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As we navigate the holiday season, baseball fans can do so with a rare gift already in place. After a frenetic offseason, the heavy lifting of the hot stove campaign is arguably already complete.

That’s almost unheard of for a sport that in recent years has seen offseasons move at a glacial pace, but so far, this has been a glorious one. Teams still have work to do. There are still middle-tier free agents to be signed, some of whom will play valuable roles for their new teams. And you never know when a splashy trade can alter the MLB landscape.

Still and all, with the elite free agents all locked up, it’s a perfect time to take a snapshot of the league as we head into the rest of the winter.

These numbers here are a rough cut. Underpinning them are the player projections from Steamer, available at Fangraphs.com. I’ve made tweaks to playing time forecasts on my depth charts in order to compile a basic win projection for each team, which I used as the basis for running 10,000 simulations of the 2023 schedule.

Some quick notes on what you see:

• Teams are ranked by projected wins, or the average wins during the simulations.

• Playoffs and title odds are self explanatory, except …

• I also ran simulations based on an estimate of how teams rated based on healthy versions of rosters as they stood before the start of free agency. Following the title odds is a number that tells us how much a team’s championship chances have gone up or down or not all based on its offseason work to date.

• I’ve estimated how much impact new acquisitions will have on the 2023 rosters, based on projected playing time. Since the numbers are rough, rather than sharing that calculation, I’ve simply indicated how a team ranks in terms of offseason “aggression.” This measure is as much about quantity as quality. That’s because …

• Teams also lose players. The “improvement” rank considers the net impact a team’s offseason machinations have had on its 2023 outlook. This is a rating on the moves alone, not on the team’s overall chances to be better, an assessment that should also consider aging patterns, improvement of young players, regression factors, etc.

Here are the top 30 teams in Major League Baseball, as of today.

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SEC outlines discipline for fake injury ‘nonsense’

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SEC outlines discipline for fake injury 'nonsense'

SEC commissioner Greg Sankey sent a memo Friday to league athletic directors and head football coaches outlining punishment if players continue to fake injuries in games.

“As plainly as it can be stated: Stop any and all activity related to faking injuries to create time-outs,” Sankey wrote in the memo, a copy of which was obtained by ESPN.

He ended the memo by writing: “Play football and stop the feigned injury nonsense.”

Increasingly over the past few years, coaches have repeatedly accused opposing teams and coaches of faking injuries to disrupt the rhythm and flow of offenses, especially those that are up-tempo and rarely huddle. Broadcasters have pointed out several obvious cases this season when players flopped to the ground near the sideline claiming to be injured just as the opposing offense was about to snap the ball.

Each play where a fake injury might have occurred must be submitted to the SEC for review. Steve Shaw, the national coordinator of football officiating, will determine what constitutes a fake injury. According to Sankey’s memo, those guidelines will range from Shaw determining that a feigned injury has occurred, that it is more likely than not that a feigned injury has occurred, that a player attempted to feign an injury or any other general statement from Shaw establishing the probability of a feigned injury.

Sankey wrote that creating injury timeouts, on offense or defense, is “not acceptable and is disrespectful to the game of football.”

Punishments laid out in Sankey’s memo include the following: for the first offense, a head coach receives a public reprimand and a $50,000 fine; for the second offense, another reprimand and a $100,000 fine; for a third offense, another reprimand and the coach will be suspended for his program’s next game.

Any staff member found to be involved in signaling or directing a player to feign an injury will face the same measures, including financial penalties and a suspension. A player cited for feigning an injury also may be subject to a public reprimand.

Sankey told reporters a few weeks ago at the Oklahoma-Texas game that he was concerned about the growing accusations of faking injuries.

“If somebody’s injured, we need to take that seriously,” Sankey said. “But creating the questions — and I mean this all across the country — needs to stop.”

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Sources: Top Michigan CB Johnson out vs. Oregon

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Sources: Top Michigan CB Johnson out vs. Oregon

All-American Michigan cornerback Will Johnson is out against No. 1 Oregon on Saturday, sources confirmed to ESPN, leaving the Wolverines without their top defensive player.

Johnson left the Illinois game on Oct. 19 with a lower-body injury and missed the Michigan State game last week. He’s still recovering from that lower-body injury, and his timeline to return is uncertain.

Michigan coach Sherrone Moore said this week that Johnson is expected back at some point this season “for sure” but didn’t specify when.

Johnson is considered the top cornerback prospect for the upcoming NFL draft. He has delivered two pick-sixes this year for the Wolverines, returning interceptions 86 yards against Fresno State and 42 yards against USC.

Last season, he snagged four interceptions for the Wolverines and earned defensive MVP honors for the 2023 national championship game.

247 Sports first reported Johnson’s expected absence.

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Baffert’s horses 1-2 in Breeders’ Cup Juvenile

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Baffert's horses 1-2 in Breeders' Cup Juvenile

DEL MAR, Calif. — Citizen Bull won the $2 million Breeders’ Cup Juvenile by 1½ lengths and Gaming was second at Del Mar on Friday, giving Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert a 1-2 finish and his record sixth career victory in the race for 2-year-olds.

Ridden by Martin Garcia, Citizen Bull ran 1¹⁄₁₆ miles in 1:43.07. He paid $33.80 at 15-1 odds.

Citizen Bull earned 30 qualifying points for the Kentucky Derby, where Baffert will return next year for the first time since 2021. His three-year ban by Churchill Downs ended in July.

Gaming was the 6-1 third choice. Baffert’s other entry, Getaway Car, named for the Taylor Swift song, finished fourth at 25-1 odds.

“It’s exciting when your horses show up,” Baffert said. “I was hoping they’d run 1-2-3.”

It was Baffert’s 19th career Cup win and he broke a tie with D. Wayne Lukas for most Juvenile victories. Jockey Martin Garcia earned his fifth career Cup win.

“He always comes through. He’s a big-time rider,” Baffert said of Garcia. “He told me, ‘I’m going to win it.'”

East Avenue, the 8-5 favorite, stumbled out of the starting gate and nearly went down to his knees. He finished ninth in the 10-horse field. Chancer McPatrick, the 5-2 second choice, lost for the first time in four career starts and was sixth.

Racing resumes Saturday with nine Cup races, highlighted by the $7 million Classic.

In other races:

– Immersive won the $2 million Juvenile Fillies by 4½ lengths, giving trainer Brad Cox at least one Cup win in each of the past seven years. Ridden by Manny Cox, Immersive ran 1¹⁄₁₆ miles in 1:44.36 to remain undefeated. Sent off as the 2-1 favorite, she paid $6 to win.

– Lake Victoria overcame a challenging trip to win the $2 million Juvenile Fillies Turf by 1¼ lengths. The 2-year-old filly ran 1 mile in 1:34.28 and paid $3.40 as the 3-5 favorite. Irish trainer Aidan O’Brien and jockey Ryan Moore earned the win.

– Magnum Force rallied to overtake leader Governor Sam and win the $1 million Juvenile Turf Sprint by a quarter-length. The 12-1 shot ran five furlongs in 56.36 seconds and paid $27 to win. Irish trainer Ger Lyons and jockey Colin Keane earned their first Cup victories. Governor Sam, co-owned by Houston Astros free agent Alex Bregman, finished third.

– Henri Matisse won the $1 million Juvenile Turf, with Moore and O’Brien teaming for their second win of the day. Moore won his 16th career Cup race. It was O’Brien’s 20th career Cup win and seventh in the race. Sent off as the 7-2 favorite, Henri Matisse ran 1 mile in 1:34.48. Iron Man Cal was second and Aomori City third. There was a lengthy steward’s inquiry involving New Century, who finished fourth, and Dream On, who was fifth, but there was no change to the order of finish.

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