rotation as well, but they would certainly prefer deGrom lined up to start twice in the division series:
Friday, Oct. 7, WC Game 1: Jacob deGrom
Saturday, Oct. 8, WC Game 2: Max Scherzer
Sunday, Oct. 9, WC Game 3: Chris Bassitt
Then in the division series:
Tuesday, Oct. 11, NLDS Game 1: Taijuan Walker/Carlos Carrasco or Bassitt
Wednesday, Oct. 12, NLDS Game 2: deGrom
Friday, Oct: 14, NLDS Game 3: Scherzer
Saturday, Oct. 15, NLDS Game 4: Bassitt or Walker/Carrasco
Sunday, Oct. 16, NLDS Game 5: Game 1 starter
The one caveat here is it’s possible the Game 2 starter could come back and start Game 5 on three days of rest. That’s rarely done these days, however, and even last postseason when Morton broke his leg in Game 1 of the World Series the Braves elected to give starts to Tucker Davidson and Dylan Lee rather than pitch anybody on short rest.
Playing in the Wild Card Series isn’t necessarily a sentence to an early exit. The Nationals won when it was a single game in 2019 — in which they used both Scherzer and Stephen Strasburg — and ended up going all the way. (It did help that the NLCS was a four-game sweep, giving their staff a few extra days of rest heading into the World Series.)
But there’s another incentive to avoiding the wild-card series: which side of the bracket the division runner-up will end up in. The division winner will be the No. 2 seed in the National League and play the St. Louis Cardinals or the third wild-card team (most likely the Philadelphia Phillies or Milwaukee Brewers) in the NLDS. The division runner-up gets the No. 4 seed, would have to play the San Diego Padres (the likely No. 5 seed) in the wild-card round — and then the 107-win (and counting) Los Angeles Dodgers in the NLDS, having just used their top two starters to get there in the first place.
Winning the division also delays starting the clock on the fatigue factor for your pitching staff. While you will hear some mention that the days off between the end of the regular season and the start of the division series can hurt a team — this year, that would be five days — there is no evidence that’s the case. But giving at least your top two starters one fewer start and some extra days off? That sounds like a very good thing in today’s max-effort pitching world.
Look at what happened to the Dodgers last season: They lost that epic NL West race to the San Francisco Giants and started Scherzer in the wild-card game, which meant he couldn’t start again until Game 3 of the NLDS against San Francisco. With the Dodgers down 2-1 in the series, Walker Buehler started Game 4 on short rest and then they used Julio Urias and Scherzer in relief in Game 5.
You can debate some of Dave Roberts’ choices there, but after starting Game 2 of the NLCS against the Braves (two days after his relief appearance) and lasting just 4⅓ innings in a game the Dodgers lost, Scherzer came up with a dead arm and was unable to start Game 6 of the series — which Buehler started again on short rest and pitched poorly as the Dodgers lost and went home.
Bottom line: The less scrambling you have to do with your staff, the better — and, again, this year’s schedule makes it more difficult to do what the Dodgers tried to do last year anyway, which was use their three healthy starters and bullpen their way through the fourth spot in the rotation (or use somebody on short rest).
Which team would benefit more from the bye week, allowing some extra rest for their pitchers? I’d probably say the Mets, given the health issues deGrom and Scherzer have had this season. Plus, deGrom is coming off his worst start since 2019 with the lowly A’s tagging him for five runs in four innings. This is an extremely small sample, but note his ERAs this season:
4 days of rest: 4.15 (three starts)
5 days of rest: 3.52 (four starts)
6+ days of rest: 1.00 (three starts)
Scherzer has good ERAs at all three levels, but check out his OPS and strikeout-to-walk ratio:
4 days of rest: .602 OPS, 4.36 SO-to-BB
5 days of rest: .533 OPS, 8.33 SO-to-BB
6+ days of rest: .460 OPS, 33.0 SO-to-BB
Seems like getting them a little extra rest could be a big deal in how far the Mets go.
So we’re set up for a big series. Now back to my statement of the biggest regular-season series in a decade. I went back to the start of the wild-card game era in 2012 and checked out the tightest division races each full season (no, wild-card races don’t count) and the records heading into the final series those teams played against each other. Here are the closest comparisons.
2022 NL East
New York: 98-58
Atlanta: 97-59
Date: Sept. 30-Oct. 2
2021 NL West
San Francisco: 85-49
Los Angeles: 85-49
Date: Sept. 3-5
An epic race, but the final matchup came early in September — the two didn’t play each other in their final 25 games.
2018 NL Central
Chicago: 83-59
Milwaukee: 82-62
Date: Sept. 10-12
This was the season we ended with two division ties, as the Dodgers and Rockies both finished 91-71 in the NL West. The Brewers won their final eight games (including the tiebreaker) to finally catch the Cubs, but the two clubs last played Sept. 10-12.
2016 AL East
Boston: 85-64
Baltimore: 82-67
Date: Sept. 19-22
The Red Sox were three up on the Orioles when they started a four-game series on Sept. 19. The Red Sox took all four to essentially wrap up the division.
2015 NL Central
St. Louis: 98-58
Pittsburgh: 95-61
Date: Sept. 28-30
St. Louis and Pittsburgh did meet in the next-to-last series of the season. The Cardinals won the first game and then after a rainout they split a doubleheader, clinching the division for St. Louis.
2014 AL Central
Detroit: 84-68
Kansas City: 83-69
Date: Sept. 19-21
The Tigers took the first two games of a three-game series and held on to win the division by one game.
2013 NL Central
Pittsburgh: 81-58
St. Louis: 80-60
Date: Sept. 6-8
The Cardinals swept a three-game series and never relinquished the lead, winning the division by three games.
2012 AL West
Texas: 93-66
Oakland: 91-68
Date: Oct. 1-3
Finally, a series to rival this Mets-Braves matchup — although the two clubs weren’t quite as strong. They met in Oakland for the final series of the season and the A’s took all three games to capture the division.
So there you have it. This Mets-Braves series tracks as the important regular-season series since at least 2012 — and since these teams are better than the A’s and Rangers, it feels even bigger than that one, even if both teams have another series to finish the season.
There are big names and big stars slated to pitch. It involves two of the top franchises in the sport. The implications also go beyond just New York and Atlanta — like, to Los Angeles, where the Dodgers probably aren’t too anxious to face deGrom and Scherzer in a best-of-five series. Alonso is ready. I can’t wait to see how Acuna and Austin Riley and Michael Harris II perform in these big moments. This is baseball at its regular-season best.
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Bill Connelly
Repeat after me: Most teams will lose another game.
We’re just close enough to the finish line of the regular season that we start to think things are locked into place. Oklahoma is the “first one out” in the College Football Playoff rankings — the Sooners are in trouble! Texas is 10th — the Longhorns are in! Five teams have one conference loss atop the ACC and American Conference; therefore, we’re guaranteed huge logjams with gross tiebreakers.
Maybe. But most teams will lose another game. There’s about a 1-in-3 chance that we end up with even a three-way tie of 7-1 teams atop the American, 1-in-5 in the ACC. Of the teams right on the borderline of the playoff — say, the ones ranked eighth through 14th — only one has greater than a 54% chance of winning out between now and Championship Weekend, and there’s only about a 0.1% chance they all do.
There’s still a lot of football to be played, in other words. Week 12 gives us a couple of games pitting new guard versus old guard in SEC country, plus high-leverage contests in Pittsburgh, New Orleans and Harrisonburg, Virginia. Here’s everything you need to follow on a big-as-ever mid-November Saturday.
All times Eastern, all games on Saturday unless otherwise noted.
New SEC vs. Old SEC
Well, this is convenient scheduling. The SEC’s two sparkly, new, big-brand programs are both on the borderline of a possible playoff bid, and both need to come up big on the road against the programs that have basically served as the league’s final bosses for the past 16 years. The storylines sometimes write themselves.
No. 10 Texas at No. 5 Georgia (7:30 p.m., ABC)
For all of the ups and downs of this season — Arch Manning‘s repeated struggles, the whiplash combination of a loss to Florida and a blowout of Oklahoma — the Longhorns are still in solid playoff shape, but they’ll need to go at least 2-1 (and maybe 3-0) against Georgia, Arkansas and Texas A&M.
With the season on the line two weeks ago against Vanderbilt, coach Steve Sarkisian took Texas’ offense back to basics in a very Sarkisian way, with lots of eye candy and quick passes to the perimeter. Manning completed 25 of 33 passes for 328 yards and 3 touchdowns — great stats considering he didn’t complete a pass thrown more than 17 yards downfield.
Manning completed 11 passes at or behind the line of scrimmage, and Texas gained 172 yards, a level of risk-free explosiveness every offense craves. The Longhorns might generate success with this type of passing against Georgia as well. The Bulldogs are elite in run defense and prevent big plays really well, but they create almost no negative plays and force almost no turnovers. They trust their ability to adapt in-game and force the issue when they have to, but on passes thrown within 5 yards of the line of scrimmage, they rank 90th in yards allowed per attempt (5.7). If the Dawgs struggle in this regard, it will negate their advantages against a poor Texas running game, and they’ll allow Manning to avoid the passing downs in which he has often struggled.
Actually, expect a lot of short, crisp passes no matter who has the ball. That has also been Georgia’s approach.
In terms of risk-free explosiveness, Zachariah Branch has been one of the better players in the SEC. Of his 53 receptions, 31 have been caught behind the line, but he is averaging 8.3 yards after the catch, with eight receptions of 20-plus yards. He tests a defense’s discipline, and the running game has improved enough to give the Dawgs many ways to stay on schedule. Texas’ defense is the best Georgia has seen. The Horns are dynamite against the run, and starting safeties Michael Taaffe and Jelani McDonald are expected to play after recent injuries.
Current line: UGA -5.5 | SP+ projection: UGA by 4.4 | FPI projection: UGA by 2.3
No. 11 Oklahoma at No. 4 Alabama (3:30 p.m., ABC)
A year ago, Oklahoma manhandled a two-loss Alabama team, knocking the Crimson Tide from playoff contention with a 24-3 upset. OU now heads to Tuscaloosa for just the second time (and first time as an SEC member), cast as the two-loss team that probably can’t afford a blowout road loss.
In their first must-win, two weeks ago in Knoxville, the Sooners treaded water for a half, getting dominated statistically but surviving on turnovers, then played superior second-half ball in a 33-27 win over Tennessee. They probably can’t afford another poor first half, and that might be a problem because Alabama is one of the best first-half teams in the country. The Crimson Tide can’t always apply the dagger — they almost let Georgia, Missouri and South Carolina all complete second-half comeback wins — but their scoring margin is plus-108 before halftime (and minus-3 in the third quarter).
Bama has averaged just 4.9 yards per play and a decent 23.4 points per game against SP+ top-30 defenses. Ranked third, OU’s defense is by far the best the Tide have faced, though it might not be at full strength if end R Mason Thomas and tackle Jayden Jackson, both listed as questionable, can’t go.
OU leads the nation in rushing success rate* allowed, while Bama’s run game ranks 109th. Ty Simpson and the Tide will have to succeed through the air, but the Sooners also rank ninth in passing success rate allowed. If the Tide get to even 23 points, they should be thrilled.
(* Success rate: How frequently an offense is gaining 50% of necessary yardage on first down, 70% on second and 100% on third or fourth.)
Can OU get to 23, then? Bama has shown some vulnerability against the run, and the Sooners’ run game has perked up of late, with 239-pound sophomore running back Xavier Robinson grinding out 224 yards in the past two games. With quarterback John Mateer using his legs as well, OU’s offense has been excellent in the red zone, and the Sooners might get away with creating fewer scoring chances. Still, in his past four games, Mateer has averaged just 5.0 yards per dropback. That probably won’t get it done if you’re hunting for a huge road win.
Current line: Bama -6.5 | SP+ projection: Bama by 1.3 | FPI projection: Bama by 5.8
The last big test for Notre Dame
No. 9 Notre Dame at No. 22 Pitt (noon, ABC)
In 2017, Miami was second in the nation and two wins from a CFP berth. But freshman Kenny Pickett produced three touchdowns (one passing, two rushing), and unranked Pitt shocked the Hurricanes 24-14. Miami lost out from there.
In 2003, Virginia Tech, ranked fifth, visited Heinz Field, having just blown out No. 2 Miami. Rod Rutherford threw two touchdown passes (one to some guy named Larry Fitzgerald) and rushed for another, and No. 25 Pitt beat the Hokies 31-28. Tech went on to lose four of five.
Once per decade, Pitt absolutely ruins a top team’s season at home. It hasn’t happened in the 2020s, but maybe we’re due? Notre Dame visits Pitt, needing three more wins to secure another CFP bid, but considering the last two are against Syracuse (98% win probability, per SP+) and Stanford (97%), this is the big one.
After losing to Miami and Texas A&M to start the season, the Fighting Irish have won seven straight games by an average of 41-14. But aside from USC, Pitt is the best team they’ve played in this span. That’s an incredible thing to say if you watched the Panthers in September.
Pitt began the year 2-2, but somehow, coach Pat Narduzzi saved the season by installing a freshman quarterback. Mason Heintschel has charged straight into the top 25 in my power-conference quarterback rankings; he leaves the pocket quite a bit and fires the ball to a trio of explosive receivers in Kenny Johnson, Raphael Williams Jr. and Cataurus Hicks. Heintschel’s Panthers have won five straight, and the last one came without injured star running back Desmond Reid. Reid is expected to play Saturday, and if he can find success between the tackles against a banged-up Notre Dame front, that would help the freshman significantly.
Pitt’s defense is uniquely aggressive. The Panthers are second nationally in yards allowed per carry, they’re seventh in pressure rate, and they force quarterbacks to make big throws that college passers often can’t make. (They could also be healthier than they’ve been in a while if linebacker Rasheem Biles and safety Cruce Brookins return as expected.) That will put a lot on the shoulders of Notre Dame quarterback CJ Carr. But Carr might be OK with that.
If he were a bit more mobile, Carr’s radar chart would be a nearly perfect circle. The redshirt freshman is seventh on my QBs list and 10th in Total QBR, and the Irish are far more capable of creating big-pass plays this year because of Carr and speedy targets such as Malachi Fields and Will Pauling. Pitt might be more capable than most of bottling up surging running back Jeremiyah Love, but that doesn’t mean Carr can’t beat them.
Current line: Irish -12.5 (up from -10.5 on Sunday) | SP+ projection: Irish by 7.2 | FPI projection: Irish by 8.1
Chaos likely continues in the ACC
The ACC is a beautiful mess. Five teams have one conference loss — Georgia Tech, Virginia, Pitt, SMU and Duke — and there are only two remaining head-to-heads among them. But those head-to-heads mean that, at most, three teams can finish at 7-1: This week’s Virginia-Duke winner (about a 72% chance, per SP+), next week’s Georgia Tech-Pitt winner (currently 65%) and SMU (40%).
There’s only a 19% chance that three teams reach 7-1 and a 45% chance that two do. The latter would be clean and easy, but that doesn’t appear to be something this conference believes in.
No. 19 Virginia at Duke (3:30 p.m., ESPN2)
Duke is the ACC’s doom scenario. The Blue Devils went 1-3 in nonconference play with losses at Tulane and UConn — why the hell are you playing at both Tulane and UConn?? — but they’re 4-1 in the ACC, and the projected favorites in each remaining game. If they win the league, would they get into the CFP over a second Group of 5 team like a hypothetical 12-1 James Madison?
Duke’s defense has imploded in Manny Diaz’s second season, but the offense has scored at least 34 points in five of its past six games. Quarterback Darian Mensah and the Blue Devils will score Saturday. Will Virginia? Quarterback Chandler Morris left the Wake Forest loss because of a head/neck injury, but the team seems optimistic that he’ll be ready to play.
The Cavaliers’ offense has underachieved against projections by double digits in three of the past four games, though, and Morris was healthy for most of that stretch. That’s a bad sign, but if UVA can keep it close in the second half, the advantage shifts: The Hoos are 4-2 in one-score finishes, while Duke is 1-2.
Current line: Duke -4.5 (down from -6.5) | SP+ projection: Duke by 1.6 | FPI projection: Duke by 2.5
No. 16 Georgia Tech at Boston College (3:30 p.m., ACCN)
Per SP+, the Boston College offense is its worst in three years, and the Eagles’ defense is their worst since 1978. Georgia Tech has its own defensive issues, but nothing like that. Meanwhile, the Yellow Jackets are coming off a bye week, in which the gutty Haynes King — maybe the hottest QB in the country this side of Julian Sayin — got a much-needed Saturday off from getting hit repeatedly.
Assuming the Jackets survive this one, they’ll face two enormous home games to finish the regular season. First, they’ll play Pitt with a potential ACC championship game bid on the line; then they’ll play Georgia in a revenge attempt that coach Brent Key has been dreaming about for a year. This will be fun.
Current line: Tech -16.5 | SP+ projection: Tech by 18.6 | FPI projection: Tech by 14.3
It’s all happening in Tier 4
For the past few weeks, I’ve been referencing playoff tiers. The three teams in Tier 1 are all but certain to reach the CFP, while five teams in Tier 2 average around an 86% chance, and each of the three in Tier 3 is around 50-50.
Tier 4, meanwhile, is the Thunderdome, with 10 or 11 teams fighting for what might be two bids at most. A large portion of Tier 4 is involved in the ACC title race, but others have work to do in Week 12.
No. 21 Iowa at No. 17 USC (3:30 p.m., BTN)
Iowa has lost three games, including two against top-10 opponents, by 10 combined points. I appreciate that the CFP committee still ranks the Hawkeyes, even though the AP has been underrating them all season, and their much-improved run game could do serious damage against a USC defense that ranks 126th in rushing success rate allowed. The Trojans are solid against the pass, but that doesn’t really matter in an Iowa game.
When USC has the ball, it’s elite versus elite. The Trojans rank fourth in points per drive, and Iowa’s defense is seventh. The Hawkeyes have played against two top-15 offenses (per SP+) and have allowed 31 total points; USC played against two top-15 defenses and scored 55. What happens in this one? And what role might the weather play? The forecast suggests early-afternoon downpours (and maybe some thunder) in L.A. It’s rude of the Hawkeyes to bring their weather with them.
Current line: USC -6.5 | SP+ projection: USC by 4.5 | FPI projection: USC by 7.5
Clemson at No. 20 Louisville (Friday, 7:30 p.m., ESPN)
Clemson might — might — finally be figuring things out. The Tigers have averaged 37 points per game in Cade Klubnik‘s past four starts, and after getting torched by SMU and Duke, the defense showed up and shut down Florida State last week.
Clemson’s defensive front isn’t as disruptive as expected, but it might be good enough to give Louisville problems. Though running back injuries have been problematic for the Cardinals, the fact that they’ve gained zero or fewer yards on 34.0% of their snaps this year (106th nationally) is even more damaging. If quarterback Miller Moss doesn’t have time in the pocket, Louisville might be eliminated from the ACC and CFP hunts by Saturday morning.
Current line: Louisville -2.5 | SP+ projection: Louisville by 5.9 | FPI projection: Louisville by 1.2
No. 13 Utah at Baylor (7 p.m., ESPN2)
Baylor’s defense has held the Bears back all season, allowing 37 points per game in four losses. But it’s coming off by far its best performance of the season in a 30-3 blowout of UCF, and it generally prevents big plays pretty well.
Of course, Utah doesn’t make big plays and still blows out teams. The Utes’ seven wins have come by an average of 36 points, and they’ve lost only to the Big 12’s two highest-ranked teams. Quarterback Devon Dampier pilots a devastatingly efficient attack, and Utah might have the best defense Baylor’s Sawyer Robertson has seen all year.
Current line: Utah -7.5 | SP+ projection: Utah by 13.5 | FPI projection: Utah by 8.7
No. 18 Michigan at Northwestern (noon, Fox)
I expected Northwestern to give USC more of a challenge in last week’s 38-17 loss, but the Wildcats get an immediate shot at redemption against Michigan. This one might stay close because of lack of tempo alone — don’t expect more than 10-11 drives for either team — and if Caleb Komolafe and Northwestern’s running game can get going against a merely solid Michigan run defense, this one could get tense at Wrigley Field. Of course, if the Wolverines force Northwestern behind schedule regularly, this one has 24-6 written all over it.
Current line: Michigan -11.5 | SP+ projection: Michigan by 11.4 | FPI projection: Michigan by 9.0
NC State at No. 15 Miami (3:30 p.m., ESPN)
Miami handled Syracuse just fine last week, but the offense has underachieved against SP+ projections by nearly a touchdown per game since Week 3. A lack of big plays holds back the Canes, but NC State’s defense is, shall we say, quite accommodating in that regard. And with the way NC State quarterback CJ Bailey has played lately, basically every Wolfpack game has track meet potential.
Current line: Miami -15.5 | SP+ projection: Miami by 17.2 | FPI projection: Miami by 15.0
This week in the Group of 5
In the American Conference, four teams could finish 7-1. This week’s USF-Navy winner has excellent odds (about 81%, per SP+), while North Texas is at 73%, Tulane 45% and East Carolina 24%. There’s only a 6% chance that they all get there, but there’s still about a 1-in-3 chance for three to finish with one conference loss.
We’re only starting to figure out who will get the Group of 5’s CFP bid, in other words. And though four contenders — USF, Tulane, North Texas and Sun Belt favorite James Madison — are pretty much double-digit favorites Saturday, here’s where I break out the odds again: There’s only a 45% chance they all win. Intrigue!
No. 24 South Florida at Navy (noon, ESPN2)
The thing about being as good (and frequent) a rusher as Navy’s Blake Horvath is that you will get hit. A lot. He suffered an injury in Navy’s loss to North Texas and missed the loss to Notre Dame. If he plays, he and the Midshipmen could hog the ball and keep USF’s up-tempo offense on the sideline. But the Bulls have scored at least 48 in five of their past six games; they might score on every drive, regardless.
Current line: USF -9.5 | SP+ projection: USF by 6.6 | FPI projection: USF by 10.3
Florida Atlantic at Tulane (4 p.m., ESPN+)
FAU plays at a ridiculous tempo and goes for it on fourth down whenever possible. The Owls are explosive enough to damage a Tulane defense that ranks 92nd in points per drive and has given up 80 points in the past two weeks. FAU’s defense is much worse, however. Even in a track meet, Jake Retzlaff and the Green Wave have the edge.
Current line: Tulane -17.5 | SP+ projection: Tulane by 13.4 | FPI projection: Tulane by 14.3
North Texas at UAB (2 p.m., ESPN+)
This one’s similar to FAU-Tulane. UAB can wing the ball around and score some points, but the Blazers have given up at least 24 points in every game and at least 38 in five. Drew Mestemaker and the North Texas offense average 44.4 points and 487.8 yards per game. UAB already played its miracle card in the upset of Memphis; the Blazers probably don’t have another one.
Current line: UNT -18.5 | SP+ projection: UNT by 22.3 | FPI projection: UNT by 16.4
Appalachian State at James Madison (3:30 p.m., ESPN+)
App State was a pleasant surprise at 4-2, but the Mountaineers have lost three straight one-score games, and now they have to head to JMU to face quarterback Alonza Barnett III and a Dukes offense that has scored 150 combined points in its past three games. App wrecked JMU’s unbeaten start in 2023, its last trip to Harrisonburg, but this one would be quite the upset.
Current line: JMU -20.5 | SP+ projection: JMU by 22.7 | FPI projection: JMU by 17.3
Week 12 chaos superfecta
We’re once again using this space to will chaos into existence, looking at four carefully curated games with pretty big point spreads and mashing them together into a much more upset-friendly number. Thanks to Virginia’s loss to Wake Forest last Saturday, we’ve won in back-to-back weeks to move to 6-5 for the season.
Let’s make it three in a row! I basically crafted a superfecta in talking about the G5 games above, but here’s another one: SP+ says there’s only a 45% chance that Michigan (76% win probability against Northwestern), Utah (80% against Baylor), Miami (86% against NC State) and Ole Miss (86% against Florida) all win. Which one do you think goes down?
Week 12 playlist
Here are some more games you should pay attention to if you want to get the absolute most out of the weekend, from both information and entertainment perspectives.
Friday evening
Minnesota at No. 8 Oregon (9 p.m., Fox). The Big Ten-ification of Oregon continues: The Ducks have won their past two games by scores of 21-7 and 18-16. They just survived a cold, wet rock fight in Iowa City, and if Minnesota’s defense actually plays well on the road for the first time all year — a big if at this point — Oregon could end up in another one. But apparently, the Ducks are good at them!
Current line: Oregon -25.5 | SP+ projection: Oregon by 25.5 | FPI projection: Oregon by 25.4
Early Saturday
South Carolina at No. 3 Texas A&M (noon, ESPN). Under Shane Beamer, South Carolina is 3-18 as an underdog in September and October but 6-4 in November. The Gamecocks are trudging through a lost season, but they are still athletic and dangerous. Of course, A&M might be upset-proof at this point. The Aggies have overachieved against SP+ projections by 12.2 points per game since the start of October.
Current line: A&M -19.5 | SP+ projection: A&M by 21.5 | FPI projection: A&M by 12.5
Wisconsin at No. 2 Indiana (noon, BTN). Indiana has played six teams ranked worse than 60th in SP+ and has won those games by an average of 51-9. Wisconsin is 90th. The Badgers’ defense has rounded into form, and freshman QB Carter Smith added a decent dimension to the run game in last week’s upset of Washington, but … no. Hoosiers roll.
Current line: IU -29.5 | SP+ projection: IU by 34.6 | FPI projection: IU by 28.7
Arizona at No. 25 Cincinnati (noon, FS1). Next week, Cincinnati hosts BYU in a game that might make the difference in a Big 12 championship game bid. But first, the Bearcats have to survive an Arizona team that has won two straight and still has a shot at eight or nine wins. The Wildcats have an excellent defense, but Brendan Sorsby is the best QB they’ve faced all season.
Current line: Cincy -6.5 | SP+ projection: Cincy by 2.1 | FPI projection: Cincy by 4.6
Arkansas at LSU (12:45 p.m., SECN). Arkansas is a projected underdog in its final three games, so there’s a chance that a team with a top-10 offense (seventh in offensive SP+) finishes 2-10. I wouldn’t have thought that possible, but Arkansas is a place of wonders. Of course, LSU’s offense is in enough disarray that it might not even be able to punish the Hogs’ horrid defense. The stakes aren’t high, but morbid curiosity puts this one high on my list.
Current line: LSU -5.5 | SP+ projection: LSU by 4.6 | FPI projection: LSU by 5.2
Saturday afternoon
UCF at No. 7 Texas Tech (3:30 p.m., Fox). UCF still has a shot at bowl eligibility and is athletic enough to land some shots if Tech is weary after last week’s big “College GameDay” party. But here’s a foreboding combination: The Knights rank 81st in points per drive and haven’t faced a top-40 defense (per SP+) yet. Tech’s defense ranks fifth in SP+.
Current line: Tech -23.5 | SP+ projection: Tech by 23.9 | FPI projection: Tech by 18.2
Memphis at East Carolina (4 p.m., ESPNU). If ECU wins this home toss-up, the Pirates shift into prime contention in the American. SP+ still likes Memphis, but what do the Tigers have left in the tank after last week’s heartbreaking loss to Tulane? ECU’s hostile defense takes risks, creates havoc and leaves itself vulnerable to counterpunches. My favorite kind of defense.
Current line: ECU -2.5 | SP+ projection: Memphis by 0.9 | FPI projection: ECU by 0.3
North Carolina at Wake Forest (4:30 p.m., The CW). Two of the hottest defenses in the country have made this one more interesting than you (or I) probably expected. Wake has allowed 14 or fewer points in three of its past four games, while UNC has climbed back to 4-5 and still has bowl hopes because of a defense that has allowed 15.8 points per game over the past month. Take the under.
Current line: Wake -6.5 | SP+ projection: Wake by 9.3 | FPI projection: Wake by 4.9
Penn State at Michigan State (3:30 p.m., CBS). Since the two-game collapse that cost James Franklin his job, Penn State has been solid, hanging with Ohio State for a half and dropping heartbreakers to Iowa and Indiana. The 3-6 Nittany Lions could still make a bowl push, but MSU’s defense is improving, and the offense could spring some surprises with dueling quarterbacks Aidan Chiles and Alessio Milivojevic.
Current line: PSU -7.5 | SP+ projection: PSU by 14.6 | FPI projection: PSU by 9.1
New Mexico State at No. 23 Tennessee (4:15 p.m., SECN). After a week off to digest its likely elimination from the CFP hunt, Tennessee now rallies for a homestretch that includes a trip to Florida and a potential chance to ruin Vanderbilt’s CFP hopes over Rivalry Week. But first, a visit from an NMSU team that plays as physically as possible but doesn’t have the offensive weapons to make this a game.
Current line: UT -40.5 | SP+ projection: UT by 32.8 | FPI projection: UT by 38.8
Saturday evening
Florida at No. 6 Ole Miss (7 p.m., ESPN). A loss at Florida derailed Ole Miss’ playoff hopes last year and prevented one of the best Rebel teams from a shot at the national title. I bet Lane Kiffin remembers that.
Current line: Ole Miss -14.5 | SP+ projection: Ole Miss by 17.3 | FPI projection: Ole Miss by 10.0
UCLA at No. 1 Ohio State (7:30 p.m., NBC). Ohio State hasn’t played in a game decided by fewer than 18 points since Week 1 against Texas. The unbeaten Buckeyes have cruised along in about third gear for a while, but this week might be a good time to get a merely solid run game going — UCLA ranks 136th nationally in rushing success rate allowed and 104th in yards allowed per carry.
Current line: OSU -32.5 | SP+ projection: OSU by 35.4 | FPI projection: OSU by 33.9
Mississippi State at Missouri (7:45 p.m., SECN). With Mizzou’s Beau Pribula out against Texas A&M (he’s listed as doubtful this week), third-stringer Matt Zollers went just 7-for-22. Can MSU stack the box against a good run game and force Zollers to make big throws? With QB Blake Shapen coming off an injury as well, can the Bulldogs punish a good defense that fell apart late against the Aggies?
Current line: Mizzou -7.5 | SP+ projection: Mizzou by 11.4 | FPI projection: Mizzou by 7.1
Purdue at Washington (7 p.m., FS1). Purdue has improved this season, from 121st to 84th in SP+, but the Boilermakers have just a 2-8 record (0-3 in one-score finishes) to show for it. Can they throw a scare in a young Washington team that laid an egg in Madison last week? Probably not. Against defenses outside of the SP+ top 50, the Huskies average 49.4 points per game and 8.0 yards per play.
Current line: UW -16.5 | SP+ projection: UW by 20.7 | FPI projection: UW by 15.3
Kennesaw State at Jacksonville State (8 p.m., ESPNU). We have three main contenders in the Conference USA race; these are two of them. JSU, the defending champ, has won four in a row behind an excellent run game, but KSU has won seven in a row. Jerry Mack’s Owls combine big pass plays with a defense that creates negative plays and ranks 32nd in points allowed per drive.
Current line: KSU -3.5 | SP+ projection: KSU by 2.3 | FPI projection: KSU by 0.3
Late Saturday
TCU at No. 12 BYU (10:15 p.m., ESPN). TCU’s offense has disappointed in the past two weeks, and any hopes of a Big 12 title went out the window with last week’s 20-17 loss to Iowa State. The Horned Frogs have the defense to screw up BYU’s CFP hopes, but it will require quarterback Josh Hoover‘s best game in weeks, and against a top-20 Cougars defense.
Current line: BYU -4.5 | SP+ projection: BYU by 7.7 | FPI projection: BYU by 6.7
Boise State at San Diego State (10:30 p.m., CBSSN). SDSU’s playoff hopes are kaput after last week’s blowout loss to Hawai’i, but the Aztecs are still Mountain West co-favorites with Boise State, and the winner of this one might have home-field advantage in the conference title game. BSU quarterback Maddux Madsen will miss the game because of a lower-leg injury, but he could be back by the postseason.
Current line: SDSU -2.5 | SP+ projection: SDSU by 1.6 | FPI projection: BSU by 3.4
Smaller-school showcase
Let’s once again save a shout-out for the glorious lower levels of the sport. Here are three games you should track.
FCS: No. 13 Illinois State at No. 15 South Dakota State (3 p.m., ESPN+). Three weeks ago, South Dakota State was 7-0 and headlining a 1-versus-2 matchup with North Dakota State. Now, the Jackrabbits are 7-3, having fallen apart after an injury to starting quarterback Chase Mason. His status for Saturday is uncertain, but one way or the other, the Jacks need a win, especially with another ranked opponent (North Dakota) on the docket for next week. They were hoping for a top seed, and now they’re just hoping for a playoff berth. ISU, meanwhile, has won three in a row to get to 7-3 and the brink of a playoff bid, as well. This isn’t a pure win-and-you’re-in game, but it’s close.
SP+ projection: SDSU by 6.7
Division II (CIAA championship): No. 9 Virginia Union vs. No. 16 Johnson C. Smith (3 p.m., HBCU Go). The CIAA championship game is particularly interesting this year. Virginia Union has won the past two conference titles and reached the D-II quarterfinals in 2024; the Panthers are riding an eight-game winning streak (average score: 43-14). JCSU, however, hasn’t won the CIAA crown since 1969. The Golden Bulls have won six in a row since a 28-10 loss at VUU, and they’re one win from their first D-II playoff berth. Can they shine in Durham with history on the line?
SP+ projection: VUU by 7.3
FCS: No. 10 UC Davis at No. 3 Montana State (10:30 p.m., ESPN2). Montana and Montana State are unbeaten in Big Sky play, and we’re only a week from the Brawl of the Wild, one of the sport’s most picturesque rivalries. But MSU’s conference title hopes would take a hit with a loss to a UC Davis team that probably doesn’t defend enough but can keep up in a track meet with redshirt freshman quarterback Caden Pinnick and backs Jordan Fisher and Carter Vargas.
SP+ projection: MSU by 12.1
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Andrea Adelson
Florida State freshman linebacker Ethan Pritchard has been released from in-patient rehab and is expected to attend the Seminoles’ final home game of the season against Virginia Tech on Saturday.
Pritchard returned to Tallahassee on Friday and visited with the team.
He plans to continue his rehab back home in Central Florida, and told WESH-TV in an interview his plan is to play football again.
Pritchard was shot in the back of the head Aug. 31 in what the authorities have described as a case of mistaken identity. He was dropping his aunt and a child off following a family party in Havana, Fla., about 16 miles from Tallahassee, near the Georgia state line.
Four people were arrested last month in connection with the shooting.
Pritchard told WESH, “I remember everything. I turned the corner and shots rang off. I put the car in reverse and just backed up and after that, I don’t remember what else happened.”
Pritchard spent nearly six weeks in the hospital in Tallahassee before moving to a rehab center in Jacksonville. In the interview with WESH, Pritchard said he could not move his right side when he arrived at the rehab facility.
But early one morning, he woke up his dad, Earl, because he could finally move his arm.
“After that, it just got better and better,” Ethan Pritchard said.
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