Connect with us

Published

on

The breach of the Nova Kakhovka dam is most worrying for what it says about the mind of Russian President Vladimir Putin and his generals – and their capacity for dangerous escalation.

It takes the war in an even more perilous direction.

The military impact is likely to be temporary. Armies blow dams or use them to unleash floodwaters for tactical advantage.

The Soviets and the Germans both did it in the Second World War.

But the gains generally do not hold. Water drains away, the ground dries out.

Warning of ‘grave consequences’ after dam blast – live updates

Ben Barry, a land war senior fellow at the International Institute of Strategic Studies, said: “It could set back any assault river crossing for a couple of weeks.

“Difficult to tell for how long. But only once the water subsides and the ground dries out will Ukraine have the same chance of a river crossing as it did before the flood.”

And he believes an attack across the swollen Dnipro is not out of the question even now.

“It’s not impossible to do an assault river crossing across a river that’s in full flood. It’s just more difficult,” he said.

Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player

Kherson main square ‘awash with water’

The Russians have blamed the Ukrainians for the attack, but most analysts have dismissed that as unlikely to impossible.

The Russians have a proven track record for accusing the other side of doing what they have themselves done. And the Russians have most to gain. Up to a point.

Read more:
Satellite images reveal scale of dam damage
Five environmental impacts of dam collapse
‘42,000 people at risk’ from dam flooding

The breach benefits the Russians by reducing the length of the frontline it has to defend and allowing it to focus attention in the east, but not indefinitely.

And it has blowback for the Russians too, flooding some of the defensive positions they have dug in on the southern bank since retreating there last August.

So temporary gain, some self-harm and all the opprobrium that comes with carrying out yet another war crime.

Where is the margin in that for Vladimir Putin? It looks rash and premature. A disproportionate and irrational act.

But that may be the point.

Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player

Ukraine dam attack explained

Russian president ‘excels in scare tactics’

In war, it can pay to do the crazy thing, to look unhinged and keep your enemy guessing at your next act of madness.

Putin excels in scare tactics and knows the dam blast makes him look more dangerous.

If Russia was irresponsible enough to blow the dam and unleash such destruction for limited advantage, what will it do next, planners in Kyiv and the West will be asking.

The fear now is for the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant. The dam breach endangers the supply of water to its cooling systems. Could Russia now sabotage the plant to change the course of the war?

The destruction of the dam undoubtedly changes the risk calculus in handling Russia, but correctly calibrating it will need cool heads so it is not overdone.

Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player

Ukraine war: Major dam attack

Putin has, after all, indulged in nuclear sabre-rattling for much of this war.

It has weighed on the minds of Ukraine’s allies and made them more timid in arming Kyiv.

But so far analysts say his nuclear bluster is just that.

FILE PHOTO: A view shows the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant in the course of Russia-Ukraine conflict outside Enerhodar in the Zaporizhzhia region, Russian-controlled Ukraine, March 29, 2023. REUTERS/Alexander Ermochenko//File Photo
Image:
The Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant. Pic: File

The nuclear option

There is no sign of Putin starting the lengthy process of bringing tactical warheads out of storage and deploying them.

And any disaster at Zaporizhzhia threatens Russia most.

Click to subscribe to Ukraine War Diaries wherever you get your podcasts

The prevailing winds would be most likely to carry the fallout east across the Russian border.

The Russians have shown stunning disregard for the welfare of their own soldiers but a radioactive cloud over their defensive positions and logistics lines would be challenging to say the least.

What we can say for sure is this war has swung again in a more unpredictable direction and the longer it goes on, the more such lurches are likely to happen.

Continue Reading

World

Twelve British soldiers injured in major traffic pile-up in Estonia – local media

Published

on

By

Twelve British soldiers injured in major traffic pile-up in Estonia - local media

Twelve British soldiers were injured in a major traffic pile-up in Estonia, close to the border with Russia, local media have reported.

Eight of the troops – part of a major NATO mission to deter Russian aggression – were airlifted back to the UK for hospital treatment on Sunday after the incident, which happened in snowy conditions on Friday, it is understood.

Five of these personnel have since been discharged with three still being kept in the military wing of the Queen Elizabeth Hospital in Birmingham.

The crash happened at an intersection at around 5pm on Friday when the troops were travelling in three minibuses back to their base at Tapa.

Two civilian cars, driven by Estonians, are thought to have collided, triggering a chain reaction, with four other vehicles – comprising the three army Toyota minibuses and a third civilian car – piling into each other.

According to local media reports, the cars that initially collided were a Volvo S80, driven by a 37-year-old woman and a BMW 530D, driven by a 62-year-old woman.

The Estonian Postimees news site reported that 12 British soldiers were injured as well as five civilians. They were all taken to hospital by ambulance.

The British troops are serving in Estonia as part of Operation Cabrit, the UK’s contribution to NATO’s “enhanced forward presence” mission, which spans nations across the alliance’s eastern flank and is designed to deter attacks from Russia.

Around 900 British troops are deployed in Estonia, including a unit of Challenger 2 tanks.

Read more:
Russian forces capture ‘former British soldier’ fighting for Ukraine – reports
Russia ‘ready to hit UK’ with wave of cyber attacks

A spokesperson for the Ministry of Defence said: “Several British soldiers deployed on Operation CABRIT in Estonia were injured in a road traffic incident last Friday, 22nd November.

“Following hospital treatment in Estonia, eight personnel were flown back to the UK on an RAF C-17 for further treatment.

“Five have since been discharged and three are being cared for at the Royal Centre for Defence Medicine, Queen Elizabeth Hospital Birmingham. We wish them all a speedy recovery.”

Defence Secretary John Healey said: “Following the road traffic incident involving British personnel in Estonia, my thoughts are with all those affected, and I wish those injured a full, swift recovery.

“Thanks to the Royal Centre for Defence Medicine at Queen Elizabeth Hospital Birmingham for their excellent care.”

Continue Reading

World

Egypt: Two Britons believed to be among 16 missing as tourist boat sinks after being ‘hit by large wave’

Published

on

By

Egypt: Two Britons believed to be among 16 missing as tourist boat sinks after being 'hit by large wave'

Two Britons are believed to be among more than a dozen people missing after a boat sank in the Red Sea off the Egyptian coast.

The yacht, called Sea Story, had 44 people on board, including 31 tourists of varying nationalities and 13 crew.

Authorities are searching for 16 people, including 12 foreign nationals and four Egyptians, the governor of the Red Sea region said, adding that 28 other people had been rescued.

Preliminary reports suggested a sudden large wave struck the vessel, capsizing it within about five minutes, governor Amr Hanafi said.

“Some passengers were in their cabins, which is why they were unable to escape,” he added in a statement.

Pic: STR/EPA-EFE/Shutterstock

More than dozen missing after tourist boat sinks off Red Sea in Egypt, Marsa Alam - 25 Nov 2024
Survivors of the sinking boat rest at a harbor in Marsa Alam, Red Sea Governorate, in Egypt 25 Novermber 2024.
Image:
Survivors rescued from the Sea Story in Marsa Alam. Pic: STR/EPA-EFE/Shutterstock

Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player

Passengers rescued from sunken tourist boat

The people who were rescued only suffered minor injuries such as bruises and scrapes with none needing hospital treatment.

A Foreign, Commonwealth and Development office spokesperson said: “We are providing consular support to a number of British nationals and their families following an incident in Egypt and are in contact with the local authorities.”

The foreign nationals aboard the 34-metre-long vessel, owned by an Egyptian national, included Americans, Belgians, British, Chinese, Finns, Germans, Irish, Poles, Slovakians, Spanish, and Swiss.

Sea Story had no technical problems, obtained all required permits before the trip, and was last checked for naval safety in March, according to officials.

The four-deck, wooden-hulled motor yacht was part of a multi-day diving trip when it went down near the coastal town of Marsa Alam following warnings about rough weather.

Egypt map

Officials said a distress call was received at 5.30am local time on Monday.

The boat had left Port Ghalib in Marsa Alam on Sunday and was scheduled to reach its destination of Hurghada Marina on 29 November.

The Sea Story was carrying 45 people according to a statement by the Red Sea Governorate.
Pic: Dive Pro Liveaboard
Image:
The Sea Story had 44 people on board. File pic: Dive Pro Liveaboard

Some survivors had been airlifted to safety on a helicopter, officials said.

The firm that operates the yacht, Dive Pro Liveaboard in Hurghada, said it has no information on the matter.

According to its maker’s website, the Sea Story was built in 2022.

Read more on Sky News:
Microsoft ‘investigating issue’ after users report problems
People join forces to save 30 whales stranded on beach

The incident comes after the Egyptian Meteorological Authority issued a warning on Saturday about turbulence and high waves on the Red Sea.

The organisation had advised against maritime activity for Sunday and Monday.

Some tourist companies have stopped or limited operations on the Red Sea due to the potential dangers from conflicts in the region.

Continue Reading

World

Prosecutors file to drop 2020 presidential election interference charges against Trump

Published

on

By

Prosecutors file to drop 2020 presidential election interference charges against Trump

A motion has been filed to drop the charges against Donald Trump of plotting to overturn the 2020 US presidential election result.

Mr Trump was first indicted on four felonies in August 2023: Conspiracy to defraud the United States, conspiracy to obstruct an official proceeding, obstruction of and an attempt to obstruct an official proceeding, and conspiracy against rights.

The president-elect pleaded not guilty to all charges and the case was then put on hold for months as Mr Trump’s team argued he could not be prosecuted.

U.S. Special Counsel Jack Smith looks on as he makes a statement to reporters after a grand jury returned an indictment of former U.S. President Donald Trump in the special counsel's investigation of efforts to overturn his 2020 election defeat, at Smith's offices in Washington, U.S. August 1, 2023. REUTERS/Kevin Wurm TPX IMAGES OF THE DAY
Image:
Special Counsel Jack Smith. Pic: Reuters

Donald Trump supporters storm the US Capitol
Image:
Donald Trump supporters storm the US Capitol

On Monday, prosecutors working with special counsel Jack Smith, who had led the investigation, asked a federal judge to dismiss the case over long-standing US justice department policy, dating back to the 1970s, that presidents cannot be prosecuted while in office.

It marks the end of the department’s landmark effort to hold Mr Trump accountable for the attack on the US Capitol on 6 January 2021 when thousands of Trump supporters assaulted police, broke through barricades, and swarmed the Capitol in a bid to prevent the US Congress from certifying Joe Biden’s 2020 election victory.

Trump plays blinder as accusers forced to turn blind eye over Capitol riots

In winning the White House, he avoids the so-called ‘big house’.

Whether or not prison was a prospect awaiting Donald Trump is a moot point now, as he now enjoys the protection of the presidency.

The delay strategy that he pursued through a grinding court process knocked his federal prosecution past the election date and when his numbers came up, he wasn’t going down.

Politically, and legally, he has played a blinder.

Read more analysis from James Matthews here

Mr Smith’s team had been assessing how to wind down both the election interference case and the separate classified documents case in the wake of Mr Trump’s election victory over vice president Kamala Harris earlier this month, effectively killing any chance of success for the case.

In court papers, prosecutors said “the [US] Constitution requires that this case be dismissed before the defendant is inaugurated”.

They said the ban [on prosecuting sitting presidents] “is categorical and does not turn on the gravity of the crimes charged, the strength of the government’s proof, or the merits of the prosecution, which the government stands fully behind”.

Mr Trump, who has said he would sack Mr Smith as soon as he takes office in January, and promised to pardon some convicted rioters, has long dismissed both the 2020 election interference case and the separate classified documents case as politically motivated.

Trump supporters try to break through a police barrier at the Capitol in Washington
Image:
Trump supporters try to break through a police barrier at the Capitol in Washington. Pic: AP

He was accused of illegally keeping classified papers after leaving office in 2021, some of which were allegedly found in his Mar-a-Lago home in Florida.

The election interference case stalled after the US Supreme Court ruled in July that former presidents have broad immunity from prosecution, which Mr Trump’s lawyers exploited to demand the charges against him be dismissed.

Mr Smith’s request to drop the case still needs to be approved by US District Judge Tanya Chutkan.

No date had been set for a trial.

Read more:
Trump can seek hush money case dismissal

Prosecutors to focus on ‘worst rioters’
Hollywood star jailed over Capitol riot

At least 1,500 cases have been brought against those accused of trying to overthrow the election result on 6 January 2021, resulting in more than 1,100 convictions, the Associated Press said.

More than 950 defendants have been sentenced and 600 of them jailed for terms ranging from a few days to 22 years.

Continue Reading

Trending