A look at the best team in Colorado: The Air Force Falcons
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Kyle Bonagura, ESPN Staff Writer
COLORADO SPRINGS, Colo. — Just outside Denver, in the Front Range Urban Corridor, the best college football team in Colorado is flying under the radar.
At the Air Force Academy, that is usually by design. The capability is a state secret.
In this context, though, success leads to visibility. Off to the best start by a service academy in more than two decades and carrying the nation’s fourth-longest winning streak (11), No. 22 Air Force (6-0) opens its defense of the Commander-in-Chief’s Trophy against Navy on Saturday (noon ET, CBS) as the top-ranked Group of 5 team in the country.
“We’ve always said if we go undefeated and win the conference, but we lose the Commander-in-Chief’s Trophy and we lose against one of the service academies, it’s a wasted year,” said senior linebacker Bo Richter. “We want to go out and dominate every week, but these games [against Army and Navy] just mean so much more.”
This year, the stakes are raised. The usual ramifications exist, but with each win, the Falcons inch closer toward the possibility of claiming the Group of 5’s New Year’s Six bowl berth — an accomplishment that would stand as one of the most significant by a service academy in college football’s modern era.
If it seems as if the Falcons have come out of nowhere to their current perch, it should not. They are the only Group of 5 team to win at least 10 games in the past three full seasons (2019, 2021, 2022) and one of just seven at the FBS level. Only Georgia, Ohio State, Alabama and Michigan have better winning percentages over those seasons.
If it seems improbable, that checks out. Air Force’s elevated success in recent years has come despite a confluence of events that seemingly should have made winning more difficult.
In an era when teams reload and fill holes through the transfer portal, Air Force cannot. While other schools can attract talent with even modest name, image and likeness benefits, Air Force cadets are not eligible for the same. This year, the NCAA adopted a rule change in the name of player safety that had an outsized impact on the triple-option offenses employed only by the service academies. Even the U.S. Congress passed a law in December that, after this season, will eliminate the opportunity for service academy graduates to defer their service requirements and pursue professional sports.
Given all of that, it’s hard to make sense of Air Force’s incredible run.
“I don’t know if you can, if you just leave it unfiltered,” said coach Troy Calhoun, the former Air Force player in his 17th year as his alma mater’s head coach. “It might not make sense.”
FOR CALHOUN, GAME WEEKS against Army and Navy always present a unique dynamic.
“What resonates so strongly is you have players on both teams that are going to go serve,” he said. “You don’t get along for those three hours, but in a much bigger picture, holy cow, you just never know where you could be. All over the world, we’re really joined at the hip, and you don’t know if that’s going to be in the Middle East or if that’s in Korea or wherever that may be. That’s the reality of this game more than anything else.”
Roughly seven years ago, Calhoun went on a coach’s tour to visit troops overseas. There were multiple stops in Europe and the Middle East. At Ramstein Air Base in Germany, he was greeted by current Air Force defensive assistant Anthony Wright. At Aviano Air Base in Italy, he ran into former players who were flying F-16 fighter jets. And in Bahrain he saw an old nemesis: former Navy quarterback Ricky Dobbs, who set the NCAA record for touchdown runs by a quarterback in 2009 (27).
“We wanted to beat him so bad,” Calhoun said. “But when you go interact with the human being, your thought is, ‘I’m so glad this guy is on our side.'”
All three service academies face similar challenges. It’s hard enough, anywhere in college football, to piece together enough good players to be competitive. Adding the additional obligation of military service, plus demanding academic and physical obligations on top of football has a way of thinning out the talent pool.
“That’s hard to find,” Calhoun said. “And then you want somebody who can make a play in the open field on Saturdays, too.”
The barriers to entry have always been steep. Few high school players enter the recruiting process with a future military career in mind. The dream of an NFL career is exponentially more prevalent, and for many of those kids, the thought of signing with Air Force, Army or Navy can represent an admission that it is unlikely to come true.
In 2019, a policy change removed the requirement for service academy graduates to spend two years on active duty before they were allowed to pursue a career in professional sports. Instead, they were able to seek a waiver to defer their service and pursue professional sports immediately after graduation.
The way Calhoun saw it, the waiver system made sense. It didn’t mean anyone was getting out of their service obligation, only that in some cases it would be delayed. In theory, it allowed the academies to recruit more ambitious future leaders, which, at their cores, is what the academies are all about.
However, last year a congressional bill reversed the 2019 decision, reestablishing the two-year service requirement, although it did retain the waiver option for players through the current senior class.
“We’re waiting to see [what happens], and, candidly, I think that would be a mistake for our country [to reinstitute the two-year waiting period],” Calhoun said. “If they were to go play in the NFL, it’s the rarest of the rare, but if you went for two or three years, you’re still going to serve a good number of years on active duty or in the reserves.
“Why would we deter that? Why would we want to take somebody that’s maybe looking at Duke, Stanford, Northwestern, Rice and the academies? We want that person. If they have those intangibles, the drive, the unity, the ability to build teamwork. We want them.”
Jacksonville Jaguars wide receivers coach Chad Hall was a standout running back and receiver at Air Force 2005-2007, and for the two years after graduation, he described himself as “the most boring 22-to-24-year-old you’ve ever met.”
That’s what it took to keep his NFL dream alive. Hall worked in aircraft maintenance after graduation.
“All I would do is wake up at 4 a.m., go to work, finish work, go train, go to sleep, wake up, do it all over again,” Hall said. “I didn’t take any leave during those two years just in case I had the opportunity to get into an [NFL] camp, I could take leave.”
When the opportunity arrived, he was ready. After Hall attended a pro day in Salt Lake City in March 2010, the Philadelphia Eagles signed him a few days later.
“For those next, really, two months, I flew to Philly on Sunday night, had practice Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday. Flew back Thursday on the 1:30 flight, landed in Salt Lake City, went straight to work,” Hall said. “Worked a half-day Thursday, got up, worked Friday, Saturday, Sunday until my flight and then flew back. I had leave saved up where I was able to take some days off, and my [Air Force] leadership was working with me.”
He went on to spend parts of five seasons in the NFL with the Eagles, San Francisco 49ers, Kansas City Chiefs and Jaguars.
For several current Air Force seniors, the possibility of making an immediate attempt at an NFL career while the rules still permit it is intriguing.
“I think I’m going to do it,” said Richter, who leads the team with 7.5 tackles for loss and will graduate as part of the winningest class in school history. “I know Trey Taylor, our safety is definitely going to try to do it. I wouldn’t be surprised if John Eldridge, our running back does it. There’s a lot of guys that are going to try to make that opportunity for themselves.”
Before Austin Cutting (2019) and Jordan Jackson (2022), it had been 20 years since an Air Force player was selected in the NFL draft. No one has been selected earlier than the sixth round.
AFTER LEADING THE nation in rushing yards the past three seasons, Air Force again ranks No. 1. The Falcons’ average (334.2) is nearly 60 yards more than Liberty‘s (274.6), the nation’s No. 2 rushing offense.
This comes despite an NCAA rule that was adopted in the offseason that prevents blocking below the waist when outside the tackle box, something Calhoun felt targeted the service academies.
“I mean, it had to be. Let’s be real here,” Calhoun said. “I am a full believer in player safety, and I don’t think this was a player safety item. I think part of it was there’s a style of play that you didn’t want to encounter. … The service academy part of it, I think that was a factor.”
Army coach Jeff Monken was so spooked by the perceived impact the rule change would have on the triple-option flexbone offense that he instituted wholesale changes in the offseason to include more snaps from the shotgun and more passing. After averaging 8.2 pass attempts per game over the past five seasons, the Black Knights are throwing the ball 16.2 times per game this year.
For the Falcons, there has been no noticeable difference. Only once in the past 20 years have they averaged more yards per carry (2011), and they’ve never averaged fewer penalties per game (2.67) in that same span than this year.
Part of the offense’s success this season is a credit to the emergence of first-year starting quarterback Zac Larrier, the former Mountain West Conference 200-meter track champion, who is second on the team with 473 yards rushing. However, the Falcons will be without Larrier, a senior, against Navy — and for the foreseeable future — after he injured a knee in the 34-27 win against Wyoming on Saturday.
Larrier was replaced in the fourth quarter against the Cowboys by senior Jensen Jones, who proceeded to lose fumbles on back-to-back snaps before later icing the game with a 14-yard run.
“I wouldn’t say [losing Larrier] really impacts us a lot,” center Thor Paglialong said. “Zac, Jensen, Ben [Brittain], they’ve all been taking reps, so we’re confident with whoever we put back there.”
It helps that the Air Force defense ranks No. 9 nationally in scoring (14.7 PPG), and although that number is impacted by the fewer possessions in game dictated by Air Force’s offensive approach, the Falcons still rank No. 9 among Group of 5 schools in points allowed per drive (1.6).
Only Oregon and LSU average more points per drive in the FBS than the Falcons (3.84), who are one of just four teams to score touchdowns on at least 50% of their offensive drives this season.
Without the option to add players through the transfer portal, Air Force — the same goes for Army and Navy — has become even more of an outlier. Perhaps that’s a strength. It would partially help explain how Air Force is winning in the face of disadvantages.
“Coach Calhoun said this a couple weeks ago, but we don’t get ready-made guys,” Richter said. “We develop talent here. That’s so true. You see coaches ID a guy they want and say, ‘That’s the guy who is going to be the future of this position.’ Then you see them pour into these guys and see them blossom.”
At 6-0, there’s a temptation for Air Force to look ahead. Going to the Peach Bowl to play, say, Alabama carries a lot more intrigue than the Mountain West’s best bowl bid to play a midtier Pac-12 team in Los Angeles at the end of the year.
Recently, Richter overheard a teammate talking about how they could go undefeated. He shut it down quickly.
“It’s cool that we’re 6-0, but no one is going to remember that Air Force was 6-0 halfway through the season if you lose three games and go 10-3,” Richter said. “Nobody would care.”
At least that’s the case in these Rocky Mountains parts.
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Greg Wyshynski, ESPN
Boston Bruins coach Jim Montgomery knows a thing or two about how quickly narratives can shift in the Stanley Cup playoffs.
“The first round is the wild, wild West. Always is,” he said after Boston won Game 7 against the Toronto Maple Leafs.
That goes for the race for the Conn Smythe Trophy, too. Every week, new heroes emerge in the race for playoff MVP, while previous front-runners fade to the background.
With the NHL postseason down to its final eight teams, here are the favorites, the players on the cusp and the candidates who have a little more ground to make up in the race.
This list was compiled through conversations with those around the league, including some who may be part of the 18-person panel of Professional Hockey Writers Association members who will eventually vote on the award.
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Ryan S. Clark
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Kristen Shilton
The 2023-24 NHL regular season was an entertaining one, with races for playoff position, point and goal leaders, and major trophies all coming down to the bitter end.
But not every fan base got to enjoy all of it so much.
With eliminations piling up, it’s time to look ahead to the offseason. Clubs that didn’t quite hit the mark this season will use the draft, free agency and trades in an effort to be more competitive in 2024-25.
Read on for a look at what went wrong for each eliminated team, along with a breakdown of its biggest keys this offseason and realistic expectations for next season. Note that more teams will be added to this story as they are eliminated.
Note: Profiles for the Atlantic and Metro teams were written by Kristen Shilton, while Ryan S. Clark analyzed the Central and Pacific teams. Stats are collected from sites such as Natural Stat Trick, Hockey Reference and Evolving Hockey. Projected cap space per Cap Friendly. Dates listed with each team are when the entry was published.
Jump to a team:
ANA | ARI | BUF | CGY
CHI | CBJ | DET | LA
MIN | MTL | NSH | NJ
NYI | OTT | PHI | PIT
SJ | SEA | STL | TB
TOR | VGK | WSH | WPG
The 2024 NFL draft brought record-breaking trends, including six quarterbacks picked in Round 1 for the first time since 1983 and eight offensive tackles taken in Round 1, which ties 2008 for the most ever. Now that more than a week has passed since the draft concluded, our NFL experts have had time to assess the class.
We asked our analysts and insiders to answer some of the draft’s biggest questions. We’ll begin with their favorite picks and the biggest head-scratching selections — some of which don’t involve quarterback Michael Penix Jr. going to the Atlanta Falcons in the top 10. We’ll continue to update this story with a new topic every day this week, including rookie classes our analysts believe will make the biggest impacts, Rookie of the Year picks, fantasy sleepers and bold predictions.
Who were the best picks in this class? Which were the most puzzling? Our experts dive in on the top takeaways:
Jump to a question:
Favorite picks | Biggest head-scratchers
Who was your favorite pick in the entire draft?
Stephania Bell, fantasy football analyst: Cornerback Quinyon Mitchell to the Philadelphia Eagles at No. 22. When a team fills a need with a standout prospect without breaking the bank to do it, it’s a winner. Mitchell is fast and agile and allowed no touchdowns in over 400 coverage snaps last season. He rose many draft boards in recent months … and yet, the Eagles were able to surprise the competition by snagging him here.
Matt Bowen, NFL analyst: Cornerback Mike Sainristil to the Washington Commanders at No. 50. A nickel corner with a playmaking mentality, Sainristil was one of my favorite defensive backs to study. He led Michigan’s defense last season with six interceptions and seven pass breakups. Look for him to play a disruptive role as a rookie in Dan Quinn’s defensive system.
Mike Clay, fantasy football analyst: Wide receiver Ladd McConkey to the Los Angeles Chargers at No. 34. The Chargers moved on from Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, Austin Ekeler and Gerald Everett during the offseason, a foursome responsible for 55% of the team’s targets over the past two seasons. Enter McConkey, who is an excellent fit as a potential Allen replacement in the short-to-intermediate area for quarterback Justin Herbert. Even in a run-heavy offense, McConkey, who came out of Georgia, has a path to massive volume right out of the gate.
Jeremy Fowler, national NFL writer: Wide receiver Malik Nabers to the New York Giants at No. 6. For all the hand-wringing about the Giants’ quarterback outlook, the truth is New York quarterbacks haven’t had a true top-10 receiver since Odell Beckham Jr. Nabers might have the highest ceiling of any offensive player in the draft. Several teams in the top 15 coveted him. Give quarterback Daniel Jones a chance with a guy of this caliber, and see what happens.
Matt Miller, NFL draft analyst: Wide receiver Rome Odunze to the Chicago Bears at No. 9. Let’s give the Bears credit for not overthinking and simply drafting great players. With a rookie quarterback added in Caleb Williams, selecting a go-to receiver for him to learn and grow with was brilliant. It also helps that the two trained together, building chemistry in the pre-draft process. Odunze was my No. 3 overall prospect, which means Chicago drafted two of my top three players in this class.
Eric Moody, fantasy and sports betting analyst: Offensive lineman Graham Barton to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at No. 26. As an ex-offensive lineman, it was a pleasure breaking down Barton’s film. He’s consistent and showcases maximum effort on every play without mental errors. Barton can play center, guard or tackle as a rookie, and I believe he’ll have a superior career to some of the names drafted ahead of him.
Jason Reid, senior Andscape writer: Quarterback Michael Penix Jr. to the Atlanta Falcons at No. 8. I understand everything about the Falcons’ commitment to quarterback Kirk Cousins, the salary cap implications and the potential for strife within the locker room. But if the Falcons are right about Penix, none of that will matter in the long run. If a team believes it has identified a potential transformational player at the most important position in sports, well, it has to go get him. It’s that simple.
Jordan Reid, NFL draft analyst: Edge rusher Dallas Turner to the Minnesota Vikings at No. 17. Minnesota hasn’t drafted an edge rusher in the first two rounds since 2005 (Erasmus James). The team needed to replenish its talent off of the edge after losing Danielle Hunter in free agency. While the team signed Jonathan Greenard and Andrew Van Ginkel during free agency, Turner provides a high upside as a pass-rusher in Brian Flores’ defense. Turner led Alabama with 10 sacks and 45 pressures last season.
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Fantasy projections for the 2024 rookie NFL pass catchers
Check out Mike Clay’s fantasy projections for Marvin Harrison Jr., Malik Nabers, Rome Odunze, Brock Bowers and Brian Thomas Jr.
Aaron Schatz, NFL writer: Wide receiver Adonai Mitchell to the Indianapolis Colts at No. 52. Analytics suggest there is no such thing as a “draft steal” because prospects drop from consensus for good reasons. That being said, Mitchell might have dropped due to off-field concerns, and Colts GM Chris Ballard spoke out against that. This was the No. 5 wide receiver in Playmaker Score but the No. 11 receiver off the board.
Mike Tannenbaum, NFL front office insider: Odunze. He has a legitimate chance to be the best receiver from this draft. Under the motto of “win for today and develop for tomorrow,” the Bears have Allen on a one-year deal, and Odunze has Terrell Owens‘ type of ability. Odunze had 1,640 receiving yards and 13 scores in 2023. This is ideal for Chicago.
Seth Walder, sports analytics writer: Defensive end Laiatu Latu to the Colts at No. 15. Because of medical concerns and the run on offense, the Colts managed to take the edge rusher who led FBS football in pressure rate in each of the past two seasons — yes, ahead of Will Anderson Jr. and Tyree Wilson in 2022 — at No. 15. The Colts might have landed a great one at a premium position in the middle of the first round.
Field Yates, NFL analyst: Odunze. The wideout falling to No. 9 was not a complete surprise, given the anticipated run on quarterbacks early, but it was also not a sure thing. The sixth-highest-rated player on my board could have been the first receiver taken in so many prior drafts, but the presence of Marvin Harrison Jr. and Nabers (the third- and fourth-rated players on my board) made him the third off the board in this class. But don’t be mistaken — Odunze will be an instant impact contributor as one the most polished prospects in the class.
Who was the biggest head-scratching pick of the draft?
Bell: Quarterback Michael Penix Jr. to the Atlanta Falcons at No. 8. It is hard to justify spending this first-round draft capital when the Falcons had declared their nine-figure love for Kirk Cousins weeks earlier. The team did fulfill defensive needs — its most glaring hole entering the draft — in later rounds, but will the strategy of having two QBs capable of starting create less tension in the locker room … or more?
Bowen: Penix. The Falcons built depth behind Cousins with this selection and set up their QB room for the future. However, I saw this as an opportunity for the Falcons to add an impactful defensive player to new coach Raheem Morris’ system, with outside linebacker Dallas Turner and defensive tackle Byron Murphy II still on the board at the time of Atlanta’s pick.
Fowler: Wide receiver Ricky Pearsall to the San Francisco 49ers at No. 31. I’m not about to doubt coach Kyle Shanahan’s eye for offensive skill players, and I love Pearsall as a player. But his place as WR6 in this draft was unexpected. Most teams I spoke to pegged him as a Day 2 pick. Considering the 49ers still have Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk on the roster, bolstering the offensive or defensive line seemed like a sensible play.
Liz Loza, fantasy and sports betting analyst: Tight end Brock Bowers to the Las Vegas Raiders at No. 13. I was stupefied by the Raiders’ selection of Bowers, and it’s not because of his talent level. He’s a potential generational talent with a do-it-all skill set who was expected to come off the board before the first half of the first round. However, Las Vegas spent an early second-round pick on Michael Mayer just a year ago and entered the draft with holes all along the offensive line. In the end, I suppose, the value Bowers presented was too great to pass on.
Moody: Quarterback Bo Nix to the Denver Broncos at No. 12. While he posted prolific numbers at Oregon during his final collegiate season, it’s worth noting that nearly 67% of his passes came within 9 yards of the line of scrimmage. Nix’s selection appears to reflect desperation on the part of a Sean Payton-led Broncos team in need of a quarterback upgrade. I felt like Denver could have traded down and still landed Nix.
Jason Reid: Offensive tackle Tyler Guyton to the Dallas Cowboys at No. 29. Look, I get that the Cowboys had a major need along their offensive line. And the fact that they moved to rebuild it in this draft makes sense. That established, Guyton, while possessing impressive physical tools, is a developmental player. There’s no sugarcoating that.
Jordan Reid: Defensive tackle Ruke Orhorhoro to the Falcons at No. 35. With Jer’Zhan Newton still on the board, it made more sense to take him there. Newton possesses more upside as a rusher and is an ideal interior defender who pairs perfectly with Grady Jarrett. Orhorhoro is unquestionably the better run-defender, but Newton’s combination of explosiveness and disruption would’ve made him the better pick.
Schatz: Penix. Look, I understand the importance of the quarterback position, leading to six quarterbacks chosen in this year’s top 12. You can talk me into the idea that Penix is a better prospect than J.J. McCarthy despite McCarthy doing better in my QBASE projections. But if all goes well, Penix is not going to take a snap in the NFL regular season until he’s 26 years old. The Penix pick isn’t that head-scratching; it’s the Penix pick in conjunction with the Cousins contract.
Walder: Defensive tackle Braden Fiske to the Los Angeles Rams at No. 39. This has little to do with the player and more to do with the circumstances of the pick. The Rams paid an obscene price to move up from No. 52, sacrificing a fifth-round pick and future second-rounder in the process — the most expensive Day 2 overpay in at least the past six drafts and a larger investment than their first-round pick (Jared Verse at No. 19), according to our draft pick valuations. And all this for a player who was at the beginning of his selection range, according to the Draft Day Predictor (in other words, this was a borderline reach).
Yates: Penix. I had a top-of-the-second-round grade on Penix, but quarterbacks always fly off the board earlier than the overall ranks indicate. This is about Atlanta investing in a player who will turn 24 on Wednesday at a position in which only one player will play after paying Cousins $100 million guaranteed in March. One of the great advantages of a quarterback on a rookie contract is the modest cost of his contract, which affords you the ability to spend elsewhere across the roster. The Falcons are not realizing that advantage with Cousins under contract and making $90 million over the first two seasons of Penix’s deal.
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