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Two weeks before the Aug. 1 MLB trade deadline, the Los Angeles Angels are hovering around the .500 mark, which leaves one question hanging over the entire sport: Will the Halos trade free-agent-to-be Shohei Ohtani?

Though we don’t yet know what the Angels’ decision will be, we aren’t about to let that stop us from trying to find the best trade partner for a potential Ohtani blockbuster.

We asked our MLB experts to play GM for nine teams that could potentially pull off a deal for Ohtani, making their best possible offers to land the two-way superstar, and we enlisted Jeff Passan to decide which proposals are worth the Angels’ time.


Sorry, you must have the wrong number

Proposed deal: RHP Shane Baz, 2B/3B Curtis Mead, 1B Xavier Isaac, RHP Marcus Johnson

An Ohtani trade wouldn’t constitute a rebuild for the Angels; they’d want to try to win again next season, and they’d be looking to add players who are (1) controllable for several years and (2) ready to contribute in 2024. That’s why this is the perfect package.

Baz has the ability to become one of the most dominant pitchers on the planet, and he should be fully recovered from Tommy John surgery for the start of 2024. Mead, No. 34 on Kiley McDaniel’s latest prospect rankings, boasts a nice combination of contact ability and power and can be the everyday second baseman next season, plus he provides insurance for an injury-prone Anthony Rendon at third base.

This is an aggressive package, especially when you consider the lower-level, higher-ceiling guys tacked on. But the Rays are a championship-caliber team that could use a boost and would never have a chance at a superstar player like this if not for the trade market. Who knows — maybe Ohtani, who has taken to analytics since working out at Driveline three winters ago, falls in love with the infrastructure in Tampa, and the Rays, trying to finalize a new stadium in the area, do the impossible and sign him long term. Wilder things have happened. For now, though, Ohtani for the rest of this season alone would place them head and shoulders above everybody else. — Alden Gonzalez

GM Jeff says … If Junior Caminero isn’t in this deal, I’m hanging up. As good as Baz could be, as well as Mead has hit, as much as Isaac’s numbers show he wasn’t an overdraft, as gaudy as Johnson’s strikeout to walk ratio may be (74-to-6), I need a no-doubt carrying piece. Caminero’s rocketing stock — .330/.386/.588 between High-A and Double-A as a just-turned-20-year-old — and his ability to play both positions on the left side of the infield make him a must in any trade. If not him, at least give me Carson Williams, also a shortstop and also mighty dynamic. The Rays have a robust enough farm system to get Ohtani, no doubt, but for an organization that knows it has no chance of re-signing him, the offer will only go so high, even if he is the sort of player who can get them to the World Series.


Proposed deal: CF Everson Pereira, SS Trey Sweeney, RHP Chase Hampton, RHP Drew Thorpe, 2B Jared Serna

I prioritized including multiple prospects who could be on a top 100 list this winter or next rather than just one top player and skewing most of the value toward (1) position players and (2) being in Double-A now or soon. Pereira (power-over-hit outfield tweener) and Sweeney (hit-over-power lefty-hitting shortstop) are probably both in the back half of the top 100 right now. Hampton and Thorpe are arrow-up starters with above-average stuff and enough feel to start, while Serna is a nice late-blooming power/speed performer. — Kiley McDaniel

GM Jeff says … This feels a lot like the Joey Gallo deal, which, in hindsight, turned out pretty well for the Rangers. But this is Shohei Ohtani, man. I want Spencer Jones, the leviathan outfielder. I want Jasson Dominguez, The Martian. The Yankees certainly can deal in bulk, and they’re the team that might benefit most from Ohtani’s presence. And because — unlike the Rays — they’re plenty capable of signing him as a free agent, this would be as much a showcase to him as it is a rental to the club. So, sorry, Fake Cashman. Get back to the drawing board and bring me something better.


Proposed deal: SS Ronny Mauricio, 3B Mark Vientos, C Kevin Parada, RHP Mike Vasil

You think owner Steve Cohen believes his team is too far out of contention? C’mon. DH Daniel Vogelbach and rotation filler David Peterson aren’t exactly All-Stars, and half of this team is over 34 years old. The Mets have no interest in melding these top prospects to the big club, and each is blocked. Ohtani can join former teammate Kodai Senga and see what it’s like in the top media market. Oh, and which team can spend the most money this winter? Yep. — Eric Karabell

GM Jeff says … I get it. There are a lot of names in this deal. But Mauricio and Vientos, for all their power, have troubling plate-discipline numbers, Parada is redundant with Logan O’Hoppe — a catcher in the midst of a breakout before a brutal left shoulder injury — and Vasil is more a back end of the rotation type than a top dude. This feels like a missed opportunity, frankly. If the Angels really were to move Ohtani, they could use him as the carrot to wheedle a team into taking on the rest of Rendon’s deal, which will cost about $127 million. Yes, Rendon has a no-trade clause, but he also could be in search of a change of scenery after 3½ middling years in Anaheim. Considering owner Arte Moreno operates on a finite budget, financial flexibility really would be meaningful as I try to rebuild this team post-Ohtani.


Call back when you’re ready to get serious

Proposed deal: OF/1B Heston Kjerstad, 3B Coby Mayo, LHP Cade Povich, LHP DL Hall

With the Rays faltering and the Rangers and Astros having some of the same pitching concerns as Baltimore, now is absolutely the time for the Orioles to make the biggest trade in franchise history since they acquired Frank Robinson. If they acquire Ohtani, they would be the best team in the American League — and no team is better equipped to make a deal than the Orioles, who have the best farm system in the majors. Heck, it’s so deep they won’t be able to play all these guys anyway. It’s more loaded in position players and the Angels probably want some pitching, so we’re including two hitting stars and two potential lefty starters. And, no, don’t even ask about Jackson Holliday. — David Schoenfield

GM Jeff says … So, how about Jackson Holliday? OK. Fine. But what you’ve got here isn’t enough for the Angels … and probably is too much for the Orioles. They have built their stout major league roster with patience, a plan and the understanding that as great as 2023 has been, their future competitiveness rests on a player-development run that’s almost too good to be true. Keeping their young core together is imperative. That said: I love Kjerstad’s left-handed swing, Mayo’s production is elite and in Povich and Hall you get two lefties with premium stuff. Perhaps plumbing the big league roster is in order. Colton Cowser is the sort of headliner who would make this more attractive.


Proposed deal: LHP Kyle Harrison, SS Marco Luciano, LHP/DH Reggie Crawford, OF Mike Yastrzemski

It’s painful to give up two top-20 prospects in Harrison and Luciano, but a San Francisco trade for Ohtani isn’t just about 2023. This gives the Giants a leg up on signing him long-term. We already know they have money to spend — see their pursuits of Carlos Correa and Aaron Judge for evidence. The Angels get back a few home runs in Yastrzemski while the Giants open up a spot for Joc Pederson to play the outfield when Ohtani is the designated hitter. Putting Crawford in the deal just seems right considering he’s doing an Ohtani in High-A. Yes, I’m proposing a two-way player gets traded for another two-way player. Fun. — Jesse Rogers

GM Jeff says … Not bad, but I want left-hander Carson Whisenhunt, too. And I suppose that’s my problem here. Trading for pitching prospects is scary, and this deal revolves around them. Yes, the Dodgers’ deal below does, too, but the volume — and Rushing being better than Luciano — exceeds the Giants’ offer, even if they were to include Whisenhunt. Remember, too, the Giants’ big league roster is extremely deep, and while I wouldn’t expect them to offer Patrick Bailey for a rental — even Ohtani — grabbing Luis Matos, Casey Schmitt or maybe Blake Sabol would turn this deal from an afterthought into a competitor.


Proposed deal: SS Cole Young, CF Jonatan Clase, RHP Emerson Hancock, RHP Darren Bowen

I focused on trying to offer the single best prospect, because the quality depth that I’m dealing with here isn’t enough to just pick a couple players from the options at each prospect tier. It’s up for debate whether Young (or Harry Ford if you prefer) would be the best single prospect on the table, but that would at least be a discussion, with all of the players in that discussion ranking in the 26-50 tier of a top 100 list. Clase is an 80-grade runner with big tools and a big arrow up this season (now at Double-A), while Hancock is a former top-10 overall pick who is turning the corner (in Double-A) to becoming a rotation player as soon as 2024.

You get two obvious big leaguers and one intriguing lottery ticket, and none are more than two years away. Other than the already-good-in-the-big-leagues Bryan Woo, these are the best prospects I can offer who are close to the majors. Oh, and I’ll throw in the biggest arrow-up pitcher in the system this year in Bowen, who has two plus pitches and starter traits, but he’s a late-bloomer with limited pro innings. — McDaniel

GM Jeff says … This is a good offer, but if I’m the Angels — er, I am the Angels — I want a sure-thing leading man, and that doesn’t exist here. Seriously, you have a big league rotation full of productive starters, and you’re not going to even offer me one? Start with Logan Gilbert or George Kirby and you leap to the top of the list. Woo is plenty intriguing, too.

As for the names included: Young can really, really hit, Clase’s power-speed combo belies his short stature and Hancock and Bowen are both tooled-up arms. The problem with any Mariners offer, of course, is that they’re just not good enough this season to warrant selling the farm. So this trade would essentially be: a bunch of very promising players for the right to put the hard sell on Ohtani over a two-month period. And as ridiculous as this sounds, it’s the sort of gamble the Mariners might consider worth taking — and they wouldn’t be wrong. The “Come to Seattle” chants at the All-Star Game said everything the Mariners need to know. If there is anybody in baseball worth getting stupid over, it’s Shohei Ohtani.


Now we’re talking

Proposed deal: SS Jordan Lawlar, OF Alek Thomas, RHP Slade Cecconi, LHP Yu-Min Lin

The Diamondbacks are building something really nice here, so they’ll be reluctant to deal away future talent, but given Ohtani is favored to land with the Dodgers or Giants as a free agent, 2023 might actually be their best opportunity to win a division title over the next five years. Added bonus: They might be the only National League team with both the resources and motive to make a deal — the Braves and Phillies don’t have the prospects, for example, and the Dodgers could prefer to just sign Ohtani. The D-backs have two premium prospects in Lawlar and outfielder Druw Jones, and Geraldo Perdomo‘s breakout could allow them to include Lawlar in a deal. Thomas gives the Angels a Gold Glove-caliber center fielder who could be the next Kevin Kiermaier — great D, good enough at the plate. That’s a strong package right there, and we’ve included two solid pitching prospects as well. — Schoenfield

GM Jeff says … This is a strong offer — and I’m still inclined to say no. While Lawlar is a top-25 prospect, some scouts have doubts that he’s the sort of player around whom a deal of this magnitude could be built. Lin is a favorite, already up to Double-A having just turned 20 years old, but Thomas simply hasn’t hit in 600 big league plate appearances and Cecconi is faltering in Triple-A. If you want to consider shortstops Blaze Alexander and Jansel Luis in the deal, I’d be a lot more willing to listen.


Proposed deal: RHP Brock Porter, RHP Jack Leiter, UT Ezequiel Duran, 2B Justin Foscue, OF Yeison Morrobel

It’ll take a lot for any team to pry Ohtani away from the Angels, especially within the division. It’ll almost assuredly require at least three of this deep farm system’s top six prospects, a budding big league star and a promising younger pitching prospect. Might it take six players? Perhaps, but Texas has more of an in-season rental feel among prospective Ohtani destinations, which is why OF Evan Carter and SP Owen White are off-limits. Or, at least, that’s the part that’s for Jeff’s ears. The part that’s not: If it needs to be White in place of Porter or Leiter, or SS Luisangel Acuna in place of Foscue, so be it (though probably not both). When you’ve got a chance to win, you take it, and Ohtani would fill the injured Jacob deGrom‘s shoes as staff ace nicely. Ideally, we keep Jeff on the line and haggle on those final pieces. — Tristan Cockcroft

GM Jeff says … Now we’re starting to talk. Perhaps some don’t know much about Duran — who, incidentally, came over in the Gallo deal — but he’s quite a good big leaguer already. He just turned 24, isn’t a free agent until after the 2028 season, is hitting .300/.336/.514 and is capable of playing every infield position and both corner-outfield spots. He’s the best current player offered so far, and Alden’s point about the Angels wanting close-to-the-big-leagues contributors makes this deal very attractive. Foscue could be a productive major leaguer right now. Porter is the best pitching prospect in Texas’ system. Leiter has the pedigree. Want a definitive yes? Flip Morrobel for Sebastian Walcott, the 17-year-old Bahamian shortstop who is wowing scouts as he destroys the Arizona Complex League.


You had me at hello

Proposed deal: OF Josue De Paula, RHP Nick Nastrini, RHP Ryan Pepiot, C Dalton Rushing, RHP Emmet Sheehan, RHP Gavin Stone

I’m not listening to suggestions that we can just wait until the winter to blow the Ohtani market out of the water. I want him in Chavez Ravine and I want him now. There is a title out there to be won — this season — and Ohtani could well be the player who gets us over the top.

But make no mistake: This is not a mere short-term splash. We have been angling for this player since last season ended. Getting him now only enhances our ability to keep him for the rest of his Hall of Fame career. How is he going to resist a market-value offer from the Dodgers after a deep postseason run that unfolds in a setting that doesn’t require him to move house, with a club that has more than a decade of proof that every single season we are in it to win it? I don’t want him to experience the playoffs with another team. And I don’t worry about our system — it’s deep. Our scouting and development operations are fecund. We are the Dodgers. Resistance is futile. — Bradford Doolittle

GM Jeff says … Um. Yes. I almost feel bad about this, because the Dodgers would not do this in real life, but you know what? That’s cool, because it serves as a wonderful illustration of how good their farm system actually is. Rushing might be the best player offered in any deal, and while the O’Hoppe factor exists, you don’t say no to a player with his talent. Even if only two of the pitchers pan out, the upside is so high — from Sheehan’s fastball to Stone’s and Pepiot’s changeups to Nastrini’s slider — that you absolutely bet on any of them. And to get De Paula, the 18-year-old who is more than holding his own in full-season ball, as an add-on?

Perhaps this offer is a function of the reality, which is that there’s almost no chance Moreno ever would move Ohtani to the Dodgers. Then again, however rough those optics would be — especially if Ohtani fell in love with the team and signed there this winter because he so enjoyed his post-deadline time — taking six elite players, all with six years of major league control, is a far better consolation prize than not dealing him and losing him in free agency for a middling draft pick after the second round.

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Bama-Georgia, Oregon-Penn State and 26 more to watch in college football’s biggest week

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Bama-Georgia, Oregon-Penn State and 26 more to watch in college football's biggest week

Since the college football preseason, it has been easy to circle Week 5 as sort of a rubber-meets-road weekend. It’s finally here, and it’s as big as we could have hoped.

Oregon and Penn State have beaten seven overwhelmed opponents by an average score of 48-8; their seasons begin in earnest in Happy Valley on Saturday night. Alabama’s loss to Florida State in Week 1 made the Tide’s first trip to Athens, Georgia, in a decade even bigger from a consequences perspective. Unbeaten LSU and Ole Miss face off for what could be their third straight down-to-the-wire affair. Top-ranked Ohio State’s first road test of the season pits the Buckeyes against a Washington team with one of the most prolific offenses in the country.

Those are just the main events! On Friday night, resurgent Florida State visits a wonderfully surprising Virginia team. After last week’s merciless blowout of Illinois, Indiana has to avoid a massive letdown at Iowa, where many a letdown has occurred. Notre Dame and Arkansas play for the first time in a battle of frustrating and spectacularly explosive teams. Auburn and Texas A&M, which have played many wild and silly games over the past decade, have lots on the line in College Station. USC tests its unbeaten record in Champaign against scorned Illinois. We even get a Big Sky Saturday night with a battle of FCS top-10 teams!

We’ve spent four weeks gearing up for this one. Time to get hyped and hydrated. Here’s everything you need to follow in an incredible Week 5.

Games are Saturday unless noted; times are Eastern.

The season begins in Happy Valley

No. 6 Oregon at No. 3 Penn State (7:30 p.m., NBC)

With all due respect to Nevada, Florida International and Villanova — the No. 138, 134 and 186 teams, respectively, in my all-division SP+ rankings — Penn State began its 2025 season with three glorified scrimmages. Per SP+, an average top-five team would expect to start the season 3-0 against those opponents 97.3% of the time, winning by an average of 38.3 points per game. The Nittany Lions won by exactly 38.3 per game.

Penn State traded résumé-building opportunities and a little bit of margin for error for three sure wins and got them. Oregon also hasn’t played much of a murderer’s row; the Ducks have dominated four teams ranked between 89th and 123rd in SP+. They didn’t allow their first non-garbage-time touchdown until last Saturday. Nothing is a must-win game for two name-brand Big Ten teams with unbeaten records, but neither of these teams will have sparkling strength-of-schedule rankings if they’re in, say, a large pile of 10-2 playoff hopefuls. It’s probably best to win this one.

Penn State’s defense has been every bit as dominant as we expected, considering James Franklin already had a top-five defense and added the best defensive coordinator in the country (Jim Knowles) to lead it. The Nittany Lions force turnovers and don’t allow big plays, and they’ve continued to dominate the red zone as they did last season. The run defense maybe hasn’t dominated as much as I thought it would, but the pass defense has been just about perfect: Corner Elliot Washington II has more catches (one interception) than he has allowed (0-for-6), defensive end Dani Dennis-Sutton has been as good as advertised (4.5 tackles for loss, 2 sacks, 2 forced fumbles), and linebacker Tony Rojas has picked up where he left off in last year’s College Football Playoff (4.5 TFLs, two sacks). Freshman end Chaz Coleman has quickly become a weapon, too.

To put it politely, the offense has been rather reserved. Franklin is the type of coach who would keep things vanilla and put as little as possible on film before a big game. PSU isn’t allowing pressure or negative plays and has committed just one turnover in three games, and Drew Allar hasn’t really looked to make big plays — he has thrown just four passes 30 or more yards downfield, completing two for touchdowns. The Nittany Lions have been content to lean on opponents until they fall over.

Still, you’d like to think that, with so few deep-ball attempts, Allar would be completing more than 65% of his passes. And you’d like to think that, even with vanilla playcalling, Nicholas Singleton would be averaging more than 4.4 yards per carry. Kaytron Allen, another star back, has been dynamite (8.0 yards per carry, lots of broken tackles), new receivers Trebor Pena and Kyron Hudson have done their jobs, and tight end Luke Reynolds has caught 13 of 16 passes. But Allar and Singleton haven’t been as sharp as necessary. Can they turn it on now that the season is really starting? Especially against this defense?

The Oregon pass defense has looked fantastic so far, and both star edge rusher Matayo Uiagalelei (three sacks, one pass breakup) and linebacker Teitum Tuioti (4.5 TFLs, 5 run stops, 1.5 sacks) have looked the part. As with PSU, the run defense has been imperfect — the rebuilt defensive front is still settling in — but the Ducks are forcing loads of passing downs and three-and-outs.

I was unsure about Oregon’s offense heading into the season because it would be relying on so many new starters, but the Ducks are fourth in points per drive, second in offensive SP+ and first in overall SP+. It seems as though things are going pretty well. Quarterback Dante Moore has been as automatic as coordinator Will Stein could want, completing 75% of his passes with just one sack. The receiver quartet of Malik Benson, Dakorien Moore, Gary Bryant Jr. and Jeremiah McClellan has caught 44 of 58 passes for 662 yards. Moore has also connected on four of seven downfield shots of more than 30 yards. His QB radar is nearly a perfect circle now.

Running back Jayden Limar enjoyed a star turn during Noah Whittington‘s injury absence, but now Whittington should be back. It has all worked. Even against a top-40 Northwestern defense, the Ducks scored on six of nine drives and averaged 6.7 yards per play. But this is still the biggest game of Moore’s career, and it will be played against one of the best defenses in the country in front of maybe college football’s loudest crowd (on White Out day, no less). It’s impossible to know a team is ready for that until it proves it.

Current line: PSU -3.5 | SP+ projection: Oregon by 0.4 | FPI projection: PSU by 0.3


Bama has a lot to lose at Georgia

No. 17 Alabama at No. 5 Georgia (7:30 p.m., ABC)

At this point last year, Alabama gave us the two best games of 2024.

play

1:02

Alabama answers right back with Ryan Williams’ 75-yard touchdown

Jalen Milroe heaves one to Ryan Williams, who goes 75 yards to restore Alabama’s lead.

First, the Tide outlasted Georgia in an unreal 41-34 game that featured a huge Bulldogs comeback and maybe the greatest play of the season. Then, they turned around and lost to Vanderbilt in the upset of the year. In a lovely instance of symmetry, Bama once again gets Georgia and Vandy back-to-back. But the challenges won’t stop there. Six of the Tide’s next seven opponents rank 16th or better in SP+, and thanks to their dreadful Week 1 showing at Florida State, they don’t have much margin for error. If they lose in Athens on Saturday, in their first road trip since Tallahassee, they might have none.

Since their game against FSU, the Tide have been just about perfect. Louisiana-Monroe and Wisconsin obviously aren’t amazing, but Bama overachieved against SP+ projections by a combined 48.4 points against the Warhawks and Badgers. The offense has surged to fifth nationally in points per possession, though its one-dimensionality could become an issue: The Tide are 18th in passing success rate* but 87th in rushing success rate and are therefore throwing far more frequently than the national average. Against Wisconsin, Bama running backs carried 15 times for just 45 yards, but it didn’t matter because quarterback Ty Simpson went 24-for-29 for 382 yards. (That was after going 17-for-17 for 226 yards against ULM. Like I said: just about perfect.)

(* Success rate: how frequently an offense is gaining 50% of necessary yards on first down, 70% on second, and 100% on third and fourth.)

That pass-heavy ratio probably won’t change Saturday because if you’re going to move the ball on Georgia, it’s through the air: The Dawgs are 10th in rushing success rate allowed but 86th against the pass. Tennessee’s Joey Aguilar threw for 371 yards and four touchdowns, and UT’s Chris Brazzell II torched UGA’s Daniel Harris one-on-one: four targets, four catches, 90 yards, two touchdowns. Offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb should find matchups for receivers Ryan Williams and Germie Bernard — and perhaps Isaiah Horton, who has caught nine of nine passes for 105 yards and 2 scores — to exploit.

The Georgia run defense is really strong, with linebackers CJ Allen and Raylen Wilson combining for 28 tackles against the run with four run stops (tackles at or behind the line). But despite blitzing a decent amount, the Dawgs rank just 102nd in sack rate and 111th in yards allowed per dropback. Without marked improvement there, Bama might get away without having to run much.

After sleepwalking through the Austin Peay game in Week 2, the Georgia offense woke up when it had to against Tennessee. The Dawgs were hit-and-miss — six possessions with 69 or more yards, four of 9 or fewer — primarily because negative plays derailed some drives (something that right tackle Earnest Greene III‘s continued injury issues won’t help). But Gunner Stockton was 8-for-11 for 111 yards and 2 touchdowns on third and fourth down.

Efficiency levels are solid despite the negative plays, but big plays are an issue.

You’d rather be near USC or Florida State on that chart, not Iowa and Utah. Stockton is just 3-for-11 on passes thrown more than 20 yards downfield — one of those was the game-saving, fourth-down touchdown lob to London Humphrey against Tennessee — and the Dawgs have gotten some big gainers off short, quick passes to the bouncy Zach Branch, but this isn’t a naturally explosive offense.

Alabama’s defense hasn’t created nearly enough negative plays — the Tide are 68th in sack rate and 83rd in stuff rate — and their opponents’ third-down conversion rate has risen in each game. (Wisconsin was 6-for-11.) That could make them vulnerable to Georgia’s short game, but they could counter that somewhat with big-play prevention: They got burned for four gains of 25 or more against Florida State, but they’ve given up just one such play since.

Because Georgia saved itself against Tennessee with yet another overtime win (its past three wins against power conference teams went to OT), the Dawgs have a little less to lose Saturday. But that’s the fun thing about college football: try to tell the 93,033 in attendance that one team needs this one a little more than the other. Huge games will always feel like huge games, and Bama-Georgia will always be a huge game.

Current line: UGA -3.5 | SP+ projection: Bama by 0.7 | FPI projection: UGA by 1.1


Ole Miss’ revenge or another LSU thriller?

No. 4 LSU at No. 13 Ole Miss (3:30 p.m., ABC)

In five seasons from 1958 to 1962, Ole Miss and LSU met as top-15 opponents five times. You could say it was the Bama-Georgia of the day. (I guess that would make Billy Cannon’s punt return the “Second-and-26” of the day, especially because it probably prevented an Ole Miss national title.) For the next 60 years, though, these types of meetings were sparse. In 2003, Nick Saban’s LSU took down Eli Manning and Ole Miss to decide the SEC West, but that was about it until last year, when the Tigers won a 29-26 overtime thriller without leading for a second.

Ole Miss finished last season second in SP+, but three heartbreaking losses kept them out of the CFP. It felt like an epic missed opportunity because how often can Ole Miss expect to field a team that good? Well, the Rebels are unbeaten and seventh in SP+, and they’ve already avenged one of 2024’s heartbreakers by knocking off Kentucky in Lexington.

It looks like quarterback Trinidad Chambliss will start again for the Rebels. Stepping in for the injured Austin Simmons, the Ferris State transfer has completed 42 of 62 passes for 719 yards and 4 touchdowns with only two sacks, adding 198 non-sack rushing yards and two more scores. The approach with Chambliss has been simple: don’t worry about complicated intermediate passing, just woo defensive backs close to the line of scrimmage with relentless short passing, then hit ’em deep. He has completed 7 of 9 passes thrown 25 or more yards downfield.

Note the big gap in the middle of that pass map. With Chambliss’ legs, a heavy dose of running back Kewan Lacy and receivers like Harrison Wallace III capable of gaining solid yardage on short passes, the Rebels have a lot of ways to stay on schedule. That’s important because LSU dominates when teams get off schedule.

Opponents are just 2-for-26 against LSU on third-and-7 or more, and the Tigers have yet to allow more than 10 points in a game. Brian Kelly did well in the transfer portal by adding former USF defensive tackle Bernard Gooden up front (4 run stops, 6 pressures, 1 forced fumble) and former Virginia Tech cornerback Mansoor Delane. Opponents have targeted Delane’s man 20 times, and he has allowed just three completions with a pick and four breakups.

The LSU defense has controlled games so well that Tigers quarterback Garrett Nussmeier hasn’t had to take many chances. He has thrown only 11 passes more than 20 yards downfield, and he has completed only two of them with an interception. Opponents are blitzing a lot because of LSU’s unproven line and a poor run game, but Nussmeier is completing 73% of all his other passes. Wideouts Aaron Anderson, Barion Brown and Zavion Thomas and tight end Bauer Sharp have all caught at least 11 balls.

The passing game has been sharp enough that a dreadful run game hasn’t yet cost the Tigers. But whew, is it dreadful: LSU is 108th in rushing success rate. Caden Durham got hurt last week against Southeastern Louisiana, but he’s averaging only 4.1 yards per carry. Getting blue-chip freshman Harlem Berry (5.8 per carry with more yards after contact) more touches might not be a bad idea.

The Tigers’ reliance on the pass creates an interesting contrast: Ole Miss’ pass defense has been efficient (18th in passing success rate allowed), but the run defense has been awful (104th). Defensive coordinator Pete Golding rarely blitzes, and Rebel defenders rarely end up in the backfield, but they do a good job of tackling and cluttering passing lanes — opponents have completed just 49% of their passes, third lowest in FBS. You move the ball on Ole Miss on the ground, but LSU moves the ball through the air. We love some nice narrative tension!

Current line: Ole Miss -1.5 | SP+ projection: Ole Miss by 5.7 | FPI projection: Ole Miss by 6.5


The No. 1 team heads west

No. 1 Ohio State at Washington (3:30 p.m., CBS)

It appears conventional wisdom has forgotten about the Washington Huskies. The 2023 national runners-up rank first nationally in points per drive and ninth in yards per play, they have beaten three overwhelmed opponents by an average of 56-18, and they boast one of the nation’s most entertaining backfields with dual-threat quarterback Demond Williams Jr. and tackle-breaking back Jonah Coleman. But they have zero AP poll votes. How?

Granted, they probably won’t get any votes next week either because they will probably lose to Ohio State. The top-ranked Buckeyes took a week off after moving to 3-0, and they head west with one of the best defenses in the country.

With safety Caleb Downs and veteran breakout stars in tackle Caden Curry and OLB Arvell Reese, the Buckeyes likely have the tools to frustrate a young quarterback like Williams, and considering Washington’s banged-up defense ranks 61st in points allowed per drive without having played a top-80 offense (per SP+), it’s hard to see the Huskies making enough stops.

Despite one-third of its games coming against Texas’ excellent defense, Ohio State ranks second in passing success rate and completion rate. The Buckeyes’ run game isn’t nearly as strong as we’re used to seeing — then again, rising freshman Bo Jackson (no relation) has gained 217 yards in his first 18 carries — but quarterback Julian Sayin has thrived throwing to stars Jeremiah Smith and Carnell Tate (combined: 32 catches, 534 yards, 6 touchdowns), and I don’t know how UW disrupts that connection with star cornerback Tacario Davis questionable and nickel Dyson McCutcheon out. (Linebacker Buddah Al-Uqdah is also out.)

So why am I giving this game marquee treatment instead of sticking it in the playlist below? A few reasons:

• This is Sayin’s first road start, and plenty of awesome, young quarterbacks have stumbled on the road early in their careers. Washington also blitzes a lot and has at least one excellent pass rusher in Jacob Lane.

• Net YAC! I wrote about the impact of yards after contact this week, and Washington is one of the nation’s best teams at grinding out YAC and allowing none for opponents.

• The Huskies’ offense ranks first in third-down conversion rate (75.0%) and, combined with Coleman successfully fighting for extra yards, could move the chains and frustrate Ohio State’s defense.

• Everyone fails a test at some point, but in five career starts, Williams has completed 78% of his passes at 14.6 yards per completion with 402 non-sack rushing yards and only one interception. He’s incredible, and there’s nothing like a visit from the No. 1 team to introduce yourself to the world.

Yes, Ohio State probably wins. But Washington might not need many breaks to take this one down to the wire.

Current line: OSU -7.5 (down from -9.5 Sunday) | SP+ projection: OSU by 10.2 | FPI projection: OSU by 5.0


YAC kings in action

That’s right, this week’s keyword is YAC. Yards after contact are the secret weapon for teams exceeding expectations, and quite a few Week 5 games will highlight 2025’s YAC kings. That includes two games pitting YAC kings against one another.

No. 8 Florida State at Virginia (Friday, 7 p.m., ESPN).

FSU has vaulted back into the top 10 as if 2024’s collapse was a figment of our imagination. The Seminoles are fifth in net YAC and second in rushing yards per game — veteran coordinator Gus Malzahn has gone back to his rushing roots, and it’s pretty spicy to watch. Virginia, however, is eighth in net YAC and has leaped from 74th to 42nd in SP+. An offense with seven transfer starters, including RB J’Mari Taylor, has improved almost as much as Florida State’s.

Current line: FSU -6.5 | SP+ projection: FSU by 2.9 | FPI projection: FSU by 2.5

No. 11 Indiana at Iowa (3:30 p.m., Peacock).

Indiana (sixth in net YAC) hits the road to face an Iowa team (ninth in net YAC) that has upset four top-15 teams at home in the past decade. Curt Cignetti’s Hoosiers have to watch out for a letdown after last week’s Illinois blowout, but while Iowa’s offense has scored 30 points three times this season, the only decent defense the Hawkeyes have faced, Iowa State’s, held them to 13. Kinnick Stadium will need to summon loads of magic (and YAC) for the Hawkeyes to take this one.

Current line: Indiana -7.5 | SP+ projection: Indiana by 9.2 | FPI projection: Indiana by 8.7

No. 21 USC at No. 23 Illinois (noon, Fox).

Two weeks ago, USC (seventh in net YAC) wobbled but kept it together in a 33-17 win at Purdue. This midwestern trip should be trickier. Illinois got YAC’d to pieces by Indiana and will probably respond with physicality, but the Illini still must slow down Jayden Maiava and a great USC passing game.

Current line: USC -6.5 | SP+ projection: USC by 7.6 | FPI projection: USC by 6.3

No. 25 BYU at Colorado (10:15 p.m., ESPN).

BYU (fourth in net YAC) is just mean. The Cougars rank first in points allowed per drive and force tons of negative plays, and running back LJ Martin is a great security blanket for freshman QB Bear Bachmeier. Colorado’s offense found its footing last week against Wyoming, but the BYU defense is a different obstacle.

Current line: BYU -6.5 | SP+ projection: BYU by 8.6 | FPI projection: BYU by 8.1

Rice at Navy (3:30 p.m., CBSSN).

If you’re a fan of the multiview box, this one will be a lovely complement to LSU-Ole Miss and Ohio State-Washington. Not only do you get another glimpse at unbeaten Navy (first in net YAC), but you also get to watch a Rice option offense averaging 246 rushing yards per game.

Current line: Navy -14.5 | SP+ projection: Navy by 17.9 | FPI projection: Navy by 15.7

Virginia Tech at NC State (7 p.m., The CW).

Hollywood Smothers leads the nation in yards after contact, and he has been the primary driver of NC State’s 3-1 start. The defense gives up far too many big plays, and for all of Virginia Tech’s flaws, receivers Ayden Greene and Donavon Greene are explosive. But you’re watching this one for Smothers.

Current line: NC State -9.5 | SP+ projection: NC State by 9.7 | FPI projection: NC State by 3.5

UMass at No. 20 Missouri (7:30 p.m., ESPNU).

OK, you don’t need to watch much of this, especially during a loaded prime-time slot. But any glimpse of Mizzou (second in net YAC) and backs Ahmad Hardy and Jamal Roberts (combined: 898 yards and eight TDs) is worth the effort.

Current line: Mizzou -43.5 | SP+ projection: Mizzou by 52.5 | FPI projection: Mizzou by 44.5


Week 5 chaos superfecta

We’re once again using this space to will chaos into existence, looking at four carefully curated games with pretty big point spreads and mashing them together into a much more upset-friendly number. Thanks to San Diego State’s shocking blowout of Cal, we’re now 3-for-4 this season. Our power is only growing stronger.

This week, SP+ says there’s only a 46% chance that Indiana (72% win probability at Iowa), Utah (83% at West Virginia), Houston (85% at Oregon State) and Memphis (90% at FAU) all win. Someone’s suffering a letdown game after either a big win (Indiana or Memphis) or a long flight (Utah or Houston).


Week 5 playlist

Here are some more games you should pay attention to if you want the absolute most out of the weekend, from both information and entertainment perspectives.

Friday evening

No. 24 TCU at Arizona State (9 p.m., Fox). It took a couple of weeks, but ASU has officially checked into the 2025 season with an easy win over Texas State and a buzzer-beater over Baylor in Waco. The Sun Devils haven’t lost a conference game in more than 11 months, but TCU has very the part in 2025. Pair this with FSU-Virginia, and you’ve got a hell of a Friday night!

Current line: ASU -3.5 | SP+ projection: TCU by 1.3 | FPI projection: TCU by 0.1

Early Saturday

No. 22 Notre Dame at Arkansas (noon, ABC). Notre Dame and Arkansas have won three games by a combined 113 points and lost four by a combined 11. That’s pretty tough to do, and one of them will head into October with a losing record despite obvious upside. I’ll be really disappointed if we don’t get a track meet here, considering their seven games have averaged 69.7 total points thus far.

Current line: ND -3.5 (down from -6.5) | SP+ projection: Arkansas by 2.2 | FPI projection: ND by 1.4

Cincinnati at Kansas (noon, TNT). I think Cincinnati might be good. I know Kansas is. The Jayhawks led Missouri in the fourth quarter and beat three other opponents (including West Virginia) by a combined 118-24. Cincinnati’s offense ranks second nationally in success rate — second rushing, third passing — and the defense ranks first in yards allowed per successful play. If they figure out how not to completely stink on third downs, the Bearcats could pull an upset.

Current line: KU -4.5 (down from -6.5) | SP+ projection: KU by 9.8 | FPI projection: KU by 5.2

Duke at Syracuse (noon, ACCN). How good is Rickie Collins? The sophomore LSU transfer — and new Syracuse starter — was just 3-for-8 against Clemson after stepping in for the injured Steve Angeli, but his 18-yard touchdown pass to Justus Ross-Simmons put away the upset. Duke’s pass defense has been surprisingly disastrous this season, but the Blue Devils can rush the passer and potentially stress Collins.

Current line: Duke -6.5 (up from -4.5) | SP+ projection: ‘Cuse by 4.0 | FPI projection: ‘Cuse by 3.1

Louisville at Pitt (noon, ESPN2). Louisville has yet to play a top-50 opponent, per SP+, but the Cardinals have a good pass defense and maybe the most explosive running back corps in FBS. Pitt, meanwhile, has an explosive passing game and maybe the best run defense Louisville will face. I think Louisville’s really good, but Pitt is pretty good at making things messy and thriving in the chaos.

Current line: Louisville -4.5 | SP+ projection: Louisville by 3.6 | FPI projection: Louisville by 1.7

Rutgers at Minnesota (noon, BTN). For the second straight week, Rutgers will try to entice a known rock-fight lover into a wide-open battle. Both teams are coming off frustrating losses — Minnesota lost by 13 to a Cal team that proceeded to get drubbed by San Diego State, and Rutgers dragged Iowa into a track meet but lost 38-28. The loser of this one just hopes to get to 6-6.

Current line: Minnesota -4.5 | SP+ projection: Minnesota by 2.8 | FPI projection: Minnesota by 1.2

No. 14 Georgia Tech at Wake Forest (noon, ESPN). Wake Forest has outscored opponents 66-30 in the first and third quarters but has been outscored 23-10 in the second and fourth. The Demon Deacons led NC State 14-0 two weeks ago but were outscored 34-10 from there. That’s probably a bad sign against a Tech team that seems to have some 60-minute staying power (the Jackets are at least +15 in every quarter).

Current line: Tech -13.5 | SP+ projection: Tech by 14.1 | FPI projection: Tech by 11.7

Utah State at No. 18 Vanderbilt (12:45 p.m., SECN). We don’t yet know how good these teams are — USU has overachieved against SP+ projections by 15.0 points per game (10th nationally) while Vandy is at +16.8 (eighth). Clark Lea’s Commodores are likely quite a bit better than Bronco Mendenhall’s Aggies, but if Miles Davis and the USU run game get going, they could make this uncomfortable for a bit.

Current line: Vandy -23.5 (up from -21.5) | SP+ projection: Vandy by 24.2 | FPI projection: Vandy by 22.7

Saturday afternoon

Auburn at No. 9 Texas A&M (3:30 p.m., ESPN). Since 2013, these teams have played games decided by scores of 45-41, 43-41, 41-38, 28-24 and 13-10. The matchup scores pretty high on the “potential nonsense” scale, and it’s a huge game for both teams: Auburn is a projected favorite in only two games the rest of the season and needs to initiate a rally before Georgia and Missouri come to town next month. A&M, meanwhile, needs to get to 6-0 before a three-game SEC road trip. A&M gives up lots of big plays, but Auburn doesn’t make many.

Current line: A&M -6.5 | SP+ projection: A&M by 5.0 | FPI projection: A&M by 4.7

No. 15 Tennessee at Mississippi State (4:15 p.m., SECN). Tennessee has reverted to its track meet days, scoring at least 41 points in every game and allowing at least 24 in three. The Vols are also very good. Mississippi State might be too. The Bulldogs have overachieved against SP+ projections by 9.5 points per game this season, and, well, if they hit that mark Saturday, they’re 5-0.

Current line: Vols -7.5 | SP+ projection: Vols by 7.7 | FPI projection: Vols by 6.5

UCLA at Northwestern (3:30 p.m., BTN). I can’t tell you to actually watch this game — I have a strong sense of morbid curiosity, but it only goes so far. Still, I bring this game up for one reason: UCLA has a 22% chance of going 0-12 this season, per SP+, and this is the only game remaining in which the Bruins aren’t double-digit projected underdogs. Lose this one, and 0-12 odds skyrocket.

Current line: NU -6.5 | SP+ projection: NU by 2.0 | FPI projection: NU by 7.0

Saturday evening

Arizona at No. 14 Iowa State (7 p.m., ESPN). The first Arizona-ISU game since 1968 is a big one: The teams are a combined 7-0, and the winner will be in the top tier of Big 12 contenders. When Rocco Becht and ISU attempt to pass — a semi-frequent occurrence because of a shaky run game — it will be strength vs. strength. Becht is quite efficient, but ‘Zona ranks second nationally in yards allowed per dropback.

Current line: ISU -5.5 | SP+ projection: ISU by 8.3 | FPI projection: ISU by 2.8

Appalachian State at Boise State (7:30 p.m., FS1). Boise State is shifting into gear behind a ridiculously explosive run game and an aggressive defense. App State is struggling offensively, but the Mountaineers’ defense ranks second nationally in havoc rate (TFLs, passes defended and forced fumbles per play) and dominates third downs. Can they score enough to make things interesting?

Current line: BSU -16.5 | SP+ projection: BSU by 18.0 | FPI projection: BSU by 12.9

Late Saturday

FCS: No. 10 Idaho at No. 4 Montana (10:15 p.m., ESPN2). Time for the Little Brown Stein! BYU-Colorado is the only late game in FBS, and the Big Sky gets a national showcase. Idaho has lost a pair of FBS games by just six combined points and boasts a super fun dual-threat QB in Joshua Wood. Montana can either throw over you (Keali’i Ah Yat is averaging 287.7 passing yards per game) or run through you (Eli Gillman is averaging 9.1 yards per carry). The Big Sky loves a good rock fight, but this one has track meet potential.

SP+ projection: Griz by 13.1


Smaller-school showcase

We always save a shout-out for the glorious lower levels of the sport. In addition to Idaho-Montana, here are three more games you should track.

FCS: No. 18 South Dakota at No. 1 North Dakota State (2 p.m., ESPN+). Before the season, I thought this might be the FCS game of the year. South Dakota stumbled early, however, and will now try to beat FCS’ best team with turnovers and random big plays. NDSU has been in fifth gear all season, winning three games by a combined 138-17. The skill corps combo of RB Barika Kpeenu and WR Bryce Lance is unfair.

SP+ projection: NDSU by 25.7

FCS: Brown at Harvard (6 p.m., ESPN+). The Ivy League looked fantastic in its season debut last week, and these teams — which beat poor Stetson and Georgetown by a combined 105-7 — were as good as anyone. Both teams created loads of big-pass plays, and whoever prevents them better in this one (probably Harvard) moves to 2-0.

SP+ projection: Harvard by 18.1

Division II: No. 8 California (Pa.) at No. 4 Slippery Rock (6 p.m., local streaming). I named Slippery Rock as a small-school team you should adopt, and the Rock have responded with wins both dramatic (overtime over Shepherd) and resounding (42-0 over Shippensburg). Now comes a big test. The Cal Vulcans are allowing 4.8 yards per play and forcing loads of turnovers, and safety Alexie Sangster Jr. might be one of the best DBs in Division II.

SP+ projection: The Rock by 8.0

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Week 5 preview: Georgia-Alabama, key conference matchups, plus quarterbacks to know

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Week 5 preview: Georgia-Alabama, key conference matchups, plus quarterbacks to know

One of the most anticipated weekends on the 2025 college football calendar is upon us.

The headliner comes Saturday night when No. 6 Oregon visits No. 3 Penn State. A potentially season-defining occasion, the clash of Big Ten powers, will test quarterbacks Drew Allar (Penn State) and Dante Moore (Oregon), Nittany Lions coach James Franklin and the Ducks’ backbone as they step into the hostile confines of Beaver Stadium in Week 5.

Elsewhere, eyes will fall on a trio of juicy SEC matchups: AlabamaGeorgia, AuburnTexas A&M and Ole MissLSU, all of which could hold significant implications for the conference title race and the College Football Playoff field.

Ahead of a series of high-level games, our college football reporters deliver their insights on keys to the weekend’s biggest matchups, five quarterbacks putting themselves on the map this fall and the best quotes so far from Week 5. — Eli Lederman

Jump to:
Georgia-Alabama | Quarterbacks to know
Key conference matchups
Quotes of the Week

What does each team need to capitalize on to win?

Georgia: If the Bulldogs are going to defeat the Crimson Tide for only the second time in the past 11 meetings, they’ll have to avoid getting themselves in another big hole — and take advantage of playing Alabama at home for the first time in nearly 10 years.

In last season’s 41-34 loss in Tuscaloosa, the Bulldogs trailed by three touchdowns before the end of the first quarter and by 28 points less than 18 minutes into the game. Georgia put together a furious rally in the fourth quarter, scoring three straight touchdowns to grab a 34-33 lead.

The Crimson Tide won on Jalen Milroe‘s 75-yard scoring pass to Ryan Williams with 2:18 to go.

Georgia had a similar slow start in its 44-41 victory in overtime at Tennessee on Sept. 13. The Volunteers scored touchdowns on their first three possessions to take a 21-7 lead, and the Bulldogs had to come from behind on the road. They were fortunate that Tennessee missed a 43-yard field goal attempt to take the lead near the end of regulation.

The Bulldogs didn’t do a good job of containing Milroe last season. He threw for 374 yards with two touchdowns and ran for 117 yards with two scores, including several long runs to keep drives alive. New Tide quarterback Ty Simpson isn’t as fast as Milroe, but he also isn’t a statue standing in the pocket.

Williams burned Georgia’s secondary on some big plays last season, finishing with six catches for 177 yards. The Bulldogs had similar problems against Tennessee’s fast-paced offense, and they’ll have to shore up those mistakes and play better on the back end. Getting pressure on Simpson would also help; the Bulldogs had only four sacks in their first three games this season.

On offense, Georgia needs to do a better job of protecting quarterback Gunner Stockton, who took too many hits at Tennessee. The Bulldogs need to find more ways to get the ball into the hands of Zachariah Branch, and tight ends Oscar Delp and Lawson Luckie also need to get their share of touches. Shoring up the right side of the offensive line, which has been a trouble spot, will allow them to be more involved in the passing game. — Mark Schlabach

Alabama: It has not been pretty for Alabama on the road under Kalen DeBoer. Alabama is 2-4 since he became head coach, including a 31-17 loss to Florida State to open the season. In that loss, the Crimson Tide looked lethargic at times and ended up being beaten up front on both sides of the ball. So to give themselves any chance against Georgia, their first road game since Week 1, they simply must play better on the offensive and defensive lines. Getting defensive lineman Tim Keenan III back from an ankle injury will be huge in that respect. Alabama has struggled to rush the passer without him, and has only four sacks on the season. Georgia has done a nice job using Gunner Stockton in the run game when needed, so slowing him down is also going to be key. That is also an area in which Alabama struggled against the Seminoles.

On the other side of the ball, offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb said it would continue to rotate its starting offensive line unit to find the right combination. Getting Jam Miller back at running back is also is a big addition, not only because of his running ability but his presence as a pass blocker in the backfield. But more than anything, defensive coordinator Kane Wommack said the team was eager to prove it has learned how to handle adversity in-game, something that cost it in the opener.

“There’s a difference when you have to go on the road, particularly in the SEC and in a hostile environment and respond to adversity,” Wommack said. “At times, we have been a team that has been reactionary to adversity, and we’ve got to be more responsive. It’s at the forefront of our minds, and I expect to see a very responsive football team on Saturday.” — Andrea Adelson


Five quarterbacks who are putting themselves on the map

Fernando Mendoza

Curt Cignetti found a gem via the transfer portal yet again. Mendoza was solid at Cal the past two years, but he was surrounded with little talent and playing in an offense that probably didn’t maximize his skill set. Turned loose at Indiana, he has looked like a genuine Heisman Trophy candidate, including a dominant five-touchdown performance in a win over Illinois. For the season, Mendoza has 14 touchdown passes without an interception.

Tommy Castellanos

When Castellanos talked smack about Alabama this summer, it became a national punchline. When he backed it up with a win over the Tide in Week 1, he had the last laugh. Through three games, Castellanos’ 91.6 Total QBR ranks third nationally, though he’ll be in for a test the next two weeks — a road trip to Virginia on Friday for what could be a shootout and then a showdown against rival Miami. If Castellanos takes down another top-five team, the Heisman might be his to lose.

Beau Pribula

A part of the same class as Drew Allar, Pribula wasn’t able to get onto the field with any regularity at Penn State. He entered the portal and landed at Missouri, but he didn’t win the starting job there until just before the opener. And yet, once he was given his chance to shine, Pribula has looked like a star. He has racked up 11 TDs so far this season and has the Tigers undefeated and trending up in the rankings.

Brendon Lewis

The sixth-year senior has been through his share of growing pains. He was a well-regarded recruit at Colorado but was part of the brutal 2021 season that led to the arrival of coach Deion Sanders, then transferred to Nevada, where his team struggled again. Now he has found the right fit at Memphis, where he has the Tigers 4-0 and well positioned to snag the Group of 6’s playoff spot.

Drew Mestemaker

North Texas is 4-0 and Mestemaker has 10 TD passes and no picks. It’d be a great story if that was all there was to it. But this rags-to-riches tale goes much deeper. Mestemaker wasn’t even the starter at his high school and arrived at UNT as a walk-on. He got the start in last year’s bowl game after Chandler Morris entered the portal, then beat out Reese Poffenbarger for the starting job this fall. He has rewarded the Mean Green’s belief with a red-hot start to the season. — David Hale


Biggest things that need to happen in these matchups

Auburn-Texas A&M: This series has been a strange one since 2021. The Aggies won twice at home, both times by 17 points. Auburn won twice at home, by three in 2022 and then two last year, in a 43-41 upset in four overtimes. This game, in College Station, will be another interesting one. The Aggies are coming off a bye week after their upset of Notre Dame, their first nonconference road win against an AP top-10 team since 1979. Auburn lost 24-17 at Oklahoma and is 0-5 under Hugh Freeze against ranked teams on the road. For the Tigers, they’ll first need to shore up an offensive line that gave up eight sacks on Jackson Arnold from a standard pass rush. But Auburn will look to move the ball with its rushing attack (198 yards per game, 5.0 yards per carry) against the Aggies, who are giving up 139 yards per game on the ground and are 102nd nationally in scoring defense at 28.7 points. But if the Aggies can get Arnold into being one-dimensional and having to play from behind, that will give them an advantage. They can do so by utilizing the dynamic duo of Mario Craver, the SEC’s leading receiver with 443 yards, even with the bye week (he had seven catches for 207 yards against Notre Dame), and KC Concepcion, who had four catches for 82 yards against the Irish. — Dave Wilson

LSU-Ole Miss: Last season’s showdown went to overtime in Baton Rouge. Expect another tight battle that comes down to details and who capitalizes on opportunities. Third-down conversions are going to be essential. Ole Miss’ offense is 5-of-17 on third and medium (3 to 7 yards) this season, and LSU’s defense is getting stops on 14 of 22 chances in that spot. This is where Lane Kiffin’s decision at QB becomes even more critical. Trinidad Chambliss is averaging 12.3 yards per carry on third downs and has yet to take a third-down sack. Can he be efficient in those high-pressure moments against the best defense he has faced? For LSU’s offense, the big question is injured running back Caden Durham‘s availability and finding answers in the run game so Garrett Nussmeier isn’t frequently stuck in third-and-long. The Tigers’ average third-down distance this season has been 7.9 yards, which ranks 114th in FBS, according to ESPN Research. — Max Olson

Oregon-Penn State: Quarterback Drew Allar needs to be a reason — perhaps the reason — why the Nittany Lions notch a signature win in a game in which they have most of the advantages. Allar wasn’t overly sharp in his past two performances, completing fewer than 58% of his passes against both Villanova and Florida International. He will need to be sharper against a talented but quite young Oregon defense, and start to change his big-game rep. Oregon must show it can handle one of the toughest environments in college football, Beaver Stadium at night in a White Out. The game marks a big growth opportunity for Ducks quarterback Dante Moore, a first-year starter, and also promising young players such as wide receiver Dakorien Moore and defensive backs Brandon Finney Jr. and Aaron Flowers. The Ducks visited Michigan and Wisconsin in 2024, but they haven’t faced an elite Big Ten opponent on the road until now. — Adam Rittenberg


Quotes of the Week

“We need this place rocking,” Penn State coach James Franklin said ahead of the Nittany Lions’ White Out game against No. 6 Oregon. “Need to have a distinct home-field advantage. We always do, but I’m expecting this to be an environment like no one has ever seen.”

“We’ll do everything we can to be prepared for that environment for sure,” said Oregon’s Dan Lanning, who was also asked about the song “Mo Bamba”, which has become a fixture of No. 3 Penn State home games. “I don’t love that song.”

“I would say he’s probably the hottest quarterback right now in all of college football,” Georgia’s Kirby Smart said of Alabama’s Ty Simpson ahead of the Bulldogs’ Week 5 visit from the No. 17 Crimson Tide. “His two last outings, I don’t know [if] I’ve seen an incompletion. The ball does not hit the ground. He’s been accurate. He’s been quick with the ball. They’re really hard to defend because of their skill. They’ve got tremendous skill — receivers, backs, tight ends. But you got to have a trigger guy that can get those guys the ball and they do.”

“We ain’t with that get-back stuff,” Colorado’s Deion Sanders said as his team prepares to face No. 25 BYU nine months after the Cougars blew out the Buffaloes in the 2024 Valero Alamo Bowl. “I ain’t with that get-back stuff. I’m with that let’s-get-them stuff. They played their butts off, kicked our butts in the bowl game. Now we have a whole new team.”

“I always love when you guys say that, like, ‘Oh, OK, now we’ll go actually, like, try and game-plan really hard,” Ole Miss’ Lane Kiffin said with the Rebels set to host No. 4 LSU on Saturday. “It’s OK. My boss says the same things when we play Arkansas. ‘Hey, I really need this one.’ Oh, OK, well then we’ll actually, like, try this week. We were just going to not try.”

“Is it hot in here or is it just me every week?” Oklahoma State’s Mike Gundy speaking to reporters three days after the Cowboys 19-12 loss to Tulsa and less than 24 hours before he was fired Tuesday morning after his 21st season in charge of the program.

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From unsettled playoff races to home run records: What to watch in MLB’s final weekend

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From unsettled playoff races to home run records: What to watch in MLB's final weekend

We made it to the final weekend of the 2025 MLB regular season.

It has been one wild, fun ride, especially if you’re a fan of the Milwaukee Brewers or Seattle Mariners or Cleveland Guardians — less so, especially recently, if you’re a fan of the Detroit Tigers or New York Mets.

What’s at stake this weekend? From teams playing out the string to those who are battling for a chance to play October baseball, here are the biggest storylines to follow over the next three days.


Battle for the AL Central: Miracle comeback or all-time collapse?

The American League Central was over … except it wasn’t. The Detroit Tigers finally snapped their eight-game losing streak with a 4-2 win over the Cleveland Guardians on Thursday, but, the Guardians have still won 17 of their last 20 games while the Tigers have lost 11 of 13. The teams are now tied for the division lead heading into the final weekend, and Cleveland holds the tiebreaker having won the season series — putting the Guardians on the verge of the biggest September comeback in MLB history to win a pennant or division (currently 8.5 games when the 1964 Cardinals chased down the Phillies)

Check out this timeline of the AL Central standings and odds for the Tigers and Guardians to win the division, via FanGraphs:

July 8: Cleveland 15.5 games back of Detroit (Tigers: 98.8%, Guardians: 0.1%)

Aug. 25: 12.5 games back (99.9%, 0.0%)

Sept. 1: 10.5 games back (99.8%, 0.2%)

Sept. 10: 9.5 games back (99.9%, 0.1%)

Sept. 17: 4.5 games back (95.4%, 4.6%)

Sept. 20: 1 game back (62.3%, 37.7%)

Sept. 24: Cleveland up one game (18.8%, 81.2%)

Sept. 25: Tied for division lead (34.1%, 65.9%)

The Guardians now lead the division by that tiebreaker heading into the final weekend after just winning two out of three games against the Tigers. The The Guardians host the Rangers while the Tigers are on the road in Boston, and since the Red Sox have yet to clinch a wild card, that Detroit-Boston series will have a definite playoff feel to it.


But maybe the Tigers can win the final wild card?

The Tigers do at least have a fallback option: They’re one game ahead of the Houston Astros, who snapped a five-game losing streak with a win on Thursday, and just one game behind the Red Sox. Detroit owns the tiebreaker over Houston, so the Astros will have to finish with a better record to claim the final wild card and avoid missing their first postseason since 2016. The Astros finish in Anaheim but will be without their top two pitchers in Hunter Brown and Framber Valdez, who started the final two games of the series against the Athletics.

One important note for the Tigers: Tarik Skubal last started on Tuesday, so he would be ready to go on four days of rest Sunday, if needed. If the Tigers have already clinched the wild card (or division title) by then, look for them to skip Skubal and have him ready to start Game 1 of the wild-card series on Tuesday.

To make matters even more confusing: The Red Sox, Guardians, Tigers and Astros could all finish 88-74, which is the scenario if the Tigers take two of three against the Red Sox, the Guardians win two of three against Texas, and the Astros sweep the Angels. If that happens, the Astros are out, having lost the season series against all three teams and owning the worst winning percentage against the other three clubs.


Who wins the final National League wild card?

On Sept. 1, the Mets had a 94.5% chance of making the playoffs via FanGraphs, but after going 11-17 in August, they’ve gone 9-13 in September. Their collapse might not be as disastrous as Detroit’s, but the Tigers also don’t possess a $340 million payroll. The Mets’ second-half woes have allowed the Cincinnati Reds and Arizona Diamondbacks to stay alive — and the Reds are only 12-10 in September, having just lost two to the Pirates. The Diamondbacks, meanwhile, were seven games under at the trade deadline when they dealt away Eugenio Suarez, Josh Naylor, Merrill Kelly and Shelby Miller, essentially punting on the season.

The Mets beat the Cubs on Thursday and the Reds beat the Pirates — thanks to Noelvi Marte‘s home run robbery in the ninth to preserve the 2-1 victory — so the Mets head into Friday at 82-77, the Reds at 81-78 and the Diamondbacks at 80-79. The schedule and probable starters for each team:

Mets at Miami Marlins (Brandon Sproat, Clay Holmes/Sean Manaea, David Peterson)

The Mets haven’t officially announced their Saturday and Sunday starters, although Holmes and Manaea have been tag-teaming starts lately while Peterson would be in line to pitch Sunday, although he has hit a wall and has a 12.54 ERA over his past five starts. The Marlins pushed Sandy Alcantara back a day to start Friday’s series opener.

Reds at Milwaukee Brewers (Zack Littell, Andrew Abbott, Brady Singer)

Hunter Greene started on Wednesday, so he’s in line to start the first game of the playoffs if the Reds make it. Quinn Priester is scheduled to start for the Brewers on Friday and, get this, they’ve won 17 consecutive games he has started.

Diamondbacks at San Diego Padres (Zac Gallen, Eduardo Rodriguez, Brandon Pfaadt)

Gallen had a rocky first four months but is 6-2 with a 2.82 ERA since the beginning of August. How all-in the Padres are will be determined by whether the NL West is still up for grabs.

Finally, there’s a good chance the tiebreaker comes into play — something the Diamondbacks are familiar with after tying with the Mets and Atlanta Braves last season for the final two wild-card spots, only to be eliminated via the tiebreaker rule. This year’s scenarios:

• Reds over Mets (won season series 4-2).

• Reds over Diamondbacks (won season series 4-2).

• Mets/Diamondbacks: To be determined. They split the season series and the second tiebreaker is intradivision record, with the Mets currently 24-24 and the Diamondbacks 25-23. The third tiebreaker is intraleague record and the Mets are 58-53 and the Diamondbacks 55-56.


Who wins the AL East?

The Toronto Blue Jays were five games up on Sept. 16 but have gone 2-6 while the New York Yankees have gone 6-1 — so now, the two teams are tied. Toronto does own the tiebreaker, having won the season series 8-5. The Yankees host the Baltimore Orioles to finish up while the Blue Jays host the Tampa Bay Rays. Scheduled starters:

Blue Jays: Shane Bieber, Trey Yesavage, Kevin Gausman

Yankees: Undecided, Cam Schlittler, Luis Gil

The Yankees started Max Fried on Wednesday and Carlos Rodon on Thursday, with an eye turned to starting them in the first two games of a wild-card series, so they’re out of the picture this weekend. Will Warren is the likely starter Friday.

The interesting name here is Yesavage, who has made just two career starts (allowing five runs in nine innings) after a recent call-up from the minors, where he posted a 3.12 ERA with an incredible 160 strikeouts in just 98 innings. The Blue Jays have already moved Jose Berrios to the bullpen, so it’s possible that Yesavage is part of the postseason rotation alongside Gausman and Bieber, with Max Scherzer and Chris Bassitt the other possibilities.

The other factor in play: If Gausman, who has been Toronto’s top starter in the second half with a 2.49 ERA, is needed Sunday to secure the division title, that would leave him out of the wild-card series if the Blue Jays end up finishing second in the division.

The AL’s top seed remains in play, with the red-hot Seattle Mariners a game behind the Yankees and Blue Jays. The Mariners do lose the tiebreaker to both teams, so they would have to finish with the better record to secure the No. 1 seed. The Mariners host the Los Angeles Dodgers to finish the season.


Raleigh’s improbable season continues, and after hitting home runs No. 59 and No. 60 in Wednesday’s AL West-clinching win for the Mariners, he’s two away from tying Judge’s AL record of 62.

Of course, “catch” has another meaning here: Can Raleigh catch Judge in the MVP race? Maybe he already has, as voters might find it impossible to ignore a catcher who has hit 60 home runs. Oddsmakers currently have Raleigh as the very slight betting favorite. But Judge, with another historic offensive season under his belt, holds a sizable lead in Baseball-Reference WAR, a metric voters won’t ignore. If Raleigh manages to get to 62, it can only help his case.


How many 50-home-run seasons will we have?

Other than the Raleigh Watch, it feels like the barrage of 50-homer seasons has flown a bit under the radar. We also have Kyle Schwarber with 56, Shohei Ohtani with 54 and Aaron Judge with 51 — matching 1998 (Mark McGwire, Sammy Sosa, Ken Griffey Jr., Greg Vaughn) and 2001 (Barry Bonds, Sosa, Luis Gonzalez, Alex Rodriguez) as the only seasons with four 50-homer sluggers. In fact, no other season has more than two.

But we could get five 50-home-run hitters with Eugenio Suarez sitting on 49, looking to join his Mariners teammate in the exclusive club. Suarez hit 36 of those home runs with Arizona before the trade to Seattle, but if he gets to 50, the Mariners will match the 1961 Yankees with Roger Maris (61) and Mickey Mantle (54) as the only team to employ two 50-homer hitters in the same season.

As for Schwarber, he’s two home runs away from tying Ryan Howard’s franchise record of 58, while Ohtani has already matched his own club record he set last season.


Who wins the NL batting title?

While Judge has the AL batting title locked up, the NL race is down to the Philadelphia PhilliesTrea Turner, hitting .305, and the Chicago CubsNico Hoerner hitting .299, who will need a big weekend to catch Turner. Turner has been out since Sept. 7 with a hamstring injury but has taken live batting practice and might return this weekend, although manager Rob Thomson just said on Wednesday that Turner is still running at only 75%. At least it looks like the winner will finish with a .300 average; if Turner returns, he would have to go 0-for-11 to fall under .300.


This is the Rockies we’re talking about, so you already know it isn’t a good kind of history. They enter their final series at San Francisco with a rotation ERA of 6.64, tied with the 1996 Tigers as the worst in modern MLB history (since 1901). A few random factors about Rockies starters:

• They have thrown 100 pitches in a game just twice all season: Kyle Freeland threw 100 pitches on April 8 and German Marquez threw 103 on June 29.

• The only Rockies starter to pitch eight innings in a game: Freeland threw eight scoreless innings in a 3-0 win over the Padres — at Coors Field — on Sept. 5.

• The Rockies have three starters with at least 15 losses (Freeland, Marquez and Antonio Senzatela), the first team to do that since the 2003 Tigers.

• Rockies starters have allowed seven or more runs in a game 26 times.

We could keep going. It was an ugly season in Colorado.


A 163-game season? Devers has a shot

Here’s an off-the-radar storyline to watch this weekend, courtesy of ESPN research: Rafael Devers, if he plays in all three games against the Rockies, will become the first to play a 163-game season since Justin Morneau for the 2008 Twins.

There have been five players to play a 163-game season in the last 30 years. Morneau that season, Hideki Matsui for the 2003 Yankees, Albert Belle for the 1998 White Sox, Cal Ripken Jr. for the 1996 Orioles and Todd Zeile for the 1996 Phillies/Orioles.

Morneau’s 163rd game came in a tiebreaker against the White Sox to decide the AL Central and all the other players were on teams that had games declared ties because they were rained out after they became official (which was the rule at the time). Todd Zeile is the only player on that list to be traded during a 163-game season (like Devers was this season).

Of course, all of them pale in comparison to a record that will never be broken. In 1962, Dodgers star Maury Wills played all 162 regularly scheduled games, plus all three games of the best-of-three regular season playoff series with the Giants — for a total of 165 games played.


Will this be Clayton Kershaw‘s final start or game?

The future Hall of Famer announced his retirement last week and made his final start at Dodger Stadium last Friday, but he’s scheduled to start the season finale on Sunday in Seattle. With the Dodgers’ postseason rotation likely to feature Shohei Ohtani, Blake Snell, Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Tyler Glasnow, Kershaw looks like the odd man out. Keep in mind, though, that Ohtani has had at least six days off between all of his starts, and Snell has also had five or six days off for his starts, so it’s possible the Dodgers will use more than four starters in the postseason.

Kershaw pitched an inning in relief on Wednesday, making himself available rather than throwing his usual bullpen session between starts. It’s possible he pitches in relief in the postseason.

“We have six amazing starters,” Kershaw said. “And so it’s just … yeah, I can do the math. So if I want to be a part of it in any way, I’ll do whatever they want.”

With the Dodgers relegated to the best-of-three first round, however, there’s the chance he never gets in a game if they’re quickly eliminated.

With that in mind: Watch Sunday’s Dodgers game. It might be the last time you see one of the best pitchers of all time.

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