How MLB’s new rules — shift ban, pitch clock, bigger bases — will change this offseason’s free agency
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Alden Gonzalez
CloseESPN Staff Writer- ESPN baseball reporter. Covered the L.A. Rams for ESPN from 2016 to 2018 and the L.A. Angels for MLB.com from 2012 to 2016.
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Jesse Rogers
Major League Baseball will look appreciably different in 2023, when pitch clocks are implemented, bigger bases are introduced and defensive shifts are practically outlawed. But the effects of those changes might start to be felt now, while rosters are being constructed. The industry’s front-office executives gathered for the general managers meetings in Las Vegas earlier this month and spent a lot of their time talking about how the new rules might impact the way players are valued.
The consensus, basically: “We’ll see.”
We know the pace of the game, a priority for the league, will be quicker. (The average game time in the minor leagues last season dropped by 26 minutes with a pitch clock — from 3 hours, 4 minutes to 2 hours, 38 minutes — according to data provided by MLB.) But we don’t know the extent to which the three new rules might impact how games unfold and, thus, how teams are built. MLB, in constant pursuit of the casual fan, doesn’t just want shorter game times; it wants more balls in play, more action on the bases, perhaps eventually more innings from pitchers. It wants a new way to win — a pursuit that should inspire creativity from the sport’s architects.
“It’s going to be fun trying to figure out where the opportunities for us to win with these new rules are that maybe another team won’t be on,” said Boston Red Sox chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom. “Why can’t we be first to those opportunities? For the most part, we’re trying to stay grounded to what we know players do to help us win baseball games. I don’t think that’s going to change dramatically. If there is something dramatic, it might come from something we didn’t spend much time thinking about and we won’t really know until there’s 30 teams out there playing with them.”
But people of Bloom’s ilk will nonetheless spend a lot of their offseason anticipating. That’s the job, essentially. What follows are their prevailing thoughts on how pitch clocks, bigger bases and shift restrictions might impact clubs’ valuation systems.
It’s a good time to be a left-handed pull hitter
This was by far the most popular notion among executives when asked about the types of players who might attain the most value with the new rules. A quick look at the numbers support their theory. The shift was used on 34% of plate appearances last season, nearly three times more often than it was just five years earlier. Lefties were shifted against a whopping 55% of the time in 2022, according to research by ESPN Stats & Information research. Batting average on balls in play by left-handed hitters was .283, the lowest in a full season since 1989 (for righties, who were shifted on 34% of the time, it was .296). Their BABIP on ground balls was a miniscule .219.
The rules limiting the shift will require all four infielders to place both feet within the outer boundary of the infield; two of them must reside on each side of second base. Those restrictions were utilized in Double-A and at both Class A levels this past season, and only marginal increases in BABIP were experienced (BABIP by left-handed hitters on ground balls went from .240 to .249 year over year). But shifts are far more prominent in the major leagues, where suddenly you won’t see that additional infielder in shallow right field — a potential boon for the left-handed power hitter.
A prime example of their increasing value has already presented itself with Joc Pederson, who made a combined $13 million off back-to-back free-agent contracts in 2021 and 2022 but accepted the $19.65 million qualifying offer from the San Francisco Giants for 2023. Giants president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi spoke to reporters shortly after Pederson accepted the offer and said, “If you ask Joc, he probably thinks he’s going to win the batting title next year.”
Seattle Mariners president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto: “I can’t think of a team that I’ve talked to so far that hasn’t expressed interest in acquiring left-handed hitting. I do think that’s the most obvious difference. I don’t know if it will immediately affect roster building, but I think it’s going to affect the way the game is played. If it doesn’t impact roster building now, it will a year from now.”
Detroit Tigers president of baseball operations Scott Harris: “The banning of the shift presents new opportunities for left-handed hitters. That’s the demographic that batted balls were eaten up by with the shift.”
Cincinnati Reds GM Nick Krall: “On offense, pull guys are going to look better.”
Los Angeles Dodgers GM Brandon Gomes: “My sense would be the left-handed slugger [will attain more value], just being able to accumulate more hits and not just do damage. That would be my pick. You could argue a lot of other things. But we don’t really know what the pitch clock is going to do. There could be a bunch of things that we’re not even appreciating right now that play out.”
Free agents it helps most: Twelve qualified players were shifted against on more than 75% of the pitches they saw from 2017 to 2022. They are, in descending order: Chris Davis, Carlos Santana, Joey Gallo, Justin Smoak, Kyle Tucker, Yordan Alvarez, Matt Carpenter, Jay Bruce, Mitch Moreland, Matt Olson, Brandon Belt and Max Muncy. Santana, Gallo, Carpenter and Belt are all free agents this offseason.
Speed — particularly infielders with range — will be at a premium
The end of extreme shifts means infielders, particularly up the middle, will be tasked with covering more ground. Teams will have a harder time getting away with non-traditional second basemen, and shortstops with above-average range will probably become more important.
That’s where executives seem to be focusing right now — but there’s also a baserunning component, though the potential impact in that realm remains a mystery.
Base sizes will increase from 15 to 18 square inches, shortening the distance between first and second and second and third by 4.5 inches (it’s three inches from home to first and third to home). MLB has pinned the reasoning to injury prevention (base-related injuries at the four full-season minor league levels went from 453 in 2021 to 392 in 2022, when bigger bases were implemented, according to the league). But perhaps base-stealing, a dying skill that captivates fans, will see an uptick. There were only 0.68 stolen-base attempts per team game this season, fourth fewest since 1969, which marks the beginning of the Divisional Era. The only years in that stretch with a lower rate: 2019, 2020 and 2021.
According to MLB, the full-season minor-league levels went from 2.23 stolen-base attempts and a 68% success rate in 2019 to 2.83 at a 77% success rate in 2022, seemingly a product of both the bigger bases and a new rule that will limit pitchers to two pickoff attempts per plate appearance.
Washington Nationals president of baseball operations Mike Rizzo: “Athleticism will be a premium since that will impact the changes both on offense and defense. It’ll be a slow building process to see how it plays out.”
Chicago White Sox GM Rick Hahn: “The pitch clock is going to be the biggest adjustment because it’s on every play, but the shift will have the biggest impact in terms of roster construction. You’ll need to see more athleticism out of your middle infielders than you were able to get away with in the past.”
Harris: “Banning the shift creates a higher premium on infield range because you can’t cover for range by positioning as you’re used to. You price that into your decision-making when it comes to personnel.”
Krall: “We’ll look at infield defense a little differently without the shift.”
Chicago Cubs president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer: “You can’t hide guys in the shift anymore. You want athleticism to cover that space. The days of seeing some below-average guys playing second base are going to be gone. That’s worth thinking about.”
Miami Marlins GM Kim Ng: “I think you’ll see more athletic second basemen than we’ve seen in the past few years.”
Oakland Athletics GM David Forst: “I’ve heard talk about that. I think we have such a good idea of a player’s athleticism, his ability, how he moves for the ball in the infield. We’re still gonna do the best we can positionally, so I’m not playing a second baseman straight up every time just because we can’t shift. You’re still gonna have the ability to move it around. I think maybe that’s a little overblown, but obviously you’re gonna need a little more range to play just about everywhere.”
Free agents it helps most: Trea Turner, a highly coveted shortstop this offseason, is one of the fastest players in the sport. His value as an elite base-stealer is even greater now. Keep athletic free-agent second basemen like Jean Segura, Adam Frazier and Josh Harrison in mind, too.
WANTED: Pitchers who can work faster — without diminishing their stuff
MLB’s main motivation for the pitch clock is quickening pace and shortening game times. It sees a health component, as well, noting that pitcher injuries in the minor leagues went from 1,058 in 2021 to 782 in 2022. The league believes the cumulative effect of playing shorter games, getting more sleep and letting the body recover for a longer stretch might have played a part in the dip. Another, less-publicized hope is that the cartoonish stuff that has proliferated the sport — the hellacious slider, the triple-digit sinker, etc. — will diminish if pitchers don’t take so long to gather themselves. Some, like Dipoto, refute that notion.
Dipoto has instructed his minor-league employees to coach against what he calls “the long burn” dating back to his days as GM of the Los Angeles Angels. He believes it’s better for development — for the pitcher, the batter and the fielders — when pitchers throw at a faster tempo. It keeps infielders sharper, builds better stamina for pitchers and increases the level of difficulty for hitters. He has found that pitchers can adapt rather quickly to a pitch clock, and he has found that their stuff isn’t compromised by working more quickly.
Said Dipoto: “Some of the stuff-iest guys I’ve ever seen are fast workers.”
Cleveland Guardians president of baseball operations Chris Antonetti: “The pitch clock won’t impact roster construction. In time, everyone will adapt to it. In terms of it affecting max ability and for how long pitchers can go — I’m not sure anyone has full visibility on that.”
Forst: “There’s definitely something to be learned by how quickly a guy works. I think it’s hard to quantify what the skill is, but look, we saw pitchers who were in Triple-A with a pitch clock come up without a pitch clock and they worked differently. And you ask them and they say, ‘I don’t have to work quickly in the big leagues. I can take more time.'”
Milwaukee Brewers GM Matt Arnold: “The pitch clock will be a factor more from a training perspective than an acquisition one, but we don’t know how these are going to play out yet. I’m intrigued how it could impact acquisitions. We just don’t know.”
St. Louis Cardinals president of baseball operations John Mozeliak: “I think pitchers are going to adapt to it. I think hitters are the ones who are going to have trouble. Pitchers do it all the time. Pitchers on rehab don’t seem to have a problem. When you look at younger guys that are coming up, they’re staying in the box, they’re ready to go, they’re ready to hit. And I’m just wondering — [hitters] who have been in the league now five, 10 years, how are they gonna deal with it? I think spring training is gonna be really telling.”
Free agents it helps most: That’s really difficult to know right now. But for reference, here are the five fastest workers in baseball from 2021 to 2022, among those who throw at least 1,000 pitches, per Statcast: Wade Miley, Brent Suter, Aaron Ashby, Taijuan Walker, Josh Fleming. And the slowest (based on average tempo with the bases empty): Kyle Finnegan, Jake Diekman, Jose Suarez, Clay Holmes, Yu Darvish. Miley and Walker are free agents.
NEW YORK — The Jazz Age is in full swing at Yankee Stadium.
Whether with his bat, his glove, his arm or his smile, Jazz Chisholm Jr. is energizing the New York Yankees and their fans.
Chisholm hit a second-inning, go-ahead homer and a bases-loaded triple while making three sparkling defensive plays at third base Sunday in a 12-5 romp over the Athletics.
“That’s why we got him. That’s what the Yankees do. They go after guys that are going to make an impact,” said New York captain Aaron Judge, who homered twice to reach 30 for the sixth time.
Chisholm is batting .318 with six homers, 18 RBIs and four stolen bases since returning from a strained right oblique on June 3, raising his season totals to .242 with 13 homers, 35 and 10 steals in 53 games.
“I feel like me. I feel I’m back in my era, that I was younger just going out there and just hitting, just not worrying about stuff,” the 27-year-old said. “Just not worrying by my swing, not worrying about striding too far. Everything just feels good and I’m just going.”
After a four-RBI night against Boston in his fourth game back, Chisholm made the unusual assertion he was thriving by giving 70% effort and not stressing.
With New York seeking to reopen a 1½-game AL East lead, he drove a first-pitch sinker from former Yankee Luis Severino into the right-field seats for a 1-0, second-inning lead. Ever exuberant, he raised his right hand and made a peace sign toward the Yankees bullpen after rounding first.
Chisholm snagged Jacob Wilson‘s two-hopper with two on and one out in the third, bounded off third base for the forceout and balletically arced a throw to first for an inning-ending double play.
With the bases loaded in the bottom half, Chisholm hit a changeup to the right-center gap that rolled past center fielder Denzel Clarke. He pulled into third base standing up and raised three fingers.
“It’s like a blackout situation,” Chisholm said. “I didn’t even realize I put up three at third base.”
With the bases loaded in the sixth, he made a diving stop near the dirt behind third on Luis Urías‘ 102.1 mph smash, popped up and followed with a one-hop throw to first baseman Paul Goldschmidt. Then he caught Tyler Soderstrom‘s foul pop in the eighth inning while falling against netting in the narrow space next to the rolled-up tarp.
“Jazz’s defense I think was better than even his day at the plate,” said pitcher Marcus Stroman, who won in his return from a 2½-month injury layoff. “He was incredible over there: a bunch of huge plays that helped me out in big spots, plays that are not normal plays.”
New York acquired Chisholm from Miami last July 27 for three minor leaguers. Since then, he has hit .257 with 24 homers, 58 RBIs and 28 stolen bases in 99 games.
“His game’s so electric, and he can change the game and kind of affect the game in so many different ways in a dynamic fashion,” Yankees manager Aaron Boone said. “So, when he is playing at a high level, I think it does energize everyone.”
Chisholm briefly caused worry in the sixth. He grimaced in pain after stopping his swing at a 1-2 fastball from Elvis Alvarado, which sailed high and outside. Chisholm went to the dugout and immediately up the tunnel to the clubhouse.
Then he reappeared at third base for the start of the seventh.
“The bat kind of slipped out of my hand and hit me on the finger,” he said. “It just hit the bone and when you get hit on the bone, it’s kind of funny, it’s just feels weird. So, it was kind of scary at first, but we’re good.”
Judge, meanwhile, didn’t allow Athletics reliever Tyler Ferguson to make good on last year’s wish of striking out the Yankees slugger.
Ferguson, who set his goal last year after making his debut with the Athletics following nine seasons in the minor leagues, was one strike away in his first matchup with Judge on Sunday. Instead, he gave up a two-run shot off a 95.5 mph four-seam fastball in the seventh to become the 261st pitcher to give up a homer to the slugger.
Judge said he had been unaware of Ferguson’s comment.
Ferguson turned around and watched the 426-foot drive as YES Network play-by-play announcer Ryan Ruocco proclaimed: “The King of Fresno.”
“That’s why you don’t talk in public,” YES Network analyst and former reliever Jeff Nelson said on the telecast. “You don’t make a comment that I want to strike out Judge in public. You keep it to yourself.”
Ferguson graduated from Clovis West High School in Fresno when Judge batted .308 as a sophomore at Fresno State in 2012.
“First time facing him, best hitter in the league,” Ferguson said. “So I was looking forward to that at-bat. I was able to get ahead and then wasn’t able to execute a couple of pitches and he was able to get it back to 3-2 and I didn’t get the ball quite as high as I would have liked and he made a good swing on it.”
Judge reached 30 homers for the fifth straight season and fourth time before All-Star break. He also became the sixth player in team history with six 30-homer seasons, and he joined Mickey Mantle and Joe DiMaggio as just the third to do so in the first 10 years of his career.
The Associated Press contributed to this report.
If you picked the mighty Los Angeles Dodgers to be the first team to win 50 games this MLB season, you weren’t alone.
You were also wrong.
If you picked the Detroit Tigers, congratulations! We’re not sure we believe you, but we’ll give you the benefit of the doubt.
The Tigers won their 50th game on Tuesday, a full day before the Dodgers, and they got there thanks to big contributions all season from ace Tarik Skubal, the red-hot Riley Greene and the resurgent Javier Baez, among many others.
But are they really as good as they’ve played so far? Are they even the American League’s best team? Could they defeat the Dodgers (or whichever team comes out of a stacked National League) in the World Series?
We asked MLB experts Bradford Doolittle, Tim Keown, Jeff Passan and David Schoenfield to tackle all things Tigers before they play host to the Minnesota Twins on “Sunday Night Baseball” (7 p.m. ET, ESPN and ESPN2).
Who is the biggest threat to Detroit in the AL — and would you take the Tigers to beat them in an ALCS showdown?
Doolittle: The Yankees still have the AL’s best roster and remain the favorites in the circuit, even with the Rays and Astros closing in fast on both Detroit and New York. This feels like a season in which, by the time we get to October, there’s not going to be a clear-cut front-runner in the AL. But if we zero in on a possible Tigers-Yankees ALCS, I like the interchangeability of the Detroit staff, which we saw in action late last year. Max Fried and Skubal cancel each other out, so it really comes down to the number of favorable matchups A.J. Hinch can manipulate during a series of games between two postseason offenses likely predicated on timely multi-run homers.
Keown: It’s obviously the Yankees — unless it’s the Rays. Tampa’s lineup is deep and insistent, and the pitching staff is exactly what it always seems to be: consistent, stingy and comprised of guys only hardcore fans can identify. They’re really, really good — by far the best big league team playing in a minor league ballpark.
Passan: It’s still the New York Yankees. They’ve got Aaron Judge, they’ve got Fried and Carlos Rodon for four starts, they’ve got better lineup depth than Detroit. Who wins the theoretical matchup could depend on how aggressively each team pursues improvement at the trade deadline. Suffice to say, the Tigers will not be trading Jack Flaherty this year.
Schoenfield: I was going to say the Yankees as well, but as I’m writing this I just watched the Astros sweep the Phillies, holding them to one run in three games. As great as Skubal has been, Hunter Brown has been just as good — if not better. (A couple of Brown-Skubal matchups in the ALCS would be super fun.) Throw in Framber Valdez and you have two aces plus one of the best late-game bullpens in the biz. The offense? Nothing great. The difference-maker is clear: getting Yordan Alvarez healthy and hitting again.
Who is the biggest threat to Detroit in the NL — and would you take the Tigers to beat them in a World Series matchup?
Doolittle: The Dodgers are the team to beat, full stop. In many ways, their uneven start to the season, caused by so many pitching injuries, represents the lower tier of L.A.’s possible range of outcomes. And the Dodgers still are right there at the top of the majors. I can’t think of any good reason to pick against them in any 2025 competitive context. In a Tigers-Dodgers World Series — which would somehow be the first one ever — I just can’t see the Tigers scoring enough to beat L.A. four times.
Keown: The Dodgers. No need to get cute here. The Dodgers are the biggest threat to just about everything baseball-related. And while the matchup would be a hell of a lot of fun, filled with all those contradictory juxtapositions that makes a series riveting, let’s just say L.A. in seven.
Passan: It’s still the Los Angeles Dodgers. They’re getting healthier, with Shohei Ohtani back on the mound and still hitting more home runs than anyone in the National League. Will Smith is having the quietest .300/.400/.500 season in memory. Freddie Freeman is doing Freddie Freeman things. Andy Pages is playing All-Star-caliber baseball. Even Max Muncy is hitting now. And, yes, the pitching has been a problem, but they’ve got enough depth — and enough minor league depth to use in trades — that they’re bound to find 13 more-than-viable arms to use in October.
Schoenfield: A Tigers-Dodgers showdown would be a classic Original 16 matchup and those always feel a little more special. Although who wouldn’t want to see a rematch of the 1945, 1935, 1908 or 1907 World Series between the Tigers and Cubs? Those were split 2-2, so we need a tiebreaker. But I digress. Yes, the Dodgers are still the team to beat in the NL — especially since we’ve seen the Phillies’ issues on offense, the Cubs’ lack of pitching depth and the Mets’ inconsistency. The Dodgers have injuries to deal with, but there is still time for Blake Snell and Tyler Glasnow and everyone else to get back.
One game, season on the line, who would you want on the mound for your team: Tarik Skubal or any other ace in the sport?
Doolittle: I’d go with Skubal by a hair over Zack Wheeler, with Paul Skenes lurking in the three-hole. The way things are going, by the end of the year it might be Jacob Misiorowski, but I’m probably getting ahead of myself. Anyway, Skubal has carried last season’s consistent dominance over and he’s just in that rare zone that great starters reach where you’re surprised when someone actually scores against them. He and Wheeler are tied with the most game scores of 70 or better (18) since the start of last season. Their teams are both 17-1 in those games. It’s a coin flip, but give me Skubal.
Keown: Skubal. There are plenty of other candidates — Wheeler, Fried, Jacob deGrom, and how about some love for Logan Webb? — but I’m all but certain a poll of big league hitters would reveal Skubal as the one they’d least like to face with everything riding on the outcome.
Passan: Give me Skubal. Even if others have the experience and pedigree, I’m going to bet on stuff. And nobody’s stuff — not even Skenes’ — is at Skubal’s level right now. He doesn’t walk anyone. He strikes out everyone. He suppresses home runs. If you could build a pitcher in a lab, he would look a lot like Skubal.
Schoenfield: I’m going with Wheeler, just based on his postseason track record: He has a 2.18 ERA over 70⅓ career innings in October, allowing no runs or one run in five of his 11 career starts. Those are all since 2022, so it’s not like we’re looking at accomplishments from a decade ago. And Wheeler is arguably pitching better than ever, with a career-low OPS allowed and a career-high strikeout rate.
What is Detroit’s biggest weakness that could be exposed in October?
Doolittle: I think elite October-level pitching might expose an overachieving offense. It’s a solid lineup but the team’s leading run producers — Greene, Spencer Torkelson, Zach McKinstry, Baez, etc. — can pile up the whiffs in a hurry. If that happens, this is a team that doesn’t run at all, and that lack of versatility concerns me.
Keown: The Tigers are the odd team that doesn’t have a glaring weakness or an especially glaring strength. They have a lot of really good players but just one great one in Skubal. (We’re keeping a second spot warm for Riley Greene.) They’re managed by someone who knows how to navigate the postseason, and they’ve rolled the confidence they gained with last season’s remarkable playoff run into this season. So take your pick: Any aspect of the game could propel them to a title, and any aspect could be their demise. And no, that doesn’t answer the question.
Passan: The left side of Detroit’s infield is not what one might consider championship-caliber. With Trey Sweeney getting most of the at-bats at shortstop, the Tigers are running out a sub-replacement player on most days. Third base is even worse: Detroit’s third basemen are barely OPSing .600, and while they might have found their answer in McKinstry, relying on a 30-year-old who until this year had never hit is a risky proposition.
Schoenfield: I’m not completely sold on their late-game bullpen — or their bullpen in general. No doubt, Will Vest and changeup specialist Tommy Kahnle have done the job so far, but neither has a dominant strikeout rate for a 2025 closer and overall the Detroit bullpen ranks just 25th in the majors in strikeout rate. How will that play in the postseason against better lineups?
With one month left until the trade deadline, what is the one move the Tigers should make to put themselves over the top?
Doolittle: The big-ticket additions would be a No. 3 or better starting pitcher or a bona fide closer — the same stuff all the contenders would like to add. A lower-profile move that would really help would be to target a shortstop like Isiah Kiner-Falefa, whose bat actually improves what Detroit has gotten from the position just in terms of raw production. But he also adds contact ability, another stolen base threat and a plus glove. For the Tigers to maximize the title chances produced by their great start, they need to think in terms of multiple roster-filling moves, not one big splash.
Keown: Prevailing wisdom says to beef up the bullpen and improve the offense at third base, which would put names like Pete Fairbanks and Nolan Arenado at the top of the list. But the pitching and offense are both top-10 in nearly every meaningful statistic, and I contend there’s an equally good case to be made for the Tigers to go all in on a top-line starting pitcher. Providing Sandy Alcantara a fresh environment would deepen the rotation and lighten the psychic load on Tarik Skubal and Casey Mize. (Every word of this becomes moot if the MLB return of 34-year-old KBO vet Dietrich Enns is actually the answer.)
Passan: Bring Eugenio Suarez home. The third baseman, who currently has 25 home runs and is slugging .569, signed with Detroit as an amateur in 2008 and spent five years in the minors before debuting in 2014. That winter, the Tigers traded him to Cincinnati for right-hander Alfredo Simon, who, in his only season in Detroit, posted a 5.05 ERA in 187 innings. Suarez’s power would fit perfectly in the Tigers’ lineup and is robust enough to get over the fence at Comerica Park, one of the largest stadiums in MLB.
Schoenfield: This is the beauty of the Tigers: They can go in any direction. As good as the offense has been, it feels like several of these guys are ripe for regression in the second half: Baez, McKinstry, maybe Torkelson and Gleyber Torres. That group is all way over their 2024 level of production. If those guys fade, an impact bat might be the answer. But is one available? Arenado certainly isn’t an impact bat anymore and might not be traded anyway. Maybe Eugenio Suarez if the Diamondbacks fade. But the likeliest and easiest answer: bullpen help.
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