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Analysts are releasing a wave of delivery estimate downgrades for Tesla as the automaker’s growth story is dissipating – at least for the next few years.

Tesla’s stock has been performing poorly this year. It is one of the worst-performing stocks in the S&P500.

There are several different arguable reasons for that, but the main one appears to be Tesla’s dissipating growth story and the lack of a clear path back to it in the near term.

While Elon Musk likes to say that Tesla is a conglomeration of several different companies operating in a multitude of industries, its performance is almost entirely tied to vehicle sales for now.

Tesla has been growing at a roughly 50% rate per year on that front until last year, when it started to slow down.

It has been an incredible performance, but now the automaker has warned that its growth will slow this year as it is “between two waves of growth” with nothing in its lineup that can significantly contribute to its vehicle sales.

Wall Street analysts are trying to adjust to this new situation for Tesla, but they are having issues coming up with new numbers for this year and Tesla hasn’t said much.

Companies normally give clear guidance, but Tesla is an exception. For 2024, Tesla only noted that its growth rate “may be notably lower than the growth rate achieved in 2023.”

It leaves a lot of room for speculation – and Wall Street loves to speculate.

Tesla had record deliveries of 484,507 vehicles last quarter for a 20% year-over-year growth rate, and it delivered 422,875 in Q1 2023.

Now, analysts are trying to estimate how many vehicles Tesla will deliver in Q1 2024 with a few weeks left in the quarter and it hasn’t been looking good.

As of a few days ago, the consensus was 479,400 vehicles, which is slightly down quarter-to-quarter, but up significantly year-over-year, which would be expected as Tesla added production capacity at Gigafactory Texas and Berlin in 2023 – though it did had issues in Berlin this month with the factory being shut down for a week.

However, several analysts have released lower expectations in the last few days – leading to a gloomier look at the first quarter of the year for the automaker.

Deutsche Bank now estimates 427,000 deliveries in Q1, which would be a massive disappointment for Tesla.

UBS also lowered its estimate from 466,000 to 432,000 units in Q1.

Several other firms are making similar moves over the last few days – often accompanied by downgrades on Tesla’s stock. Most serious estimates now put Tesla’s deliveries between 425,000 and 435,000 units in Q1.

Tesla is expected to release its production and delivery numbers in the first few days of April.

Electrek’s Take

This is a real problem for Tesla. As I previously wrote, I think the Cybertruck was a mistake – not because it’s not a good vehicle, but because the resources spent developing it would have been better spent on a higher volume vehicle for Tesla to shorten the time between the two growth phases.

Now, Tesla is not expected to go back to a significant level of growth until 2027 based on its own estimates:

That’s a long time for what has been described as a “growth stock”.

Now, I honestly don’t know if these new lower estimates make sense for Q1. Tesla has seen lower production at Gigiafactory Shanghai due to the Chinese New Year and the shutdown at Gigafactory Berlin due to the arson attack.

On the demand side, Tesla is offering some significant discounts to sell everything it has, as usual.

Is that enough for a drop of 50,000 to 60,000 units quarter-to-quarter? I don’t know, maybe? What do you think? Let us know in the comment section below.

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Record number of EV chargers installed in the UK last quarter

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Record number of EV chargers installed in the UK last quarter

A record number of public electric vehicle charging stations were installed in the UK this quarter, as charging companies struggle to keep up with the growing number of plugin cars on British roads.

Almost 6,000 new EV chargers were installed in the UK during the first three months of 2024, according to quarterly figures from data company Zapmap and published by the UK’s Department for Transport. Approx. 25% (about 1500) were DC fast chargers.

There were nearly 60,000 public vehicle chargers energized and active in the UK as of April 1st, up nearly 49% compared to 2023 and nearly 2x the number of public chargers available in 2022. Ben Nelmes, CEO of automotive think tank New AutoMotive, says the recent expansion of the UK’s electric vehicle charging infrastructure has brought public charging to areas that had previously been poorly served. This is thanks, in part, to local governments gradually taking advantage of central government grants to put more EV chargers in the ground.

“I think there is a coming together of two things,” Nelmes told The Guardian. “Some of the barriers have been mitigated. And the private sector has woken up to the opportunity.”

Another tidbit from that Guardian article was a survey conducted by the Electric Vehicle Association of some of the UK’s one million plus EV drivers. The survey found that only 6% of EV drivers in England reported experiencing range anxiety either very often or fairly often, while 94% of EV drivers said they had range anxiety occasionally, rarely, or never.

Electrek’s Take

Electric Cab London
The all-electric TX Black Cab: Credit: LEVC

More than half of the more than 15,000 famous London “black cabs” are now electrified (effectively EVs with range-extending ICEs on board), with the majority of London’s largest taxi and minicab services committed to operating fully electrified fleets by 2025.

Let that serve as your gentle reminder that EV sales are down, except at Ford, Cadillac, GMC, Kia, Hyundai, Toyota, Nissan, Honda, Acura, Volvo, Chrysler, etc. …

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FreeWire closes its HQ and lays off just about everyone

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FreeWire closes its HQ and lays off just about everyone

Novel EV fast charging solution FreeWire has announced plans to close its Newark corporate headquarters and lay off virtually all of its employees.

FreeWire is able to place DC fast charging solutions without the need for expensive utility buildouts by using batteries to store energy until it’s needed. The batteries can be effectively “trickle charged” with a standard 110 or 220 AC connection, then “dump” that charge quickly – enabling a 200 kW DCFC experience for EV drivers at a fraction of the cost of conventional DC infrastructure.

It’s a clever system, but despite high-profile mentions from the Biden-Harris Administration and freshly inked deals with national brands like Chevron and General Motors, reports indicate that FreeWire will shutter its primary business at 7200 Gateway Blvd. in Newark, California this June.

In a mass layoff notice, FreeWire said the site’s closing is expected to impact “all” of the company’s 113 on-site employees. That news was picked up by The Layoff Tracker, who posted it on Twitter X this past Friday (below).

FreeWire moved into the 66,000-square-foot facility back in 2022. A press release issued at the time labeled the site FreeWire’s “global headquarters and hub for R&D, testing, and manufacturing.”

A quick scan of the company’s website doesn’t shed any more light on the layoffs. Instead, a press release published May 2nd (the same day that news of layoffs broke) highlights the installation of a FreeWire charging station at a South Bay, California truck depot.

Electrek’s Take

Electrify America EV charging station; via EA.

FreeWire’s announcement comes just day’s after Elon Musk sacked the Tesla employees running the Supercharger network – news that upended the entire EV charging space and seemingly made Electrify America the most important player on the board. One can’t help but wonder whether or not FreeWire might be able to find a rescuer willing to take a flyer on it – but it’s just as likely that the added uncertainty in the EV charging business will make that rather unlikely.

That’s my (non) take, anyway. What’s yours? Scroll on down to the comments and let us know what you make of FreeWire’s apparent collapse, and what you think happens next.

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Trump’s porn star hush-money trial enters week four: Here’s what’s happened so far

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Trump's porn star hush-money trial enters week four: Here’s what’s happened so far

Former US President Donald Trump attends his trial for allegedly covering up hush money payments linked to extramarital affairs, at Manhattan Criminal Court in New York City, on May 2, 2024. 

Doug Mills | Afp | Getty Images

For three weeks, Donald Trump has bounced between the campaign trail and Manhattan Supreme Court, where he faces 34 felony counts for falsifying business records, in order to conceal hush-money payments to a porn star during his previous White House run in 2016.

Wednesdays are Trump’s free day from the proceedings, and the presumptive Republican presidential nominee used his most recent midweek respite to galvanize his base in swing states Wisconsin and Michigan with a very clear message: He’s got a “crooked,” “corrupt,” and “totally conflicted” judge in his “fake trial” in New York.

He also bragged to supporters that he’s seen a bump in the polls thanks to the raft of criminal charges against him.

It has to be a harrowing pace for the 77-year-old, though he has denied multiple reports that he’s fallen asleep repeatedly in court, saying that he is “simply” closing his “beautiful blue eyes” and listening “intensely.”

The historic hush-money trial, which still has another three to five weeks to go, marks the first-ever criminal trial of an ex-U.S. president. It is also the first of four separate criminal cases against him.

As the trial enters its fourth week, here are the highlights thus far.

Fined $9,000 for contempt of court

Former US President Donald Trump sits in the courtroom at Manhattan criminal court in New York, US, on Friday, May 3, 2024. 

Jeenah Moon | Reuters

Judge Juan Merchan doesn’t care if Trump speaks out against him in public, like he did to crowds in Waukesha, Wisconsin and Freeland, Michigan on Wednesday.

Merchan has also given the defendant a pretty long leash with respect to airing grievances with the press and on the campaign trail about Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg, President Joe Biden, and other political foes — so long as the presumptive presidential nominee doesn’t touch the topic of jurors, likely witnesses in his case, and staff and family members of the court and the DA’s office.

The order also does not, despite Trump’s protestation to the contrary, bar him from testifying in his own defense.

Thus far, prosecutors say Trump has breached the fairly narrow gag order fourteen times.

On Tuesday, April 30, the judge held Trump in contempt for repeatedly violating the gag order, warned that he could be put in jail if he again willfully violates court orders, fined Trump the maximum punishment of $1,000 for each of the nine violations, and ordered him to take down the posts from Truth Social and his campaign website.

Prosecutor Chris Conroy called Trump’s statements “corrosive” to the proceedings, but said the government was “not yet seeking jail” because prosecutors “prefer to minimize disruptions.”

The judge has not yet ruled on whether Trump violated the gag order another four times. Separately though, Merchan has, on a few occasions, admonished the former president for intimidating jurors with his conduct in the courtroom, including gesturing and side comments.

Prosecutors dig in

Republican presidential candidate and former U.S. President Donald Trump shouts during a campaign event in Freeland, Michigan, U.S. May 1, 2024. 

Brendan Mcdermid | Reuters

The prosecution’s case hinges on convincing the jury that Trump tried to “corrupt the 2016 election” by making illegal payments — transactions which he subsequently covered up by faking records, in yet another illegal act. The defense contends that Trump was not involved with any of this criminal record-keeping and that he only signed the checks.

The specific payment trail in question relates to money that Trump apparently sent to his then-attorney, Michael Cohen, to reimburse him for paying off porn star Stormy Daniels in 2016, ahead of the election. At the time, Daniels wanted to go public with her story of having sex with Trump years earlier while he was married.

To make its case, the government began by calling to the stand the former CEO of National Enquirer publisher American Media.

David Pecker was integral to the alleged “catch and kill” scheme, which was designed to shape the public narrative around Trump during the campaign by containing damaging information about him.

Pecker testified that his publication would “embellish” negative stories about Trump’s political rivals during the 2016 election, in addition to publishing positive stories about Trump.

Donald Trump’s former attorney Michael Cohen looks on at court during a break in the former presidents’s fraud trial in New York on October 25, 2023.

Timothy A. Clary | AFP | Getty Images

Pecker, who spoke on the stand about his unofficial role as being the “eyes and ears” of the campaign, named Cohen as central to this operation.

American Media paid $150,000 to ex-Playboy model Karen McDougal, another woman who wanted to share her story of an extramarital affair with Trump. Pecker, who said that he purchased the story in order to bury it, said that Trump never reimbursed the company.

The Daniels exchange was different, because the exchange of cash touched Cohen and Trump.

Read more about Trump’s hush money trial

The prosecution called in Trump’s longtime personal secretary Rhona Graff, who testified that Trump had the contact information for McDougal and Daniels saved to his phone. Banker Gary Farro described how he worked with Cohen to get $130,000 into a First Republic bank account — money which was ultimately used to pay Daniels through her attorney in exchange for her silence.

Keith Davidson, the former lawyer for porn star Stormy Daniels and former Playboy model Karen McDougal, took the stand to describe the negotiations that took place in 2016 for the rights to both of their stories.

In his testimony, Davidson described his dealings both with American Media and with Cohen. Calls recorded between Davidson and Cohen were also played for the jury.

Former White House communications director Hope Hicks leaves the hearing room during a break at a closed-door interview with the House Judiciary Committee June 19, 2019 on Capitol Hill in Washington, DC. 

Alex Wong | Getty Images News | Getty Images

And then, on Friday, Hope Hicks took the stand to talk about the infamous “Access Hollywood” tape that threatened Trump’s presidential run a few weeks before election Day. Trump is heard in the tape bragging about sexual misconduct toward women.

The former White House communications aide, whose testimony followed that of either other witnesses, said she was “very concerned” when the Washington Post reached out in October 2016 to seek comment.

“Everyone was just absorbing the shock of it,” said Hicks, who later broke down in tears.

She added that the initial strategy was to “deny, deny, deny.”

Davidson, who brokered the $130,000 hush money payment to Daniels, testified that the tape led to surge of interest in her story of an alleged extramarital affair with Trump.

“Before [the] ‘Access Hollywood’ tape, there was very little interest from what I understand,” Davidson said in court.

As the trial enters week four, Trump is also waiting to see how the U.S. Supreme Court case on presidential immunity pans out.

The judge denied Trump’s request to miss court for a day to hear oral arguments last month about whether the former president is immune from federal prosecution on criminal election interference charges.

CNBC’s Kevin Breuninger and Brian Schwartz contributed to this report.

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