CHARLOTTESVILLE, Va. — When Tony Elliott walked into his first team meeting at Virginia in late 2021, he promised to develop the model program, one built on excellence in the classroom and on the field. He did it while looking at a representation of all he and his team would have to overcome: His players were sitting on white plastic folding chairs inside the indoor practice facility, because its outdated football building did not have a meeting room big enough to fit everyone.

Elliott came from Clemson, where the football facility, which opened in 2017, featured everything from a king-sized weight room to an in-house barber shop to state-of-the-art training tables and recovery areas. But when he arrived at Virginia, the facility he inherited had no modern amenities. Every meeting room was too small. There was no nutrition space — meals were handed out of a trailer after practice. No players lounge, either, nor space for support staff. It looked and felt every bit like something from 1991, which is, in fact, the year it was built.

That, however, did not stop Elliott from selling his vision. Forget about the folding chairs. Forget about having no place to eat. Forget about what you thought about Virginia football. This would be a new era. He wholeheartedly believed. So did the players who opted to stay and play for him.

Players like Lavel Davis Jr. and D’Sean Perry. Players like Devin Chandler, who transferred in from Wisconsin.

Today, everything Elliott spelled out in those early days is on full display. No. 19 Virginia (8-2) is off to its best start since 1990. Despite losing to Wake Forest last week after quarterback Chandler Morris was knocked out of the game, the Cavaliers are still in the mix in the ACC championship race. They face a must-win game Saturday against Duke (3:30 p.m. ET, ESPN2) and are hopeful Morris will be able to play.

A new $80 million, 93,000-square foot football operations center opened last year, with spacious team meeting rooms and a large dining room featuring a chef who worked at a Michelin-rated restaurant in London. The 14,000-square foot weight room is nearly as large as the old 15,000-square foot facility.

Displayed prominently as you enter the building are the Nos. 1, 15 and 41 jerseys that belonged to Davis, Chandler and Perry, who were shot and killed on a charter bus after returning home from a class field trip to Washington, D.C., three years ago.

When Elliott walks past those jerseys, he thinks about what could have been. Some days he thinks about their funerals. He thinks about their families. He thinks about the lives they should be living.

Elliott thinks about Chandler, who would have been in his sixth season this year, living out everything that was promised on his recruiting visit, celebrating a magical season with his fellow seniors.

He thinks about where Davis and Perry would be in pursuing their post-collegiate dreams, perhaps standing on the sideline in Scott Stadium rooting on their former teammates, maybe storming the field when they beat Florida State in September.

What would they think of their team?

Would they be proud?

In a recent sit-down interview with ESPN, Elliott acknowledged for the first time that he seriously considered retiring after their deaths, unwilling to accept burying three young men, unsure how to lift his team when he had no idea how to lift himself.

“There were days that I wanted to be like, ‘I can’t do it anymore.’ I don’t have to do it,” he says now.

Elliott knew he would be navigating a path no other coach had ever charted: Keeping his promise to build that model program amid unprecedented tragedy. He had unwavering support from the school administration. But more than that, he had its promise to finally invest in Virginia football.

Three years after losing Chandler, Davis and Perry, Elliott is well on his way to delivering on the promises he made.

“It’s a beautiful thing to watch, and it is inspirational,” Virginia athletic director Carla Williams said. “I’m inspired to see how they have shown up every day since the tragedy. It’s very rewarding to see the success, and it just adds to the determination to see it through.”

AT THE TEAM’S first meeting in January, Elliott had all the new players go around the room, introduce themselves and explain why they chose Virginia. When it was Morris’ turn, he got up and bluntly said, “I came here to win a conference championship.”

“That’s the type of leader you want, and that’s when the majority of the room realized if we have a leader who’s that vocal, it’s time to do our part,” said senior kicker Will Bettridge, who has been with the program since 2022.

A few weeks later, Morris reiterated that sentiment in his first interview with reporters at Virginia. “I didn’t come all the way to Virginia as a Texas boy to win five, six games,” Morris said. “I want to win the conference championship.”

Reflecting on those comments, Morris told ESPN: “Talking to everyone affiliated with the program, you saw buy-in, a hungry program, everyone wanting to get this thing turned around. I knew there was a lot of support there, and we’d be able to go out and get the playmakers and people that we needed.”

Elliott and his players had no problem with Morris being so bold in the media. They all agreed with him.

Williams and Elliott had been working for years to incentivize investment in football. Bronco Mendenhall, who was the head coach at Virginia from 2016 to 2021, said during his time there that Virginia had the worst facilities in the ACC. He was not wrong. The small building was a hindrance on the recruiting trail. Getting a new facility funded was paramount. Once it was built, Williams and Elliott moved on to objective No. 2: financial investment in the program itself, going all-in on revenue sharing, NIL and enhancing the support staff.

Revenue sharing opened up a new world for Virginia. With athletic departments able to pay student athletes up to $20.5 million, Williams and Elliott set out to convince donors how important it was for Virginia to play the game its blue-blood football counterparts would be playing. The results soon followed.

Virginia made its strongest portal push under Elliott in the December 2024 window, armed with a large financial investment that it did not have previously, thanks in large part to a multimillion-dollar transformative gift from an anonymous donor. The school called the donation “the largest one-time cash contribution and the largest non-capital gift to Virginia football in program history.”

That allowed the Cavaliers to sign Morris and 16 other players, bolstering talent and depth at quarterback, receiver, defensive back and the offensive and defensive lines. Williams said Virginia was strategic in its build toward this moment: First the football operations center, then support for building the roster and support staff.

“Fortunately, we had several key donors who believe in the same things we believe in,” Williams said. “They believe in the way that we try to do things. They believe in long-term, sustainable success … the resources are massive. The folks who have been central to supporting the program did that before they saw the results, and that’s important.”

Though Elliott had posted three losing records in three seasons at Virginia, everybody inside the building knew that the foundation of the program was being reinforced. The future could really be different. Across the country, programs such as Indiana and Vanderbilt were holding their own against the blue bloods.

Why not Virginia?

“How did the football schools become football schools?” Elliott asks. “They made a decision, and then people bought in, and they created a culture. That’s really what it takes. Virginia has everything that it needs.”

TONY ELLIOTT’S MOTHER died in a car accident when he was just 9. He was riding in a van with her, his sister, stepbrother and stepfather when it hit another car and flipped over. Tony, his sister, stepbrother and stepfather survived. He found his pregnant mother motionless next to the van in a pool of blood. Elliott compartmentalized what happened. He was still just a kid. He didn’t fully comprehend that he would never see his mom again.

He poured everything he had into football, a place where he could forget about not having his mom, and eventually became a wide receiver at Clemson. After graduating, he spent two years as an engineer at Michelin North America. But he missed being around the game, and he started work as a volunteer coach at a local high school. He believed that the best way he could help others was through football.

Elliott eventually became one of the best assistants in the nation as the co-offensive coordinator and playcaller at Clemson, helping the Tigers win national titles in 2016 and 2018.

As the Tigers kept winning, Elliott kept getting calls about open head coaching jobs. For years, he turned them down. He wanted to wait for the school that felt right: a school with a strong academic profile that would also give him the ability to build a program the way he wanted and a chance to settle down and raise his family. And that’s what Virginia offered.

Then, 11 months into the job, Davis, Chandler and Perry were killed. Running back Mike Hollins was shot trying to help his teammates and was hospitalized. This time, Elliott had no choice but to confront the tragedy. It took decades for him to fully grasp losing his mother, which he described as “a gift and a curse,” in an interview with ESPN in 2015.

“I was hearing a lot of, ‘Everything you went through in your past, dealing with your mom and the adversity of your childhood, this is why you’re here,” Elliott said. “I didn’t want to hear that in the moment. That was 30 years ago. I’ve already done what I needed to do with that. I’m on the other side.

“I would get upset at times when people would say that, because it’s not what I wanted to hear. I want to be like everybody else. I wanted to hear the easy thing, like, ‘Hey, it’s not your fight. You don’t have to do this. Go start over. Go do something different.'”

He seriously thought about walking away. It was not the first time the thought crossed his mind. In 2018, former Clemson running back CJ Fuller died at age 22 from complications related to a blood clot. Then, after former Clemson running back Tyshon Dye drowned the following year at the age of 25, Elliott considered leaving the profession. Losing Davis, Perry and Chandler in the middle of their college careers, with so much life left to live, sent him spiraling. Too many young men lost too young.

“I just kept thinking, ‘I can’t invest in these young men and visualize what their lives could be like when they’re 30 years old, and then, boom, they’re gone. It’s too hard,” Elliott said. “Even in those moments when you’ve got to speak at those funerals, you don’t know what to say, and now you’re doing it again.

“It was not necessarily running from the situation as much as, ‘I just don’t know if I can do this anymore.'”

Elliott and Williams talked at length in the weeks and months that followed.

“He’s not the only one that contemplated that, and when you care deeply about young people, and something like that happens, it’s normal and human to fight the urge to walk away,” Williams said. “That’s where for me, and I’m sure for Tony, too, faith kicks in because there is a bigger picture. There is a purpose.”

Virginia canceled its final two regular-season games in 2022. Players began to hit the transfer portal. But others opted to stay, including Bettridge, offensive linemen Noah Josey, Jack Witmer and McKale Boley and defensive tackle Jahmeer Carter — all starters today. In all, 24 players on the 2022 team remain a part of the program.

“A lot of guys maybe thought that we were broken, and thought that it was going to affect us, but it actually brought us together, and it made us even stronger,” Bettridge said. “I want to be known as someone who carried that legacy, and not someone who jumped ship when things got hard. Because hard times don’t last, but strong people do.”

The months passed, and Elliott tried to build a roster, while figuring out his own path forward. Soon, it would be time to return to practice, to establish a new normal. That first day back on the field was hard. But he got the confirmation he needed as he watched his players return to football for the first time in four months when spring practice started the following March.

“If God asked us on the front end: This is what you’re walking into. Do you still want to go through that door? Nobody would sign up for that,” Elliott says. “So, God has to put you in that situation.

“I did choose to come here. When we pray for things, we’ve got to take everything that comes with it, and that’s when I got it. When we got back on the grass, that’s really when it hit me like, ‘All right, this is right where you’re supposed to be.’ Now, get out of your feelings and go focus on what you need to do for everybody else.”

The self-reflection also changed Elliott as a person and as a coach. He says he is more empathetic, a better husband and a better father. After the tragedy, Elliott made sure to open up with his players more. There was no shame in talking about feelings.

“My method of dealing with the things that I dealt with when I was younger, it’s probably not the most healthy and the most productive, but it was what you did,” Elliott said. “You didn’t talk about it much, you just sucked it up and you went through it. But times are different. I’m trying to find that balance of old-school/new-school just to be able to reach and help.”

Nor was there shame in admitting the way he approached his job in Year 1 was simply not going to work.

“When I first came in, young, overzealous, not understanding the job, just trying to do everything so fast, and not really recognizing where everybody else was at, just trying to tell everybody to come meet me where I am,” Elliott said. “I now meet them where they are, and say, ‘Let’s elevate together.'”

ELLIOTT HAD A quote from Hall of Fame coach Bill Walsh placed on the wall in the weight room of the new football facility:

Champions behave like champions before they’re champions; they have a winning standard of performance before they are winners.

At Clemson, Elliott saw a program transform from an underachiever to a perennial national title contender. But he and Williams both knew the fix at Virginia would not be quick; the Cavaliers hadn’t won a conference title since 1995.

Elliott refused to run players off. Anybody on scholarship who has wanted to stay with the program has always been allowed to stay.

There were glimmers of hope in the first couple of years: a ranked win over North Carolina in 2023; another over Pitt in 2024. One-score losses often bled into more losses. Last season felt like Virginia was on the verge of a breakthrough after a 4-1 start, but the Cavaliers finished with losses in six of their final seven games to finish 5-7. Outsiders may have thought that was enough to put Elliott on the hot seat. But Williams never considered making a change. She knew Elliott was trying to do something more difficult than just winning football games.

“When you see people who care deeply showing up every day, when everything around them is pushing them to not show up, for me — that requires patience,” she said. “I understand how difficult it is to focus on a game when you’re traumatized by tragedy.”

All the while, Elliott was helping build a foundation for what was to come. So when offseason workouts began in January, the seniors who had been through the ups and the downs, and the loss of their teammates, took ownership. The transfer players came in and fit in so well that it was hard to tell who had been at Virginia for a few months, and who had been there for a few years.

“Everyone we brought in from the transfer portal, they had the same goal coming here — to win a championship,” said Carter, a sixth-year senior. “I think that showcases the culture change of the program.

“Because maybe a few years ago, you probably wouldn’t have heard that coming from somebody from UVA. Now here we are. That can actually be accomplished.”

The turning point came on a Friday night at home against Florida State. Walking into the stadium, Elliott felt at home, playing in a big national spotlight game, the stakes high. It was just like things were seven years prior at Clemson.

Virginia pulled out a 46-38 double-overtime victory, the fans storming the field almost instantly after the final play ended. Virginia had lost so many close games since he arrived, but Elliott never lost faith that night that his team would win.

Bettridge sat on a bench with his parents and girlfriend and allowed himself a moment to take in the scene.

“It was emotional just to realize what we’ve been through in four years here, and just to see what’s capable, and to know that there’s more,” Bettridge said.

The following week, Virginia played another overtime game, this time beating Louisville thanks to two defensive scores. Elliott texted Perry’s mom, Happy, after the game. “We had a little special help,” he said.

Maybe so. But Virginia is also helping itself this season, making plays when they matter most to pull out three overtime wins, becoming one of only eight teams in college football history with three overtime victories in the same season.

“There’s been teams in the past here that I’ve been a part of that found ways to lose,” Josey said. “This team is different. This team finds ways to win. This team finds ways to grind it out, tooth and nail, whatever it has to be. When we’re in those moments where in past years we might have faltered, we’re not this year. That’s the big difference.”

Now that Virginia has made the investment, there is no turning back. Over the last two months, the school has received one $1 million donation and another anonymous multimillion-dollar commitment.

Says Williams: “You’ve improved the personnel, you’ve improved the operating budget, you’ve improved the facilities. You’ve committed to rev share and NIL. If you stop, then you’ve wasted years of building.”

There is no stopping as far as Elliott is concerned. With each day and each win, there are always reminders about how far they have come, and how much they have lost. Elliott has made it a point to tell all incoming players about Davis, Chandler and Perry.

The three players are honored every year at a home game designated “UVA Strong Day.” This year, on that day, Virginia beat William & Mary 55-16. In his postgame news conference, Elliott noted the 55 points are the most Virginia has scored in a game since a 55-15 rout of Abilene Christian in November 2020. Davis and Perry each scored a touchdown in that game.

Josey thinks about them every time he runs out of the tunnel. He drops to a knee and prays for them and their families. When Bettridge lines up to kick toward the closed side of Scott Stadium, he sees a more permanent reminder: 1-15-41 on the video ribbon board. He uses that as his target point as he lines up to kick, a reminder he is playing for something bigger than himself.

“I’m hopeful that we are bringing joy and hope and a little bit of peace to their families,” Elliott said. “I believe that when we have success, they’re right there with us.”

The first month of the 2025-26 NHL season has offered its share of surprises, from unexpected playoff contenders to teams failing to meet their lofty preseason expectations.

The same goes for NHL players, some of whom have started the season at a torrid pace and others who have been statistical disasters.

Here’s a look at 10 shockingly good performances to start the season … and five shockingly bad ones that hopefully won’t continue on too much longer.

Shockingly good

2025-26 stats: 16 GP | 11 G | 15 A

This season has been two years in the making for Carlsson.

After the Ducks selected him second overall in 2023, Anaheim applied load management to his rookie season, when Carlsson played 55 games. His sophomore campaign saw him start to fulfill his potential with 20 goals and 25 assists in 76 games. But now we’re seeing Carlsson unleashed: 26 points (11 goals, 15 assists) through 16 games for the Ducks, powering them to the top of the Pacific Division in the first month of the season.

What’s changed? The coach, for one. Joel Quenneville has helped turn the Ducks into a puck-possession juggernaut, and Carlsson’s offensive explosion is a result of it. So far this season, the Ducks are generating 58.7% of the shot attempts and 59.6% of the scoring chances with big Leo on the ice. That’s way up over the average of the last two seasons for Carlsson in shot attempts (48.7%) and scoring chances (48%). He has also scored nine points on the Ducks’ power play, which has caught fire after being the worst in the league last season.

“Leo’s really taken off,” Anaheim GM Pat Verbeek told ESPN this week. “I think with the younger guys, Joel preaches it every single day: Puck possession, hang onto it and if we lose it, we got to get it back fast. I think that has resonated well and the guys have taken to it. They’ve been executing and they’ve been getting rewarded for that.”

2025-26 stats: 16 GP | 4 G | 5 A

Unfortunately for a franchise seeking its first playoff berth since “Fast Five” was in theaters, there once again haven’t been many bright spots for the Buffalo Sabres to start this season. Josh Doan is a glaring exception, with four goals and five assists in 16 games.

The son of former NHL great Shane Doan was acquired from Utah in the JJ Peterka trade back in June. Doan had seven goals and 12 assists in 51 games as a rookie for the Hockey Club last season in limited ice time (13:31 per game). He’s getting more ice time (15:28) with the Sabres, and putting more shots on goal (9.6 per 60 minutes) than he did last season (7.3) at 5-on-5. He’s also getting way more power-play time than he did in Utah as well.

Doan is a solid two-way player who is building his case for an expanded role this season.

2025-26 stats: 12 GP | 2.46 GAA | .923 SV%

For years, Knight was the goalie of the future for the Florida Panthers. But inconsistency, health matters and the stubborn refusal of playoff hero Sergei Bobrovsky to abdicate the throne saw the Panthers trade him to Chicago in the Seth Jones deal.

He was fine last season in 15 starts for Chicago, going 5-8-1. He’s been a revelation through 12 games so far this season for the improved Blackhawks, with a .923 save percentage and a 2.46 goals-against average. Entering Wednesday night, Knight led the NHL with 13.3 goals saved above expected.

While new coach Jeff Blashill is trying to improve his young team with an aggressive system in the defensive zone, the results aren’t quite there yet. But Knight has been there every time they’ve needed him, dramatically decreasing the average number of high-danger goals the Blackhawks have given up compared to last season.

2025-26 stats: 15 GP | 11 G | 7 A

When the Panthers needed a hero in the Stanley Cup Final, Brad Marchand responded with the best playoff series of his life with six goals in six games. When the Panthers needed a hero to start this season – with superstars Aleksander Barkov and Matthew Tkachuk lost to injury – Marchand responded with one of the best opening months of his NHL career.

The 37-year-old winger has 11 goals in 15 games for the Panthers, including a five-game goal streak he continued in a 3-2 win over the Vegas Golden Knights. He has 18 points in that span with seven assists, having played with his usual linemates Anton Lundell and Eetu Luostarinen as well as up with Carter Verhaeghe and Sam Bennett.

“His hands are so quick,” Florida coach Paul Maurice said after the Vegas game. “He’s a good player when you coached against him for years, but you get on the ice in practice and see those goals, it’s just exceptional.”

Down two key players, Marchand’s efforts are keeping the Panthers afloat until at least Tkachuk can return in December or January. He has been their MVP. No wonder GM Bill Zito signed Marchand through 2030-31.

2025-26 stats: 17 GP | 9 G | 7 A

Ah, the halcyon days of the 2022-23 season. The Devils eliminated the New York Rangers to advance to the second round of the playoffs. Jack Hughes played 78 games. And Dawson Mercer had a breakout season with 56 points in 82 games, including 27 goals.

Mercer was unable to build on that offensive explosion over the next two seasons, dipping to 33 points in 2023-24 and then 36 points last season with 19 goals. He was inconstant and ineffective, unable to maintain a spot in the team’s top six next to center Nico Hischier. But he put in the work during the offseason and now it’s hard to imagine Mercer not playing in the top six after a stellar start.

Skating the majority of the time with Hischier and Timo Meier, Mercer had nine goals and seven assists in his first 17 games, skating to a team-best plus-9 rating. He’s earned his top-six minutes with strong efforts in all zones.

Yes, Mercer put in the work during the offseason to improve his game. But as coach Sheldon Keefe has noted, it does also help that Mercer didn’t miss a chunk of camp like he did last season during restricted free-agent contract talks.

2025-26 stats: 16 GP | 5 G | 7 A

Islanders fans knew they were getting a charisma cannon in Schaefer. The 18-year-old defenseman had displayed an infectious enthusiasm since being drafted first overall in June, providing a vital vibe shift for a franchise desperately trying to locate a personality after years of Lou Lamoriello homogeny.

What those fans might not have anticipated: That Schaefer could jump right into the NHL and be one of its most effective defensemen through the first month of the season. Schaefer has 12 points in 16 games for the Islanders, skating 22:13 per game. Six of those points have come on the power play, which has gone from second worst in the NHL last season to 22nd overall. New York scores 57.8% of the goals when Schaefer is on the ice.

He’s been anything but sheltered for the Islanders, starting just 53% of his shifts in the offensive zone. With a stick-tap to Bo Horvat‘s incredible goal-scoring start (12 goals in 16 games), Schaefer’s instant impact has been one of the more pleasant surprises for the Islanders and the NHL.

2025-26 stats: 18 GP | 11 G | 1 A

Will Kiefer Sherwood finish the season with 57 goals, based on his current scoring pace, despite previously tapping out as a career high of 19 goals last season? Will he continue to shoot 29.7% for the Canucks? Will be continue to battle the likes of Nathan MacKinnon and Sidney Crosby for the Rocket Richard Trophy, as is his current status?

The answer to all of these is likely “no” followed by a bemused chuckle, but that these questions can even be asked at the moment is why Kiefer Sherwood’s season is so astonishing. The Canucks winger has started the season with 11 goals in 18 games for 12 points overall. Yes, that’s correct: Every single point Kiefer Sherwood has scored this season has been a goal — save for one assist on a Brock Boeser goal on Nov. 8. And it was a primary assist, no less!

This video game glitch of a start for Sherwood has enchanted Vancouver fans, building on his cult hero status. (Witness @DailyWoody, which combines on- and off-ice coverage with Kiefer Sherwood memes.) It’s probably important to mention that Sherwood is in a contract year ahead of unrestricted free agency. Cha-ching.

2025-26 stats: 15 GP | 0 G | 6 A

When Alex Pietrangelo announced he was stepping away from the NHL due to rehab a prolonged hip injury, the Golden Knights knew they’d need more from Shea Theodore. That he’d answer the bell isn’t shocking, as Theodore has been the second-best defenseman on the Knights since Pietrangelo arrived in 2020. It’s how incredibly well he’s played in that expanded role.

Theodore, 30, has six points in his first 15 games, having his ice time jump from 22 minutes per game last season to 24:16 on average this season. But his underlying numbers are incredible, despite taking on tougher assignments: Vegas is averaging 0.89 goals against per 60 minutes at 5-on-5 with Theodore on the ice. Only two other defensemen in the league are averaging under a goal per 60 minutes (min. 200 minutes): Matt Roy of the Washington Capitals and Will Borgen of the New York Rangers.

Theodore and partner Brayden McNabb aren’t setting the world ablaze offensively, but they’ve been a good as it gets as a shutdown pair.

2025-26 stats: 14 GP | 2.26 GAA | .913 SV%

The Avalanche have started the season 11-1-5 for 27 points, best in the NHL. Yet starting goaltender Mackenzie Blackwood has played in only two of these games, as he was still recovering from surgery in May to correct a lower-body issue. When the starter goes down, it’s up to the backup to step in and hold down the fort. Wedgewood has gone well beyond that call of duty.

The 33-year-old journeyman — the Avs are his fifth NHL team since 2021 — has a 10-1-2 record with a .913 save percentage and a 2.26 goals-against average. Granted, when a team is hitting the scoreboard with four goals per game on average, a goalie can breathe a bit easier. But Wedgewood has also saved 6.0 goals above expected this season in back of the Colorado defense.

Blackwood returned to the Avs this week, which means Wedgewood could see his action decrease. But when Colorado thinks back to the .794 points-percentage season that propelled them at the start, the job Wedgewood’s done is a key reason for it.

(Stick tap to defenseman Sam Malinski, another Avalanche surprise early in the season.)

2025-26 stats: 10 GP | 2.15 GAA | .919 SV%

The Flyers looking for goaltending stability is a tale as old as time. After three goalies combined for a .872 team save percentage last season, worst in the NHL, GM Daniel Briere signed one of the few decent free-agent options on the market in Vladar to a two-year deal. The 28-year-old goalie had spent four seasons in Calgary as the crease-mate of Jacob Markstrom and then rookie Dustin Wolf. His stats weren’t always stellar — .895 save parentage in 100 games with the Flames — but he was a gamer.

Now, he’s arguably the Flyers’ MVP early in the season.

Philly is 8-5-3 through 16 games under Rick Tocchet, sitting in a wild-card spot entering Wednesday night. Vladar won six of those games against three losses, with a .919 save percentage and six goals saved above expected.

Shockingly bad

2025-26 stats: 16 GP | 3 G | 0 A

Kasper, the eighth overall pick in 2022, showed strong potential as a rookie last season with 19 goals and 18 assists in 77 games for the Red Wings. Strong enough that Detroit had him slotted with Alex DeBrincat and Patrick Kane on their second scoring line. But that trio didn’t click, generating just 1.82 goals per 60 minutes together. Kasper’s lack of production was a huge factor there, with just three goals and no assists in 16 games so far this season, skating to a minus-6.

Coach Todd McLellan demoted him to third-line winger recently.

“His play hasn’t matched what we expected from him,” said the coach, who said Kasper hasn’t shown the same battle level as last season and is now in his own head. “It happens to a lot of second or third-year players. Marco’s going through that right now.”

2025-26 stats: 9 GP | 3.52 GAA | .861 SV%

To be clear, there are other contenders for the most disappointing goaltender so far this season. Jordan Binnington of the St. Louis Blues has gotten more attention for the puck he tried to steal than the ones that he’s stopped. Ottawa Senators goalie Linus Ullmark is last in the NHL in goals saved above expected according to Money Puck, with minus-7.9 through 14 games.

The difference between those two and Montembeault, however, is that a good portion of their pain is team-related. Ullmark’s save percentage isn’t far off from crease-mate Leevi Merilainen. Ditto Binnington’s with Joel Hofer, who has arguably had a worse season so far. But as good as rookie Jakub Dobes has been for Montreal (.920 save percentage through seven games), that’s how bad as Montembeault has been for them.

The 29-year-old goaltender is 4-4-1 through nine games with an .861 save percentage. He’s second to Ullmark for worst goals saved above expected (minus-7.1). Analytically, he’s been the worst 5-on-5 goalie in the league so far this season for netminders with his workload, and has the second-worst wins above replacement in the NHL.

(Please note that all three goalies from Canada’s 4 Nations Face-Off roster — Binnington, Montembeault and Vegas’s Adin Hill — are all off to lousy starts this season as they try to defend their Olympic roster spots from goalies such as Logan Thompson and Darcy Kuemper, who have both been outstanding to start the season. Curious, isn’t it?)

2025-26 stats: 16 GP | 3 G | 6 A

Point was named to Team Canada’s preliminary Olympic roster back in June. His start has been so mediocre — by his standards — that at least one Canadian columnist lamented that Point has a roster spot that could be otherwise given to Connor Bedard or another player off to a better season.

That is, of course, absurd. Point is one of the NHL’s elite, who has scored more goals over the last three seasons (139) than Nathan MacKinnon (125). That established, it’s been an underwhelming first 16 games for Point: three goals, six assists and skating to a minus-11 rating for a player who was a plus-17 last season.

One issue is his shot generation. Point’s shot attempts (8.5 per 60 minutes) are down off his two-season average (12.8) at 5-on-5, which has led to his shots on goal (5.6) also declining from that average (6.8).

Again, he should be fine. Skating with Nikita Kucherov, those numbers will trend up soon. But it has not been the strongest start.

2025-26 stats: 18 GP | 3 G | 1 A

For most of his career, goals were never really hard to come by for Stamkos. Which is one reason the first 18 games of his season with the Predators have been nightmarish for the 35-year-old. He has three goals so far this season. That’s a 14-goal pace in an 82-game season for a player that’s scored 585 goals in his career.

He’s trying to keep his optimism up.

“Something you learn as you get older or go through certain experiences is the negative stuff never helps,” he said Monday. “And we all do it, no matter what aspect in life when things aren’t going well. It’s the negative self-talk. It’s the ‘poor me’ kind of card, but it never works. You sink in deeper.”

But this start for Stamkos — three goals, one assist in 18 games — has already sparked speculation that Nashville will approach him with the idea of trading him, assuming someone else believes all Stamkos needs is a change in scenery.

2025-26 stats: 18 GP | 0 G | 4 A

Weegar has been a solid offensive contributor over the last five seasons, including 52 and 47 points for the Flames in the last two campaigns. So it’s a bit jarring to see him start with just four assists in 18 games for Calgary, two of them at even strength and two of them at 5-on-5. The Flames are averaging 1.32 goals per 60 minutes with Weegar on the ice at even strength so far this season.

While offense has been a primary problem for the Flames, as they rank last in the NHL in goals per game, it’s been a total systems breakdown in Calgary. That’s clear from Weegar’s minus-17 this season, for a player who’s only finished in the negative once during his 10-season NHL career. He’s played at least 10 minutes with seven defensive partners this season as the Flames try to find a winning mix.

Whether players are struggling or surging at the start, the key phrase here is “at the start.” There’s still plenty of season left to go to erase these bad vibe — or to experience a reversal of fortunes for the early-season stars.

Of all of this year’s MLB awards races, the most interesting debate surrounds the American League MVP. That debate is moot — the balloting is long over, and the winner will be announced Thursday night — but it remains a classic conversation about two of this past season’s best performers.

With all due respect to perennial candidate Jose Ramirez — once again an MVP finalist — the winner is going to be the Seattle Mariners‘ Cal Raleigh or the New York Yankees‘ Aaron Judge. Whatever your opinion on that selection, there is no wrong answer. This is the perfect encapsulation of pretty much every debate about the MVP award we’ve had over the decades.

My AXE system for rating players is built off of the leading bottom-line metrics with the hope of settling this kind of thing. Often, it’s as much a sorting mechanism as it is a definitive answer, but if there is a clear division between players, AXE is usually on target.

2025 AL AXE LEADERS

1. Aaron Judge, Yankees (164)
2. Cal Raleigh, Mariners (150)
3. Bobby Witt Jr., Royals (145)
4. Jose Ramirez, Guardians (138)
5. Julio Rodriguez, Mariners (134)
6. Jeremy Pena, Astros (132)
7. George Springer, Blue Jays (131)
8. Byron Buxton, Twins (129)
9. Maikel Garcia, Royals (128)
10. Gunnar Henderson, Orioles (128)

There is a clear separation between Judge and everyone else in the AL. So, it’s an easy call, right? For all Raleigh did that was historic, Judge has the upper hand in the metrics, and the Mariners’ star just picked the wrong year to shuffle the record books.

And yet it still doesn’t seem so clear-cut. This is just the sort of paradox that makes me want to dive deeper and figure out whether we can arrive at a rational explanation for what will always be an imperfect process.

Who will win, and what will that ultimately tell us about what voters value?

Let’s sift through the arguments, each of which views the Raleigh vs. Judge debate through a different prism and all of which have held various degrees of sway during baseball’s MVP era, which dates more than a century.

The ‘He’s won before’ argument

We begin with this one because it’s not a literal criterion — but it used to be, and it can quickly end an argument.

Before the BBWAA assumed the MVP selection reins in 1931, the process was a bit chaotic. Both leagues gave out an award, the AL starting in 1922 and the NL in 1924. (And even before that, there was a proto version — the Chalmers Award, which was given out from 1911 to 1914.)

The criteria between the leagues were not compatible: The AL would not allow repeat winners, but the NL didn’t care. Though Babe Ruth should have racked up five or six MVP awards during that span, he won only one — in 1923. Rogers Hornsby won twice on the NL side. As with many old-time practices now viewed from the perspective of the present, it’s weird.

Anyway, this would settle the Raleigh-Judge debate because Judge wouldn’t be eligible. Heck, he wouldn’t have been eligible last year, either. That would have been good news for Bobby Witt Jr. fans.

The trad-stats argument

The irony about the backlash you sometimes encounter over the use of advanced metrics is that sportswriters have always relied on numbers to make their arguments. It’s just that the numbers they used to use were too often cherry-picked or flat-out misleading. For the longest time, some of those same commentators decried the new numbers by citing the old ones. That kind of thing has largely been phased out, thankfully.

When you look at the more egregious MVP mistakes from the past, they often resulted from the use of the wrong numbers. Batting average and RBIs tended to be overvalued, though in fairness to the voters, teams themselves made the same mistake for decades. On the pitching side, wins were the be-all and end-all, which also sometimes encroached on the MVP debates.

Let’s take 1979’s AL voting as an example. And I’m going to use WAR to shorthand this review. The debate should have been glorious:

1979 AL WAR LEADERS

1. Fred Lynn, Red Sox (8.9)
2. George Brett, Royals (8.6)
3. Darrell Porter, Royals (7.6)
4. (tie) Jerry Koosman, Twins (7.2)
Dennis Eckersley, Red Sox (7.2)

Eck! Lest we forget, was a very good starter before he revolutionized the closer role under Tony La Russa. But we digress … who do you have, Lynn or Brett? What about Porter, sneaking in as a catcher, as Raleigh is doing this year?

1979 AL MVP VOTING LEADERS (with WAR totals)

1. Don Baylor, Angels (3.7)
2. Ken Singleton, Orioles (5.3)
3. George Brett, Royals (8.6)
4. Fred Lynn, Red Sox (8.9)
5. Jim Rice, Red Sox (6.4)

The winner: Don Baylor, who finished with 3.7 WAR, though no one knew it at the time because WAR was decades away from being invented. Baylor hit .296 with 36 homers (fourth in the AL) and led the league with 139 RBIs and 120 runs. And he did this with the Angels, who emerged from baseball’s back pages to win their first AL West title.

Granted, it’s a lot of RBIs. But Baylor led the AL in plate appearances with runners on base. His RBI percentage (19.5) was not among the AL leaders and was well behind, among others, Lynn (22.9%) and Brett (20.3%). Heck, Baylor didn’t even think he should have been MVP.

“There’s no doubt he should be considered as the MVP and Comeback Player of the Year,” Baylor told the Sporting News at the time. He was talking about teammate Bobby Grich (6.0 WAR). “He has had one helluva season.”

This, friends, is why we needed advanced metrics.

But let’s shift into a 1979 mindset and consider this year’s AL race.

Judge: .331 (led AL), 53 homers, 114 RBIs, 137 runs (led AL)

Raleigh: .247, 60 homers (led AL), 125 RBIs (led AL), 110 runs

Four and a half decades ago, there would have been much ado about Raleigh’s average. Of course, the 60 homers would have fallen one short of Roger Maris’ then-single-season record, and his chase would have entranced America over the last couple of months of the season.

Who would have won? I don’t know! But I’m guessing Raleigh’s near-record home run total and league-leading RBI count — as a catcher — would have held sway. Voters loved catchers with lots of RBIs (see Thurman Munson, 1976), though that didn’t help Porter (112 RBIs) get over the top in 1979. But Judge’s huge edge in batting average would have earned him plenty of support.

The ‘Where would they have been without him?’ argument

This gets at the semantic argument some have over the MVP award, the one in which people over-parse the actual words — Most Valuable Player.

Look, it’s just a label. Don’t overthink it. The voters are told: “There is no clear-cut definition of what Most Valuable means.” So put away your Merriam-Webster and save your argument about whether the MVP describes “valuable” or “best.” There is much more nuance and context involved, as there should be.

We can use WAR to reimagine the respective rosters without Raleigh or Judge on them in hopes of gaining a window into where their teams would have been without their epic seasons for those who do choose to use ‘value’ more literally.

Let’s assume in both cases that their time would have been filled by replacement-level players, just to keep things nice and simple. That leaves us here:

Yankees

• With Judge: 94-68, tied for first in AL East

• Without Judge: 85-77, third in AL East, no playoffs

Mariners

• With Raleigh: 90-72, first in AL West

• Without Raleigh: 83-79, second in AL West, no playoffs

Since Judge had the higher WAR (using the Baseball Reference version), the Yankees take the bigger hit in losing him than the Mariners would in losing Raleigh. But this quick and dirty method doesn’t really do justice to Raleigh since his subtraction would potentially have a big impact on the Seattle pitching staff.

Let’s call this one a draw.

The ‘Best player on the best team’ argument

We’re back into semantics here, so let’s dispatch this one quickly. For one thing, this generally comes into play when there is a deserving MVP candidate from a non-playoff team, as opposed to a solid but lesser candidate from a winner.

The classic case was the 1947 AL MVP race, when Joe DiMaggio edged Ted Williams by a single point — 202 to 201 — in the balloting results. DiMaggio hit .315 with 20 homers, 97 RBIs and 4.7 WAR for the pennant-winning Yankees. Williams rolled up 9.5 WAR while winning the AL Triple Crown — .343, 32 homers, 114 RBIs.

The only point in DiMaggio’s favor was the Yankees’ first-place finish. Still, Williams would have won if not for one voter leaving the “Splinter” off the ballot entirely. The identity of the suspect voter remains a historical mystery.

Nevertheless, the argument for DiMaggio simply would have been that he was the best player on the best team. A number of questionable MVP winners through the years can be summed up that way.

I’m not sure there is a winner in this category between Judge and Raleigh. Both were the best players on their respective teams, though Raleigh emerged as that player during the season, while Julio Rodriguez would have held that distinction entering the campaign. (And might hold entering next season as well.) Judge has been the unquestioned star of the Yankees for years now.

But which team was best? The Yankees had a better record and a much better run differential but were a wild-card entrant. The Mariners won their division and earned a first-round bye. So, we’ll call this one a draw as well.

Besides, if you want to get really strict with the language and fixate on the concept of “best” then there’s no contest. You don’t really earn that distinction in one year; it takes multiple years of excellence. Judge’s 25.1 WAR over the past three years far outstrips second-place Witt (20.8). Raleigh is at 15.5.

“MVP” and the “best player” are different concepts. Judge is the AL’s best player. That argument is easy. This year’s MVP? Not so simple.

The metrics argument

This one swings toward Judge. That’s illustrated by the AXE leaderboard we began with. But let’s look at the subcomponents of the system to illustrate why it’s like that.

Baseball Reference WAR

1. Judge (9.7)
2. Raleigh (7.4)
3. Witt (7.1)

FanGraphs WAR

1. Judge (10.1)
2. Raleigh (9.1)
3. Witt (8.0)

Both leading versions of WAR favor Judge, with the Baseball Reference version seeing it as a runaway. The differences between the systems often baffles consumers of baseball analytics and, I would argue, undermines the general acceptance of the WAR framework. (And let’s not even get started on the formulations of WAR on the pitching side.)

The FanGraphs version sees it so much tighter because of how it incorporates defense — actual fielding and in positional value. The latter is hard to articulate, but intuitively we know that someone who caught 119 games carried more defensive responsibility than someone who played 95 games in right field. (Both players logged lots of DH time as well.)

In terms of actual fielding performance, Raleigh is assessed four runs below average from fielding in the Baseball Reference system; he gets 11.4 runs above average at FanGraphs, which is very generous with crediting catchers for framing pitches. So, whether you believe the Baseball Reference or the FanGraphs comparison in WAR is more accurate comes down to which defensive assessment you want to believe. Either way, Judge has the edge.

It’s the same story when you get to probability added categories, which also feed the AXE formulation. I view it like this: WAR tells you the sum total of what a player did, but probability added tells you about the context in which he did it.

Judge wins both categories. He led the AL in win probability added (plus-5.6) and championship probability added (plus-4.9%). Raleigh ranks high but still behind: fourth in WPA (plus-3.7) and second in CPA (plus-3.0%).

I doubt there are many MVP voters who see the balloting as something that should simply reflect the WAR leaderboard. But there are certainly fans who see it that way. (And plenty who don’t believe WAR should be considered at all.) Well, if you want to make WAR the be-all, end-all … Judge is the easy choice.

The narrative argument

In my awards preview, I cast my vote in favor of Raleigh. This was just a vote written into an article — I did not have an MVP vote this year — but I agonized over it just the same.

I agonized over it because it’s a choice that runs counter to my instincts and values as a baseball analyst. I have always leaned on metrics in my analysis and did so long before the practice became mainstream. I had nothing to do with the creation of WAR, but I first advocated for a win-based bottom-line metric more than 20 years ago. I think both versions of WAR need improvement and even more importantly, I’d like to see the discord between the systems ironed out. But I’m still an advocate for having such a measure.

The previous sections lead to the conclusion that Judge should win, and he very well might do just that. Through each prism, either Judge wins handily, as he does in the metrics, or it’s too close to call. So why did I end up favoring Raleigh?

It’s the narrative.

When it comes to metrics-based comparison, you have to always acknowledge that there is a gray area. These are numbers that read as very precise, especially when they are carried out to decimal points. But they are not. These systems have choices made in their construction. Rational choices, but choices, nonetheless. That’s opposed to, say, batting average. While lacking, average is more precise than WAR as it measures an observable thing: hits as a portion of at-bats. WAR and win probability just don’t work like that.

For position players, the estimates for run creation are very good, but even those lack context. In fact, that’s kind of the point. But when it comes to handing out something like an MVP award, it’s not always about establishing a neutral context for comparison or creating a baseline for future performance. It’s about describing what actually happened.

Intangibles play into it but can’t be overemphasized. Raleigh is an acknowledged leader on the Mariners in the grand tradition of catchers as the spiritual hearts of a ballclub. But Judge is the Yankees’ captain, an honor that ranks among the most prestigious in the sport. Both of these players are exemplary big leaguers and team leaders.

For me, Raleigh has the better 2025 story. Judge, as great as he was, has done this before. He was better offensively in 2024, though both seasons were historically elite. He posted solid defensive numbers but was only a right fielder and, late in the season when he battled an elbow injury, he couldn’t even do that. In the end, Judge just put up another Aaron Judge season, which is itself an incredible accomplishment. Statistically, he was the best player in the league.

On the other hand, Raleigh did things no one has ever done before, and in baseball, historical context means a lot. The most basic fact is this: We can debate the marginal value of Raleigh hitting just seven more homers than Judge. But those seven homers gave him 60 — an unthinkable figure that’s been reached by just six other players (including, of course, Judge).

Raleigh entered the season as an established, top-tier player but his career high in homers was 34. He topped that on the Fourth of July. The story was and remains amazing, and it captivated us all season.

Before this season, the record for homers by a primary catcher was the 48 that Kansas City’s Salvador Perez hit in 2021. Raleigh went past that on Aug 24. The record for homers by a switch-hitter was the 54 hit by Mickey Mantle — Mickey Mantle! — in 1961. Raleigh passed that on Sept. 16. Raleigh hit these historic benchmarks while leading the league in RBIs and catching at a top-tier level for a division champion, for whom he was the team leader.

And yet, while I ended up favoring the historic nature of Raleigh’s season over the routine brilliance of Judge, I have to admit: Had I been handed an actual ballot, I’m not sure I could have pulled the trigger for Raleigh, mostly because I’m not sure how I could have justified it by underlining “narrative” as I have done here.

But you know what? This is great stuff. This is why we hand out MVP awards, to parse and dissect and pick apart the résumés of the game’s best players. This kind of debate is great for the game.

Tonight, either Aaron Judge or Cal Raleigh will be crowned as the winner of the 2025 American League MVP trophy. Make no mistake though — there is no real loser in this competition, and in the end, thanks to them, we all win.