Passan: An embarrassing Game 3 loss laid the Yankees’ faults bare
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Jeff PassanESPN
NEW YORK — The empty blue seats started to grow in numbers during the sixth inning, by which time it had become abundantly clear that the first two games of the American League Championship Series were no accident or anomaly. The Houston Astros are a better baseball team than the New York Yankees — better at pitching and hitting, better at things big and little, better to the point that those who had arrived at Yankee Stadium for Game 3 looking for a sliver of hope were leaving mid-inning convinced it would not arrive.
They were right. The Astros overwhelmed the Yankees in a 5-0 victory on Saturday night to take a 3-0 series lead, and it’s only a matter of time before Houston razes the remainder of New York’s 2022 season. The game itself served as a microcosm of the American League. The Astros own the league — and no team owns the American League without owning the Yankees too.
However superior the Astros might have looked entering this series, they’ve picked apart the Yankees with such thoroughness, such clinical precision, that those at the stadium no longer knew who exactly to blame. They booed everyone, including Aaron Judge, who this season hit 62 home runs and is going to win AL Most Valuable Player but hasn’t performed near that level this postseason. In the 400 level, they chanted “Fire Cashman,” targeting general manager Brian Cashman, who in the past four full seasons has constructed teams that won 100, 103, 92 and 99 games. These frustrations reinforce the reality that the blessing of 27 championships is likewise a curse that renders itself every year the Yankees don’t win another.
And unless New York does what only one team ever has and comes back from a 3-0 championship series deficit, the Yankees’ drought will reach 13 seasons, the second longest in their history, and they’ll lose their fifth consecutive ALCS, a record for any team.
Most troubling, perhaps, is the conundrum in which the Yankees find themselves. Five years ago, when they met the Astros in the ALCS for the first time, it was supposed to be the start of a new rivalry. And it is — the teams and fan bases share plenty of vitriol — but only because the Astros cheated in 2017. Not because the two teams are competitive — and certainly not evenly matched. They aren’t. Houston won in seven games in 2017 and in six in 2019. New York didn’t even make it far enough to play them in 2018, 2020 or 2021. And this year, now, the Astros are on the cusp of the soundest dismantling yet.
Look at Game 3. The Astros started Cristian Javier, who had thrown all of 1⅓ innings this postseason. That’s not a knock on Javier but a reminder that Houston is so good at developing quality major league pitching, so deep in its rotation and bullpen, that the Astros simply didn’t need to use him yet. Javier carved the Yankees’ lineup. They didn’t hit a ball out of the infield until the fourth inning. New York’s one-two punch was weak contact and strikeouts.
In the meantime, the Astros stared down Gerrit Cole — the ace whom the Yankees poached from Houston with a mega-contract following the 2019 season — and capitalized on the limited opportunities they were given. A two-out error in center field that kept the second inning alive was followed by a Chas McCormick home run. In the sixth, Yankees manager Aaron Boone pulled Cole after he allowed a double, a walk and a ducksnort single — and reliever Lou Trivino allowed all three inherited runners to score.
After Anthony Rizzo walked with one out in the bottom of the inning, Astros manager Dusty Baker pulled his starter too — and Hector Neris wiggled out of it, followed by more scoreless ball from Ryne Stanek, Hunter Brown, Rafael Montero and Bryan Abreu, none of whom played a significant role the previous time these two met in the ALCS. And that, perhaps more than anything, is the most frustrating part to those who left early, who chanted, whose great joy as the Yankees thrived early in this season has melted into a concoction of disappointment, disillusionment and straight-up anger: The Astros, even as they weathered the losses of Cole and George Springer and Carlos Correa and others, have managed to get better; and the Yankees are perpetually stagnant, a simulacrum of the late-1990s dynasty to which every Yankees team is bound to be compared.
This year, the team seemed to rely almost entirely on Judge, which is even scarier when you remember that Game 4 could be his final game as a Yankee. He will hit free agency after the World Series ends. If the Yankees re-sign him, it will cost perhaps $40 million a year well into his 30s, the sort of contract that could limit the other areas in which they need to improve so long as the team doesn’t extend its budget. And if they don’t, gone is their greatest source of offense, which this series suggests might be a problem even with him.
In three ALCS games, the Yankees have scored four runs. They are batting .128. Their on-base plus slugging (.435) is lower than the Astros’ slugging percentage by itself (.446). The Yankees have struck out 41 times as compared to 19 by Houston. They’ve homered twice, while the Astros have hit five home runs. It’s three games, yes, and drawing large conclusions from small samples is folly, sure. But what is playoff baseball if not a small sample? And if the only number that truly matters to the Yankees is 28 — their next championship — then nobody in the organization can look at this series as anything less than a failure.
After Game 3, as much as the Yankees players gritted their teeth and vowed to fight and promised to hunt for whatever it took to turn this series around, to do to Houston what the Boston Red Sox did to them in 2004, they recognize the herculean nature of the task. The Yankees’ offense is flawed, yes, but even more than that, the Astros’ pitching is a juggernaut. As easy as it is for those who left early — and those who stayed to the end and grumbled all the way — to blame the Yankees’ hitting, crediting the Astros’ pitching is only fair.
It’s not satisfying, though. Unless the Yankees take Games 4 and 5 and force a trip back to Houston to put at least a little pressure on the Astros, this is the sort of series that sticks with an organization. Minus the injuries that whittled the Yankees’ bullpen down to a shell of itself — and that can’t be ignored — this is mostly the roster the team envisioned using as it went for title No. 28. The Astros are telling New York, unequivocally, it’s not enough.
Which leaves the Yankees in an uncomfortable place: Not only are they perpetually chasing the Astros, their road to face Houston seems only to get harder. They’re contending with a Tampa Bay Rays team that is excellent annually and a Toronto Blue Jays team hungry for more and a Red Sox team certain to rebound and a Baltimore Orioles team that’s on the come up — and that’s just in their own division. Nobody is going to cry for the Yankees, but nobody should suggest their path is easy, either.
Easier, because of the money, the resources, the desire for many of the best to play in pinstripes? Sure. That’s fair. And it’s why so much schadenfreude accompanies every early exit from the Yankees. Losing doesn’t change who they’ve been. It just reinforces what they are. Now, today, that’s a lesser team than the Houston Astros.
It’s 2025 MLB All-Star Home Run Derby day in Atlanta!
Some of the most dynamic home run hitters in baseball will be taking aim at the Truist Park stands on Monday (8 p.m. ET on ESPN) in one of the most anticipated events of the summer.
While the prospect of a back-to-back champion is out of the picture — 2024 winner Teoscar Hernandez is not a part of this year’s field — a number of exciting stars will be taking the field, including Atlanta’s own Matt Olson, who replaced Ronald Acuna Jr. just three days before the event. Will Olson make a run in front of his home crowd? Will Cal Raleigh show off the power that led to 38 home runs in the first half? Or will one of the younger participants take the title?
We have your one-stop shop for everything Derby related, from predictions to live updates once we get underway to analysis and takeaways at the night’s end.
MLB Home Run Derby field
Cal Raleigh, Seattle Mariners (38 home runs in 2025)
James Wood, Washington Nationals (24)
Junior Caminero, Tampa Bay Rays (23)
Byron Buxton, Minnesota Twins (21)
Brent Rooker, Athletics (20)
Matt Olson, Atlanta Braves (17)
Jazz Chisholm Jr., New York Yankees (17)
Oneil Cruz, Pittsburgh Pirates (16)
Live updates
Who is going to win the Derby and who will be the runner-up?
Jeff Passan: Raleigh. His swing is perfect for the Derby: He leads MLB this season in both pull percentage and fly ball percentage, so it’s not as if he needs to recalibrate it to succeed. He has also become a prolific hitter from the right side this season — 16 home runs in 102 at-bats — and his ability to switch between right- and left-handed pitching offers a potential advantage. No switch-hitter (or catcher for that matter) has won a Home Run Derby. The Big Dumper is primed to be the first, beating Buxton in the finals.
Alden Gonzalez: Cruz. He might be wildly inconsistent at this point in his career, but he is perfect for the Derby — young enough to possess the stamina required for a taxing event that could become exhausting in the Atlanta heat; left-handed, in a ballpark where the ball carries out better to right field; and, most importantly, capable of hitting balls at incomprehensible velocities. Raleigh will put on a good show from both sides of the plate but will come in second.
Buster Olney: Olson. He is effectively pinch-hitting for Acuna, and because he received word in the past 72 hours of his participation, he hasn’t had the practice rounds that the other competitors have been going through. But he’s the only person in this group who has done the Derby before, which means he has experienced the accelerated pace, adrenaline and push of the crowd.
His pitcher, Eddie Perez, knows something about performing in a full stadium in Atlanta. And, as Olson acknowledged in a conversation Sunday, the park generally favors left-handed hitters because of the larger distances that right-handed hitters must cover in left field.
Jesse Rogers: Olson. Home-field advantage will mean something this year as hitting in 90-plus degree heat and humidity will be an extra challenge in Atlanta. Olson understands that and can pace himself accordingly. Plus, he was a late addition. He has got nothing to lose. He’ll outlast the young bucks in the field. And I’m not putting Raleigh any lower than second — his first half screams that he’ll be in the finals against Olson.
Jorge Castillo: Wood. His mammoth power isn’t disputed — he can jack baseballs to all fields. But the slight defect in his power package is that he doesn’t hit the ball in the air nearly as often as a typical slugger. Wood ranks 126th out of 155 qualified hitters across the majors in fly ball percentage. And he still has swatted 24 home runs this season. So, in an event where he’s going to do everything he can to lift baseballs, hitting fly balls won’t be an issue, and Wood is going to show off that gigantic power en route to a victory over Cruz in the finals.
Who will hit the longest home run of the night — and how far?
Passan: Cruz hits the ball harder than anyone in baseball history. He’s the choice here, at 493 feet.
Gonzalez: If you exclude the Coors Field version, there have been just six Statcast-era Derby home runs that have traveled 497-plus feet. They were compiled by two men: Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton. James Wood — all 6-foot-7, 234 pounds of him — will become the third.
Olney: James Wood has the easy Stanton- and Judge-type power, and he will clear the Chophouse with the longest homer. Let’s say 497 feet.
Rogers: Hopefully he doesn’t injure himself doing it, but Buxton will break out his massive strength and crush a ball at least 505 feet. I don’t see him advancing far in the event, but for one swing, he’ll own the night.
Castillo: Cruz hits baseballs hard and far. He’ll crush a few bombs, and one will reach an even 500 feet.
Who is the one slugger fans will know much better after the Derby?
Passan: Buxton capped his first half with a cycle on Saturday, and he’ll carry that into the Derby, where he will remind the world why he was baseball’s No. 1 prospect in 2015. Buxton’s talent has never been in question, just his health. And with his body feeling right, he has the opportunity to put on a show fans won’t soon forget.
Olney: Caminero isn’t a big name and wasn’t a high-end prospect like Wood was earlier in his career. Just 3½ years ago, Caminero was dealt to the Rays by the Cleveland Guardians in a relatively minor November trade for pitcher Tobias Myers. But since then, he has refined his ability to cover inside pitches and is blossoming this year into a player with ridiculous power. He won’t win the Derby, but he’ll open some eyes.
What’s the one moment we’ll all be talking about long after this Derby ends?
Gonzalez: The incredible distances and velocities that will be reached, particularly by Wood, Cruz, Caminero, Raleigh and Buxton. The hot, humid weather at Truist Park will only aid the mind-blowing power that will be on display Monday night.
Rogers: The exhaustion on the hitter’s faces, swinging for home run after home run in the heat and humidity of Hot-lanta!
Castillo: Cruz’s 500-foot blast and a bunch of other lasers he hits in the first two rounds before running out of gas in the finals.
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